He gets blown out. He obviously doesn't have the appeal that Carter does to the South; in fact that's a massive understatement, he is absolutely toxic there. For reference, Georgia went from voting 75% Nixon in an all-county sweep in 1972 to 67% Carter in an all-county sweep in 1976. McGovern might not lose as badly in the environment of 1976 as he did in 1972, but he still loses badly. Especially considering even Carter only narrowly beat Ford, with a near-sweep of the South which McGovern obviously wouldn't get. Something like this might be his best case scenario:
