Quebec 2022 Election

[VPH]

At this point my guess is that the PCQ only wins Duhaime's seat, but they're definitely going to be a close-ish (within 10% and in second) in a fair number of Quebec City area seats.

It's also going to be interesting to see how much the PCQ wins in the heavily Greek parts of Laval. Those neighborhoods were among the Montreal area's strongest for the PPC and for the PCQ last election. Even over 20 years ago, the Canadian Alliance put up stronger numbers in the majority Greek polls. Not sure why exactly, but that population is uniquely right-wing.

[VPH]

Is PCQ running any candidates with connections to the Jewish community in parts of Montreal where it's relevant?

Yes, they have a few. Bonnie Feigenbaum, who is pretty well-connected in the community, is running in D’Arcy McGee. She spent a long time in the Hampstead (heavily Jewish on-island suburb) municipal government and was formerly a Liberal. She is also a businesswoman and teaches at a local college. Not remotely a winnable seat for the PCQ but nevertheless a good candidate.

[VPH]

The age skew is less severe in the Maurice Richard poll, in fact, CAQ and QS are essentially tied with 50-64s, but it still exists, which makes me think the CAQ will win it. Funny to see the absolute crash in the PLQ vote though; not even winning the Anglo vote.

And if Anglo turnout is down too, this spells doom for the PLQ in a whole lot of ridings. Not sure where they go from here... I had hoped that Anglade would be a good leader but that didn't pan out.

[VPH]

Keep in mind that this doesn't necessarily say much about the result Monday, but the lowest turnout constituencies so far are:

Ungava, far Northern Quebec, former NDP MP Christine Moore is the PQ candidate, total turnout last election was a measly 30.89% - 9.34%
D'Arcy-McGee, usually a PLQ fortress, one of the most Anglophone in the province, one riding poll showed the PLQ at a very low 40-some % - 12.11%
Jeanne-Mance-Viger, safe PLQ, pretty heavily Italian Saint Leonard - 13.36%
Acadie, safe PLQ, lots of immigrants especially from the MENA region - 13.89%
Saint-Laurent, see above, represented by Marwah Rizqy who I think is one of the PLQ's vanishingly few elected rising stars, 14.23%
Westmount-Saint Louis, safe PLQ, wealthy Anglo Westmount into Downtown Montreal -  15.23%
Robert-Baldwin, safe PLQ, heavily Anglo DDO and Roxboro (on island suburbs), was represented by former finance minister Carlos Leitão - 15.57%
Viau, likely PLQ, a diverse working-class area around St. Michel, QS could make a play for this if they're having a great night - 15.88%
Bourassa-Sauvé, safe PLQ, MTL-Nord, impoverished, heavily Haitian and African - 16.00%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, safe PLQ, diverse in terms of ethnicity and income but primarily Anglo/Allo - 16.27%

Notably, many on the first list already experienced significant turnout dips from 2014 to 2018. If turnout further declines here, it would be a bad sign for closer seats where the PLQ depends on Anglophone and Allophone voters.


Meanwhile, the highest turnout seats are almost all in the traditionally right-leaning Quebec City region, which has pretty strong competition between PCQ and CAQ. The kind of radio stations (colloquially known as radio poubelle or "trash radio") Duhaime used to be on have a large audience around here. There's also some resentment against Montreal lefties. Nonetheless, it would take a large haul to beat out CAQ, who has established dominance in the region.

Louis-Hébert, safe CAQ, suburbs of Quebec City - 41.09%
Lévis, probably safe CAQ, Quebec City suburb where the proposed troisième lien bridge from Quebec City would go to - 35.72%
Chaveau, a possible PCQ pickup but I would guess leaning CAQ right now, exurbs and rural areas northwest of Quebec, Eric Duhaime's chosen seat - 33.94%
Vanier-Les Rivières, likely bordering on safe CAQ, Quebec City suburbs - 33.43%
Charlesbourg, likely CAQ, northern suburbs of Quebec City - 33.18%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, safe CAQ, south of Lévis - 32.25%
Joliette, tossup between CAQ and PQ, not in the Quebec region but in Lanaudière, recently represented by the popular Véronique Hivon (actually gained 2% on 2014 even as the PQ collapsed provincewide) who is not running again - 32.02%
Montmorency, safe CAQ, back to the Quebec City suburbs for this one - 31.87%
Jean-Talon, safe CAQ, Quebec City seat, used to be the PLQ's strongest seat in the area and they won it in 2018 only to lose in a late 2019 byelection - 31.28%
La Prairie, safe CAQ, well-off Francophone Montreal exurbs, Health Minister Christian Dubé's seat - 31.09%

[VPH]

Joliette, tossup between CAQ and PQ, not in the Quebec region but in Lanaudière, recently represented by the popular Véronique Hivon (actually gained 2% on 2014 even as the PQ collapsed provincewide) who is not running again - 32.02%

It may be a technical tossup based on '18 numbers; but given that it may have been more of a Hivon than a PQ riding per se, I'm wondering how much of a tossup it *really* is.  (And if the PQ's enjoying a leadership-driven polling bump, I have a feeling that it might be more "distributed" throughout the province than the sort that arbitrarily benefits otherwise-possible-CAQ-sitting-duck open seats like this one)

That might scramble a few seats too. For instance, a leader bump would almost certainly mean flipping back Camille-Laurin (Bourget) and QS' dropping out there probably helps.

[VPH]

PCQ not in the lead anywhere, but hot on CAQ's tail in Beauce-Nord and gaining ground in Beauce-Sud

[VPH]

PSPP trailing too, depite PQ being (distantly) second in the overall popular vote.

I went back and forth on this race. Ended up thinking QS voters would break for the PQ.

[VPH]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

I'm also surprised they're holding both Quebec City seats and Sherbrooke

[VPH]

Fifth place finishes for the PLQ in numerous seats they won in 2014.

[VPH]

CAQ's immigration comments definitely hurt them in the Montreal region. They're underperforming expectations. Seats like Marquette and Rosemont were supposed to be closer than they are. Anjou Louis-Riel and Laporte and Mille-Îles were supposed to be easy pickups and the PLQ are leading all three (although this can change).

[VPH]

Duhaime's speech last night made it seem like he plans to stick around for the long haul, but it will be difficult to make a difference and grow in support without any MNAs. To come within about 1% of two separate seats has got to hurt for them.

Anglade's future should also be in doubt imo. She's not been a particularly strong leader (disappointing because I had hope) but no matter who leads the PLQ, they're going to have a mighty tough time building a larger coalition while not bleeding Anglophone and immigrant support.

[VPH]

Duhaime's speech last night made it seem like he plans to stick around for the long haul, but it will be difficult to make a difference and grow in support without any MNAs. To come within about 1% of two separate seats has got to hurt for them.

Anglade's future should also be in doubt imo. She's not been a particularly strong leader (disappointing because I had hope) but no matter who leads the PLQ, they're going to have a mighty tough time building a larger coalition while not bleeding Anglophone and immigrant support.

If I may be contrarian here, there's an argument to be had that *all* of the existing leaders have earned the right to stick around.  Even Anglade who, in a doubtlessly thankless reduced-circumstance situation, had something of a graceful finish anyway--I mean, let's accept that it may take a fair bit of work for the Libs to truly repatriate natural-governing-party status, and it actually might be a good, cathartic thing that they confronted this kind of bottoming-out circumstance.  (Of course, it helps that QC political ergonomics are such that the Libs have such a high and resilient floor--but much like the NDP in Ontario, relative seat totals can go a long way.)

Not to draw too much of an equivalency but I thought that the Ontario Liberals' implosion in 2018 would be a good "reset" for the party (and maybe it still will be in the long run) but 2022 made that look iffy. Perhaps the PLQ will remain stuck in a rut for a while, even though they've bottomed out.