Quebec 2022 Election

[Poirot]

Léger will probably have a new poll this week. As a reference for comparison of different polling firms I will post the polls done in June.

Léger (June 17-19)

CAQ 41%
PLQ 18%
PCQ 15%
QS 14%
PQ 9%
Other 3%

Mainstreet (June 9-10)

CAQ 40%
PLQ 21%
PCQ 17%
QS 12%
PQ 8%
Other 2%

Angus Reid (June 7-13)

CAQ 35%
PLQ 18%
PCQ 19%
QS 14%
PQ 10%

[Poirot]

I don't know much about QC-poli, so maybe someone can clear this up for me:



Québec Solidaire clearly defines itself as sovereigntist party, but do they just not emphasize it like the PQ does? Is it a passive thing, like sovereignty is cool I guess, but we're happy to just have more rent control and government programs, or are they actually firm on the idea, but many of their federalist voters don't care because they just want to vote for a left-wing party?

Léger in June also had a referendum question. Overall 32% would vote yes, 52% against, 15% no answer/don't know. By language francos are 39% for, 45% against 17% no answer. Non francophone 8% for, 82% against, 10% no answer.

By party
CAQ 43 yes, 42 no, 15 don't know
PLQ 6 yes, 87 no, 7 don't know
PCQ 21 yes, 72 no, 7 don't know
QS 39 yes, 51 no, 10 don't know
PQ 86 yes, 5 no, 9 don't know

Sice CAQ has the most overall support we can say the biggest number of sovereigntists vote CAQ. In this poll QS is even less sovereigntist than in Mainstreet. To think that Option Nationale decided to merge with QS.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't know much about QC-poli, so maybe someone can clear this up for me:



Québec Solidaire clearly defines itself as sovereigntist party, but do they just not emphasize it like the PQ does? Is it a passive thing, like sovereignty is cool I guess, but we're happy to just have more rent control and government programs, or are they actually firm on the idea, but many of their federalist voters don't care because they just want to vote for a left-wing party?

Léger in June also had a referendum question. Overall 32% would vote yes, 52% against, 15% no answer/don't know. By language francos are 39% for, 45% against 17% no answer. Non francophone 8% for, 82% against, 10% no answer.

By party
CAQ 43 yes, 42 no, 15 don't know
PLQ 6 yes, 87 no, 7 don't know
PCQ 21 yes, 72 no, 7 don't know
QS 39 yes, 51 no, 10 don't know
PQ 86 yes, 5 no, 9 don't know

Sice CAQ has the most overall support we can say the biggest number of sovereigntists vote CAQ. In this poll QS is even less sovereigntist than in Mainstreet. To think that Option Nationale decided to merge with QS.

I crunched the numbers on that Léger poll, here's how it breaks down in terms of how the two different camps vote:

Sovereigntists:
CAQ: 55%
PQ: 24%
QS: 17%
PCQ: 10%
PLQ: 3%

Federalists:
CAQ: 32%
PLQ: 30%
PCQ: 20%
QS: 13%
PQ: 1%

The federalist camp is pretty split, but sovereigntists have drifted largely to CAQ. I think Quebec nationalists have done well to put aside the S-word and instead focus on securing maximum independence from Ottawa within the same federation. This seems to be Legault's approach to the nationalism issue, and it may be the most effective approach yet.

[Poirot]

I don't know if there is one small anglo party that is more popular than the other. The leader of the Canadian party of Quebec Colin Standish is running in Westmount-Saint-Louis. Bloc Montreal's Balarama Holness is running in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce.

Léger poll will be published tomorrow. As a teaser answers to the question who is best to manage the next covid wave was released.
Legault 49%
Nadeau-Dubois 9%
Duhaime 7%
Anglade 6%
St-Pierre Plamondon 1%
Don't know 28%

[MaxQue]

I don't know if there is one small anglo party that is more popular than the other. The leader of the Canadian party of Quebec Colin Standish is running in Westmount-Saint-Louis. Bloc Montreal's Balarama Holness is running in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce.

Léger poll will be published tomorrow. As a teaser answers to the question who is best to manage the next covid wave was released.
Legault 49%
Nadeau-Dubois 9%
Duhaime 7%
Anglade 6%
St-Pierre Plamondon 1%
Don't know 28%

Sign it will be worse than usual for PQ? Not that it would a surprise, they struggle big time finding candidates (some PQ seats still don't have candidates and the Greens have more candidates announced).

[Poirot]

PQ voters like Legault and less are not satisfied with Legault. St-Pierre Plamondon has not a high profile / is not known. Maybe not 1% but not a sign there was an increase.

Maybe PQ needs a more angrry target group. The Conservatives are angry about pandemic measures and angry about everything, government, taxes, freedom, politicians. QS are angry about social justice, climate change and environment, rent, the disadvantaged. PLQ have some angry people about nationalist laws.

Speaking of Green Party, the leader has come out against the tramway project in Quebec City. He would like a subway.

[MaxQue]

Local PQ candidate announced. It's the federal NDP candidate of 2019, wierdly.

[Poirot]

PQ voters like Legault and less are not satisfied with Legault. St-Pierre Plamondon has not a high profile / is not known. Maybe not 1% but not a sign there was an increase.

The latest Léger poll shows PQ voters like Legault more than the PQ leader. Only 23% of PQ voters say St-Pierre Plamondon would make the best premier, 48% answer Legault. All the other parties have the own party leader more popular.

70% of PQ voters are satisfied with the government. The highest number among opposition parties after that is PLQ voters at 41%.

[Poirot]

The léger done July 29-31.

CAQ 44%
PLQ 18%
QS 15%
PCQ 13%
PQ 10%
Other 1%

Compared to the last one CAQ has a little increase and PCQ a little decrease. Léger before showed the PCQ lower than other pollsters. In Quebec City metro CAQ leads PCQ 40% to 25%.

Franco: CAQ 50, QS 16, PQ 12, PCQ 11, PLQ 10
Non Franco: PLQ 46, PCQ 20, CAQ 17, QS 11, Other 5, PQ 1
I suppose the other are the two anglo parties and maybe some green.

QS leads the 18-34 age group with 35% followed by CAQ 30%.
CAQ dominates over 55 with 52% followed by PLQ 20%.
The best subregion for QS is rest of Quebec.

QS voters are the most likey to change followed by PQ voters.

Second choice by party:

QS voters
PLQ 23%
CAQ 20%
PQ 15%
Other 13%
PCQ 5%

PQ voters
QS 29%
CAQ 26%
Other 4%
PCQ 3%
PLQ 2%

PLQ voters
CAQ 20%
QS 18%
Other 14%
PCQ 13%
PQ 7%

PCQ voters
Other 21%
PLQ 17%
PQ 14%
QS 9%
CAQ 8%

CAQ voters
PQ 24%
QS 17%
PLQ 13%
Other 5%
PCQ 4%

[DL]

"Compared to the last one CAQ has a little increase and PCQ a little decrease. Léger before showed the PCQ lower than other pollsters. In Quebec City metro CAQ leads PCQ 40% to 25%."

as i expected, this suggests that the PCQ vote will be very very inefficient and unfortunately for them the region where they are strongest, the CAQ is much much stronger. I suspect their range is 0 to 1 seat.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ and PLQ problems are structural, especially PQ ones that have been discussed since the 80s. While PSPP and Anglade are doing bad jobs neither party has a plausible alternative who'd be doing better.

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse reports that dissolution is likely around the 29th, the last possible day.

[mileslunn]

Looks like CAQ landslide majority and real race is for second.  PLQ probably still forms opposition as vote more concentrated.  QS may come in second in some polls, but their support skews heavily towards younger voters who are less likely to show up so depending on whether younger voters become more conservative or not, may have potential long term, but not short term.  PQ is pretty irrelevant and any seats they hold will be more due to popularity of MNA.  PCQ seems to be receding so although will do a lot better than 2018, I think their surge earlier was due to opposition to covid restrictions and with those all gone now, that has somewhat lessened their appeal.  I don't see them getting 20% or even 15%.  Maybe 10%, but unlike if an election were held in Spring in which they might have come in second votes (not seats) and gotten 20%, it seems a good chunk who voted CAQ in 2018 and were angry at covid restrictions have returned to CAQ.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/francoislegault/status/1562184905777446912

[MaxQue]

In other wierd news from my area, the PQ candidate in Ungava will be Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue from 2011 to 2019.

[Poirot]

In other wierd news from my area, the PQ candidate in Ungava will be Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue from 2011 to 2019.

The daughter of Romeo Saganash is running in Ungava for QS.

[Poirot]

PCQ seems to be receding so although will do a lot better than 2018, I think their surge earlier was due to opposition to covid restrictions and with those all gone now, that has somewhat lessened their appeal.  I don't see them getting 20% or even 15%.  Maybe 10%, but unlike if an election were held in Spring in which they might have come in second votes (not seats) and gotten 20%, it seems a good chunk who voted CAQ in 2018 and were angry at covid restrictions have returned to CAQ.

Duhaime will probably get coverage, sometimes bad from some outrageous declaration but he'll get attention. He'll be in debates and even if experts criticize him he can get a populist message across. I'm still puzzled if he'll get a bigger share of the non-francophone vote than francophone vote as some poll showed. 

Maxime Bernier will personnaly vote PCQ but his party will not take a party position.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1907945/quebec-duhaime-bernier-appui-campagne

With the campaign officially starting expenses will have to be counted. CAQ has been advertising all summer and I received an automated call.

Party Slogans

CAQ : Continuons
PLQ : Votez vrai. Vrais enjeux. Vraies solutions. 
QS : Changez d’ère
PQ: Le Québec qui s’assume. Pour vrai.
PCQ : Libre chez nous

[RogueBeaver]

New Léger is out. He warns that issue dissatisfaction, particularly on healthcare and education, is worse than ballot testing and it surprised him. With 38% undecided there's ample opportunity for surprises if someone can coalesce the dissatisfied.

Topline: 42 (+1), 17 (-1), 16 (+1), 15 (-1), , 9 (-). Legault government approval overall is 58/38. PQ is the top 2nd choice at 18% but GND is preferred opposition leader at 30%. PLQ at 7% among Francophones.

[DL]

Duhaime will probably get coverage, sometimes bad from some outrageous declaration but he'll get attention. He'll be in debates and even if experts criticize him he can get a populist message across. I'm still puzzled if he'll get a bigger share of the non-francophone vote than francophone vote as some poll showed. 

Is it that surprising? Isn't the PCQ the only party that is clearly against Bill 21 and against new restrictions on English?

[jaichind]

Wow.  What happened to PQ?  Did they lose more autonomist and sovereignist votes to CAQ since 2018?

[Oryxslayer]

Wow.  What happened to PQ?  Did they lose more autonomist and sovereignist votes to CAQ since 2018?

Its a whole story and someone can better explain it, but the short version is that the PQ no longer has a reason to exist. Separatism is dead issue electorally and appealing just to the superminority of diehards can't win much in a FPTP environment, much of their strongest partisans are old and naturally leaving the electorate - young separatists are likely to end up in QS for a host of other reasons, and a new popular party has a hold of government and appealing positively  to their former 'soft' voters - so they have no reason to hop ship.

[Poirot]

Duhaime will probably get coverage, sometimes bad from some outrageous declaration but he'll get attention. He'll be in debates and even if experts criticize him he can get a populist message across. I'm still puzzled if he'll get a bigger share of the non-francophone vote than francophone vote as some poll showed. 

Is it that surprising? Isn't the PCQ the only party that is clearly against Bill 21 and against new restrictions on English?

It is against the language bill but supports bill 21 (religious symbols) I believe.
It's more that Duhaime is a media personality with a strong base around Quebec City and he would be more popular with non-francophones around Montreal. I don't know if he has a strong presence in English media, maybe he has (or he shares the same network as Poilievre federal Conservatives). I've read Poilievre worked on Duhaime's campaign when he was a candidate for ADQ.

In the latest Léger PCQ vote is more even with 13% among francophone and 15% non-francophone, but non-francophone is smaller sample.

[Poirot]

Saw my first sign on the road in the riding. It was for the Conservative candidate. I don't know what is the point of having an official start of the campaign if parties start before.

Even CBC vote compass is already online. Fort those who like this thing:
https://votecompass.cbc.ca/quebec2022

Not sure how they choose their questions. There could be more questions on future promises on solutions to tackle cost of living for example.

I was looking at numbers from different polling firms. If differences are the same, Mainstreet could have PLQ and PCQ higher than Léger and QS, PQ lower. I posted them at the time to compare if differences remain the same (some firm usually having one party lower or higher)

[Poirot]

Wow.  What happened to PQ?  Did they lose more autonomist and sovereignist votes to CAQ since 2018?

Probably. The government has good satisfaction and Legault is trusted, pandemic must have helped because Legault was omnipresent and opposition parties had no place.

Legault has taken the nationalist position, defending the langauage or Quebec. He has recruited sovereigntists like Bernard Drainville and Caroline St-Hilaire to run this time. Even the PQ voters now are satisfied with the government. According to Léger, 73% of PQ voters are satisfied (it's 40% for PLQ and QS and only 7% for Conservative).

Many former PQ staffers have found jobs in CAQ political offices. It gets difficult to recruit star candidates. The leader is not well known. When asked who would make the best premier, the PQ leader only gets 47% among PQ voters while Legault gets 32%.  For best opposition leader PQ leader gets 58% among PQ voters but Nadeau-Dubois of QS still gets 20%..

And when people talk of the party it is to say it will disappear more than for its program. And there is always someone who will be unhappy about something or bash the party like Lucien Bouchard. CAQ attracts people wanting power and nationalism and some will go QS who have more social concerns. Earlier in this thread there were numbers showing there are more people for sovereignty who vote CAQ than PQ.

[MaxQue]

The election is officially called.

Also, it means the Bourget riding is now called Camille-Laurin, as stated in Bill 96.

I suspect the decision to call a riding after the father of Quebec language laws isn't going to be popular here, but it's still an improvement on Ignace Bourget, ultramontanist Bishop who excommunicated everybody who didn't agree with him and was finally forced to retire by the Vatican due to his excessive involvement in Canadian and Quebec politics. I'm sure it won't shock anybody this name was chosen during the Duplessis government.