Quebec 2022 Election

[Benjamin Frank]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

[MaxQue]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

Maybe QS in Rouyn, Ungava or Sherbrooke.

[RogueBeaver]

Pascal Bérubé in Matane-Matapédia will be the PQ's sole member at this rate.

[Poirot]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

Maybe QS in Rouyn, Ungava or Sherbrooke.

What about Taschereau. It seems winnable. Jean Lesage is more contested.

[MaxQue]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

Maybe QS in Rouyn, Ungava or Sherbrooke.

What about Taschereau. It seems winnable. Jean Lesage is more contested.

Totally forgot about Quebec City. I don't see the CAQ winning in Taschereau at all. QS is also targeting St-François, which includes a part of Sherbrooke, but I don't think QS is going to gain any new seats outside of Montreal, except maybe Ungava (where the winner will be decided by Native/Inuit turnout), unless the CAQ has a disastrous campaign.

[Poirot]

In the Léger poll one question is if it's possible or not that people would vote for each party.  This can give a ceiling for each party.

53% of people said it's possible they vote CAQ, 31% QS, 28% PLQ, 26% PQ and 24% PCQ.

There are details by age. language and regions.
Francophones say at 63% it's possible they vote CAQ, 33% QS, 18% PLQ, 32% PQ, 21% PCQ.
Non francophones (small sample): 26 CAQ, 24 QS, 59 PLQ, 11 PQ, 35 PCQ.

Since the poll has PLQ voting intentions among non francophones at 53% there doesn't seem much room to grow in that traditional group of support.

There is also a question on likelyhood of casting a ballot. By party vote PLQ voters are 10% under other party voters to cclaim they are certain to go vote.

Last election the turnout was 66,45%. Since the election doesn's seem close maybe turnout will drop. In Ontario last election had a very low turnout. If we have a low turnout does it help the government or opposition. Is it CAQ supporters will be complacent or opposition being demotivated. If the most important factor is age (older go vote) it helps CAQ since it dominates the older age group.

[Poirot]

I was looking at numbers from different polling firms. If differences are the same, Mainstreet could have PLQ and PCQ higher than Léger and QS, PQ lower. I posted them at the time to compare if differences remain the same (some firm usually having one party lower or higher)

It's almost all true, three out of four. PLQ the same, PCQ higher, QS and PQ lower.

Mainstreet August 25-28

CAQ 38.1
PLQ 17.4
QS 12.1
PCQ 21.5
PQ 7
Other 3.9

PCQ above 20%, I think Mainstreet had them over 20% in the Spring. They would lead among 18-34 with 31.9 followed by QS 23.5. Léger had QS in front among the age group. In the Quebec City census area, CAQ leads with 43.5 to PCQ 32.6.

Franco: CAQ 43, PCQ 22, QS 13.5, PLQ 11. PQ 8, Other 1.9
Non Franco: PLQ 41, PCQ 19, CAQ 18, QS 6.5, PQ 3, Other 11.6%

[mileslunn]

In the Léger poll one question is if it's possible or not that people would vote for each party.  This can give a ceiling for each party.

53% of people said it's possible they vote CAQ, 31% QS, 28% PLQ, 26% PQ and 24% PCQ.

There are details by age. language and regions.
Francophones say at 63% it's possible they vote CAQ, 33% QS, 18% PLQ, 32% PQ, 21% PCQ.
Non francophones (small sample): 26 CAQ, 24 QS, 59 PLQ, 11 PQ, 35 PCQ.

Since the poll has PLQ voting intentions among non francophones at 53% there doesn't seem much room to grow in that traditional group of support.

There is also a question on likelyhood of casting a ballot. By party vote PLQ voters are 10% under other party voters to cclaim they are certain to go vote.

Last election the turnout was 66,45%. Since the election doesn's seem close maybe turnout will drop. In Ontario last election had a very low turnout. If we have a low turnout does it help the government or opposition. Is it CAQ supporters will be complacent or opposition being demotivated. If the most important factor is age (older go vote) it helps CAQ since it dominates the older age group.

Ceilings interesting.  For CAQ obvious high and while probably will win.  For Quebec Solidaire interesting as while not enough to win shows them have long run potential especially as strong with younger voters.  PQ and PLQ are devastating as both well below what party usually gets.  It basically means even if run a picture perfect campaign, at best both while have a reasonable size opposition but far from being able to form government.  PCQ suggests party has its limits and their best hope is hope CAQ flounders and gets minority and they can have enough concentrated vote they form balance of power, but really I don't see CAQ not winning a majority nor do I see PCQ winning more than a handful of seats, probably none.

[VPH]

At this point my guess is that the PCQ only wins Duhaime's seat, but they're definitely going to be a close-ish (within 10% and in second) in a fair number of Quebec City area seats.

It's also going to be interesting to see how much the PCQ wins in the heavily Greek parts of Laval. Those neighborhoods were among the Montreal area's strongest for the PPC and for the PCQ last election. Even over 20 years ago, the Canadian Alliance put up stronger numbers in the majority Greek polls. Not sure why exactly, but that population is uniquely right-wing.

[Estrella]

Is PCQ running any candidates with connections to the Jewish community in parts of Montreal where it's relevant?

[adma]

PCQ above 20%, I think Mainstreet had them over 20% in the Spring. They would lead among 18-34 with 31.9 followed by QS 23.5. Léger had QS in front among the age group. In the Quebec City census area, CAQ leads with 43.5 to PCQ 32.6.

Seems like an echo effect from the broader reported "Poilievremania" among the 18-34s.

[DL]

It's also going to be interesting to see how much the PCQ wins in the heavily Greek parts of Laval. Those neighborhoods were among the Montreal area's strongest for the PPC and for the PCQ last election. Even over 20 years ago, the Canadian Alliance put up stronger numbers in the majority Greek polls. Not sure why exactly, but that population is uniquely right-wing.

That is odd, we certainly don't see that in the Greek community in Toronto. If anything people of Greek descent tend to be more NDP leaning - FWIW I had heard that a lot of Greeks came to Toronto in the late 60s/early 70s partly to get away from the fascist dictatorship - and none other than Andreas Papandreou lived in Toronto during that period and taught at York University! 

[VPH]

Is PCQ running any candidates with connections to the Jewish community in parts of Montreal where it's relevant?

Yes, they have a few. Bonnie Feigenbaum, who is pretty well-connected in the community, is running in D’Arcy McGee. She spent a long time in the Hampstead (heavily Jewish on-island suburb) municipal government and was formerly a Liberal. She is also a businesswoman and teaches at a local college. Not remotely a winnable seat for the PCQ but nevertheless a good candidate.

[mileslunn]

Pontiac is only Anglophone seat the PCQ has an outside chance of winning, but even that a long shot.  It is predominately Anglophone so no way goes PLQ.  But it did Conservative ten years ago under Lawrence Cannon federally and even in most recent federal election, Conservatives won several predominately Anglophone communities in Pontiac region like Shawville.  Only lost riding badly as includes large section in Gatineau area where they got slaughtered.  So because its Anglophone, rural and somewhat more conservative than the more Anglophone areas in Montreal, possible albeit unlikely.  PCQ won't win in Montreal.  Parties on right generally don't win ridings in large urban centres anymore.  Vancouver-False Creek probably last example of this and even it has now flipped to NDP provincially.  In UK you have some like Cities of London & Westminster but good chance it flips next election too.

[Poirot]

PCQ above 20%, I think Mainstreet had them over 20% in the Spring. They would lead among 18-34 with 31.9 followed by QS 23.5. Léger had QS in front among the age group. In the Quebec City census area, CAQ leads with 43.5 to PCQ 32.6.

Seems like an echo effect from the broader reported "Poilievremania" among the 18-24s.

Or maybe an anomaly. I don't know how much to trust Mainstreet. It polls every day but it bounces. Today the Conservatives are in third place with 17.7%. For subgroups I guess it's more normal to jump around because of smaller sample but in the 18-34 age group QS is now first at 26% and PCQ is 25.7%. Léger has PCQ at 16% in that age group, third place, with QS first at 36%. Differences with the Léger poll are smaller today than yesterday.

[MaxQue]

For me, the usual rule is to not trust Mainstreet, unless another pollster agree with them. At least, they're better than CROP.

[Poirot]

First days of the campaign mainly focused on how to fight the cost of living and tax cuts.

PLQ published a platform before summer so policies are not a surprise. It wants to lower by 1.5% the tax rate of the two first income brackets (so people making up to about 90,000$). Increase tax on the highest income.
It wants to remove the proncial sales tax on basic necessity products. Give an allowance of $2,000 to people over 70 to help them stay at home. A temporary freeze on electricity rate and removal of provincial sales tax on up to $4,000 of electricity bill. Increase the solidarity tax credit for low income people.
The party has a platform in English on their page: https://plq.org/en/

CAQ wants to reduce by 1% the rate of the first two income brackets. It wants to use 40% of the revenues that would have gone to the Generations Fund, a fund created to decrease the weight of the debt. In December if reelected it will send money to people, 600$ to those making less than 50,000$ and 400$ to those making between 50,000 and 100,000$. In the Spring money sent was 500$ for people declaring less than 100,000 of income.
They want to increse an aid for people over 70.  If you make less than 24,000$  you get 2,000$ and the amount decrease until you earn 64,000$. Other things might come later since they have not published a full platform.

PCQ has a platform in English: https://www.conservative.quebec/platform
It wants to reduce the tax rate of the first two income tax brackets by 2%. Increase the personal exemption to 20,000$ (it's almost 16,000 now). It wants to suspend the provincial gas tax. End taxation on the resale of used consumer goods.

QS will take all revenues that should go to the Generations Fund and use it to fight climate change and the quality of life of seniors. It wants to remove temporarily the provincial sales tax on many products and services like clothing, restaurant meals, repair service, until inflation comes down to 3%. No tax suspension for gas. No income tax cut.

PQ will not cut income tax.

[RogueBeaver]

Security concerns are becoming an issue for all parties: SQ gave PSPP bulletproof vests, Grit Marwah Rizqy received death threats, Grit Enrico Ciccone's campaign office was vandalized, PCQ volunteers were assaulted. All party leaders have bigger protective details than previously. Policy-wise, Economy Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon said he is open to the Saguenay LNG project and is supposedly negotiating with Ottawa to resume work after the election, while Legault insists the project is still dead.

PLQ has lost several candidates so far and is the only party without a full slate, currently 109 and both they and the PQ have had to impress staffers.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet is doing daily tracking polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Quebec_general_election

The PCQ has dropped nearly five points.

[toaster]

Pontiac is only Anglophone seat the PCQ has an outside chance of winning, but even that a long shot.  It is predominately Anglophone so no way goes PLQ.  But it did Conservative ten years ago under Lawrence Cannon federally and even in most recent federal election, Conservatives won several predominately Anglophone communities in Pontiac region like Shawville.  Only lost riding badly as includes large section in Gatineau area where they got slaughtered.  So because its Anglophone, rural and somewhat more conservative than the more Anglophone areas in Montreal, possible albeit unlikely.  PCQ won't win in Montreal.  Parties on right generally don't win ridings in large urban centres anymore.  Vancouver-False Creek probably last example of this and even it has now flipped to NDP provincially.  In UK you have some like Cities of London & Westminster but good chance it flips next election too.

Huh?  Anglophones in Quebec overwhelming vote Liberal.  Just like Francophones in Ontario vote Liberal.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Pontiac is only Anglophone seat the PCQ has an outside chance of winning, but even that a long shot.  It is predominately Anglophone so no way goes PLQ.  But it did Conservative ten years ago under Lawrence Cannon federally and even in most recent federal election, Conservatives won several predominately Anglophone communities in Pontiac region like Shawville.  Only lost riding badly as includes large section in Gatineau area where they got slaughtered.  So because its Anglophone, rural and somewhat more conservative than the more Anglophone areas in Montreal, possible albeit unlikely.  PCQ won't win in Montreal.  Parties on right generally don't win ridings in large urban centres anymore.  Vancouver-False Creek probably last example of this and even it has now flipped to NDP provincially.  In UK you have some like Cities of London & Westminster but good chance it flips next election too.

Huh?  Anglophones in Quebec overwhelming vote Liberal.  Just like Francophones in Ontario vote Liberal.

Presumably meant "PQ", one of the perils of 3 of the top 4 parties going by "P*Q"

[Benjamin Frank]

I hope nobody minds me asking basic questions here, but I've always found the Montreal 'suburbs', the South Shore and the North Shore, confusing as a region. (I'm already aware the the city of Montreal does not include the entire island of Montreal, although it did briefly.)

Would it be accurate to say that other than Laval and Longueuil, the South Shore and the North Shore are rural and aren't really suburbs per se? Are there other smaller but still  suburban cities in the South Shore and the North Shore?

The Montreal 'suburbs' seem to be very different than the Vancouver suburbs or the Toronto suburbs.

[Philly D.]

Would it be accurate to say that other than Laval and Longueuil, the South Shore and the North Shore are rural and aren't really suburbs per se? Are there other smaller but still  suburban cities in the South Shore and the North Shore?

The Montreal 'suburbs' seem to be very different than the Vancouver suburbs or the Toronto suburbs.

The South Shore and North Shore along with Laval constitute Montréal's answer to the 905, the 450, and include many more suburbs than Laval and Longueuil -- in fact the North Shore is larger than Laval! Some larger (Liberal) ones are Vaudreuil, Châteauguay and Brossard, the latter being the most multicultural city in Quebec, and the two large Bloc ones are Terrebonne at 115k and Repentigny at 80k.

There are many smaller suburbs as well -- over 50 others -- and most of them are BQ except for a few near Vaudreuil, Saint-Lambert (the closest suburb to Montréal, even closer than Westmount) and to a lesser extent Candiac and the wealthy Saint-Bruno on the South Shore and Rosemère on the North Shore.

In a clockwise direction they are:

- Varennes
- Boucherville (50k)
- Saint-Amable (10k)
- Sainte-Julie (32k)
- Saint-Mathias-de-Beloeil and a few small villages by the Richelieu River and the Chemin des Patriotes (8k)
- Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville (26k; contains a provincial park)
- Saint-Basile-le-Grand
- Beloeil
- Mont-Saint-Hilaire (20k)
- Otterburn Park (8k)
- McMasterville (6k)
- Carignan (8k; agricultural/exurban and without a town centre, in fact in two disjoint pieces)
- Chambly (25k; NHS of Fort Chambly)
- Saint-Lambert (28k; Victoria and Jacques-Cartier Bridges empty here)
- Brossard (91k; Champlain Bridge empties here)
- Candiac
- La Prairie (Canada's first rail line)
- Delson
- Saint-Constant
- Sainte-Catherine
- Saint-Rémi and a few exurban/agricultural towns (10k; ancestral home of the Trudeaus)
- Kahnawake
- Châteauguay (48k)
- Mercier
- Ile Perrot (40k; several municipalities)
- Les Cèdres
- Les Coteaux (also a suburb of Valleyfield)
- Vaudreuil-Dorion
- Saint-Lazare (26k)
- Hudson (wealthy and anglo, also in two disjoint pieces)
- Oka (Kanesatake)
- Pointe-Calumet (exurb and large beach club)
- Saint-Joseph-sur-le-Lac (exurb)
- Saint-Marthe
- Deux-Montagnes
- Saint-Eustache (45k; site of 1837 uprising battle and very dear to separatists)
- Boisbriand (19k; Hassidic community)
- Rosemère (14k)
- Mirabel (61k; an amalgamation of small towns and exurbs, contains Mirabel airport)
- Sainte-Thérèse (26k)
- Blainville (58k)
- Saint-Jérôme (72k; debatable whether this is an exurb or a regional centre, but growing quickly)
- Lorraine (9k)
- Bois-des-Filion (12k)
- Sainte-Sophie (outside of the Montreal CMA)
- Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines (15k; Canada's SuperMax Prison)
- Terrebonne (120k; the A-40 Charles-de-Gaulle Bridge from Montréal empties at its easternmost extremity in the premerger town of Lachenaie)
- Mascouche (50k)
- Saint-Lin-Laurentides (exurb; NHS of Sir Wilfrid Laurier House)
- Céline Dion Central (or Charlemagne - 6k)
- Repentigny (82k)
- L'Epiphanie (7k; agricultural/exurb)
- L'Assomption (35k, Legault's own stomping ground)
- Saint-Sulpice (4k; strictly agricultural with no room for growth)
- Lavaltrie (13k; in a separate MRC and also closer to Joliette)

Montréal is unique for the number of suburbs it has in Canada (although per capita Vancouver is competitive). Circa 2000 amalgamation only reduced the count by 6 or so. I wouldn't say they are more unique than Toronto or Vancouver suburbs, or at least only to the extent that Québec is unique... It is true that the 450 is not completely well-defined. Administratively it is part of the Montérégie region on the South Shore and the Laurentides and Lanaudière region on the North, and the rural parts of Montérégie, and especially Lanaudière are among the areas of the province with the least distinct identities.

Finally you cannot go directly from the North Shore to the South Shore, except for a seasonal ferry between Hudson and Oka (the Ottawa River is the delineator between the two west of Montréal), and a permanent one, although well away from the suburbs, between Sorel and Berthierville.

In the context of this thread, the PLQ hold Saint-Lambert, Vaudreuil and Brossard, and could lose all three to the CAQ in descending order of probability. (QS has never been strong here and the PQ is headed nowhere fast.)

[adma]

Pontiac is only Anglophone seat the PCQ has an outside chance of winning, but even that a long shot.  It is predominately Anglophone so no way goes PLQ.  But it did Conservative ten years ago under Lawrence Cannon federally and even in most recent federal election, Conservatives won several predominately Anglophone communities in Pontiac region like Shawville.  Only lost riding badly as includes large section in Gatineau area where they got slaughtered.  So because its Anglophone, rural and somewhat more conservative than the more Anglophone areas in Montreal, possible albeit unlikely.  PCQ won't win in Montreal.  Parties on right generally don't win ridings in large urban centres anymore.  Vancouver-False Creek probably last example of this and even it has now flipped to NDP provincially.  In UK you have some like Cities of London & Westminster but good chance it flips next election too.

Huh?  Anglophones in Quebec overwhelming vote Liberal.  Just like Francophones in Ontario vote Liberal.

Presumably meant "PQ", one of the perils of 3 of the top 4 parties going by "P*Q"

Or brain-farted on Franco-preferences for CAQ, given the straitened state of the PQ.

While an expanded CAQ big tent could encompass Pontiac in a way the PQ never could, I agree that it *could* be the one true "Anglo-Conservative" possibility due to regional dynamics: it's somewhat of a rural-Anglo-Protestant political-culture piece with the corresponding Ontario part of the Ottawa Valley, and can vote in ways similar to "Cheryl Gallant country" across the Ottawa River...

[Poirot]

A poll of Quebec City metro, done by Segma Recherche with a margin of error of 3.5%

CAQ 42.5%
PCQ 25%
QS 16%
PLQ 6%
PQ 6%

CAQ dominates the older age group. QS does well with the very young. PCQ does well with young and middle aged. For the 18-54 age group, 33% PCQ, 28% CAQ, 23% QS.

The gap between CAQ and PCQ is greater on the Lévis side. On Quebec City side: CAQ  41%, PCQ 26%, QS 18%.
https://www.fm93.com/nouvelles/505893/la-caq-en-avance-le-pcq-competitif-chez-les-18-54-ans