Quebec 2022 Election
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Author Topic: Quebec 2022 Election  (Read 18079 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #300 on: October 17, 2022, 02:40:12 PM »
« edited: October 18, 2022, 11:45:28 AM by RogueBeaver »

Nathalie Roy has been chosen by Legault as the new speaker, and he will unveil his cabinet on Thursday. Assembly will convene on Nov. 29 for a couple of weeks before the holiday recess.

Assembly SG has written to PSPP informing him that the PQ members will not be allowed to take their seats without the oath of allegiance. Plamondon wrote to the other party leaders asking for the oath to be abolished - Legault's spox said they're open to doing that, the Grits are noncommittal. CAQ and Grit members are taking the oath. PSPP suggested he might fight a court battle, but I don't see a scenario where the PQ remains seatless for an extended period.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #301 on: October 27, 2022, 08:30:09 PM »

Here is Quebec by the 17 regions

Bas-Saint Laurent

CAQ - 40.5%
PQ   - 30.4%
QS   - 12.7%
PCQ - 12%
PLQ - 4.7%

Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean

CAQ - 57.5%
PQ   - 19.4%
PCQ - 10.3%
QS  -  9.3%
PLQ - 3%

Capitale Nationale

CAQ - 42.2%
PCQ - 20.8%
QS  - 16.3%
PQ  - 13.5%
PLQ - 6%

Mauricie

CAQ - 53.1%
PCQ - 15.7%
PQ   - 14.1%
QS  -  11.1%
PLQ - 5.2%

Estrie

CAQ - 45.4%
QS   - 21.6%
PCQ - 12.1%
PQ   - 11.5%
PLQ - 8.1%

Ile de Montreal

PLQ - 34.9%
QS   - 22.5%
CAQ - 18.7%
PQ   - 10.7%
PCQ - 8.8%

Outaouis

CAQ - 43%
PLQ - 21.3%
QS  - 14%
PCQ - 10.5%
PQ  - 9.3%

Abitibi-Temiscamingue

CAQ - 46.2%
QS   - 21.4%
PQ   - 14.5%
PCQ - 9.7%
PLQ - 7.6%

Cote Nord

CAQ - 52%
PQ   - 23%
PCQ - 12.9%
QS   - 8.5%
PLQ - 2.8%

Nord

CAQ - 36.3%
QS   - 24.2%
PLQ  - 18.2%
PQ   -  12.6%
PCQ -  8.8%

Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine

CAQ - 42.5%
PQ   - 35.6%
QS  - 9.2%
PLQ - 7.7%
PCQ- 4.6%

Chaudiere-Appalaches

CAQ - 45.7%
PCQ - 33.2%
PQ   - 8.7%
QS   - 7.7%
PLQ -  4.4%

Laval

CAQ - 32.5%
PLQ - 30.2%
PCQ - 12.7%
QS   - 12.4%
PQ  -  10.8%

Lanaudiere

CAQ - 51.1%
PQ   - 20.1%
QS   - 13%
PCQ - 9.1%
PLQ - 6.2%

Laurentides

CAQ - 48.5%
PQ   - 17.5%
QS  -  14.3%
PCQ - 10.7%
PLQ - 7.8%

Monteregie

CAQ - 45.7%
PQ   - 15.7%
QS  -  14.1%
PLQ - 13.8%
PCQ - 9%

Centre du Quebec

CAQ - 51%
PCQ - 19.9%
PQ   - 13.8%
QS   - 10.7%
PLQ  - 3.9%


CAQ: Asides Island of Montreal dominated everywhere else with Laval being only region somewhat close.  They've more or less gobbled up both former PQ and ADQ support

PLQ: Largely a Montreal/Laval party while in much of rest of province irrelevant.  Single digits and often fifth places so fallen mightily and in even worse shape than topline seat numbers suggest

QS: While largely confined to more your trendy urban areas, they still managed to get around 10% in much of rest of province suggesting they do have support elsewhere but not nearly enough to win.

PQ: No real area of concentration, not even the eastern parts which are now CAQ, but still some residual support in traditional areas but largely in teens and with no area of strength ability to win seats depends largely on popularity of local candidate.

PCQ;  Chaudiere-Appalaches area came closest in and also second in Centre du Quebec and Capitale Nationale.  Their support has strong correlation with federal Conservative support and mirrors that, just lower levels thus why not winning seats.  Though in Montreal area did best in Anglophone/Allophone areas probably largely due to opposition to Bill 96 so not all support came at expense of CAQ, some came from PLQ too.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #302 on: November 07, 2022, 11:04:50 AM »

Anglade is leaving politics.
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Poirot
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« Reply #303 on: November 11, 2022, 08:28:38 PM »

Stats from 338Canada twitter. The median vote share for the 125 ridings by party.

CAQ 45,2 %
PQ 13,6 %
QS 13,1 %
PCQ 10,4 %
PLQ 7,9 %
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Poirot
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« Reply #304 on: November 12, 2022, 10:17:46 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2023, 11:02:13 AM by afleitch »

A map of the election results by voting subdivision from Le Devoir. It's searchable by postal code or address. It's for votes on voting day. It doesn't take into account advanced voting which has become very important.

Le Devoir says CAQ won 64% of voting subdivisions on voting day compared to 60% in 2018. It won all subdivisions in 11 ridings. PLQ swept two ridings (Robert Baldwin and Jacques Cartier. QS won all Gouin and PQ Matane-Matapédia.

The most CAQ with over 80% was a voting division in a part of Chicoutimi. The most Conservative is Saint-Honoré-de-Shenley in Beauce-Sud with 68%. The most Liberal is Grosse-Ile in Iles-de-la-Madeleine with 85%. It's an anglophone part of the islands. The most QS is in Gouin and the most PQ with 84% is Saint-Jean-de-Cherbourg in Matane-Matapédia.

Bloc Montreal won a division in Saint-Laurent. The article says the atikamek, cree, innu voted QS. Waswanipi (cree) is 94% QS, this is where the QS candidate in Ungava is from. In Duplessis almost all the innu in Mingan voted QS. The inuit communities voted Liberal, the Liberal candidate in Ungava was inuit.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #305 on: November 14, 2022, 01:45:29 PM »


Bloc Montreal won a division in Saint-Laurent.

This is very clearly a transcription error. The Liberals, who won every other poll in the riding "won" just 2% in that one poll, while BM got 0-2% in the surrounding polls.
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Poirot
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« Reply #306 on: December 03, 2022, 05:53:23 PM »


Bloc Montreal won a division in Saint-Laurent.

This is very clearly a transcription error. The Liberals, who won every other poll in the riding "won" just 2% in that one poll, while BM got 0-2% in the surrounding polls.

There was a request to investigate the counting of the vote in that poll in Saint-Laurent considering the unusual official result. A journalist has found more people who claim they voted PLQ in that section than the result. Elections Quebec has refused to investigate.

I don't know if it could be a voluntary move by a Bloc Montreal partisan or just a mistake of writing numbers on different lines.
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adma
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« Reply #307 on: December 04, 2022, 06:44:16 AM »

Probably akin to those occasional tabulation errors in federal results which are noted in footnote form with the proviso that they do not affect the final outcome (i.e. who wins/loses in whichever particular riding, etc)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #308 on: September 19, 2023, 06:16:00 PM »

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/electoral-maps/review-of-quebecs-electoral-map/

New electoral map proposal for Quebec.
Only 50 of the 125 seats are changed, two abolished ridings and two new ones.

Gaspésie/Bas-St-Laurent: Gaspé is split in two. Bonaventure takes most of it and is renamed Gaspé-Bonaventure, the rest goes in Matane-Matapédia, who shred its west to Rimouski.

Quebec City: Vanier-Les Rivières is too big, it loses a part to La Peltrie, who loses its rural west hinterland to Portneuf.

Central Quebec/Eastern Townships. It's a mess. St-François loses everything that's north of Sherbrooke, it goes to Richmond, who loses most of its rural areas and becomes a seat made of Richmond itself and various suburbs west and north of Sherbrooke. Both Brome-Missisquoi and Orford are losing some towns in their north because of being overpopulated (that's from Highway 10). Granby takes some of it, but most goes into Daniel-Johnson, a renamed Jonhson which totally leaves the Drummondville area, but adds towns from Brome-Missisquoi and Orford, the west of Richmond and the east hinterland of St-Hyacinthe. The Drummondville area leftover takes some amalgamated suburbs of Drummondville from Drummond-Bois-Francs to become a new riding, called Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie, a suffragette (terrible name, but short of Drummond West or Drummond Outer, I don't see a name). To compensate the loss, Drummond-Bois-Francs takes the rural east of Richmond (around the town of Val-des-Sources, formerly known as Asbestos).

Montréal: A seat is lost, it's technically Anjou-Louis-Riel, but the PQ leader district is torn apart too. Camille-Laurin is now made of the east of Camille-Laurin and the Anjou part of Anjou-Louis-Riel (which has not voted for the PQ since 1994). The west of Camille-Laurin goes into Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, who loses the parts in the west that are in other boroughs (which are actually the weakest parts of the seats for QS) to Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques. The Louis-Riel parts are added to the east of Rosemont, which is renamed Rosemont-Louis-Riel (which looks like a QS/CAQ/PQ/PLQ marginal). Viau, being the least populated riding on the island, takes the east of Laurier-Dorion and a small part of Gouin (which I assume is totally destroying the small Liberal majority left there). Finally,  Gouin and Laurier-Dorion are sh**tfed to a West/East split instead of North/South and Gouin taking the West of Rosemont (nicely spreading QS strongest neighbourhoods around).

Lanaudière: Repentigny loses its "rural" part and takes Charlemagne (hometown of Céline Dion) from  L'Assomption instead. L'Assomption takes the rural parts of Repentigny and one town from Berthier to compensate.

Laurentides: Underpopulated Les Plaines takes the north of Terrebonne and underpopulated Masson takes the east of Terrebonne, who compensates by taking Bois-des-Fillions from Blainville. Also, a new riding called Bellefeuille is created, from the west of the city and riding of St-Jérôme, towns from Prévost and Argenteuil and a part of Mirabel. Argenteuil compensate by taking the villages south from the highway from Labelle (probably a better fit there).

Laval: Chomedey is growing way too quickly due to new builds, they move an area under development to Laval-des-Rapides to give some leeway and Laval-des-Rapides give some to Mille-Îles, so it doesn't develop the same problem.

Montérégie: Richelieu takes the town of Contrecoeur (where Montreal wants to build its new harbour) from Verchères. St-Hyacinthe (who lost parts to Daniel-Johnson takes parts of overpopulated Borduas to compensate. Underpopulated Sanguinet takes a small town from Huntington. Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu now requires to be split, so it loses its more rural neighbourhoods in the west of town to Huntington. Vaudreuil is now overquota, so the town of Vaudreuil itself is splitted and added to Soulanges. That puts Soulanges overquota, so it loses its parts along the St. Lawrence to Beauharnois (which is now a cross-St. Lawrence riding based around Valleyfield; that new Soulanges probably worries the CAQ, losing the most CAQ part of Soulanges and adding Liberal areas). All of the Beauharnois riding on the South Shore, but the eponymous town is transfered to Huntington (which is now pretty mcuh everything rural south of the St. Lawrence and west of the Richelieu River.

Outaouais: Everything over quota, but there is still not the population for 6 ridings. Papineau loses some of its parts in the city of Gatineau to Chapleau and Gatineau (a riding covering the Gatineau valley, not the city) loses some part of the city of Gatineau to Hull (this needs to be reviewed, as that part is not contiguous by road with the rest of the riding, the Gatineau River having no bridges in that area.

Finally, in Saguenay, that wierd saliant of Chicoutimi into Dubuc (a leftover of former pre-2002 municipal limits) is being cut off.

Abitibi, Beauce, Côte-Nord, Northern Quebec and Mauricie are left unchanged.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #309 on: September 20, 2023, 09:06:42 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2023, 09:14:17 AM by Hatman 🍁 »

The Quebec tradition of naming ridings after people continues...

Yeah, I hope they reconsider moving that random neighbourhood in Gatineau to Hull. I wonder if it would work to move some of Aylmer into Hull, and then move Chelsea into Pontiac to compensate? I feel like Chelsea would be a better fit for Pontiac, due to it being an Anglophone influenced riding (Chelsea has a large Anglo population).

ETA: Actually, this works pretty well. You don't even need to add any of Aylmer to Hull. I'm not sure how many electors get transferred (the redistribution is based on electors, not population), but the population transfer works out well.
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Poirot
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« Reply #310 on: September 21, 2023, 10:08:42 PM »

The Quebec tradition of naming ridings after people continues...

They wanted to add a woman's name. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie is a long name and they say she has no specific link to the riding, just Quebec as a whole. I don't know if they could find a historic woman from the area (with a shorter name).

The commission has regrouped Estrie and Centre-du-Québec and treat it as one region. I would like to see the number of voters in Estrie to see if it's possible to add the riding in Estrie exclusively and respect the administrative region as much as possible.
I have already seen reaction of towns moved. Val-des-Sources (new name of Asbestos) doesn't want to be taken out of its Estrie region and be put in a Centre-du-Québec mainly riding.
Saint-Rosaire doesn't want to leave Arthabaska and be put in Nicolet-Bécancour.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #311 on: September 22, 2023, 09:14:54 AM »

The Quebec tradition of naming ridings after people continues...

They wanted to add a woman's name. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie is a long name and they say she has no specific link to the riding, just Quebec as a whole. I don't know if they could find a historic woman from the area (with a shorter name).

The commission has regrouped Estrie and Centre-du-Québec and treat it as one region. I would like to see the number of voters in Estrie to see if it's possible to add the riding in Estrie exclusively and respect the administrative region as much as possible.
I have already seen reaction of towns moved. Val-des-Sources (new name of Asbestos) doesn't want to be taken out of its Estrie region and be put in a Centre-du-Québec mainly riding.
Saint-Rosaire doesn't want to leave Arthabaska and be put in Nicolet-Bécancour.

Johnson is already a riding in three regions (Estrie/Centre-du-Québec/Montérégie), since 2021 (when the Haute-Yamaska (Granby) MRC was moved from Montérégie to Estrie.

Estrie electors (by adding each MRC): 392333 (7.74 ridings)
Centre-du-Québec: 198731 (3.92 ridings)
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Poirot
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« Reply #312 on: March 28, 2024, 10:36:55 PM »

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/electoral-maps/review-of-quebecs-electoral-map/

New electoral map proposal for Quebec.
Only 50 of the 125 seats are changed, two abolished ridings and two new ones.


I'm posting here since it's where there was talk of the new electoral map proposal for 2026.

The political parties all agree to stop the work for a new electoral map. For 2026 it's the status quo. Ridings stay the same. Good for places that could have lost a riding but bad for already too big ridings (Brome Mississquoi is already 33% above average).

Parties will discuss criteria that should be used to draw ridings. Probably a distance criteria to protect some regions and their political weight. Montreal members want total population to be a factor and not electors because they receive a lot of demands from non voting individuals at their offices. There are also some who want more ridings since the population has grown over the years. A map should be in place for 2030 with the set of criteria.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-electoral-map-review-bill-suspension-1.7158497
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