Quebec 2022 Election
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Author Topic: Quebec 2022 Election  (Read 17629 times)
Poirot
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« Reply #175 on: September 27, 2022, 08:02:05 PM »

Seems like the Liberal vote is not very enthusiastic so probably lower turnout.

Other numbers in the Léger poll:

St-Pierre Plamondon is considered the winner of the second debate by 21%, Nadeau-Dubois 12%, Duhaime 10%, Legault 9%, Anglade 6%. He is also the one who did better than expectations.

He has now almost caught up to Nadeau-Dubois has prefered leader of the opposition, 25% vs 27%. Anglade is at 15% and Duhaime 13%. Anglade numbers have improved.

PCQ vote is the most firm with 80% saying they won't change their mind. CAQ is at 75% and the other three parties about 60%.

PQ is the most popular second choice, 26%, QS 19%, CAQ 12%, PLQ 11%, PCQ 6%. PCQ very limited room to grow. PQ is the second choice of over 40% of CAQ and QS voters.

The overall vote by age according to Léger:
QS leads the 18-34 age group with 39% followed by CAQ at 18%.
CAQ leads the over 55 with 49%, PLQ 19%, PQ 18%

In Quebec City CAQ leads 38% to PCQ 24%, QS 15%.

The franco vote: CAQ 43, PQ 19, QS 18, PCQ 14, PLQ 7
Non-francophone: PLQ 46, PCQ 18, CAQ 16, QS 15, PQ 3
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #176 on: September 27, 2022, 08:33:45 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2022, 08:38:45 PM by RogueBeaver »

Legault said today he'll consider a third term but it depends on his health (current age record is 69 from Taschereau and Duplessis) and popularity. His eventual succession will set up a complex leadership race with potential candidates from all factions: Guilbeault, Girard, SJB, LeBel, Drainville, etc.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #177 on: September 28, 2022, 12:11:08 PM »

Legault will not reappoint his immigration minister Jean Boulet after Boulet said that 80% of immigrants don't work, speak French or adhere to Quebec values. Legault himself said this morning that increasing the annual immigration rate of 50k would be suicidal.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #178 on: September 29, 2022, 08:07:09 AM »







Constituency polls are a forever, unreliable, news at 11.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #179 on: September 29, 2022, 09:47:02 AM »

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #180 on: September 29, 2022, 09:49:08 AM »

Have constituency polls ever been very accurate?
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EarlAW
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« Reply #181 on: September 29, 2022, 10:20:10 AM »

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

Yes.

But, I'm thinking Segma's numbers sound far more accurate. If they are to be believed, the PCQ is probably winning Chauveau too.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #182 on: September 29, 2022, 07:25:10 PM »

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

Yes.

But, I'm thinking Segma's numbers sound far more accurate. If they are to be believed, the PCQ is probably winning Chauveau too.

I doubt it. I think the PCQ will do better in both Beauce than in Chauveau.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #183 on: September 30, 2022, 09:24:51 AM »

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

Yes.

But, I'm thinking Segma's numbers sound far more accurate. If they are to be believed, the PCQ is probably winning Chauveau too.

I doubt it. I think the PCQ will do better in both Beauce than in Chauveau.

You are correct.


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DL
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« Reply #184 on: September 30, 2022, 10:48:51 AM »

I think one of the reasons why riding polls these days are so grossly inaccurate is that at the riding level you can only get the phone numbers of people with directory listed landline numbers. Its almost impossible to get cell phone numbers at the riding level. This is very problematic when you have two parties QS and PCQ whose support tends to skew very young. Sure pollsters can weight but the problem is that in a typical IVR poll you might literally have just 1 or 2 respondents out of 400 who are 18-35 and if you try to weight those people up to 25% - you can get some very wild distortions
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #185 on: September 30, 2022, 12:53:28 PM »

While I agree with your sentiment, younger people are less likely to vote anyway, so they shouldn't be weighted up to 25% in the first place (though, all the pollsters still do this).

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways Wink

Riding polls obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a electoral geography forum! It's interesting to talk about them, still!
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DL
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« Reply #186 on: September 30, 2022, 01:17:05 PM »

While I agree with your sentiment, younger people are less likely to vote anyway, so they shouldn't be weighted up to 25% in the first place (though, all the pollsters still do this).

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways Wink

Riding polls obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a electoral geography forum! It's interesting to talk about them, still!

Yes for sure sure younger people are less likely to vote than older people - but in a typical riding IVR poll you will have about 70% of the respondents over the age of 65 and about 1% being under 35 - and while its true that 25% of actual voters won't be 18-34 year olds - they also sure as hell won't be just 1% of all voters.

We saw in the Ontario election that Mainstreet's riding polls had one consistent flaw - they almost always grossly underestimated NDP support (not in their province-wide polls just in their riding polls). I think its because their IVR polls only survey elderly people who have directory listed landline numbers.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #187 on: September 30, 2022, 03:38:48 PM »

While I agree with your sentiment, younger people are less likely to vote anyway, so they shouldn't be weighted up to 25% in the first place (though, all the pollsters still do this).

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways Wink

Riding polls obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a electoral geography forum! It's interesting to talk about them, still!

Yes for sure sure younger people are less likely to vote than older people - but in a typical riding IVR poll you will have about 70% of the respondents over the age of 65 and about 1% being under 35 - and while its true that 25% of actual voters won't be 18-34 year olds - they also sure as hell won't be just 1% of all voters.

We saw in the Ontario election that Mainstreet's riding polls had one consistent flaw - they almost always grossly underestimated NDP support (not in their province-wide polls just in their riding polls). I think its because their IVR polls only survey elderly people who have directory listed landline numbers.

That's true, but we did riding polling for QS, and if anything we overestimated them, and they are doing very well among young people. But we were able to get many more cases than "1% under 35", because we were able to include cell phones in the data.
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toaster
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« Reply #188 on: October 01, 2022, 07:26:10 AM »


There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways Wink

I'm curious about this.  How would that work? Most people get their phones at malls and shopping centres that aren't (necessarily) in the riding where they live. Is it based on where the phone is most used?  Wouldn't that be where the person works as opposed to where they live? 
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VPH
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« Reply #189 on: October 01, 2022, 08:36:56 AM »

Keep in mind that this doesn't necessarily say much about the result Monday, but the lowest turnout constituencies so far are:

Ungava, far Northern Quebec, former NDP MP Christine Moore is the PQ candidate, total turnout last election was a measly 30.89% - 9.34%
D'Arcy-McGee, usually a PLQ fortress, one of the most Anglophone in the province, one riding poll showed the PLQ at a very low 40-some % - 12.11%
Jeanne-Mance-Viger, safe PLQ, pretty heavily Italian Saint Leonard - 13.36%
Acadie, safe PLQ, lots of immigrants especially from the MENA region - 13.89%
Saint-Laurent, see above, represented by Marwah Rizqy who I think is one of the PLQ's vanishingly few elected rising stars, 14.23%
Westmount-Saint Louis, safe PLQ, wealthy Anglo Westmount into Downtown Montreal -  15.23%
Robert-Baldwin, safe PLQ, heavily Anglo DDO and Roxboro (on island suburbs), was represented by former finance minister Carlos Leitão - 15.57%
Viau, likely PLQ, a diverse working-class area around St. Michel, QS could make a play for this if they're having a great night - 15.88%
Bourassa-Sauvé, safe PLQ, MTL-Nord, impoverished, heavily Haitian and African - 16.00%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, safe PLQ, diverse in terms of ethnicity and income but primarily Anglo/Allo - 16.27%

Notably, many on the first list already experienced significant turnout dips from 2014 to 2018. If turnout further declines here, it would be a bad sign for closer seats where the PLQ depends on Anglophone and Allophone voters.


Meanwhile, the highest turnout seats are almost all in the traditionally right-leaning Quebec City region, which has pretty strong competition between PCQ and CAQ. The kind of radio stations (colloquially known as radio poubelle or "trash radio") Duhaime used to be on have a large audience around here. There's also some resentment against Montreal lefties. Nonetheless, it would take a large haul to beat out CAQ, who has established dominance in the region.

Louis-Hébert, safe CAQ, suburbs of Quebec City - 41.09%
Lévis, probably safe CAQ, Quebec City suburb where the proposed troisième lien bridge from Quebec City would go to - 35.72%
Chaveau, a possible PCQ pickup but I would guess leaning CAQ right now, exurbs and rural areas northwest of Quebec, Eric Duhaime's chosen seat - 33.94%
Vanier-Les Rivières, likely bordering on safe CAQ, Quebec City suburbs - 33.43%
Charlesbourg, likely CAQ, northern suburbs of Quebec City - 33.18%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, safe CAQ, south of Lévis - 32.25%
Joliette, tossup between CAQ and PQ, not in the Quebec region but in Lanaudière, recently represented by the popular Véronique Hivon (actually gained 2% on 2014 even as the PQ collapsed provincewide) who is not running again - 32.02%
Montmorency, safe CAQ, back to the Quebec City suburbs for this one - 31.87%
Jean-Talon, safe CAQ, Quebec City seat, used to be the PLQ's strongest seat in the area and they won it in 2018 only to lose in a late 2019 byelection - 31.28%
La Prairie, safe CAQ, well-off Francophone Montreal exurbs, Health Minister Christian Dubé's seat - 31.09%
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DL
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« Reply #190 on: October 01, 2022, 11:53:11 AM »

While I agree with your sentiment, younger people are less likely to vote anyway, so they shouldn't be weighted up to 25% in the first place (though, all the pollsters still do this).

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways Wink

Riding polls obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a electoral geography forum! It's interesting to talk about them, still!

Yes for sure sure younger people are less likely to vote than older people - but in a typical riding IVR poll you will have about 70% of the respondents over the age of 65 and about 1% being under 35 - and while its true that 25% of actual voters won't be 18-34 year olds - they also sure as hell won't be just 1% of all voters.

We saw in the Ontario election that Mainstreet's riding polls had one consistent flaw - they almost always grossly underestimated NDP support (not in their province-wide polls just in their riding polls). I think its because their IVR polls only survey elderly people who have directory listed landline numbers.

That's true, but we did riding polling for QS, and if anything we overestimated them, and they are doing very well among young people. But we were able to get many more cases than "1% under 35", because we were able to include cell phones in the data.

My understanding is that it can be possible to include some cell phones in the sample if you are surveying a riding that is all in one "rate centre". So for example if you were doing a poll of Sherbrooke you could get some cell representation. But if you are trying to do a riding poll in Montreal its a different story because there is only a 1 in 25 chance that a cell number is in the riding you want AND that assumes most people even know what riding they live in!
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EarlAW
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« Reply #191 on: October 01, 2022, 01:25:09 PM »


There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways Wink

I'm curious about this.  How would that work? Most people get their phones at malls and shopping centres that aren't (necessarily) in the riding where they live. Is it based on where the phone is most used?  Wouldn't that be where the person works as opposed to where they live? 

You're expecting me to spew trade secrets here? DL is right thought, in less urban ridings, it's easy enough to just call the rate centres in those ridings. That doesn't cut it in Montreal though. But we have some rudimentary methods that are better than nothing. 
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adma
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« Reply #192 on: October 01, 2022, 01:50:48 PM »

Joliette, tossup between CAQ and PQ, not in the Quebec region but in Lanaudière, recently represented by the popular Véronique Hivon (actually gained 2% on 2014 even as the PQ collapsed provincewide) who is not running again - 32.02%

It may be a technical tossup based on '18 numbers; but given that it may have been more of a Hivon than a PQ riding per se, I'm wondering how much of a tossup it *really* is.  (And if the PQ's enjoying a leadership-driven polling bump, I have a feeling that it might be more "distributed" throughout the province than the sort that arbitrarily benefits otherwise-possible-CAQ-sitting-duck open seats like this one)
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VPH
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« Reply #193 on: October 01, 2022, 02:06:26 PM »

Joliette, tossup between CAQ and PQ, not in the Quebec region but in Lanaudière, recently represented by the popular Véronique Hivon (actually gained 2% on 2014 even as the PQ collapsed provincewide) who is not running again - 32.02%

It may be a technical tossup based on '18 numbers; but given that it may have been more of a Hivon than a PQ riding per se, I'm wondering how much of a tossup it *really* is.  (And if the PQ's enjoying a leadership-driven polling bump, I have a feeling that it might be more "distributed" throughout the province than the sort that arbitrarily benefits otherwise-possible-CAQ-sitting-duck open seats like this one)

That might scramble a few seats too. For instance, a leader bump would almost certainly mean flipping back Camille-Laurin (Bourget) and QS' dropping out there probably helps.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #194 on: October 02, 2022, 07:32:48 AM »

Final Léger is out: 38 CAQ (+1), 17 PLQ (+1), QS 15 (-2), PQ 15 (-), PCQ 14 (-1). There will be plenty of tight races, especially in Greater Montreal. PQ is up to 19% in Quebec City, neck and neck with QS and PCQ. Among those very tight races will be SHSA, Camille-Laurin and Chauveau.
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Poirot
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« Reply #195 on: October 02, 2022, 11:03:03 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2022, 11:09:30 PM by Poirot »

Forum research released a poll tonight.

CAQ 36.8
PQ 17.2
PLQ 15.4
PCQ 14.4
QS 14.3
Other 1.9

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3126/caq-in-the-lead/

The final Mainstreet poll

CAQ 41.4
PCQ 16.7
PLQ 14.8
PQ 14
QS 12
Other 1.2

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/Quebec_2022_PDFs/2022-10-02_QC_Daily_Tracker.pdf
Their seat projection: CAQ 105, PLQ 13, QS 6, PQ 1, PCQ 0

Research co

CAQ 41
PLQ 16
PCQ 16
QS 14
PQ 12

https://researchco.ca/2022/10/02/quebec-election-2022-final/
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« Reply #196 on: October 03, 2022, 03:17:31 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 03:22:47 PM by Blue Grit »

Having not followed this campaign at all since it was bound to be a CAQ lock, I'm surprised by the last-minute PQ momentum, though I suppose when you hit rock bottom there's nowhere to go but up. Were they really in any competitive races though, with CAQ or otherwise?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #197 on: October 03, 2022, 03:24:27 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 03:37:29 PM by RogueBeaver »

According to Elections Quebec, turnout as of 12:30 was 29% overall, about 6% today with a bunch of ridings not reporting. Unlike advance polling, there's no partisan pattern to the lowest turnout ridings.

PQ-mentum is really PSPP-mentum, his Layton-esque positivity and strong debate performances gave him a profile he'd previously lacked except among political junkies. PQ will be competing with CAQ in, among others, Camille-Laurin, Bonaventure, Gaspé, IDM and Marie-Victorin. Pascal Bérubé only faces nominal opposition.

Surprised by the last-minute PQ momentum, though I suppose when you hit rock bottom there's nowhere to go but up. Were they really in any competitive races though, with CAQ or otherwise?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #198 on: October 03, 2022, 04:08:22 PM »

Voted. The queue was like 100 persons long when I left (12 precincts in voting station).
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jaichind
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« Reply #199 on: October 03, 2022, 04:12:49 PM »

When do the polls close?
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