Quebec 2022 Election
Poirot:
Quote from: DL on April 22, 2022, 03:07:32 PM
Quote from: Poirot on April 10, 2022, 10:38:56 PM
Eric Duhaime has chosen to run in Chauveau in Quebec city region. It was Gerard Deltell's provincial riding. His campaign director will be former Conservative federal minister Josée Verner. He also has the support of Senator Boisvenu (Charest supporter) and Yves Lévesque former Trois-Rivières mayor and Poilievre supporter.
It has been a quick rise for Duhaime. The party is doing well in fundraising and it has 57,000 members. Duhaime said Chauveau has the most members.
In Quebec City, the PCQ is against the tramway project. It proposes a bridge between Quebec City and Lévis instead of the CAQ tunnel.
Article in English on Duhaime.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-conservative-party-covid-19-eric-duhaime-1.6415046
I suspect that the challenge for PCQ is that all the seats they would target are currently CAQ seats and right now CAQ and Legault are still very popular. In 2018 the CAQ won Chauveau by 25 points! If and when the CAQ and Legault become unpopular there could be an opportunity for the the PCQ to gain protest votes and possibly win seats. But how do they win any CAQ seats in an election that is likely to be a huge CAQ landslide?
The party would need high voter concentration.
The son of Léger has published some numbers by administrative regions from the polls done since the start of the year (I imagine to have a sample big enough).
The PCQ does better in Chaudière-Appalaches with 27%, Capitale Nationale with 22% and Centre du Québec with 18%.
In all regions CAQ is over 40% except Montreal. It has 57% in Lanaudière, 52% Laurentides and 48% in Montérégie.
In Montreal, the PLQ has 36%, CAQ 27% and QS 15%.
Poirot:
The latest Léger poll has the CAQ in dominant position. It gets 46% of voting intentions, followed by the PLQ at 18%, PCQ 14%, QS 13% and PQ 8%.
By gender, CAQ voter is more female, PLQ and QS have an even male and female vote, PCQ and PQ are more male. Female vote is CAQ 50% followed by PLQ at 18%. Male vote CAQ 41%, PLQ 18%.
By age CAQ dominates the 55 years and older group with a big 65% followed by Liberals at 17% with the other parties in single digit. In the 35 to 54 year old, CAQ has 31%, PCQ is close at 28% and PLQ 21%. QS is first among 18 to 34 year old with 33%, CAQ 29%, PLQ 15%, PCQ 11%. If the older folks get out to vote more, CAQ could get more support than polls show.
Francophone voters: CAQ 53, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 10, PLQ 9.
Non francophone: PLQ 48%, PCQ 19%, CAQ 18%, QS 8%.
I don't know if it's a smaller sample blip but was surprised to see PCQ doing better with the non francophone group than francophone.
In the Quebec City metro census region, CAQ eads with 43% with PCQ second at 25%, QS at 16%, PLQ and PQ at 8%.
Greater Montreal census region, CAQ 40, PLQ 25, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 7.
Rest of Quebec, CAQ 53, PCQ 13, PLQ and QS 12, PQ 9.
brucejoel99:
The story of Quebec right now basically seems like a party figured out that if they offered Quebecers nationalism without separatism's baggage, federalists & separatists alike would flock to them & crown them the head of a one-party province.
MaxQue:
Quote from: Poirot on May 28, 2022, 08:33:26 PM
The latest Léger poll has the CAQ in dominant position. It gets 46% of voting intentions, followed by the PLQ at 18%, PCQ 14%, QS 13% and PQ 8%.
By gender, CAQ voter is more female, PLQ and QS have an even male and female vote, PCQ and PQ are more male. Female vote is CAQ 50% followed by PLQ at 18%. Male vote CAQ 41%, PLQ 18%.
By age CAQ dominates the 55 years and older group with a big 65% followed by Liberals at 17% with the other parties in single digit. In the 35 to 54 year old, CAQ has 31%, PCQ is close at 28% and PLQ 21%. QS is first among 18 to 34 year old with 33%, CAQ 29%, PLQ 15%, PCQ 11%. If the older folks get out to vote more, CAQ could get more support than polls show.
Francophone voters: CAQ 53, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 10, PLQ 9.
Non francophone: PLQ 48%, PCQ 19%, CAQ 18%, QS 8%.
I don't know if it's a smaller sample blip but was surprised to see PCQ doing better with the non francophone group than francophone.
In the Quebec City metro census region, CAQ eads with 43% with PCQ second at 25%, QS at 16%, PLQ and PQ at 8%.
Greater Montreal census region, CAQ 40, PLQ 25, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 7.
Rest of Quebec, CAQ 53, PCQ 13, PLQ and QS 12, PQ 9.
The PCQ had pretty much endorsed opposing language laws, as government overreach.
DL:
Its really quite extraordinary how the Parti Quebecois was the a major party in Quebec politics for the last 50 years and was the government as recently as 2014 - and now they are polling in single digits and are likely to be wiped off the map! This is like what happened to the Union Nationale in 1973 when they lost all their seats.
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