Quebec 2022 Election

[Oryxslayer]

The story of Quebec right now basically seems like a party figured out that if they offered Quebecers nationalism without separatism's baggage, federalists & separatists alike would flock to them & crown them the head of a one-party province.

More that the modern generations were ready to move on from that debate, and had stopped identifying with those labels. So when a party can along that abandoned those labels in a way that clearly left the debate in the past...

[Oryxslayer]

The story of Quebec right now basically seems like a party figured out that if they offered Quebecers nationalism without separatism's baggage, federalists & separatists alike would flock to them & crown them the head of a one-party province.

More that the modern generations were ready to move on from that debate, and had stopped identifying with those labels. So when a party can along that abandoned those labels in a way that clearly left the debate in the past...

And yet at the federal level Quebec is still captive to the old federalist LPC vs separatist BQ. It looked for a while like the NDP could break that mold in Quebec federally but now its back to the same old same old

This ignores the fact that the BQ basically ditched their old platform and tied themselves at the hip to the CAQ and a brand of 'provincial liaison.' So yeah, like Miles said, the BQ are not getting votes because they are separatist, more because they are not the Liberals, and still more culturally viable then the Federal Conservatives - despite the CAQ doing everything in their power to try to make their voters into federal Tories.

It honestly would be kinda funny if PP of all people is the one to win over these voters through I dunno...leveraging discontent and his identity maybe?

[Oryxslayer]

I don't know much about QC-poli, so maybe someone can clear this up for me:


Québec Solidaire clearly defines itself as sovereigntist party, but do they just not emphasize it like the PQ does? Is it a passive thing, like sovereignty is cool I guess, but we're happy to just have more rent control and government programs, or are they actually firm on the idea, but many of their federalist voters don't care because they just want to vote for a left-wing party?

As you can tell by the topline, the sovereignty debate is dead and buried for about 10-15 years now depending upon how you measure it. What killed it was the changing of the guard inside the electorate, and younger (relative, now they are in their 30s and 40s) voters not seeing the point waging their parents losing struggle. This process continues with generational replacement producing an electorate that cares less and less about this issue.

QS defines itself as a sovereigntist party. It's a principle thing. But realistically, it is nowhere near their top issue. The same is true for their voters. Broadly speaking, QS wins university towns and urban centers, but still gets voters outside these cores. They are comparable to a provincial NDP. Like the NDP, they need not compromise their principles since they are not looking to build a electorate that can win power. Which is a shame, cause QS is essentially another post-sovereignty party for mainly but not exclusively Francophones like CAQ. Their electorate bridges their traditional divides because it is an electorate of voters who care about other issues. If they ever do wish to contest power though - which has fallen from the sovereigntist debating parties into the hands of the first post-sovereignty party that showed up - that plank will need to go.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow.  What happened to PQ?  Did they lose more autonomist and sovereignist votes to CAQ since 2018?

Its a whole story and someone can better explain it, but the short version is that the PQ no longer has a reason to exist. Separatism is dead issue electorally and appealing just to the superminority of diehards can't win much in a FPTP environment, much of their strongest partisans are old and naturally leaving the electorate - young separatists are likely to end up in QS for a host of other reasons, and a new popular party has a hold of government and appealing positively  to their former 'soft' voters - so they have no reason to hop ship.

[Oryxslayer]

I understand that this may be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but how "conservative" is the CAQ? For comparison, let's just take the Conservative Party of Canada, or maybe the UK Conservatives.

A better comparison might be Les Republicans in France,  since Quebec looks more towards that system than the UK.

[Oryxslayer]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

[Oryxslayer]

Amazing to see PQ and PLQ which used to combine for a vote share of the high 80s in the 1980s and 1990s now poll together around the mid-20s.

Realignment took a while to trickle down, but the CAQ have for a while been the beneficiaries of the breakdown of polarization over separatism/hard nationalism. Partially this was just generational turnover creating an electorate tired of that debate, partially it is those older voters are now forced to vote within a new system and are following the winds of change.

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

[Oryxslayer]

while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters. 

The people of Rouyn-Noranda - Témiscamingue are millennial cosmopolitan hipsters?

Yes. A large chunk of their vote in the 2018 election came from the polls around the universities, reflecting how the voting population that services said institutions often holds views similar to the student population, who may not be registered to vote in said area. But that of course was only part of their 2018 coalition, as you are alluding to.

[Oryxslayer]

Also:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1574522599149010944?s=20&t=krc2bh...

This is a seat the QS actually could have won based on 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1575431897559310336?s=20&t=I02QPvKGtj0O...

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1575431729258659841?s=20&t=I02QPvKGtj0O...

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1575467548287664129?s=20&t=I02QPvKGtj0O...

Constituency polls are a forever, unreliable, news at 11.

[Oryxslayer]

PQ locking fairly strong in the Madeleines, so maybe they'll have 2 seats not 1. Have to wonder if the storm benefited the incumbent in terms of coverage and prominence in the final days.

[Oryxslayer]

CAQ also currently leading also the Conservatives around Quebec City, usually be sizable margins.

[Oryxslayer]

Jonquière and Fabre called for the CAQ. Both are flips.

[Oryxslayer]

La Peltrie is going back and forth between the CAQ and Conservatives.

[Oryxslayer]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

[Oryxslayer]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

I'm also surprised they're holding both Quebec City seats and Sherbrooke

The pre-election models I feel seem to have overestimated how universal the CAQ gains would be, rather than simply cleaning up the opposition vote and straggler seats in between the cities.

Hull also kinda a three-way between the CAQ, Libs, and QS, that certainly is a surprise.

[Oryxslayer]

More flips: CAQ projected to win Vaudreuil, Laval-des-Rapides, René-Lévesque, Duplessis, Marie-Victorin.

Lévesque projected to hold Chauveau for the CAQ.

[Oryxslayer]

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue called for CAQ: first QS incumbent to lose ever.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives speech right now seems like they know the final result will be a big 0.

[Oryxslayer]

QS projected to gain Maurice-Richard.

Fabre is uncalled as a CAQ gain, since the Liberals have pulled ahead. Frankly, almost all the Laval seats are tight and shouldn't have been called fast.

[Oryxslayer]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

Further evidence that it is the post-sovereigntist parties who are the future of politics here, compared to the declining parties of the sovereignty era. Net +1 and second place popular vote is certainly rosy when compared to PQ and PLQ's losses.

[Oryxslayer]

Vaudreuil uncalled as a CAQ gain since the PLQ caught up in the late count. 

[Oryxslayer]

The Gaspé Peninsula (excluding Matane-Matapédia of course) seats are now getting called as CAQ gains  as the final polls report  in.

[Oryxslayer]

Here you guys go:



Well, first off a lot of these second place finishes were with around 14% to the CAQs 40-50%, so not too much can be inferred. This gap is why there are a few oddities like random QS leads.

However, there is a clear geographic divide. PQ has the lead when we exclude the CAQ. Their long-lost strongholds around Montreal show up un the map, as well as their more recently lost strongholds in the periphery.

Then come the Liberals who do absolutely horrible given the context of the map. The PLQ always had bad geography with their vote concentrated in Montreal. This geographic disadvantage did become a advantage last night as the party has a relatively high floor of seats, but it is a disadvantage province-wide. Outside the expected Montreal, Laval, Vaudreuil, and Outaouais, the Liberals only have the advantage in a handful of Montreal suburban seats.

QS has a very interesting distribution. There's the Montreal Plateau seats the party actually won, along with Verdun. City centers like Trois-Rivières and the heart of Quebec City. The First Nations of Ungava. The defeated incumbent in Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue. Then there is the Estrie - a lot of leads here is just because of how Sherbrooke is gerrymandered, but it also carries over to unrelated seats like Granby.

The Conservatives lead in the greater Quebec City and central rural regions. Basically the places where the Federal Conservatives could actually have won under the 2019/2021 coalitions.

[Oryxslayer]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.