Quebec 2022 Election
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Author Topic: Quebec 2022 Election  (Read 17627 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #150 on: September 24, 2022, 06:21:06 PM »

Amazing to see PQ and PLQ which used to combine for a vote share of the high 80s in the 1980s and 1990s now poll together around the mid-20s.

Realignment took a while to trickle down, but the CAQ have for a while been the beneficiaries of the breakdown of polarization over separatism/hard nationalism. Partially this was just generational turnover creating an electorate tired of that debate, partially it is those older voters are now forced to vote within a new system and are following the winds of change.

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.
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adma
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« Reply #151 on: September 24, 2022, 07:46:45 PM »

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)
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« Reply #152 on: September 24, 2022, 07:52:33 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2022, 07:57:06 PM by Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil »

Amazing to see PQ and PLQ which used to combine for a vote share of the high 80s in the 1980s and 1990s now poll together around the mid-20s.

Realignment took a while to trickle down, but the CAQ have for a while been the beneficiaries of the breakdown of polarization over separatism/hard nationalism. Partially this was just generational turnover creating an electorate tired of that debate, partially it is those older voters are now forced to vote within a new system and are following the winds of change.

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.
Combined vote share of PQ+PLQ:
1981: 95.33%
1985: 93.68%
1989: 90.11%
1994: 89.15%
1998: 86.42%
2003: 79.23%
2007: 61.43%
2008: 77.25%
2012: 63.15%
2014: 66.90%
2018: 41.88%
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« Reply #153 on: September 25, 2022, 09:35:32 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2022, 09:46:41 AM by The Thinking Man's Orangewoman »

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)
If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities. The CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #154 on: September 25, 2022, 09:38:41 AM »

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)
If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities the CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.

And the Greens as insane, irrelevent kooks.
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« Reply #155 on: September 25, 2022, 09:43:06 AM »

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)
If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities the CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.

And the Greens as insane, irrelevent kooks.

Saanich–Gulf Îles de la Madeleine
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MaxQue
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« Reply #156 on: September 25, 2022, 09:46:53 AM »

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)
If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities the CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.

And the Greens as insane, irrelevent kooks.

Saanich–Gulf Îles de la Madeleine

Oh, no, the Quebec Greens are more Moscow than anything else.
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discovolante
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« Reply #157 on: September 25, 2022, 09:49:25 AM »

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)
If you wanted to be really trollish, you could say that Québec's party system is actually converging on Canada's federal one, just adjusted for local sensibilities the CAQ as the Liberal analogue squatting like a toad across the political spectrum, the PCQ as a post-Harper CPC-esque hard-right awkward squad, QS as Singh's NDP sitting on the sidelines forever, never quite reaching the voters it says it would like to reach, and the PLQ as the Bloc, having shed its air of invincibility but still able to represent a section of voters that possibly can't be durably integrated into any other party's coalition without causing friction elsewhere. Obviously this is a very reductive and cartoonish analogy, and you could poke plenty of holes in it, but it might just suggest one possible future trajectory.

And the Greens as insane, irrelevent kooks.

Saanich–Gulf Îles de la Madeleine

Oh, no, the Quebec Greens are more Moscow than anything else.

The joke was intended as spitballing an analogy of the federal Greens with the PQ (past their sell-by date, weird regionalist coalition including islands + Huh, can't even get a leader with a seat anymore).
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adma
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« Reply #158 on: September 25, 2022, 10:09:58 AM »

Interestingly, the Quebec Greens *have* done mid-teens credibly in the past in places like NDG, so the opportunity *could have been* there for them to become an "Anglo QS", but...no.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #159 on: September 26, 2022, 10:23:43 AM »

There was 3 more riding polls by Mainstreet last night:

Matane-Matapédia: PQ 63, CAQ 22, PCQ 7, QS 3
Pontiac: PLQ 41, CAQ 23, PCQ 17, PQ 8, QS 6
Marquette: PLQ 43, CAQ 29, PQ 9, PCQ 9, QS 5
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« Reply #160 on: September 26, 2022, 12:57:22 PM »

You missed the polls from the previous day. CAQ is a head in Chaveau. I guess we know why MS keeps projecting the Tories at 0 seats despite being second in PV.

Also, Segma came out with a poll today showing Hull is essentially a 3 way race. Might be cool if QS can win it.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #161 on: September 26, 2022, 01:02:42 PM »

You missed the polls from the previous day. CAQ is a head in Chaveau. I guess we know why MS keeps projecting the Tories at 0 seats despite being second in PV.

Also, Segma came out with a poll today showing Hull is essentially a 3 way race. Might be cool if QS can win it.

No one knows for sure how many seats the PCQ will win - if any. I'd say it's quite probable they will at least win Chauveau.

On that subject, Mainstreet did a Chauveau riding poll:
CAQ 47, PCQ 34, PQ 8, PLQ 5, QS 4

Also, a La Pinière one:
PLQ 41, CAQ 26, PCQ 12, PQ 11, QS 8

EDIT: Legault suspending his campaign and back in his office to deal with the hurricane, forecasted to hit Iles-de-la-Madeleine dead on.
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« Reply #162 on: September 26, 2022, 01:59:55 PM »

Oops, I'm the one that missed it then.

Does anyone think the PCQ has a chance in either Beauce riding?
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toaster
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« Reply #163 on: September 26, 2022, 04:17:25 PM »


while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters. 

The people of Rouyn-Noranda - Témiscamingue are millennial cosmopolitan hipsters?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #164 on: September 26, 2022, 04:59:54 PM »


while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters. 

The people of Rouyn-Noranda - Témiscamingue are millennial cosmopolitan hipsters?

Yes. A large chunk of their vote in the 2018 election came from the polls around the universities, reflecting how the voting population that services said institutions often holds views similar to the student population, who may not be registered to vote in said area. But that of course was only part of their 2018 coalition, as you are alluding to.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #165 on: September 26, 2022, 05:15:06 PM »

Also:



This is a seat the QS actually could have won based on 2018.
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adma
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« Reply #166 on: September 26, 2022, 05:37:17 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2022, 05:40:27 PM by adma »


while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.

The people of Rouyn-Noranda - Témiscamingue are millennial cosmopolitan hipsters?

Yes. A large chunk of their vote in the 2018 election came from the polls around the universities, reflecting how the voting population that services said institutions often holds views similar to the student population, who may not be registered to vote in said area. But that of course was only part of their 2018 coalition, as you are alluding to.

Also, I was referring to millennial-cosmopolitan-hipsters relative to the catchbasin of urban-core votes which have hitherto defaulted Liberal.  And in a way, said "millennial cosmopolitan hipsters" are a sort of melting pot that's really the ultimate postmodern entity relative to the federalism vs nationalism wars--which is how they've come to squat so efficiently upon former urban-left PQ/BQ strongholds far more so than former nuclear-Liberal strongholds, and which is why they're the last real organic bulwark (with REB-style exceptions) of post-Orange Crush federal NDP support remaining in QC.  They're Mile End types, not NDG types--in a way, the legacy-Liberal electoral monolith that has ruled in the latter for decades is too "monocultural" for their liking...
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toaster
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« Reply #167 on: September 26, 2022, 07:08:48 PM »

Sounds to me like neither of you have ever been to Rouyn Noranda.  The QS support in this region comes from labour left, not millennial cosmopolitan hipster. UQAT in Rouyn has a few thousand students, this is not a University town like Sherbrooke. That's like saying the NDP support on the other side of the border in Timmins or Hearst is millennial cosmopolitan hipster because there happens to be a University within the borders of the ridings. I understand that the QS support here doesn't support your definition of who you think the QS voter is - that's why I'm bringing it up.  It may be the outlier or exception, but it shows that electorates outside of that cosmo hipster have given the QS a chance.  Although it's looking like Émilise will lose this time around.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #168 on: September 26, 2022, 07:31:30 PM »

QS had a bigger lead in the Témiscamingue part than the Rouyn-Noranda part (roughly 60 votes lead in Rouyn-Noranda).
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adma
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« Reply #169 on: September 26, 2022, 08:01:09 PM »

Sounds to me like neither of you have ever been to Rouyn Noranda.  The QS support in this region comes from labour left, not millennial cosmopolitan hipster. UQAT in Rouyn has a few thousand students, this is not a University town like Sherbrooke. That's like saying the NDP support on the other side of the border in Timmins or Hearst is millennial cosmopolitan hipster because there happens to be a University within the borders of the ridings. I understand that the QS support here doesn't support your definition of who you think the QS voter is - that's why I'm bringing it up.  It may be the outlier or exception, but it shows that electorates outside of that cosmo hipster have given the QS a chance.  Although it's looking like Émilise will lose this time around.

*However*, Rouyn-Noranda's irrelevant to the Montreal-specific point I'm trying to make, much like Charlie Angus's federal rule in Timmins-James Bay is irrelevant to a similar point to be made about the ONDP in Toronto.  (Or even more so, REB's pattern of federal successes and near-successes in Berthier-Maskinonge is irrelevant to the matter of the federal NDP's current base of QC electoral support in Montreal.)

I was never claiming QS was *exclusively* a millennial-cosmopolitan-hipster phenomenon--indeed, R-N goes a way to explaining how their appeal's more inherently "big tent" than imagined--however, when it comes to those who opt for them *in Montreal*, that truly is a prominent undercurrent when it comes to "impressions".  And which exists at a deep disconnect from the "establishment Anglo" Liberalcentric W Island, but is also more piquant and nuanced than the former PQ rule around those presently-QS parts...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #170 on: September 27, 2022, 06:40:18 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2022, 08:24:11 AM by RogueBeaver »

Léger's latest has CAQ 37 (-1), QS 17 (+1), PLQ 16 (-), PQ 15 (+2), PCQ 15 (-1). He says PSPP-mentum can be credited to his Layton-style positivity and not to assume the Grits will be official opposition. OTOH Legault will benefit from a Boomer bonus. PLQ is in trouble in La Pinière, Laporte, Saint Henri-Sainte-Anne, Verdun, Viau and Laval among others. PCQ is topped out in his view due to minimal second choices.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #171 on: September 27, 2022, 04:14:29 PM »

And now we have EKOS:
CAQ 35, QS 21, PQ 15, PLQ 14, PCQ 12

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2022/09/quebec-election-2022-caq-in-cruise-control-for-second-mandate/

Leger will have its final poll published this weekend.
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Poirot
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« Reply #172 on: September 27, 2022, 04:24:08 PM »

I don't like the big differences in polling. Qs is either at 21% Ekos or 11% Mainstreet. PCQ is 12% Ekos or 17% Mainstreet. If you do an average you get Léger, opposition parties in the mid teens.
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Poirot
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« Reply #173 on: September 27, 2022, 04:39:47 PM »

The trend of more voters casting ballots before election day continues. 22.9% have already voted.

Quebec City region is where advanced voting was more popular. I think overall they vote more.

Louis-Hébert 39,50%   So half of all votes probably already cast!
Lévis 33,77 %
Chauveau 32,53%
Vanier-Les-Rivières 31,94%
Charlesbourg 31,74%

Ridings with low advance voting are mostly Liberal Montreal island ridings, not really contested.

Ungava 6,96%
D’Arcy-McGee 10,55%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 12,44%
Acadie 12,66%
Saint-Laurent 12,83%

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/voter-turnout/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #174 on: September 27, 2022, 06:32:15 PM »

Léger is the most accurate public pollster, I have complete trust in him. We have no idea about cannibalization, but I do wonder if lower Grit turnout is an omen like it was on election day 4 years ago.
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