Were there any polling errors and late swings in the 2008 General
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WPADEM:
We've talked about polling errors and late movement among the voters. Did anything like this happen in 2008? I seem to recall the numbers moving slightly back in McCain's direction in October of 2008, enough to prevent a blowout, but that's about it.
Schiff for Senate:
I might be wrong but one thing I can think of is that I'm pretty sure FL was thought to be a swing state or possibly even tilt McCain until the last few months, when it polls began showing that it was shifting towards Obama.
sg0508:
The day Lehman collapsed changed that race. That was "the" event.
Before that day, despite the housing crisis and despite the economy failing, you could have found the same # of polls predicting a Mac win vs. an Obama win both in the popular vote and electoral college.
After Lehman, the polls quickly moved in Obama's favor by 6-8 points and the rest was history.
EJ24:
I think there may have been a late shift towards McCain in states like Missouri, Montana, and some others states that were flirting with bellweather status (by 2008 standards). I've seen people argue that Palin solidified the GOP base there and helped McCain carry those states, but I'm not sure.
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