🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

As I normally do, fully proportional results:

Portugal 2024

AD*: 69 seats (-11)
PS: 67 seats (-11)
CH!: 43 seats (-7)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 10 seats (+5)
CDU: 8 seats (+4)
L: 8 seats (+4)
PAN: 5 seats (+4)
ADN: 4 seats (+4)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
ND: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

* including MP and the PPM Madeira votes

PCTP/MRPP [0.5754 quotas] gets the last seat over BE [10.4864 quotas] by 2396 votes.

What would the coalition dynamic be here? Would the same PSD-PS rotating speakership liable to collapse at any minute be the eventual decision? And how much of a clownshow would ensue with the 1 seat parties+ADN?

If the current Parliament is already becoming a clownshow, with parties like ADN and PCTP/MRPP, would be even more so. The coalition dynamics would be the same, as the left has no majority or even close to it, and the the right has a fragmented majority. PSD-PS "understandings" would be very much the norm, in order to have something done in this Parliamentary scenario.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As I normally do, fully proportional results:

Portugal 2024

AD*: 69 seats (-11)
PS: 67 seats (-11)
CH!: 43 seats (-7)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 10 seats (+5)
CDU: 8 seats (+4)
L: 8 seats (+4)
PAN: 5 seats (+4)
ADN: 4 seats (+4)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
ND: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

* including MP and the PPM Madeira votes

PCTP/MRPP [0.5754 quotas] gets the last seat over BE [10.4864 quotas] by 2396 votes.

What would the coalition dynamic be here? Would the same PSD-PS rotating speakership liable to collapse at any minute be the eventual decision? And how much of a clownshow would ensue with the 1 seat parties+ADN?

If the current Parliament is already becoming a clownshow, with parties like ADN and PCTP/MRPP, would be even more so. The coalition dynamics would be the same, as the left has no majority or even close to it, and the the right has a fragmented majority. PSD-PS "understandings" would be very much the norm, in order to have something done in this Parliamentary scenario.

I imagine there’d be some PTP-esque moments from PCTP/MRPP, ADN, or RIR. PCTP’s MP unfurling a Ukraine flag with a swastika on it or something.

[Mike88]

As I normally do, fully proportional results:

Portugal 2024

AD*: 69 seats (-11)
PS: 67 seats (-11)
CH!: 43 seats (-7)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 10 seats (+5)
CDU: 8 seats (+4)
L: 8 seats (+4)
PAN: 5 seats (+4)
ADN: 4 seats (+4)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
ND: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

* including MP and the PPM Madeira votes

PCTP/MRPP [0.5754 quotas] gets the last seat over BE [10.4864 quotas] by 2396 votes.

What would the coalition dynamic be here? Would the same PSD-PS rotating speakership liable to collapse at any minute be the eventual decision? And how much of a clownshow would ensue with the 1 seat parties+ADN?

If the current Parliament is already becoming a clownshow, with parties like ADN and PCTP/MRPP, would be even more so. The coalition dynamics would be the same, as the left has no majority or even close to it, and the the right has a fragmented majority. PSD-PS "understandings" would be very much the norm, in order to have something done in this Parliamentary scenario.

I imagine there’d be some PTP-esque moments from PCTP/MRPP, ADN, or RIR. PCTP’s MP unfurling a Ukraine flag with a swastika on it or something.

Probably. ADN, being the weird party that it is, with Bolsonarist people, would definitely have weird moments. MRPP would also have weird moments, not sure about flags, but probably talking a lot about Maoism and their "eternal leader" Arnaldo Matos. Tino de Rans would also give us memorable moments like, f.e., using pavement stones to make some kind of point.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As I normally do, fully proportional results:

Portugal 2024

AD*: 69 seats (-11)
PS: 67 seats (-11)
CH!: 43 seats (-7)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 10 seats (+5)
CDU: 8 seats (+4)
L: 8 seats (+4)
PAN: 5 seats (+4)
ADN: 4 seats (+4)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
ND: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

* including MP and the PPM Madeira votes

PCTP/MRPP [0.5754 quotas] gets the last seat over BE [10.4864 quotas] by 2396 votes.

What would the coalition dynamic be here? Would the same PSD-PS rotating speakership liable to collapse at any minute be the eventual decision? And how much of a clownshow would ensue with the 1 seat parties+ADN?

If the current Parliament is already becoming a clownshow, with parties like ADN and PCTP/MRPP, would be even more so. The coalition dynamics would be the same, as the left has no majority or even close to it, and the the right has a fragmented majority. PSD-PS "understandings" would be very much the norm, in order to have something done in this Parliamentary scenario.

I imagine there’d be some PTP-esque moments from PCTP/MRPP, ADN, or RIR. PCTP’s MP unfurling a Ukraine flag with a swastika on it or something.

Probably. ADN, being the weird party that it is, with Bolsonarist people, would definitely have weird moments. MRPP would also have weird moments, not sure about flags, but probably talking a lot about Maoism and their "eternal leader" Arnaldo Matos. Tino de Rans would also give us memorable moments like, f.e., using pavement stones to make some kind of point.

Would Tino de Rans be RIR's MP in this scenario, though? They have a new leader now, right

[Mike88]

Would Tino de Rans be RIR's MP in this scenario, though? They have a new leader now, right

Yes, they have a new leader, but that would depend on the proportional system used to elect MPs. If it was a closed list system, the leader of the nationwide list would be elected; If it was an open list, Tino would be the one elected, as he would probably get the most personal votes. F.e., in Porto district, RIR, headed by Tino de Rans, got 9,163 votes (0.82%), well above the 2,854 votes (0.22%) of party leader Márcia Rodrigues in Lisbon district.