Quebec 2022 Election

[toaster]

I watched the debate.  A lot of compliments for Ontario in the debate, that was a surprise. Duhaime has a way of making his ideas seems less extreme when he speaks, I don't think the opposition did a good job at pointing just how extreme his private healthcare idea is. I do think Legault did what he needed to do to stay in power, relatively inoffensive showing.  Anglade and St-Pierre Plamondon I think needed to do much better to get any kind of traction, and weren't able to.

My interpretation of how well each leader did from best to worst:
Duhaime
Legault
Nadeau-Dubois
Anglade
St-Pierre Plamondon

[MaxQue]

Candidate fillings are now closed:

CAQ/PCQ/PQ/QS: 125
PLQ: 124 (missing Matane-Matapédia!)
Green Party: 73
Climat Québec (Martine Ouellet plaything): 54
Démocratie Directe (right-wing direct democracy): 28
Canadian Party (Equality Party nostalgics): 20
Independents: 14
Bloc Montréal (Balarama Holness plaything): 13
Parti marxiste-léniniste: 12
Équipe autonomiste (ADQ nostalgics): 10
L'Union fait la force (left-wing direct democracy): 9
Parti nul (i.e. none of the above): 9
Parti 51 (want to join USA): 5
Alliance pour la famille et la communauté (poor parents are the victim of child services): 2 (Verdun and Laviolette--Saint-Maurice)
Parti culinaire (food nuts): 2 (Laurier-Dorion and Gouin)
Parti humain (vaguely vague, progressive and new age, their website is full of stock pictures in English and they have a slogan that doesn't respect syntax ''Parce que d'autre chose est possible): 2 (Bertrand and Prévost)
Parti accès propriété et équité (housing to be a priority equal to health and education): 1 (Bourassa-Sauvé)
Parti libertarien: 1 (Lac-Saint-Jean)
Union nationale (freemen of the land): 1 (Abitibi-Ouest)

[MaxQue]

The constituency with the most candidates is Verdun, with 11 (CAQ, PLQ, QS, PQ, PCQ, Green, Canadian, Climat Québec, Marxist-Leninist, Nul and Alliance pour la famille et les communautés).

13 constituencies have 5 candidates, 12 of them CAQ/PLQ/QS/PQ/PCQ and 1 (Matane-Matapédia) with CAQ/QS/PQ/PCQ/L'Union fait la force.

[Poirot]

Three parties have the name of the leader in the official party name (and appear on the ballot): CAQ, PCQ and Bloc Montreal.

[Poirot]

There are some debate performance numbers.

Mainstreet asked which leader won the first debate:
Legault 18%
St-Pierre Plamondon 16%
Nadeau-Dubois 15%
Duhaime 15%
Anglade 8%
Undecided 28%

Léger for TVA on who won the debate:
Nadeau-Dubois18%
St-Pierre Plamondon 16%
Duhaime 10%
Legault 9%
Anglade 3%

St-Pierre Plamondon did the best in surpassing expectations. They were very low sinceon questions like who would make best premier or will win the debate the result can be counted on one hand.
28% say he did better than what they expected, 20% met expectations, 16% worse than what they expected
Nadeau-Dubois: did better 22%, same 28%, worse 16%
Duhaime:  better 14%, same 29%, worse 21%
Anglade: better 6%, same 30%, worse 29%
Legault: better 4%, same 30%, worse 36%

Legault had the highest expectations, I think 30% thought he would win.

[MaxQue]

New Leger poll is CAQ 38, PLQ 16, QS 16, PCQ 16, PQ 13.

[Hatman 🍁]

Three parties have the name of the leader in the official party name (and appear on the ballot): CAQ, PCQ and Bloc Montreal.

I hate this practice. It's done a lot in municipal elections in Quebec too.

[RogueBeaver]

Legault apologizes to Carol Dubé, Joyce Echaquan's widower, for claiming in the debate that he had spoken to Dubé and that the hospital problems were solved. Dubé told La Presse today that nothing had changed there since his wife's death.

Anglade already calling for strategic voting.

[MaxQue]

There will be a full slate of Liberal candidates, the Superior Court is ordering the Election Director to add the Liberal candidate on the ballot, saying it wasn't reasonable to reject the form because it wasn't initialized.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Three parties have the name of the leader in the official party name (and appear on the ballot): CAQ, PCQ and Bloc Montreal.

I hate this practice. It's done a lot in municipal elections in Quebec too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why am I not surprised the leader of the Conservatives is a radio host?

[jaichind]

Most likely this has been covered but can someone explain why PCQ is polling around the same as PLQ but is expected to win no seats while PLQ is expected to win a seat count in the teens?  I assume this is because PLQ has stronghold seats in Montreal but weak elsewhere while PCQ are stronger in places where CAQ are strong which means they have no chances at winning seats.

[JimJamUK]

Most likely this has been covered but can someone explain why PCQ is polling around the same as PLQ but is expected to win no seats while PLQ is expected to win a seat count in the teens?  I assume this is because PLQ has stronghold seats in Montreal but weak elsewhere while PCQ are stronger in places where CAQ are strong which means they have no chances at winning seats.

The PLQ is entirely an Anglophone party which means their vote is very concentrated and doesn’t face much competition from the other parties, while the PCQ has a more diverse vote that is spread out and as you say competes with a much stronger CAQ party.

[Hatman 🍁]

No one knows for sure how many seats the PCQ will win - if any. I'd say it's quite probable they will at least win Chauveau.

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/08/31/quebec-liberal-party-leader-urges-win-butler-accusers-to-file-formal-complaints/

Will the incel nation of Quebec swing even more against the PLQ over this crucifixion of the landfill indie icons who singlehandedly gentrified the heart out of Mile End? Many people are saying this

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Why am I not surprised the leader of the Conservatives is a radio host?

That's the unsurprising part - the more surprising part might be that he's the first openly gay leader of a Quebec political party

[RogueBeaver]

André Boisclair was the first openly gay leader of a Quebec political party 15 years ago.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

André Boisclair was the first openly gay leader of a Quebec political party 15 years ago.

And apparently Manon Massé is too. I stand corrected, I shouldn't believe everything people say on the internet lol

[Poirot]

I think I remember the Duhaime thing, it was first gay leader of a conservative party in Canada or North America. Could not tell if it's true. Maybe the region got left off.

There are five themes for tonight's debate.
Environment
Cost of living and the economy
Health
Education and services to citizens
French, immigration and identity

[adma]

*Openly* gay; as opposed to cases like former NB premier Richard Hatfield.

Most likely this has been covered but can someone explain why PCQ is polling around the same as PLQ but is expected to win no seats while PLQ is expected to win a seat count in the teens?  I assume this is because PLQ has stronghold seats in Montreal but weak elsewhere while PCQ are stronger in places where CAQ are strong which means they have no chances at winning seats.

The PLQ is entirely an Anglophone party which means their vote is very concentrated and doesn’t face much competition from the other parties, while the PCQ has a more diverse vote that is spread out and as you say competes with a much stronger CAQ party.

Well, it's been cornered into being "entirely Anglophone"; or at least, the only real "Laurentian Elite" Anglo option--when it was in power, PLQ was more of a big tent for non-separatists and the "floating middle"...

[Hatman 🍁]

If this poll is anywhere close to true, the Liberals are in deep trouble. They won 92% of the vote there in 2018.

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1573087674357125120

But it also shows the Conservatives haven't really made significant inroads into the Anglo community.

[MaxQue]

There was also another riding poll (they announced they will do 11) in Camille-Laurin (CAQ held seat in Eastern Montreal, PQ leader is running there) which has CAQ 38, PQ 26, QS 19, PLQ 10, PCQ 6.

[MaxQue]

No one knows for sure how many seats the PCQ will win - if any. I'd say it's quite probable they will at least win Chauveau.

On that subject, Mainstreet did a Chauveau riding poll:
CAQ 47, PCQ 34, PQ 8, PLQ 5, QS 4

Also, a La Pinière one:
PLQ 41, CAQ 26, PCQ 12, PQ 11, QS 8

EDIT: Legault suspending his campaign and back in his office to deal with the hurricane, forecasted to hit Iles-de-la-Madeleine dead on.

[adma]

If this poll is anywhere close to true, the Liberals are in deep trouble. They won 92% of the vote there in 2018.

clipped for space

But it also shows the Conservatives haven't really made significant inroads into the Anglo community.

Yeah, it makes me think of some of those UK results in deep-Labour seats in the '10s where the old nuclear landslide margins vanished yet the opposition's atomized in a whole lot of Tory/UKIP/whatever ways, thus maintaining a carapace of apparent "safety"...

[jaichind]

Amazing to see PQ and PLQ which used to combine for a vote share of the high 80s in the 1980s and 1990s now poll together around the mid-20s.