AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[Holmes]

Terrible title for this documentary.

I mean her first election on the national stage resulted in defeat so this was never an appropriate title.

[JMT]

One thing to consider. I think the Republicans who voted for Palin are the “true believers”. For people saying a lot of Palin voters might switch to Begich in November in the first round, who’s to say a lot of Begich voters won’t switch to Peltola? Especially since she is now the incumbent and she did get a good chunk of his voters’ second choices.

This is a good point, I didn’t think of it that way. This is certainly a possibility as well.

Either way, I think all 3 candidates stay in the race in November, I don’t think anyone will drop out. So it’ll certainly be interesting.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Do we think Murkowski was Begich>Peltola>Palin? That's my guess at least. Possible she rated Palin second out of partisan loyalty

Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely she voted Begich > Peltola > exhaust. Palin and Murkowski have never gotten along, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Murkowski didn’t rank Palin.

Palin literally primaried Murkowski's father because she didn't get her job.  

[Holmes]

One thing to consider. I think the Republicans who voted for Palin are the “true believers”. For people saying a lot of Palin voters might switch to Begich in November in the first round, who’s to say a lot of Begich voters won’t switch to Peltola? Especially since she is now the incumbent and she did get a good chunk of his voters’ second choices.

This is a good point, I didn’t think of it that way. This is certainly a possibility as well.

Either way, I think all 3 candidates stay in the race in November, I don’t think anyone will drop out. So it’ll certainly be interesting.

Palin and Begich have absolutely no reason to drop out. They can keep fighting it out, which helps Peltola. I can see a scenario in November where Peltola ends the first round with around 42-44% of the vote and Palin and Begich battle it out in the mid to high 20’s.

[brucejoel99]

Do we think Murkowski was Begich>Peltola>Palin? That's my guess at least. Possible she rated Palin second out of partisan loyalty

Peltola literally helped run her 2010 write-in campaign, so read into that what may be read.

[Schiff for Senate]

Wonderful, just wonderful. Also this is the first time in like 50 years a Democrat won AK-AL.

[Pollster]

What is perhaps most significant here is that Peltola was massively outspent - almost 4 to 1 by Palin alone and 7 to 1 when including Begich - yet still managed to win. Obviously Palin/the improving environment did a lot of work for her, but important to remember that many Democrats running in far more Dem-favorable places will not be outspent by their opponents, and will in fact significantly outspend them (and many have similarly toxic opponents).

[Schiff for Senate]

Democrats could keep the House in 2022. A month ago I’d have said it was like a 5% chance or so…now it’s quite possible IMO!

[Schiff for Senate]

What is perhaps most significant here is that Peltola was massively outspent - almost 4 to 1 by Palin alone and 7 to 1 when including Begich - yet still managed to win. Obviously Palin/the improving environment did a lot of work for her, but important to remember that many Democrats running in far more Dem-favorable places will not be outspent by their opponents, and will in fact significantly outspend them (and many have similarly toxic opponents).

All this is true, but the only thing that concerns me is AK has very…unique politics (just one example of this: Lisa Murkowski win a write-in campaign for senate, and even in the 2014 wave, Democrats nearly won AK-SEN), and its form of voting in this case (RCV and whatnot) was also unique. Both those factors helped Paltola here. Don’t get me wrong, this victory is still just great, for a multitude of reasons, but we need to be a tad careful about reading too much into this. The NY special was a more significant “bellwether” IMO.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Do we think Murkowski was Begich>Peltola>Palin? That's my guess at least. Possible she rated Palin second out of partisan loyalty

Perhaps, but I think it’s more likely she voted Begich > Peltola > exhaust. Palin and Murkowski have never gotten along, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Murkowski didn’t rank Palin.

Palin literally primaried Murkowski's father because she didn't get her job.  

Btw if Frank Murkowski wasn’t primaried he’d be crushed in a general in 2006 given how massively unpopular he was . Heck he came 3rd in the Republican primary itself and got less than 20% of the vote so yah he was completely DOA.

I have zero idea why he decided to leave the senate and run for governor given he had a pretty influential role in the senate unless the only reason he ran for governor was to ensure Lisa becomes a senator 

[Bojack Horseman]

I can die now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

There is absolutely no reason folks should be diminishing this victory.

A year ago, you'd be crazy for suggesting that the Democrats could pick up the Alaska House seat for even three months.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats were able to win Alabama in the lead up to the 2018 blue wave midterm elections. Republicans can't even win in Alaska in what is supposedly a red wave year.

[Schiff for Senate]

There is absolutely no reason folks should be diminishing this victory.

A year ago, you'd be crazy for suggesting that the Democrats could pick up the Alaska House seat for even three months.

I'm very happy about this, believe me. Great win - first time this seat has gone blue in 50 years, more than doubling the area represented by Democrats, defeating Sarah Palin again, et. al.

I only question how representative this will be of the midterms. As I've said - AK has very weird politics and voting systems. Very different circumstances. I think NY19 was a much more accurate and unbiased reflection of the way voters are leaning. Not that this isn't an encouraging sign or anything - Democrats' chances of holding the House are IMO much, much higher than at this point last month.

[Schiff for Senate]

The Democrats were able to win Alabama in the lead up to the 2018 blue wave midterm elections. Republicans can't even win in Alaska in what is supposedly a red wave year.

Bad faith comparison...Moore was a uniquely terrible candidate, as you're well aware. If not for his pedophilia (being revealed), he'd have won by double digits.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It honestly would be smart for Murkowski to just put and endorse Peltola. Build some goodwill towards the Democratic voters to help her win

[Pericles]

Saying Palin was a terrible candidate misses the point. Even with better candidates, Democrats wouldn't be winning a race like this if the national environment was a Republican wave. These opportunities open up as the national environment improves.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Imagine walking into an Anchorage hospital 49 years ago and telling everyone that that recently born baby girl to a Yupik family was going to be the next person to represent Alaska in the US House.

And then also imagine telling them that the new Senator from Delaware just elected the previous year was going to be President when she took office.

[Mr. Smith]

The Democrats were able to win Alabama in the lead up to the 2018 blue wave midterm elections. Republicans can't even win in Alaska in what is supposedly a red wave year.

Republicans literally took Alaska GOV in this same blue year. If this logic truly follows, we'd be talking about Governor Begich being challenged.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No more Palin she was the one that cause Trumpian in the first place she endorsed Trump over Cruz in the primary now all the Rs are scrubbing Trump off their websites, what happened to Pieman, Trump endorsement is needed for this candidate that was tiresome

[OSR stands with Israel]

Saying Palin was a terrible candidate misses the point. Even with better candidates, Democrats wouldn't be winning a race like this if the national environment was a Republican wave. These opportunities open up as the national environment improves.

Keep in mind Begich almost won an FPTP race in Alaska in 2014. Granted he was the incumbent but other dem incumbents that year in red states got crushed

[DrScholl]

Candidate quality doesn't always matter in wave environments. If this was a Republican wave Palin would have won this easily and the race would have been an afterthought.

[Mr. Illini]

The Red Rippple is fading even further. The GOP is actually in disarray.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be curious how Murkowski personally ranked her ballot. She at the end of the day is a conservative and she endorsed Sullivan in 2020 but she had a very good relationship from Peltola from what I udnerstand.

[Ferguson97]

I would be curious how Murkowski personally ranked her ballot. She at the end of the day is a conservative and she endorsed Sullivan in 2020 but she had a very good relationship from Peltola from what I udnerstand.

I would bet anything she ranked 1. Begich, 2. Peltola, 3. Palin