Quebec 2022 Election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why am I not surprised the leader of the Conservatives is a radio host?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Amazing to see PQ and PLQ which used to combine for a vote share of the high 80s in the 1980s and 1990s now poll together around the mid-20s.

Realignment took a while to trickle down, but the CAQ have for a while been the beneficiaries of the breakdown of polarization over separatism/hard nationalism. Partially this was just generational turnover creating an electorate tired of that debate, partially it is those older voters are now forced to vote within a new system and are following the winds of change.

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

Combined vote share of PQ+PLQ:
1981: 95.33%
1985: 93.68%
1989: 90.11%
1994: 89.15%
1998: 86.42%
2003: 79.23%
2007: 61.43%
2008: 77.25%
2012: 63.15%
2014: 66.90%
2018: 41.88%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have constituency polls ever been very accurate?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone should make a map of which non-CAQ party won the most votes in each riding. That's got to be more revealing of Québec's political divisions than the map we got.

Struggling to find a blank map. Otherwise, I'd be making such a map right now.