Quebec 2022 Election

(1/62) > >>

mileslunn:
Largely a snoozer at this point as seems highly unlikely CAQ don't get re-elected, but battle for second place could get interesting.

CAQ: Barring some major scandal or mistake, I don't see how they do not get re-elected.  That being said numbers have come down to earth a bit and aren't in high 40s/low 50s anymore so share of popular vote may not be that much above the 37% they got in 2018.  But with opposition so badly divided, should easily win a majority.

PLQ: Party's raison d'etre was to stop another referendum and was never coherent in ideology with people across political spectrum.  Fact Charest now running for Conservative leader and Mulcair former NDP leader in same party says a lot.  They seem to increasingly becoming an Anglophone and Allophone party with very limited support amongst Francophones.

QS: They may come in second, but very distant and support very concentrated in urban cores and university towns.  They appeal to your left wing millennials, but too left wing to make big gains.

PQ: They may be in their death spiral.  Left flank gone over to QS who are pro sovereignty but progressive while right flank mostly to CAQ who are nationalist but not separatist (I think at this point most realize a sovereign Quebec is not coming anytime soon if ever).  They may hold some in Gaspesie region and perhaps even North Shore which are quite traditionalist but cannot see beyond that.

PCQ: Two polls put them in second place and now in high teens maybe low 20s.  No doubt Eric Duhaime being a popular radio show host helps.  Any seats won probably in Quebec City region and areas nearby, so similar to federal Tories.  Also could split votes enough that deny CAQ many seats although not likely enough to cost majority.  At same time if make it through to Fall with no further covid restrictions, that might sap a lot of their support as I believe much of their support is over opposition to covid restrictions which are mostly gone by now so as that finds into rear view could see many return to CAQ.

Poirot:
We are in the sixth wave but the government doesn't seem to want to reinstate restrictions. Usually the summer is a more tame period for the pandemic so in September it shouldn't be a big problem. In mid-April the plan was to lift the restriction on wearing maks in indoor public places. Many experts say we should keep the mask. If we do Duhaime could denounce this restriction and we would would be the only place in North America requiring masks.

Angus Reid had a poll for all provinces. For Quebec it had CAQ at 33%, PLQ and PCQ at 19%, QS at 16% and PQ 9%. It was done before the budget which gave 500$ to every adult earning less than $100,000.

https://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-march-2022/

What I find interesting about the numbers is the movements between parties from the 2018 vote.
CAQ retains two thirds of their 2018 vote  but lose 26% to PCQ and 4% to PQ. PQ only retains 43% of their vote, losing 28% to CAQ, 15% to PCQ and 11% to QS.

CAQ also gains just over 10% of the QS and PLQ 2018 voters. So CAQ has become the governing center party option, leaving traditional party of PQ and PLQ in trouble while the two more extreme options of QS and PCQ fight for the discontent and outspoken opposition.

QS retains 72% of its vote, losing around 10% to CAQ and PCQ, and 4% to PQ.  PLQ retains 71% of it's past voters. losing 12% to CAQ, 9% to PCQ and 4% to QS. There are some people who have pitched the idea of forming a new political party to defend the interests of non-francophones. If it happens it's not good news for the PLQ but it could also be a fringe thing if they have no money or high profile people supporting it.

Poirot:
Eric Duhaime has chosen to run in Chauveau in Quebec city region. It was Gerard Deltell's provincial riding. His campaign director will be former Conservative federal minister Josée Verner.  He also has the support of Senator Boisvenu (Charest supporter) and Yves Lévesque former Trois-Rivières mayor and Poilievre supporter.

It has been a quick rise for Duhaime. The party is doing well in fundraising and it has 57,000 members. Duhaime said Chauveau has the most members.

In Quebec City, the PCQ is against the tramway project. It proposes a bridge between Quebec City and Lévis instead of the CAQ tunnel.

Article in English on Duhaime.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-conservative-party-covid-19-eric-duhaime-1.6415046

RogueBeaver:
Update on open seats: Véronique Hivon announced this morning she won't run again, as expected. Joliette should be a CAQ pickup. In response to the CHSLD scandal Danielle McCann and Marguerite Blais are being retired. More PLQ and PQ big names are also expected to retire.

DL:
Quote from: Poirot on April 10, 2022, 10:38:56 PM

Eric Duhaime has chosen to run in Chauveau in Quebec city region. It was Gerard Deltell's provincial riding. His campaign director will be former Conservative federal minister Josée Verner.  He also has the support of Senator Boisvenu (Charest supporter) and Yves Lévesque former Trois-Rivières mayor and Poilievre supporter.

It has been a quick rise for Duhaime. The party is doing well in fundraising and it has 57,000 members. Duhaime said Chauveau has the most members.

In Quebec City, the PCQ is against the tramway project. It proposes a bridge between Quebec City and Lévis instead of the CAQ tunnel.

Article in English on Duhaime.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-conservative-party-covid-19-eric-duhaime-1.6415046



I suspect that the challenge for PCQ is that all the seats they would target are currently CAQ seats and right now CAQ and Legault are still very popular. In 2018 the CAQ won Chauveau by 25 points! If and when the CAQ and Legault become unpopular there could be an opportunity for the the PCQ to gain protest votes and possibly win seats. But how do they win any CAQ seats in an election that is likely to be a huge CAQ landslide?

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page