Quebec 2022 Election

[Benjamin Frank]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.

Is that people moving from Ottawa to the Outaouais? Is that for cheaper housing prices?

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1569757806210830336

[Hatman 🍁]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.

Is that people moving from Ottawa to the Outaouais? Is that for cheaper housing prices?

Rent and housing is much cheaper, but with the increased taxes it evens out.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

[Oryxslayer]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

[RogueBeaver]

The last week has been about, among other topics, immigration and Duhaime's delinquency on his school and property taxes. Also, PSPP told the Canadian Press he wants to stay as leader after the election and will put it up to members next year. If Bérubé is the sole survivor then that'd obv be a very tough sell, but so long as members wanna keep the party alive IDK who else would be interested. Today all party leaders except Duhaime are preparing for tomorrow night's Face-a-Face debate.

[mileslunn]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

If it closely mirrors federal Tory vote, then probably get over 10 seats as federal Tories in last four elections have consistently been in high teens like PCQ is now polling but won around 10 seats each time.  In 2006 when federal Tories first broke through in Quebec, many wrongly used uniform swing showing despite huge jump in support from 2004, party would only win a handful of seats.  Instead because votes concentrated enough it won 10 seats and has largely stayed around there.

Even in 2015 when party went from 5 to 12 seats, its share of popular vote was unchanged.  Its just it went up in areas that mattered while went down in areas they had no chance of winning anyways.

Now not saying PCQ will follow federal Tory strongholds, just if does they likely do better in seats than many think.

[Poirot]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.

Is that people moving from Ottawa to the Outaouais? Is that for cheaper housing prices?

Rent and housing is much cheaper, but with the increased taxes it evens out.

Yes, it's for housing.
I found an article that says in the year 2020-2021 4,000 to 4,500 Ontarians came live in Gatineau.
In the 2021 census there were 5,000 more unilingual anglophones in Gatineau than in the 2016 census. We were talking about Pontiac so only the west side of Gatineau but some people probably went there.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

The Mainstreet crosstabs had it at CAQ 40-30 PCQ in the Québec RMR. They might be overestimating Duhaime but I have a hard time believing that they don't win any seats with that sort of distribution.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

That's a good point, and I think Duhaime is trying to find a secondary base by picking off more right-leaning Anglo and allophone Liberals in Montreal and Laval.

As I see it, CAQ is trying to finish off the PQ by picking up their voters, while the PCQ is picking up CAQistes on the right end of the party - while also picking up more right-wing Liberals.

[adma]

Even in 2015 when party went from 5 to 12 seats, its share of popular vote was unchanged.  Its just it went up in areas that mattered while went down in areas they had no chance of winning anyways.

Or even more properly, it went down in areas where the Justin Liberals repatriated the "floating federalist" support that had parked in the Con camp over the '06-08-11 Liberal doldrums interval.

[Poirot]

For the September 15th debate there are three big blocs of topics.

Environment, quality of life, economy
Health, family, education
Immigration, language, identity

49% think the second one is most important to them, 39% the first and 9% the third.
34% may change their vote
30% think Legault will win, 11% Duhaime, 9% Nadeau-Dubois, 6% Anglade, 4% St-Pierre Plamondon

[toaster]

Was looking at a map of predictions.  Can someone tell me how it is legal in Canada for a riding to not be fully connected in Quebec (see Vaudreuil) when the separating part is not water?

[MaxQue]

Was looking at a map of predictions.  Can someone tell me how it is legal in Canada for a riding to not be fully connected in Quebec (see Vaudreuil) when the separating part is not water?

It's an exclave of Vaudreuil-Dorion city.

[RogueBeaver]

New Léger has the CAQ under 40 for the first time in almost 3 years, a yellow light but without consequence for now because the opposition remains completely divided. He says most of the slide is from young voters. QS and PQ both +2, PLQ and PCQ +1. Interestingly, respondents still think Legault is running the best campaign and PQ is their top second choice. Legault will benefit from a ballot box bonus (Bourassa's famous prime à l'urne) due to his yuge lead with older voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Why riding polls are sh*t"

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1570384152377151489

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1569423103180111881

Do we think the voters in Sherbrooke have shifted that much in less than a week?

[Hatman 🍁]

New Léger has the CAQ under 40 for the first time in almost 3 years, a yellow light but without consequence for now because the opposition remains completely divided. He says most of the slide is from young voters. QS and PQ both +2, PLQ and PCQ +1. Interestingly, respondents still think Legault is running the best campaign and PQ is their top second choice. Legault will benefit from a ballot box bonus (Bourassa's famous prime à l'urne) due to his yuge lead with older voters.

So in other words, if they weighted by turnout (as I believe all pollsters should be doing), the CAQ would have higher numbers.

[MaxQue]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

The Mainstreet crosstabs had it at CAQ 40-30 PCQ in the Québec RMR. They might be overestimating Duhaime but I have a hard time believing that they don't win any seats with that sort of distribution.

Mainstreet has a very jumpy tracker and poor track record. The crosstabs of the big 3000 Leger poll (a much better pollster) has the CAQ leading 44-25 in Quebec City region and 48-29 in Chaudière-Appalaches.

For some reason, Mainstreet shows the PCQ do way better with the 18-35 demographic than any other pollster.

If we take the regional crosstabs, for each party:
CAQ: Best region is Côte-Nord/Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean (55%), worst is Montreal (15%)
PLQ: Best region is Montreal (35%), worst is Quebec City (5%)
QS: Best regions are Montreal and Abitibi-Témiscamingue/Nord-du-Québec (21%), worst is Chaudière-Appalaches (9%)
PCQ: Best region is Chaudière-Appalaches (29%), worst are Abitibi-Témiscamingue/Nord-du-Québec  and Bas-St-Laurent/Gaspésie/Îles-de-la-Madeleine (7%)
PQ: Best region is Bas-St-Laurent/Gaspésie/Îles-de-la-Madeleine (24%), worst is Chaudière-Appalaches (6%)

[MaxQue]

"Why riding polls are sh*t"

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1570384152377151489

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1569423103180111881

Do we think the voters in Sherbrooke have shifted that much in less than a week?

No, but we ought to think Mainstreet is a trash pollster. Quantity over quality.

[If my soul was made of stone]

"Why riding polls are sh*t"

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1570384152377151489

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1569423103180111881

Do we think the voters in Sherbrooke have shifted that much in less than a week?

If they do somehow end up voting CAQ, I'll eat Jean Charest's old cowboy hat.

[MaxQue]

The Segma poll in Sherbrooke is also a St-François poll, where they see QS leading 34-33. While I think St-François is winnable in a good day for QS, I think it would require a larger lead in Sherbrooke.

https://www.fm1077.ca/nouvelles/508004/sondage-la-tribune-fm107-7-mince-avance-de-la-solidaire-dans-sherbrooke (includes age crosstabs for Sherbrooke).

[Hatman 🍁]

You can see QS's problem in the age crosstabs, again. Losing badly in the 65+ category.

[DL]

Regarding riding polls, I have said it before and i will say it again. In the era of mobile phones, it is now almost impossible to draw a random sample at the riding level - especially in urban areas. In the recent Ontario election Mainstreet and Forum did a slew of riding polls that were almost uniformly highly, highly, highly inaccurate. For some reason these IVR polls at the riding level always seemed to grossly underestimate the NDP vote. Something similar happened in the federal election last year. For example Mainstreet did a riding poll in Davenport that had the Liberal beating the NDP by 30 points - it ended up being the closest race in Canada with the Liberals winning by 65 votes (0.1%)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

For a moment I thought those QS numbers were for the whole thing and nearly had a heart attack. Thought it was about time for me to start learning French and planning my move to Montreal when I apply for refugee status.

[RogueBeaver]

Crosstalk summarizes this debate. IDK if it changes anything, don't think anyone particularly distinguished themselves. Reminded me a lot of the Ontario debate.