Quebec 2022 Election

[JimJamUK]

Apologies if it’s already been mentioned and I skimmed over it, but what specific districts do the PCQ have the best chance of winning?

[MaxQue]

Chauveau (leader's seat), Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud.

In other news, QS published a poll by EKOS who have them leading by 6 over the CAQ in Liberal-held Verdun.

[Oryxslayer]

I understand that this may be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but how "conservative" is the CAQ? For comparison, let's just take the Conservative Party of Canada, or maybe the UK Conservatives.

A better comparison might be Les Republicans in France,  since Quebec looks more towards that system than the UK.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chauveau (leader's seat), Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud.

In other news, QS published a poll by EKOS who have them leading by 6 over the CAQ in Liberal-held Verdun.

Looking under the hood of the poll, and the QS has a massive lead with the under 50s, but are in single digits with seniors. Considering turnout advantages, I'd say the QS is probably still in third in the riding.

[Benjamin Frank]

Apologies if it’s already been mentioned and I skimmed over it, but what specific districts do the PCQ have the best chance of winning?

I don't know if this has been mentioned already, but the PCQ seems to be focusing on the english speaking vote more than I would have thought. In the debate yesterday, if not earlier, the PCQ came out against Bill 96 with Éric Duhaime showing a sign just saying 'no' (I.E in English only.)

I don't know if this was mentioned either before, but the PCQ is running a fairly high profile candidate in the Montreal riding of D'Arcy McGee.

Longtime Liberal Bonnie Feigenbaum joins Quebec Conservatives
https://globalnews.ca/news/9054060/liberal-bonnie-feigenbaum-joins-quebec-conservatives/

Voters in the D’Arcy McGee riding will see a familiar name on the ballot this fall, but beside a different party. Former Hampstead city councillor and longtime Liberal Bonnie Feigenbaum is running for the Conservative Party of Quebec.

The 53-year-old candidate says the Liberals’ initial support for Bill 96 was the final straw.

“We can’t trust the Liberals. They tell us one thing and then once they were in power, they go, ‘Sorry, got to do something else, you have to understand,'” said Feigenbaum.

D'Arcy McGee was held by Equality Party Leader Rober Libman from 1989-1994, so this riding has a past history of voting for English protesters.

[DL]

I understand that this may be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but how "conservative" is the CAQ? For comparison, let's just take the Conservative Party of Canada, or maybe the UK Conservatives.

Its a good question, one could argue that the supposedly more centre-left Quebec Liberals were much more rightwing when they were last in power than the CAQ has been.

[MaxQue]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

[Benjamin Frank]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

Is calling an English speaking person in Quebec an 'Angryphone' any different than calling a Francophone a 'frog'?

[MaxQue]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

Is calling an English speaking person in Quebec an 'Angryphone' any different than calling a Francophone a 'frog'?

The Angryphone word is used to describe Quebec anglophones who refuses to engage with Francophones in any way and are perpetually angry at things (the same ones who voted for the Equality Party).

[njwes]

In fairness, they may have some legitimate reasons to be angry

[Benjamin Frank]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

Is calling an English speaking person in Quebec an 'Angryphone' any different than calling a Francophone a 'frog'?

The Angryphone word is used to describe Quebec anglophones who refuses to engage with Francophones in any way and are perpetually angry at things (the same ones who voted for the Equality Party).

Nonsense, it's a way to dismiss the legitimate concerns of an entire group of people through dehumanizing them.

What 'engagement' is there other than the Francohpones saying 'what additional rights that you have can we take away now?"

Using the term 'angryphone' should be as unacceptable here as using the term 'frog' to describe Quebecers or using the N- word.

[adma]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

Is calling an English speaking person in Quebec an 'Angryphone' any different than calling a Francophone a 'frog'?

The Angryphone word is used to describe Quebec anglophones who refuses to engage with Francophones in any way and are perpetually angry at things (the same ones who voted for the Equality Party).

Nonsense, it's a way to dismiss the legitimate concerns of an entire group of people through dehumanizing them.

What 'engagement' is there other than the Francohpones saying 'what additional rights that you have can we take away now?"

Using the term 'angryphone' should be as unacceptable here as using the term 'frog' to describe Quebecers or using the N- word.

Actually, I reckon that even most Anglo Quebecers (at least those with a more-than-significant "Laurentian Elite" element to their character) would have no problem with using the term "Angryphone" to describe a certain unlikeable sect within their midst.  Remember: "the same ones who voted for the Equality Party" does *not* equate with "they all vote for the Equality Party"--we're talking more about the "Nigel Farage" wing of the Anglo community.  The marginal "CFRA-listening crank" pendant to Quebec City's talk-radio crowd.  Heck, with that in mind, they might be the sort who'd desert the QC Libs on account of their having a female POC leader.  

And let's watch it here, lest this thread get derailed by tedious "Anglo rights" discussions.

[adma]

If anyone's going to use the term "Angryphones", it's Anglophones to describe those from within whom they're embarrassed by.

[MaxQue]

On EKOS QS-leaked internal polls, we now have one in Maurice-Richard, which sees them leading the CAQ by 1. PLQ in 4th, which is surprising given they won it last time (it's currently Independent-held, the PLQ incumbent having been kicked out of the party due to allegations of psychological harassment).

[Hatman 🍁]

The age skew is less severe in the Maurice Richard poll, in fact, CAQ and QS are essentially tied with 50-64s, but it still exists, which makes me think the CAQ will win it. Funny to see the absolute crash in the PLQ vote though; not even winning the Anglo vote.

[toaster]

I understand that this may be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but how "conservative" is the CAQ? For comparison, let's just take the Conservative Party of Canada, or maybe the UK Conservatives.

Its a good question, one could argue that the supposedly more centre-left Quebec Liberals were much more rightwing when they were last in power than the CAQ has been.

I find it interseting anytime anyone refers to Quebec politic parties as "much more rightwing" or "far right" or "how conservative" the party is.  This is a province where University tuition is about 3k per year, daycare is $10 per day, they have a universal pharmacare program, some of the highest redistribution of wealth in the world (highest taxes), government paid gender reassignment, forever lasting rent control attached to the unit,.. all things the Liberals and CAQ support btw..  Your idea of conservatism does not fit in Quebec.

[VPH]

The age skew is less severe in the Maurice Richard poll, in fact, CAQ and QS are essentially tied with 50-64s, but it still exists, which makes me think the CAQ will win it. Funny to see the absolute crash in the PLQ vote though; not even winning the Anglo vote.

And if Anglo turnout is down too, this spells doom for the PLQ in a whole lot of ridings. Not sure where they go from here... I had hoped that Anglade would be a good leader but that didn't pan out.

[Benjamin Frank]

It's the Francophone nationalists/zenophobes who are the angriest/most bigoted. Look at Premier Legault having to apologize yesterday for referring to immigrants as 'bringing violence to Quebec.'

Quebec politics has for a long time been about federalism vs. separatism.  I disagee with Eric Duhaime on most things, but to the degree that he brings a debate in Francohpone Quebec on collectivism vs. individualism, that is a good thing.

[mileslunn]

I understand that this may be a bit of an apples to oranges comparison, but how "conservative" is the CAQ? For comparison, let's just take the Conservative Party of Canada, or maybe the UK Conservatives.

Its a good question, one could argue that the supposedly more centre-left Quebec Liberals were much more rightwing when they were last in power than the CAQ has been.

I find it interseting anytime anyone refers to Quebec politic parties as "much more rightwing" or "far right" or "how conservative" the party is.  This is a province where University tuition is about 3k per year, daycare is $10 per day, they have a universal pharmacare program, some of the highest redistribution of wealth in the world (highest taxes), government paid gender reassignment, forever lasting rent control attached to the unit,.. all things the Liberals and CAQ support btw..  Your idea of conservatism does not fit in Quebec.

I think its all relative and parties left or right tend to only move the needle so much so those things you mention more a legacy of all the governments they have had over the years.  Saskatchewan in recent years has had mostly right wing governments, yet on crown corporations, they still have more of them than any other province and more than most European countries do too.  But again that is a legacy of CCF/NDP once being dominant party. 

Yes occasionally you get types like Margaret Thatcher who do radically change things, but politicians like that are rare.  I agree CAQ is not right wing in sense most think in English speaking world, but in French speaking world its very similar to les Republicains in France who are generally labelled as centre-right.  And its every bit as conservative as the centre-right parties in Nordic Countries who no matter who is in government have very high taxes and large welfare state.

[DL]

In what way is CAQ any different ideologically from Macron's party in France? These days the main thing that sets Les Republicains apart from LREM is that LR is now very socially conservative - not exactly what I associate CAQ with

[mileslunn]

In what way is CAQ any different ideologically from Macron's party in France? These days the main thing that sets Les Republicains apart from LREM is that LR is now very socially conservative - not exactly what I associate CAQ with

True, I am more thinking about past as parties change under leaders.  Although CAQ is culturally conservative but not socially conservative, see Bill 21 which is a fairly right wing idea.  However CAQ ideologically is somewhat inconsistent.

[Poirot]

A poll of 600 voters in Montreal and Laval for the Montreal Gazette done by Léger.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/liberal-support-fading-in-montreal-ahead-of-quebec-election-poll

PLQ is at 28% (in 2018 it was 41%)
CAQ 24
QS 19
PCQ 13
PQ 7, Canadian Party 3, Green party 3, Bloc Montreal 2

The PDF on Léger's website has results for subgroups but for regions it can be less than 100 respondents so there could be less reliabiity.

QS leads the 18-34 of age with 41% followed by PLQ at 20%. In the over 55, PLQ gets 31% to CAQ 30%.

By mother tongue, CAQ leads the French with 40% followed by QS at 27%.
English: PLQ 53%, PCQ 14%
Other: PLQ 40%, PCQ 22%

[Poirot]

Two Segma riding polls showing CAQ dominating in regions. It gives CAQ 59% in Chicoutimi and 56% in Jonquière.

My local PLQ candidate stopped by while I was outside and asked for my signature to get the number of signatures needed to be allowed to run. I think there are only five days left to do this. So today I helped democracy.

[mileslunn]

Wonder if Pontiac could be a PCQ surprise?  I know federally Tories won several polls there despite losing riding badly thanks to getting clobbered in the Gatineau portion.  It is largely Anglophone but in many ways more like Renfrew County in voting patterns than your typical Anglophone riding.

Beauce seems possible as that area is quite libertarian so running on small government is a big winner there even if a vote loser in much of Quebec.

[Poirot]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.