Quebec 2022 Election

[MaxQue]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

Further evidence that it is the post-sovereigntist parties who are the future of politics here, compared to the declining parties of the sovereignty era. Net +1 and second place popular vote is certainly rosy when compared to PQ and PLQ's losses.

Verdun isn't sure yet, the QS lead dropped from 1500 to 500 in the last few minutes. PCQ is also about to take the lead in Beauce-Nord.

Or not for Beauce-Nord. The lead went down to 15 votes, but is now back to over 300.

[DistingFlyer]

One other first achieved tonight: the Pequistes outpolling the Liberals but electing fewer members.

[RogueBeaver]

PSPP elected.

[MaxQue]

One other first achieved tonight: the Pequistes outpolling the Liberals but electing fewer members.

Not sure yet. Only .5% between the two.

[DistingFlyer]

One other first achieved tonight: the Pequistes outpolling the Liberals but electing fewer members.

Not sure yet. Only .5% between the two.

To put it in more certain parameters, it's the first time the Liberals have elected more members than the Pequistes while not leading them in votes by more than 4%.

[adma]

One other first achieved tonight: the Pequistes outpolling the Liberals but electing fewer members.

Not sure yet. Only .5% between the two.

At the moment, there's a smaller gap btw/PLQ and PQ than there is btw/PQ and QS.

[mileslunn]

Overall my big thoughts are seems big divide between Island of Montreal where CAQ only won 2 seats while off the island of Montreal, only 8 seats they failed to win.

Looking at parties

CAQ: Won big and definitely the dominate party amongst Francophones.  Despite that only got 41% which is not particularly high or unusual for a winning party.  But thanks to divided opposition allowed a landslide win.  Next year possible you see in Alberta & Manitoba losing party get above that so divided opposition helped a lot.

PLQ: Did absolutely horrible getting under 15%.  Only did alright in seats as vote very concentrated.  They seem very much the party of non-Francophones so yes have a base to build off but lots of work to do before have a realistic shot at power.  However Quebec is known for wild swings so CAQ is by no means a shoo in for 2026.

QS: Looks like came in second in votes and did alright in seats.  May have even come in first amongst millennials, but appeal is more towards your urban woke crowd thus certain concentration of support but probably need to become more a traditional social democratic party with greater blue collar appeal to be a real contender for power and as we've seen elsewhere appealing to both no easy task. 

PQ: With two seats, party seems on last legs.  With CAQ appealing to more conservative nationalist while QS to more left wing separatist, not sure there really is much room for them.

PCQ:  Failed to win a seat which is no surprise as libertarianism has never really been popular in Quebec.  But if you look at strongest ridings, yes strongest in Quebec City region where Tories are federally, but also came in second in many heavily Anglophone ridings so strong opposition to Bill 96 probably helped them there as PLQ was accused of throwing Anglophones under bus and not fighting strong enough for their rights.

Anyways both Ontario and Quebec elections were snoozers.  PEI next year likely is but Alberta & Manitoba should be more competitive and thus more interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Someone should make a map of which non-CAQ party won the most votes in each riding. That's got to be more revealing of Québec's political divisions than the map we got.

[jaichind]

It would be a very ironic joke to go back in time right after the heavy 2014 election defeat and tell PQ that "In 2022 elections PQ would narrowly edge out QLP in vote share".  The PQ reaction would be "I knew we will make a comeback !!! We will be the biggest party and even perhaps a majority" and then be shown the 2022 election result.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone should make a map of which non-CAQ party won the most votes in each riding. That's got to be more revealing of Québec's political divisions than the map we got.

Struggling to find a blank map. Otherwise, I'd be making such a map right now.

[DL]

As was the case in Ontario, Mainstreet's riding polls were absolutely abysmal. They consistently underestimated QS in ridings where they were in contention and they grossly underestimated the PCQ in ridings where they were in contention. Why does that company even bother riding polls at all when they are so consistently dead wrong. Its bad for their reputation and just gives the public bad information.

[Oryxslayer]

Here you guys go:



Well, first off a lot of these second place finishes were with around 14% to the CAQs 40-50%, so not too much can be inferred. This gap is why there are a few oddities like random QS leads.

However, there is a clear geographic divide. PQ has the lead when we exclude the CAQ. Their long-lost strongholds around Montreal show up un the map, as well as their more recently lost strongholds in the periphery.

Then come the Liberals who do absolutely horrible given the context of the map. The PLQ always had bad geography with their vote concentrated in Montreal. This geographic disadvantage did become a advantage last night as the party has a relatively high floor of seats, but it is a disadvantage province-wide. Outside the expected Montreal, Laval, Vaudreuil, and Outaouais, the Liberals only have the advantage in a handful of Montreal suburban seats.

QS has a very interesting distribution. There's the Montreal Plateau seats the party actually won, along with Verdun. City centers like Trois-Rivières and the heart of Quebec City. The First Nations of Ungava. The defeated incumbent in Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue. Then there is the Estrie - a lot of leads here is just because of how Sherbrooke is gerrymandered, but it also carries over to unrelated seats like Granby.

The Conservatives lead in the greater Quebec City and central rural regions. Basically the places where the Federal Conservatives could actually have won under the 2019/2021 coalitions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

hahahahahaha. Even without CAQ, QS still comes in third, almost tied for fourth. Don't you love FPP?

Anyway, excellent work! Thanks for the map and your analysis of it.

[MaxQue]

It turns out the the Trump-like party refusing to accept election results is the Liberals.
The Liberal MNA for Verdun, Isabelle Melançon, refuses to recognize her defeat.

[MaxQue]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

[Oryxslayer]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

[MaxQue]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

[DL]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

FWIW when the NDP swept Quebec in 2011 some of its biggest margins were in eastern township places Drummond and Shefford and Ste. Hyacinthe and some of their MPs from there even won again in 2015...

[RogueBeaver]

For those interested, Radio-Canada simulated elections since 2008 under MMP. PLQ plurality in 2012 is the biggest difference.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at the map, having Sherbrooke's suburbs being split between 3 different ridings is probably the biggest reason.

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

Preferring a separatist party (QS) over a nationalist party (CAQ) for an Anglo seems kind of weird, but I suppose if you think about it more in terms of cultural nationalism, then, I get it. 

[mileslunn]

Looking at the map, having Sherbrooke's suburbs being split between 3 different ridings is probably the biggest reason.

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

Preferring a separatist party (QS) over a nationalist party (CAQ) for an Anglo seems kind of weird, but I suppose if you think about it more in terms of cultural nationalism, then, I get it. 

Quebec Solidaire strikes me more as an urban left wing party and yes separatist but their leftist ideas more so than separatism is what attracts people to them.  Very similar base to what Corbyn in UK had or Bernie Sanders in Democrats.  Amongst younger people, there is a feeling system is not working so more open to radical ideas so lots going to QS on left.  Also PCQ did better amongst younger voters too as not all turning left, some turning right too, especially libertarian right.

[DL]

I get the feeling that hard core separatists in Quebec (such that they still exist) vote PQ. Quebec Solidaire seems to have de-emphasized separatism and it has never been their core "raison d'etre" the way it is for the PQ and they now just talk about wanting to convene a citizens assembly on the future of Quebec. Also, the PQ wants even more draconian anti-English and anti-immigrant measures than the CAQ does, while QS has opposed Bill 21 - so I think if you are a young progressive anglo QS is a much easier "sell" than the PQ 

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm aware of all that, but I think it still prevents them from making inroads among Anglos in general.

[MaxQue]

Looking at the map, having Sherbrooke's suburbs being split between 3 different ridings is probably the biggest reason.

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

Preferring a separatist party (QS) over a nationalist party (CAQ) for an Anglo seems kind of weird, but I suppose if you think about it more in terms of cultural nationalism, then, I get it. 

I don,t think there is much Anglo vote for QS there, but the fact Anglos are well-inetegrated makes nationalism less appealing to their Francophones friends/spouses/etc.

The PLQ conceded in Verdun.