UT-SEN 2024: Romney retiring

[oldtimer]

If Romney loses renomination could he pull a Lieberman 2006 and try running for re-election as a third party candidate, or would Utah law prevent that?

Utah has a sore loser law. It’s why Kael Weston couldn’t run as an independent this year.

Alternatively, Romney doesn't even bother running in a GOP primary and just runs Indy from the start. Not likely, though that would be a way to get around that.

I don’t think dems would just drop their own candidate and endorse Romney the same way they did for McMullin.

If this was some CT-2006 redux, the Dem candidate would still get around 10% of the vote, with Romney comes out on top with coalition of Dems + NeverTrump GOPers, winning something like 49-40-10%.

Eggs McMuffin (I've got to use that catchy nickname) got 43%, with Romney's tacit support but:
 
1. Against an incumbent Republican.
2. In a Midterm where the College vote share is higher than in a Presidential one.

Lets say incumbency is worth 10% and Turnout sheds 5%.
It would be very close, at 48 each, a Democrat would play the spoiler for Romney.

But Romney's only reason for being in the Senate is to vote against the Trump Administration, if Trump doesn't look like winning in 2024 there is no reason for him to run.

[2016]

My money is that Congressman Chris Stewart will challenge Mitt Romney. There is also a possibility Romney calls it a career and retires.

Voting to confirm Ketanji Brown-Jackson to the SCOTUS will hurt him.

[Utah Neolib]

I think there may be a divided field challenging Romney. Utah AG Sean Reyes will probably be the FrontRunner but Jason Chaffetz, some rando crazy from the state legislature and possibly Stewart or Owens runs. Who does this all benefit? Mittens. I think it’s more likely he retires than is beat in a primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do any of you think Romney will do any pivoting to try and better set himself up for the primary, or will he just not really care?

[Torie]

My sense is that he does not like the job that much, and would only run if he felt it was important to so to make a positive difference, either as persuaded by his good buddy Mitch McConnell, or due to the internecine Pub dynamics.  I would be surprised if he ran again, and even more surprised if he tried to tack to pacify the Trump wing. His refusal to endorse Chaffetz even after Chaffetz begged him to, is a leading indicator of his intentions. He's just not going to trim his values at this point in his life.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1605537669798412288

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

If Romney loses renomination could he pull a Lieberman 2006 and try running for re-election as a third party candidate, or would Utah law prevent that?

Utah has a sore loser law. It’s why Kael Weston couldn’t run as an independent this year.

Alternatively, Romney doesn't even bother running in a GOP primary and just runs Indy from the start. Not likely, though that would be a way to get around that.

I don’t think dems would just drop their own candidate and endorse Romney the same way they did for McMullin.

If this was some CT-2006 redux, the Dem candidate would still get around 10% of the vote, with Romney comes out on top with coalition of Dems + NeverTrump GOPers, winning something like 49-40-10%.

Given that it is Utah and a recent 2024 GOP presidential primary poll has Trump in 3rd, I would expect Romney to do significantly better and the MAGA guy, significantly worse.

Something like 55-33-10 in a hypothetical 3-way race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds aren't targeting Romney they are 🎯 Cruz though and we will see on FL with Stephanie Murphy, Ds we're only targeting UT with McMullin and he Lost like Ryan, Barnes, DEMINGS and Beasley

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1646615008531316738?t=xjy3_-JugRFdjtg...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Good, Mittens gets what he deserves.

[Woody]

Get ready to be dumpstered and c**stered, Mittens.

[President Johnson]

Isn't Mitt a legend in Utah, so why should he be concerned?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Isn't Mitt a legend in Utah, so why should he be concerned?

His approval amongst Utah Republicans is in the red.

[Utah Neolib]

I really didn’t expect this guy to run. I was expecting Sean Reyes and he may very well announce regardless. If Romney runs again, 2 candidates bodes well for him even though he would probably lose against a unified front.

[Tekken_Guy]

I really didn’t expect this guy to run. I was expecting Sean Reyes and he may very well announce regardless. If Romney runs again, 2 candidates bodes well for him even though he would probably lose against a unified front.

Romney would be clearly favored even in a one-on-one match-up. Utah isn't very Trumpy.

[Utah Neolib]

Mitt Romney a declaration of candidacy without announcing:
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2023/04/12/mitt-romney-takes-first-step/

Sen. Mitt Romney quietly took the first step toward a reelection bid this week by filing a declaration of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. While the move is not a definitive indicator that Romney plans to run for another U.S. Senate term in 2024, it’s the strongest hint yet about his intentions.

The paperwork, a “statement of candidacy” filed on Tuesday, allows Romney to start raising and spending money for campaign purposes.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/SpencerJCox/status/1646627201595604992?cxt=HHwWgIDQyeat_9ktA...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Utah is Safe R anyways it's part of the Dakotas unlike other R leaning battleground like MO, TX, NC, SC and FL

Being in the minority and D's are about to win a Filibuster proof Trifecta is not gonna help RS in UT all we need is 5 seats in H and Gallego and Brown and one R leaning battleground MT, MO, TX, WV or FL that's 51/50 and outside of MT and WV they are blk Populated

[Stuart98]

Isn't Mitt a legend in Utah, so why should he be concerned?

Utah's Republican party is more in line with the national party than it was 6 years ago, and Mitt is much less in line with both now.

[brucejoel99]

Isn't Mitt a legend in Utah, so why should he be concerned?

Utah's Republican party is more in line with the national party than it was 6 years ago, and Mitt is much less in line with both now.

So long as there's a petition process & he's at roughly even approval among Republicans, he's still fine, right?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1647317644109037568?t=9W_7r1q2ijs45adhJhD...

Not exactly the fundraising numbers you'd expect for a senator running for re-election.

[Suburbia]

Romney might retire, and may run for president if he sees a path at taking Trump out mano a mano.

Romney still has connections and he has a yearly donor summit in Utah...

[oldtimer]

Isn't Mitt a legend in Utah, so why should he be concerned?

The problem for Romney is that he is a legend with Utah Democrats, and they don't vote in Republican primaries.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1647317644109037568?t=9W_7r1q2ijs45adhJhD...
Not exactly the fundraising numbers you'd expect for a senator running for re-election.

Indeed, a Representative would have better numbers.

[Sir Mohamed]

Romney might retire, and may run for president if he sees a path at taking Trump out mano a mano.

Romney still has connections and he has a yearly donor summit in Utah...

Romney isn't going to run 4 prez ever again. He's totally out of step with the national party and would get clobbered and mocked by Trump. Even more so than Jeb! got humiliated.