IN-SEN 2022: Young vs. Buttigieg in a Trump midterm

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins this hypothetical matchup?

[Alben Barkley]

I think Buttigieg could edge it out. I think 2022 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP if Trump had won again. Most of the same s--tshow would still be happening and probably be worse -- Afghanistan withdrawal, Russian invasion, gas price hikes and inflation, pandemic continuing, etc. -- and people would be beyond tired of him and he'd have no one else to credibly blame. It would be 2006 all over again.

[WPADEM]

I think Buttigieg could edge it out. I think 2022 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP if Trump had won again. Most of the same s--tshow would still be happening and probably be worse -- Afghanistan withdrawal, Russian invasion, gas price hikes and inflation, pandemic continuing, etc. -- and people would be beyond tired of him and he'd have no one else to credibly blame. It would be 2006 all over again.

I'm not sure if polarization would break to the point where we'd have another 2006. And I don't think the GOP base gives up on Trump like they did Bush.  And the ancestral Dems are gone.

So Mayor Pete loses.

[Suburbia]

Young by 5-10 points.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think for Mayor Pete to win in 2022, not only would Trump have to win, but Mayor Pete would also have to have to have not run for President in 2020, and would have be the incumbent Mayor of South Bend.

Since the latter two things are not true, Mayor Pete loses a very close race.

Incumbent Todd Young (R) 48%
Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeig (D) 47.5%

[Agonized-Statism]

Trump would be crashing hard right now, but this is Indiana we're talking about. Sun Belt and swing state Republicans get wiped out but who knows on this race.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It could be close but Indiana might be too far gone. That said anyone who thinks Senator Young would win by 15-20 needs to get their eyes checked. Buttigieg would probably not win, but he'd certainly be within ten points.

[One Term Floridian]

I think Buttigieg could edge it out. I think 2022 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP if Trump had won again. Most of the same s--tshow would still be happening and probably be worse -- Afghanistan withdrawal, Russian invasion, gas price hikes and inflation, pandemic continuing, etc. -- and people would be beyond tired of him and he'd have no one else to credibly blame. It would be 2006 all over again.

Sometimes I truly believe 2020 was a poisoned chalice for Dems. If anything could break polarization, it would be a genre defining Sixth Year itch for the Trump administration rn

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Buttigieg could edge it out. I think 2022 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP if Trump had won again. Most of the same s--tshow would still be happening and probably be worse -- Afghanistan withdrawal, Russian invasion, gas price hikes and inflation, pandemic continuing, etc. -- and people would be beyond tired of him and he'd have no one else to credibly blame. It would be 2006 all over again.

Sometimes I truly believe 2020 was a poisoned chalice for Dems. If anything could break polarization, it would be a genre defining Sixth Year itch for the Trump administration rn

How would that have changed things exactly?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It could be high single digits but Indiana is too Republican for a democrat to win it.
Joe Donnelly lost by 6% in 2018 and he was a WAY stronger candidate than Pete.

[Sir Mohamed]

IN is too much of a red state for a Dem to win a federal race these days. And I'm not that much convinced Butti would be such a strong candidate for that particular race. In a best case scenario for him, he only loses 45-52%.

The governor's chair is still more winnable for Dems, though I don't see it in 2024 in our timeline, even if Biden wins reelection. Could be really competitive after 2 terms of Trump, a national Dem landslide and a weak GOP candidate.

[One Term Floridian]

I think Buttigieg could edge it out. I think 2022 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP if Trump had won again. Most of the same s--tshow would still be happening and probably be worse -- Afghanistan withdrawal, Russian invasion, gas price hikes and inflation, pandemic continuing, etc. -- and people would be beyond tired of him and he'd have no one else to credibly blame. It would be 2006 all over again.

Sometimes I truly believe 2020 was a poisoned chalice for Dems. If anything could break polarization, it would be a genre defining Sixth Year itch for the Trump administration rn

How would that have changed things exactly?

"it's the economy, stupid." I think Trump's own base would find it hard to defend him over inflation and gas prices from going way up.