Quebec 2022 Election

[MaxQue]

The latest Léger poll has the CAQ in dominant position. It gets 46% of voting intentions, followed by the PLQ at 18%, PCQ 14%, QS 13% and PQ 8%.

By gender, CAQ voter is more female, PLQ and QS have an even male and female vote, PCQ and PQ are more male. Female vote is CAQ 50% followed by PLQ at 18%. Male vote CAQ 41%, PLQ 18%.

By age CAQ dominates the 55 years and older group with a big 65% followed by Liberals at 17% with the other parties in single digit. In the 35 to 54 year old, CAQ has 31%, PCQ is close at 28% and PLQ 21%.  QS is first among 18 to 34 year old with 33%, CAQ 29%, PLQ 15%, PCQ 11%. If the older folks get out to vote more, CAQ could get more support than polls show.

Francophone voters: CAQ 53, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 10, PLQ 9.
Non francophone: PLQ 48%, PCQ 19%, CAQ 18%, QS 8%.
I don't know if it's a smaller sample blip but was surprised to see PCQ doing better with the non francophone group than francophone.

In the Quebec City metro census region, CAQ eads with 43% with PCQ second at 25%, QS at 16%, PLQ and PQ at 8%.
Greater Montreal census region, CAQ 40, PLQ 25, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 7.
Rest of Quebec, CAQ 53, PCQ 13, PLQ and QS 12, PQ 9.

The PCQ had pretty much endorsed opposing language laws, as government overreach.

[MaxQue]

It honestly would be kinda funny if PP of all people is the one to win over these voters through I dunno...leveraging discontent and his identity maybe?

PP may have a French sounding name - but he is anglo through and through. He is from Alberta and speaks OK French as a second language. There are plenty of people with more English sounding names than PP who speak much better French than he does

I thought he was a Francophone.  His biological parents yes Anglophones but I thought his adopted parents were Francophones.  I don't believe though he has any French ancestry despite his name as Poilievre comes from his adopted parents not biological.

From hearing him, he has good French, but it sounds very learned and with mistakes, so people in Quebec won't think he is a Francophone.

[MaxQue]

I don't know if there is one small anglo party that is more popular than the other. The leader of the Canadian party of Quebec Colin Standish is running in Westmount-Saint-Louis. Bloc Montreal's Balarama Holness is running in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce.

Léger poll will be published tomorrow. As a teaser answers to the question who is best to manage the next covid wave was released.
Legault 49%
Nadeau-Dubois 9%
Duhaime 7%
Anglade 6%
St-Pierre Plamondon 1%
Don't know 28%

Sign it will be worse than usual for PQ? Not that it would a surprise, they struggle big time finding candidates (some PQ seats still don't have candidates and the Greens have more candidates announced).

[MaxQue]

Local PQ candidate announced. It's the federal NDP candidate of 2019, wierdly.

[MaxQue]

In other wierd news from my area, the PQ candidate in Ungava will be Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue from 2011 to 2019.

[MaxQue]

The election is officially called.

Also, it means the Bourget riding is now called Camille-Laurin, as stated in Bill 96.

I suspect the decision to call a riding after the father of Quebec language laws isn't going to be popular here, but it's still an improvement on Ignace Bourget, ultramontanist Bishop who excommunicated everybody who didn't agree with him and was finally forced to retire by the Vatican due to his excessive involvement in Canadian and Quebec politics. I'm sure it won't shock anybody this name was chosen during the Duplessis government.

[MaxQue]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

Maybe QS in Rouyn, Ungava or Sherbrooke.

[MaxQue]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

Maybe QS in Rouyn, Ungava or Sherbrooke.

What about Taschereau. It seems winnable. Jean Lesage is more contested.

Totally forgot about Quebec City. I don't see the CAQ winning in Taschereau at all. QS is also targeting St-François, which includes a part of Sherbrooke, but I don't think QS is going to gain any new seats outside of Montreal, except maybe Ungava (where the winner will be decided by Native/Inuit turnout), unless the CAQ has a disastrous campaign.

[MaxQue]

For me, the usual rule is to not trust Mainstreet, unless another pollster agree with them. At least, they're better than CROP.

[MaxQue]

Chauveau (leader's seat), Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud.

In other news, QS published a poll by EKOS who have them leading by 6 over the CAQ in Liberal-held Verdun.

[MaxQue]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

[MaxQue]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

Is calling an English speaking person in Quebec an 'Angryphone' any different than calling a Francophone a 'frog'?

The Angryphone word is used to describe Quebec anglophones who refuses to engage with Francophones in any way and are perpetually angry at things (the same ones who voted for the Equality Party).

[MaxQue]

On EKOS QS-leaked internal polls, we now have one in Maurice-Richard, which sees them leading the CAQ by 1. PLQ in 4th, which is surprising given they won it last time (it's currently Independent-held, the PLQ incumbent having been kicked out of the party due to allegations of psychological harassment).

[MaxQue]

Was looking at a map of predictions.  Can someone tell me how it is legal in Canada for a riding to not be fully connected in Quebec (see Vaudreuil) when the separating part is not water?

It's an exclave of Vaudreuil-Dorion city.

[MaxQue]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

The Mainstreet crosstabs had it at CAQ 40-30 PCQ in the Québec RMR. They might be overestimating Duhaime but I have a hard time believing that they don't win any seats with that sort of distribution.

Mainstreet has a very jumpy tracker and poor track record. The crosstabs of the big 3000 Leger poll (a much better pollster) has the CAQ leading 44-25 in Quebec City region and 48-29 in Chaudière-Appalaches.

For some reason, Mainstreet shows the PCQ do way better with the 18-35 demographic than any other pollster.

If we take the regional crosstabs, for each party:
CAQ: Best region is Côte-Nord/Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean (55%), worst is Montreal (15%)
PLQ: Best region is Montreal (35%), worst is Quebec City (5%)
QS: Best regions are Montreal and Abitibi-Témiscamingue/Nord-du-Québec (21%), worst is Chaudière-Appalaches (9%)
PCQ: Best region is Chaudière-Appalaches (29%), worst are Abitibi-Témiscamingue/Nord-du-Québec  and Bas-St-Laurent/Gaspésie/Îles-de-la-Madeleine (7%)
PQ: Best region is Bas-St-Laurent/Gaspésie/Îles-de-la-Madeleine (24%), worst is Chaudière-Appalaches (6%)

[MaxQue]

"Why riding polls are sh*t"

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1570384152377151489

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1569423103180111881

Do we think the voters in Sherbrooke have shifted that much in less than a week?

No, but we ought to think Mainstreet is a trash pollster. Quantity over quality.

[MaxQue]

The Segma poll in Sherbrooke is also a St-François poll, where they see QS leading 34-33. While I think St-François is winnable in a good day for QS, I think it would require a larger lead in Sherbrooke.

https://www.fm1077.ca/nouvelles/508004/sondage-la-tribune-fm107-7-mince-avance-de-la-solidaire-dans-sherbrooke (includes age crosstabs for Sherbrooke).

[MaxQue]

Candidate fillings are now closed:

CAQ/PCQ/PQ/QS: 125
PLQ: 124 (missing Matane-Matapédia!)
Green Party: 73
Climat Québec (Martine Ouellet plaything): 54
Démocratie Directe (right-wing direct democracy): 28
Canadian Party (Equality Party nostalgics): 20
Independents: 14
Bloc Montréal (Balarama Holness plaything): 13
Parti marxiste-léniniste: 12
Équipe autonomiste (ADQ nostalgics): 10
L'Union fait la force (left-wing direct democracy): 9
Parti nul (i.e. none of the above): 9
Parti 51 (want to join USA): 5
Alliance pour la famille et la communauté (poor parents are the victim of child services): 2 (Verdun and Laviolette--Saint-Maurice)
Parti culinaire (food nuts): 2 (Laurier-Dorion and Gouin)
Parti humain (vaguely vague, progressive and new age, their website is full of stock pictures in English and they have a slogan that doesn't respect syntax ''Parce que d'autre chose est possible): 2 (Bertrand and Prévost)
Parti accès propriété et équité (housing to be a priority equal to health and education): 1 (Bourassa-Sauvé)
Parti libertarien: 1 (Lac-Saint-Jean)
Union nationale (freemen of the land): 1 (Abitibi-Ouest)

[MaxQue]

The constituency with the most candidates is Verdun, with 11 (CAQ, PLQ, QS, PQ, PCQ, Green, Canadian, Climat Québec, Marxist-Leninist, Nul and Alliance pour la famille et les communautés).

13 constituencies have 5 candidates, 12 of them CAQ/PLQ/QS/PQ/PCQ and 1 (Matane-Matapédia) with CAQ/QS/PQ/PCQ/L'Union fait la force.

[MaxQue]

New Leger poll is CAQ 38, PLQ 16, QS 16, PCQ 16, PQ 13.

[MaxQue]

There will be a full slate of Liberal candidates, the Superior Court is ordering the Election Director to add the Liberal candidate on the ballot, saying it wasn't reasonable to reject the form because it wasn't initialized.

[MaxQue]

There was also another riding poll (they announced they will do 11) in Camille-Laurin (CAQ held seat in Eastern Montreal, PQ leader is running there) which has CAQ 38, PQ 26, QS 19, PLQ 10, PCQ 6.

[MaxQue]

No one knows for sure how many seats the PCQ will win - if any. I'd say it's quite probable they will at least win Chauveau.

On that subject, Mainstreet did a Chauveau riding poll:
CAQ 47, PCQ 34, PQ 8, PLQ 5, QS 4

Also, a La Pinière one:
PLQ 41, CAQ 26, PCQ 12, PQ 11, QS 8

EDIT: Legault suspending his campaign and back in his office to deal with the hurricane, forecasted to hit Iles-de-la-Madeleine dead on.

[MaxQue]

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)

If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities the CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.

And the Greens as insane, irrelevent kooks.

[MaxQue]

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)

If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities the CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.

And the Greens as insane, irrelevent kooks.

Saanich–Gulf Îles de la Madeleine

Oh, no, the Quebec Greens are more Moscow than anything else.