Quebec 2022 Election

[RogueBeaver]

Grit campaign chair Carlos Leitao said Anglade will be staying as leader. PSPP has said he will too, but both will face leadership reviews next year.

[Oryxslayer]

La Peltrie is going back and forth between the CAQ and Conservatives.

[Estrella]

124 of 125 seats in. CAQ 92, PLQ 19, QS 11, PQ 2, PCQ 0. La Peltrie is still very wobbly, as is one QS seat (Maurice-Richard). PQ is winning both seats safely and Liberals' remanining seats look good too, though not in comparison to their historical performances - 61% in D'Arcy-McGee is pretty poor. The only PLQ seat outside Montréal and Laval is Pontiac - CAQ is leading even in Hull.

[VPH]

PSPP trailing too, depite PQ being (distantly) second in the overall popular vote.

I went back and forth on this race. Ended up thinking QS voters would break for the PQ.

[RogueBeaver]

The only unreported seat is Vachon, a safe seat for indigenous affairs minister Ian Lafrèniere.

[Oryxslayer]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Holy cow, PLQ might be in 5th place in the popular vote while forming the official opposition.

[VPH]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

I'm also surprised they're holding both Quebec City seats and Sherbrooke

[Oryxslayer]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

I'm also surprised they're holding both Quebec City seats and Sherbrooke

The pre-election models I feel seem to have overestimated how universal the CAQ gains would be, rather than simply cleaning up the opposition vote and straggler seats in between the cities.

Hull also kinda a three-way between the CAQ, Libs, and QS, that certainly is a surprise.

[Logical]

The combination of FPTP and Quebec's unique sociopolitical geography never fails to create fun lopsided results.

[Oryxslayer]

More flips: CAQ projected to win Vaudreuil, Laval-des-Rapides, René-Lévesque, Duplessis, Marie-Victorin.

Lévesque projected to hold Chauveau for the CAQ.

[adma]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

I'm also surprised they're holding both Quebec City seats and Sherbrooke

Well, proof of what I said about "Millennial cosmopolitan hipsters"--the one incumbent seat they're losing is the one most lacking in that factor, while the leads in places like Verdun are next-barometer frontiers for said demo.

At this point, IDLM is trying to be to the PQ what Orkney & Shetland is to the Lib Dems.

[Oryxslayer]

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue called for CAQ: first QS incumbent to lose ever.

[RogueBeaver]

Anglade reelected.

[VPH]

Fifth place finishes for the PLQ in numerous seats they won in 2014.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives speech right now seems like they know the final result will be a big 0.

[Oryxslayer]

QS projected to gain Maurice-Richard.

Fabre is uncalled as a CAQ gain, since the Liberals have pulled ahead. Frankly, almost all the Laval seats are tight and shouldn't have been called fast.

[RogueBeaver]

PSPP ahead for the first time in Camille-Laurin, but only 48 of 173 polls reporting.

[MaxQue]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

[Oryxslayer]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

Further evidence that it is the post-sovereigntist parties who are the future of politics here, compared to the declining parties of the sovereignty era. Net +1 and second place popular vote is certainly rosy when compared to PQ and PLQ's losses.

[adma]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

They just did.

[VPH]

CAQ's immigration comments definitely hurt them in the Montreal region. They're underperforming expectations. Seats like Marquette and Rosemont were supposed to be closer than they are. Anjou Louis-Riel and Laporte and Mille-Îles were supposed to be easy pickups and the PLQ are leading all three (although this can change).

[Oryxslayer]

Vaudreuil uncalled as a CAQ gain since the PLQ caught up in the late count. 

[MaxQue]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

Further evidence that it is the post-sovereigntist parties who are the future of politics here, compared to the declining parties of the sovereignty era. Net +1 and second place popular vote is certainly rosy when compared to PQ and PLQ's losses.

Verdun isn't sure yet, the QS lead dropped from 1500 to 500 in the last few minutes. PCQ is also about to take the lead in Beauce-Nord.

[Oryxslayer]

The Gaspé Peninsula (excluding Matane-Matapédia of course) seats are now getting called as CAQ gains  as the final polls report  in.