Alberta election 2023

[Ontario Tory]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Exactly. Until there is a known successor who can be as popular as Notley, the NDP would be foolish to turf her.

IMO, once the UCP gets a more moderate leader, ANDP is sort of screwed. The UCP won this time even though Smith was a certified lunatic. How much better would the UCP do if, say, Travis Toews were the leader?

Well it's hard to say because the certified lunatic objectively saw an improvement in UCP fortunes compared to her predecessor. Jason Kenney was more of a moderate on the surface, but he was extremely politically toxic, more so than Smith was this campaign. The NDP's strongest attacks on the UCP were related to things that happened under Kenney, and with Smith there was just enough plausible deniability that those didn't quite land as they would have against Kenney.

I do agree with you that Travis Toews would have been a better leader. He would have more Kenney-era baggage, and TBA-style movements might have gravitated more to the right-wing fringe parties with him as leader - but conversely, the NDP might not have been able to eat up the Alberta Party, Liberals and Greens quite as much, with Toews being a less "scary" candidate to those on the left. Overall, UCP would probably have done slightly better in Calgary and had a more efficient vote.

But I don't think this election would have been a UCP blowout without Smith. The Alberta NDP is one of the most well-organized and well-funded centre-left parties in Canada. Alberta really hasn't even trended that hard to the left, but it is trending that way and the ANDP has monopolized that trend, helped by the collapse of the Alberta Libs. So I wouldn't underestimate the ANDP and assume that they were only competitive because of Smith. As long as the ANDP sticks to an Alberta acceptable position (don't go too far to the left, and support oil and gas), they will remain competitive

The problem with Alberta NDP is that they haven't changed with the times. They essentially campaigned on the same policies with which they governed while they were in office. Raising the corporate tax during a recession (Alberta is not in a recession right now but an upcoming recession is widely expected globally), not challenging the federal government's environmental policy excesses to any significant degree, large amounts of government spending which as we saw, is not a good strategy in Alberta because it did not sway Calgary.

I'd say in 2015, Alberta NDP was victorious for three reasons:
1. Widespread dissatisfaction of 40-year PC rule
2. The fact that the carbon tax wasn't a part of the political discussion in Canada back in 2015, so they didn't campaign on it
3. Vote splitting on the right (PC+Wildrose)

These factors are pretty much no longer there. I think the fact that Notley campaigned on the carbon tax in 2019 (and was assumed to be on board with it in 2023) opens up the attack line that she's a 'proxy of Trudeau' to which she really has no good counterargument. In 2015, she didn't have to address this issue.

People don't really associate the Notley era with very positive connotations, because the Albertan economy wasn't doing very well at the time, which wasn't entirely her fault but her policies didn't make it much better, so campaigning on the things you campaigned and governed on back then + things that are evidently unpopular in Alberta (eg, the carbon tax) is not really going to win you many votes. I would say that in this election, the fact that Smith was a bit of a lunatic really did help Notley gain more votes than she otherwise would have. If Notley had avoided the rhetoric about raising taxes and at least appeared to challenge the perceived federal government's hostility to the energy sector, she would have done a lot better.

One of the unique things about this election was that Notley has a record that Albertans are well aware of, and by and large, not fond of. I don't think she was going to change many minds about herself or her party. In fact, both parties seemed to recognize this, and this election was more about turnout than persuasion, with both leaders basically taking a "don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative" approach. The UCP landed some good attacks on the NDP, as you mentioned, and maybe the impact of those could have been mitigated.

The NDP, however, I think focused on the wrong things in attacking the UCP. They focused a lot on some of the really stupid things Smith said as a talk show host, as well as some very fringe positions like on healthcare. And maybe that could have worked if Smith had taken a GOP-like approach of doubling down and giving credibility to Democrat attacks, but instead Smith significantly moderated her image, even showing contrition at times. She was sometimes compared to Kari Lake, as two right-wing women with a history in media and a pattern of saying some very fringe things. But while Lake played up that image even more, Smith played it down a lot and came off much more premier-like than she did in her shock-jock talk radio days.

As far as attacks go, I think focusing more on the UCP's shaky handling of provincial government services would have been better, because that points to a tangible thing that Albertans personally dealt with. Most of it was under Kenney, true, but most of Kenney's top ministers were also in Smith's cabinet.

But that's the thing. The most successful politicians are adaptable. Doug Ford, who won two straight majorities, campaigned on Wynne fatigue and reining in government spending in 2018 (and won), did a shift during COVID as being the responsible Premier willing to help during tough times around 2020 and won an election in 2022 by campaigning on investing in infrastructure, social services and appealing to labour unions. No one remembers 2018 Doug Ford anymore. Notley could have done the same thing and had it been convincing, she could have won.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

It's not just about oil, but there is a certain corporate city vs government city kind of dynamic. I will note though that as has been observed on numerous occasions, Albertans are more Big-C conservatives than small-c conservatives. There's a certain overriding political identity, but in terms of ideological preference (you see this municipally where there are no party labels), the big cities prefer centrist progressives, all other things being equal.

Question, not just for you but for other Canadians who are informed enough to answer: Do we think Notley wins if the only thing that changes was if the Conservatives hypothetically controlled Ottawa and not Trudeau's Liberals?

As you mentioned, Alberta does have a big-C Conservative political culture federally for a multitude of understandable reasons  relating to all the Federal parties and their coalitions. This means that the federal Conservatives do have an air of being beyond reproach, but the provincial or local ones are not. Certain issues that could/should be blamed on provincial politicians are blamed on the disliked Liberals. So if it wasn't the Liberals, would it be the UCP instead collecting the blame, and would it be enough?

Any takers?

Does Notley win if there's a CPC government, not LPC?

Yes, but only because the election was close enough that a few thousand votes in the right ridings would have changed the outcome. I don't think Trudeau or Ottawa were a big part of this campaign, and Smith didn't talk about Ottawa nearly as much as you'd expect, but it probably gave the Tories a turnout boost in the ridings they needed. That said, provincial politics in Alberta hasn't historically correlated all that much with federal elections, it's kinda its own thing.

Is Alberta's conservatism mainly a reaction to Ottawa?

No. I mean, obviously a part of it is that, and since the Reform Party, western alienation has been monopolized by the political right. But Alberta is clearly also a small-c conservative province in the sense that conservatives win elections regardless of just about anything else. Since 1935, all but one election have been won by a centre-right party (maybe all but two, the PCs under Alison Redford I wouldn't consider centre-right, but that doesn't change my point). The right has been successful in Alberta during federal Liberal and Conservative rule, and the one major exception in 2015 really wasn't a reaction to Harper. Canadian voters, to their credit, tend to be pretty good at distinguishing between federal and provincial elections (though not always Canadian and American elections )

[DL]

For what it's worth, there have been times when commodity prices were low but Alberta's economy still came out strong. For example, commodity prices were low in the 1990s but Alberta had the highest economic growth in Canada and even achieved a balanced budget. I think it depends on how the current UCP government would handle a future economic downturn that will make the difference.

That's not quite true. Alberta was seriously slammed by the recession and low commodity prices of the early 90s (and also when the same happened in the early 80s). Don Getty was PC premier in the late 80s and early 90s and was ridiculously unpopular and was driven out of office. It looked like the PCs were facing certain defeat in 1993 to the Alberta Liberals and in the 1993 election campaign it was a contest between the PCs and the Liberals over who could promise the most drastic, draconian cuts to social programs and spending etc... The PCs under Ralph Klein won by seeming slightly less rightwing than the Alberta Liberals who at the time were very "blue grit" under Lawrence Decore. Then the rollercoaster ride happened and oil prices soared and the provincial coffers filled up again.

The UCP handled the latest downturn very badly. Kenney's first couple of budgets had the highest deficits in Alberta history and he picked fights with everyone under the sun. At one point at the start of the pandemic during the lockdown oil from Alberta was worth less than zero. The only thing that saved the day for the UCP (though too late for Kenney) was a spike in world demand for oil post-pandemic coupled with the Ukraine war sending oil and gas prices through the roof. Right now Danielle Smith is presiding over a "sugar high" and is spending like a drunken sailor. But as usual, the party will end, commodity prices will crash and then Smith will be put to the test. Its the easiest thing in the world to government when revenue is flooding in and you can buy people off.  

The Alberta economy is very simple. When the world price of oil goes up the economy gets a sugar high and whoever is in power claims credit. The when the world price of oil declines, there is an economic collapse and everyone blames whoever is in power.    

[Ontario Tory]

For what it's worth, there have been times when commodity prices were low but Alberta's economy still came out strong. For example, commodity prices were low in the 1990s but Alberta had the highest economic growth in Canada and even achieved a balanced budget. I think it depends on how the current UCP government would handle a future economic downturn that will make the difference.

That's not quite true. Alberta was seriously slammed by the recession and low commodity prices of the early 90s (and also when the same happened in the early 80s). Don Getty was PC premier in the late 80s and early 90s and was ridiculously unpopular and was driven out of office. It looked like the PCs were facing certain defeat in 1993 to the Alberta Liberals and in the 1993 election campaign it was a contest between the PCs and the Liberals over who could promise the most drastic, draconian cuts to social programs and spending etc... The PCs under Ralph Klein won by seeming slightly less rightwing than the Alberta Liberals who at the time were very "blue grit" under Lawrence Decore. Then the rollercoaster ride happened and oil prices soared and the provincial coffers filled up again.

The UCP handled the latest downturn very badly. Kenney's first couple of budgets had the highest deficits in Alberta history and he picked fights with everyone under the sun. At one point at the start of the pandemic during the lockdown oil from Alberta was worth less than zero. The only thing that saved the day for the UCP (though too late for Kenney) was a spike in world demand for oil post-pandemic coupled with the Ukraine war sending oil and gas prices through the roof. Right now Danielle Smith is presiding over a "sugar high" and is spending like a drunken sailor. But as usual, the party will end, commodity prices will crash and then Smith will be put to the test. Its the easiest thing in the world to government when revenue is flooding in and you can buy people off.  

The Alberta economy is very simple. When the world price of oil goes up the economy gets a sugar high and whoever is in power claims credit. The when the world price of oil declines, there is an economic collapse and everyone blames whoever is in power.    

During the 1980s oil glut under Don Getty, yeah, Alberta had a downturn. But during the 1990s recession when there were low commodity prices (which was separate from the 1980s one) Alberta came out relatively unscathed.

[Njall]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

It's not just about oil, but there is a certain corporate city vs government city kind of dynamic. I will note though that as has been observed on numerous occasions, Albertans are more Big-C conservatives than small-c conservatives. There's a certain overriding political identity, but in terms of ideological preference (you see this municipally where there are no party labels), the big cities prefer centrist progressives, all other things being equal.

Question, not just for you but for other Canadians who are informed enough to answer: Do we think Notley wins if the only thing that changes was if the Conservatives hypothetically controlled Ottawa and not Trudeau's Liberals?

As you mentioned, Alberta does have a big-C Conservative political culture federally for a multitude of understandable reasons  relating to all the Federal parties and their coalitions. This means that the federal Conservatives do have an air of being beyond reproach, but the provincial or local ones are not. Certain issues that could/should be blamed on provincial politicians are blamed on the disliked Liberals. So if it wasn't the Liberals, would it be the UCP instead collecting the blame, and would it be enough?

Any takers?

Does Notley win if there's a CPC government, not LPC?

Yes, but only because the election was close enough that a few thousand votes in the right ridings would have changed the outcome. I don't think Trudeau or Ottawa were a big part of this campaign, and Smith didn't talk about Ottawa nearly as much as you'd expect, but it probably gave the Tories a turnout boost in the ridings they needed. That said, provincial politics in Alberta hasn't historically correlated all that much with federal elections, it's kinda its own thing.

Is Alberta's conservatism mainly a reaction to Ottawa?

No. I mean, obviously a part of it is that, and since the Reform Party, western alienation has been monopolized by the political right. But Alberta is clearly also a small-c conservative province in the sense that conservatives win elections regardless of just about anything else. Since 1935, all but one election have been won by a centre-right party (maybe all but two, the PCs under Alison Redford I wouldn't consider centre-right, but that doesn't change my point). The right has been successful in Alberta during federal Liberal and Conservative rule, and the one major exception in 2015 really wasn't a reaction to Harper. Canadian voters, to their credit, tend to be pretty good at distinguishing between federal and provincial elections (though not always Canadian and American elections )

I agree that Notley likely would have won if there was a CPC federal government, given the closeness of the election.

You're right that Alberta's conservatism isn't mainly a reaction to Ottawa, but it doesn't play an insignificant role either. It plays into the broader culture that leads to many Albertans identifying as politically Conservative, even when they're not actually ideologically conservative. I'd argue that for most of the time that the Alberta PCs were in office, with the main exception being Klein's deficit-slashing days in the '90s, they governed from the centre. Remember that Alberta spends more per-capita and arguably has a "bigger" government than any other province in Canada - it's been able to do so while maintaining low tax rates because of oil & gas royalties. Albertans don't like taxes, but aside from that, they're similar to other Canadians on most issues.

[Benjamin Frank]

Rachel Notley shouldn't try to stay on like Dave Barrett did after losing an election as opposition leader. I don't think she can further increase NDP support in the regions where they fell just short of the needed breakthroughs. More likely Danielle Smith is pushed out as Premier than Notley wins the next election.

I'm of the "if she can't, who can?" POV.  Basically, given the nature of Alberta, *all* potential leaders are skunked in that light, however "right of the party" they might stand.

Notley's sort of "half Barrett, half Doer" in that light.

Gary Doer had never been Premier though, unlike Dave Barrett or Rachel Notley, so he didn't have the same amount of baggage. (Technically Doer took over as NDP leader during the 1988 election campaign. Though the NDP was still sort of technically the government, Doer himself refused to be referred to as 'Premier.')

Given that the NDP lost by 8.6% overall, I think the NDP did better in Calgary than would have been expected. Janet Brown in her poll of Calgary before the start of the campaign said the NDP was competitive in 18 of the 26 Calgary ridings.

Well, the NDP won 14 but lost another 6 by under 10% for a total of 20 competitive Calgary ridings. Even more than that, the NDP got over 40% of the vote in all but one riding and did not lose any riding in Calgary by more than 20%. There were two ridings in Calgary the NDP won this time that they lost in 2019 by more than 20% (barring changes in recounts.)

As I said previously, if Smith is a loony as she can be, and the UCP has a tough time with or without her as leader, I could see the NDP virtually sweeping Calgary in the next election.

I think the NDP would do well with a leader in Calgary, specifically Kathleen Ganley, or maybe Samir Kayande. Ganley might turn off some of the more left wing New Democrats, but we saw they don't have a place to go, except not going to vote.

[Benjamin Frank]

As of right now, three of the top jobs in the cabinet are open: Finance Minister Travis Toews didn't run again, while Justice Minister Tyler Shandro is losing and Health Minister Jason Copping has lost. There were several other defeated ministers as well and Environment Minister Sonya Savage also didn't run again.

The UCP caucus has just three lawyers now. Brian Jean who holds an economic portfolio, the back bench economic right wing tax lawyer (who won a gold medal in law school) and Mickey Amery, the Children's Services Minister. I would think most likely Amery will be the next Attorney General.  There is also Mike Ellis the police officer though.

About 2/3 of the UCP caucus has a business background. No used car dealers but quite a number in construction/property development.

[politicallefty]

I actually had the same question when it comes to the CPC federal government hypothetical. It does seem like the 2019 results, both federally and provincially, were influenced by the right being shut out at both levels. Edmonton seems to provide a strong and stable floor for the ANDP. Federally that year, the CPC managed to get a higher popular vote total than Harper ever got and swept everything except Edmonton Strathcona. I have to imagine that having both Trudeau and Notley running things at their respective levels for nearly four years riled up the conservative base of the province in 2019.

It also does seem to me that in more recent years that Canadians like to check the party in power at the federal level by voting the other way in provincial elections. There are always exceptions, but there does seem to be a correlation. The centre-left certainly isn't controlling much at the provincially level right now. Not including the territories, the Liberals have Newfoundland and the NDP has BC. At the tail end of the Harper years, the centre-right had just BC, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland. (I'm not really sure how to place the PLQ then, but the CAQ is unquestionably right-of-centre.)

As for the results themselves, it's surprising how unsurprising they are. (I suppose the exception is the popular vote margin, which is certainly higher than most were expecting.) Losing is obviously disappointing, but the NDP has a lot to be proud of. They've reestablished Fortress Edmonton. It looks like their seat count in Calgary may end up right around what they got in 2015 (assuming current leads hold), though certainly more impressive since they didn't have to rely on vote splitting. Unfortunately, the rurals can't be won without vote splitting (with the one notable exception on the map). It's very easy to see where an NDP Government could be formed though. If I'm not mistaken, the tipping point seat looks to be Morinville-St. Albert, which went UCP by 6.1%.

I'm sure someone here knows, but why is Calgary West so much more conservative than its surrounding ridings? It seems to vote more like Southern Calgary.

[Benjamin Frank]

I actually had the same question when it comes to the CPC federal government hypothetical. It does seem like the 2019 results, both federally and provincially, were influenced by the right being shut out at both levels. Edmonton seems to provide a strong and stable floor for the ANDP. Federally that year, the CPC managed to get a higher popular vote total than Harper ever got and swept everything except Edmonton Strathcona. I have to imagine that having both Trudeau and Notley running things at their respective levels for nearly four years riled up the conservative base of the province in 2019.

It also does seem to me that in more recent years that Canadians like to check the party in power at the federal level by voting the other way in provincial elections. There are always exceptions, but there does seem to be a correlation. The centre-left certainly isn't controlling much at the provincially level right now. Not including the territories, the Liberals have Newfoundland and the NDP has BC. At the tail end of the Harper years, the centre-right had just BC, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland. (I'm not really sure how to place the PLQ then, but the CAQ is unquestionably right-of-centre.)

As for the results themselves, it's surprising how unsurprising they are. (I suppose the exception is the popular vote margin, which is certainly higher than most were expecting.) Losing is obviously disappointing, but the NDP has a lot to be proud of. They've reestablished Fortress Edmonton. It looks like their seat count in Calgary may end up right around what they got in 2015 (assuming current leads hold), though certainly more impressive since they didn't have to rely on vote splitting. Unfortunately, the rurals can't be won without vote splitting (with the one notable exception on the map). It's very easy to see where an NDP Government could be formed though. If I'm not mistaken, the tipping point seat looks to be Morinville-St. Albert, which went UCP by 6.1%.

I'm sure someone here knows, but why is Calgary West so much more conservative than its surrounding ridings? It seems to vote more like Southern Calgary.

It's easy to see where a narrow NDP majority government can be formed. However, I think it's pretty clear the NDP chose to focus their resources on Calgary (and largely succeeded, 11 of their 14 new seats right now are in the city of Calgary) at the expense of the 'donut' around Edmonton and the smaller cities, not even winning the other Lethbridge riding. As was pointed out here, Rachel Notley didn't even go to Banff-Kananaskis. (Personally I'm not sure that the leader campaigning in a riding, or a Presidential candidate campaigning in a state, is all that helpful. Many campaign managers hate it.)  

However, I do think the broader focus on resources certainly does make a difference, and the NDP will still have to make a choice in the next election between focusing on making further gains in Calgary vs focusing on the ridings around Edmonton and the smaller cities. That said, apparently riding redistibution will give Calgary and Edmonton an even greater percentage of seats.

[adma]

People don't really associate the Notley era with very positive connotations, because the Albertan economy wasn't doing very well at the time, which wasn't entirely her fault but her policies didn't make it much better, so campaigning on the things you campaigned and governed on back then + things that are evidently unpopular in Alberta (eg, the carbon tax) is not really going to win you many votes.

But could have been worse (i.e. the Rae government in Ontario in '90-95).  For somebody whose gov't was hindered w/negative connotations, getting a higher share than she won with ain't bad.

And when it comes to circumstances beyond control. it's sometimes forgotten that when Dave Barrett governed in BC, the global postwar economic boom was starting to sputter.

[Benjamin Frank]

People don't really associate the Notley era with very positive connotations, because the Albertan economy wasn't doing very well at the time, which wasn't entirely her fault but her policies didn't make it much better, so campaigning on the things you campaigned and governed on back then + things that are evidently unpopular in Alberta (eg, the carbon tax) is not really going to win you many votes.

But could have been worse (i.e. the Rae government in Ontario in '90-95).  For somebody whose gov't was hindered w/negative connotations, getting a higher share than she won with ain't bad.

And when it comes to circumstances beyond control. it's sometimes forgotten that when Dave Barrett governed in BC, the global postwar economic boom was starting to sputter.

The media in British Columbia especially focused on the over-spending in the social services ministry. The minister, Norm Levi, even told Barrett to fire him to take the media scrutiny off.

[adma]

I'm sure someone here knows, but why is Calgary West so much more conservative than its surrounding ridings? It seems to vote more like Southern Calgary.

More exurbanizing than the Calgary norm, i.e. more of a "gateway to Rocky View County" quality.

[adma]

One thing that strikes me about the results is that the NDP vote is actually very efficient. getting 38 seats while losing the popular vote by almost 9% is a good showing and points to a lot of wasted UCP votes in rural ridings where they run up these North Korean like margins. If this sort of pattern holds four years from now I think its safe to say that the NDP could win easily win more seats than the UCP if they came within 4 or 5 percent in the popular vote (i.e., if the popular vote had been 50-46 rather than 52.5-44 - the NDP likely would have won 44-45 seats). And over the coming years the demographic shifts in Alberta will continue. Old people will die off, younger people will enter the electorate. Calgary and Edmonton will get bigger and rural Alberta will stagnate.

I agree there--at the beginning of the election, a lot of common punditry wisdom was that 49-38 was the kind of seat differential one'd expect from NDP and UCP being even in the polls, out of a presumption that the NDP in Edmonton would go into the vote-wasting stratosphere a la 2015.  (It didn't--UCP had enough dead-cat strength to be at least 36% in 2/3 of Edmonton ridings, whereas in '15 PC+WR together managed a 1/3 share in only 1/3 of ridings.)  And I can see the Calgary trajectory continuing not unlike that of the Doer NDP in Winnipeg.  (One '23 heartbreaker nobody's mentioned, though: Lethbridge East.)

That said, speaking of stratospheres, there is something disconcerting about the blue-dog scale of victory for Danielle Smith's UCP in rural Alberta--that is, I *might* have expected more Dipper bottom-feeding even *there* than what actually happened...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For someone not very familiar with Canadian (let alone Albertan) politics, why is Calgary dramatically more conservative than Edmonton?  Is it just about oil?

It's primarily about oil. Pretty much all of Alberta's oil & gas companies are headquartered in Calgary. Calgary is home to white collar conservatism because of this.

It's not just about oil, but there is a certain corporate city vs government city kind of dynamic. I will note though that as has been observed on numerous occasions, Albertans are more Big-C conservatives than small-c conservatives. There's a certain overriding political identity, but in terms of ideological preference (you see this municipally where there are no party labels), the big cities prefer centrist progressives, all other things being equal.

Question, not just for you but for other Canadians who are informed enough to answer: Do we think Notley wins if the only thing that changes was if the Conservatives hypothetically controlled Ottawa and not Trudeau's Liberals?

As you mentioned, Alberta does have a big-C Conservative political culture federally for a multitude of understandable reasons  relating to all the Federal parties and their coalitions. This means that the federal Conservatives do have an air of being beyond reproach, but the provincial or local ones are not. Certain issues that could/should be blamed on provincial politicians are blamed on the disliked Liberals. So if it wasn't the Liberals, would it be the UCP instead collecting the blame, and would it be enough?

Any takers?

Does Notley win if there's a CPC government, not LPC?

Yes, but only because the election was close enough that a few thousand votes in the right ridings would have changed the outcome. I don't think Trudeau or Ottawa were a big part of this campaign, and Smith didn't talk about Ottawa nearly as much as you'd expect, but it probably gave the Tories a turnout boost in the ridings they needed. That said, provincial politics in Alberta hasn't historically correlated all that much with federal elections, it's kinda its own thing.

Is Alberta's conservatism mainly a reaction to Ottawa?

No. I mean, obviously a part of it is that, and since the Reform Party, western alienation has been monopolized by the political right. But Alberta is clearly also a small-c conservative province in the sense that conservatives win elections regardless of just about anything else. Since 1935, all but one election have been won by a centre-right party (maybe all but two, the PCs under Alison Redford I wouldn't consider centre-right, but that doesn't change my point). The right has been successful in Alberta during federal Liberal and Conservative rule, and the one major exception in 2015 really wasn't a reaction to Harper. Canadian voters, to their credit, tend to be pretty good at distinguishing between federal and provincial elections (though not always Canadian and American elections )

I agree that Notley likely would have won if there was a CPC federal government, given the closeness of the election.

You're right that Alberta's conservatism isn't mainly a reaction to Ottawa, but it doesn't play an insignificant role either. It plays into the broader culture that leads to many Albertans identifying as politically Conservative, even when they're not actually ideologically conservative. I'd argue that for most of the time that the Alberta PCs were in office, with the main exception being Klein's deficit-slashing days in the '90s, they governed from the centre. Remember that Alberta spends more per-capita and arguably has a "bigger" government than any other province in Canada - it's been able to do so while maintaining low tax rates because of oil & gas royalties. Albertans don't like taxes, but aside from that, they're similar to other Canadians on most issues.

Oh for sure, but there are also things about Alberta's history, economy, and culture that make it more small-c conservative than it "should" be. It's true that PC premiers in the past (except Klein) were pretty moderate compared to Smith or Kenney, but Alberta's also the place where Social Credit and Reform took off, and many of the prominent figures of Canadian conservatism like Manning, Harper, Poilievre, were influenced by a very Albertan style of right-wing populism that they brought to the rest of Canada. Alberta has always had much more political diversity than people give it credit, it's worth noting that the PCs in Klein's first election got a far smaller share of the vote than UCP did last night. It used to be the case that conservatives were much better at holding a winning coalition and progressives were too divided for their own good - a dynamic that seems to have flipped over the last decade. But Alberta has also been much more open to orthodox conservative politics in a way the rest of Canada really hasn't been for a century now.

[DistingFlyer]

As with 2019, the Tories notably outperformed their polls without their majority increasing by a corresponding amount:

Last time their lead was more than double the aggregate polling (and appreciably in excess of any single poll to boot) but their seat numbers ended up at 63 over the 56 or so the poll aggregates forecast.

This time their lead appreciably exceeded the aggregate polls (though a couple individual polls matched it) but their seat numbers finished within the range forecast by those same aggregates.

Looking at the change in votes vs. change in MLAs, the NDP gained seven more members than they would have had the swing been uniform provincewide:



The bigger-than-average Calgary swing was clearly a big help.

[DL]

The Alberta NDP won in 2015 with just over 40% of the vote and lost this time with just over 44% of the vote. But the distribution of that vote is quite different this time. People forget how well the NDP in parts of rural Alberta in 2015. They won seats like Peace River, Central Peace-Notley, Lesser Slave Lake, West Yellowhead, Athabaska, Wetaskiwin etc... and often got close to 30% of the vote in many other seats where they lost. Of course winning many of those seats also hinged on good three way splits with the PCs and Wildrose eating into each other's support. But in 2023 the NDP not only did not come close to winning any of those rural seats - in almost every case their vote share was much lower than in 2015.

In contrast while the NDP did well seatwise in Calgary (due to vote splits) i think the NDP vote share across Calgary in 2015 was in the high 30s. This time it was 49%!

Also, in 2015 the NDP won almost every seat in Edmonton with the North Korean-like super-majorities. This time while the NDP won by massive margins in some inner city seats, they won a lot of Edmonton seats by more modest low to mid-teens margins. So there was less "waste vote" in Edmonton.   

[adma]

Also, in 2015 the NDP won almost every seat in Edmonton with the North Korean-like super-majorities. This time while the NDP won by massive margins in some inner city seats, they won a lot of Edmonton seats by more modest low to mid-teens margins. So there was less "waste vote" in Edmonton.   

Of course, the right was disunited in '15.  But even if you combined PC and WR, there were only 3 seats that year (all in the far SW) where the gap was even in the 15-20% range.

[adma]

Another thing about UCP "overperformance" in Edmonton: I'd be eyeing that in case it's a foretelling of any possible post-Rachel/post-Danielle "rightward reclaiming" dynamic.  (Which cannot be ruled out in light of continued federal Con strength)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Alberta NDP won in 2015 with just over 40% of the vote and lost this time with just over 44% of the vote. But the distribution of that vote is quite different this time. People forget how well the NDP in parts of rural Alberta in 2015. They won seats like Peace River, Central Peace-Notley, Lesser Slave Lake, West Yellowhead, Athabaska, Wetaskiwin etc... and often got close to 30% of the vote in many other seats where they lost. Of course winning many of those seats also hinged on good three way splits with the PCs and Wildrose eating into each other's support. But in 2023 the NDP not only did not come close to winning any of those rural seats - in almost every case their vote share was much lower than in 2015.

In contrast while the NDP did well seatwise in Calgary (due to vote splits) i think the NDP vote share across Calgary in 2015 was in the high 30s. This time it was 49%!

Also, in 2015 the NDP won almost every seat in Edmonton with the North Korean-like super-majorities. This time while the NDP won by massive margins in some inner city seats, they won a lot of Edmonton seats by more modest low to mid-teens margins. So there was less "waste vote" in Edmonton.   

Yeah the AB NDP got crazy good regional distribution this time out, but their gains were just barely short of what they needed. Some combination of the NDP's very smart strategy of concentrating resources in Calgary, global realignment trends, and the UCP picking a leader who's not very appealing to "man I just want lower taxes and a strong energy sector, what's all this TBA nonsense" suburbanites who dominate Calgary.

[adma]

The Alberta NDP won in 2015 with just over 40% of the vote and lost this time with just over 44% of the vote. But the distribution of that vote is quite different this time. People forget how well the NDP in parts of rural Alberta in 2015. They won seats like Peace River, Central Peace-Notley, Lesser Slave Lake, West Yellowhead, Athabaska, Wetaskiwin etc... and often got close to 30% of the vote in many other seats where they lost. Of course winning many of those seats also hinged on good three way splits with the PCs and Wildrose eating into each other's support. But in 2023 the NDP not only did not come close to winning any of those rural seats - in almost every case their vote share was much lower than in 2015.

In contrast while the NDP did well seatwise in Calgary (due to vote splits) i think the NDP vote share across Calgary in 2015 was in the high 30s. This time it was 49%!

Also, in 2015 the NDP won almost every seat in Edmonton with the North Korean-like super-majorities. This time while the NDP won by massive margins in some inner city seats, they won a lot of Edmonton seats by more modest low to mid-teens margins. So there was less "waste vote" in Edmonton.   

Yeah the AB NDP got crazy good regional distribution this time out, but their gains were just barely short of what they needed. Some combination of the NDP's very smart strategy of concentrating resources in Calgary, global realignment trends, and the UCP picking a leader who's not very appealing to "man I just want lower taxes and a strong energy sector, what's all this TBA nonsense" suburbanites who dominate Calgary.

But I agree that the "resource concentration" was a mixed blessing even if it yielded seats.  Or that it's not like the NDP should expect to win Camrose, but at least they should look into winning the respect of those in Camrose--that is, this sort of electoral hypersorting isn't healthy for democracy *anywhere*.

Then again, if this kind of election with this kind of result happened 40 years ago, it would probably have yielded far fewer seats for the NDP--not out of Edmontonian hyperconcentration; but rather, out of more even distribution, with elevated "rural NDP populist" vote shares and more Tory-establishment clout in Edmonton & Calgary.  (Not unlike how the Sask NDP was reduced to a 9-seat rump on a 54-38 result in 1982--but thanks to the "urbanizing" of the NDP vote, it took a 2:1 differential to yield likewise in '11, and higher seat totals in '16 and '20)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Alberta NDP won in 2015 with just over 40% of the vote and lost this time with just over 44% of the vote. But the distribution of that vote is quite different this time. People forget how well the NDP in parts of rural Alberta in 2015. They won seats like Peace River, Central Peace-Notley, Lesser Slave Lake, West Yellowhead, Athabaska, Wetaskiwin etc... and often got close to 30% of the vote in many other seats where they lost. Of course winning many of those seats also hinged on good three way splits with the PCs and Wildrose eating into each other's support. But in 2023 the NDP not only did not come close to winning any of those rural seats - in almost every case their vote share was much lower than in 2015.

In contrast while the NDP did well seatwise in Calgary (due to vote splits) i think the NDP vote share across Calgary in 2015 was in the high 30s. This time it was 49%!

Also, in 2015 the NDP won almost every seat in Edmonton with the North Korean-like super-majorities. This time while the NDP won by massive margins in some inner city seats, they won a lot of Edmonton seats by more modest low to mid-teens margins. So there was less "waste vote" in Edmonton.  

Yeah the AB NDP got crazy good regional distribution this time out, but their gains were just barely short of what they needed. Some combination of the NDP's very smart strategy of concentrating resources in Calgary, global realignment trends, and the UCP picking a leader who's not very appealing to "man I just want lower taxes and a strong energy sector, what's all this TBA nonsense" suburbanites who dominate Calgary.

But I agree that the "resource concentration" was a mixed blessing even if it yielded seats.  Or that it's not like the NDP should expect to win Camrose, but at least they should look into winning the respect of those in Camrose--that is, this sort of electoral hypersorting isn't healthy for democracy *anywhere*.

True, but doing what's "healthy for democracy" isn't necessarily a good way of winning elections - see: Nixon's 50-state strategy in 1960, better yet compare that to his much more cynical, yet much more effective Southern Strategy in 1968. Resources spent in no-hope or surefire races are resources not spent in close but winnable ones. This effectively means ignoring the majority of voters while pandering non-stop to the decisive minority. And yes, that's quite unhealthy for democracy. But as a matter of political strategy, that's what works in elections as tight as this one.

[adma]

True, but doing what's "healthy for democracy" isn't necessarily a good way of winning elections - see: Nixon's 50-state strategy in 1960, better yet compare that to his much more cynical, yet much more effective Southern Strategy in 1968. Resources spent in no-hope or surefire races are resources not spent in close but winnable ones. This effectively means ignoring the majority of voters while pandering non-stop to the decisive minority. And yes, that's quite unhealthy for democracy. But as a matter of political strategy, that's what works in elections as tight as this one.

But it's also that the electorate has become so polarized and sorted in general that gaps that once seemed bridgeable, or at least slopes that once seemed "smoothable", don't exist anymore.  Thus how a lot of what was within Tommy Douglas's Saskatchewan radar is now basically 80-20 Sask Party.

Nevertheless, I'm looking beyond the matter of "winning elections"--or at least winning *parliamentary* elections, as often the infrastructure of a decent if futile federal or provincial campaign can serve as prep for a not-so-futile local cause--t/w something a little more "dynamic", shall we say.  Sort of like what led Mike Harris in '95 to get meaningful upper-teens shares where the Tories had previously been mid-to-low-single-digit, or Jack Layton to earn back a deposit in all but 2 ridings in 2011.  All of which bespeaks a sort of stealth "50-state" approach to things...

[DL]

Welcome to the world of first past the post, in our electoral system all that matters is the seat count so you put 100% of your efforts into the marginal seats and you ignore everything else. If Alberta had some sort of proportional representation system then an extra NDP vote in Drumheller would be worth just as much as an extra vote in Calgary. But we don’t have that system. It’s like a presidential election in the US where all that matters are five or six closely contested states. The GOP should not waste money trying to win Massachusetts and the Dems should not waste money trying to win Kentucky.

[adma]

Welcome to the world of first past the post, in our electoral system all that matters is the seat count so you put 100% of your efforts into the marginal seats and you ignore everything else. If Alberta had some sort of proportional representation system then an extra NDP vote in Drumheller would be worth just as much as an extra vote in Calgary. But we don’t have that system. It’s lime a presidential election in the US where all that matters are fb or six closely contested states

And also, as per my "sorting" point, it's a world where Nebraska and the Dakotas are no longer on-radar for the Dems except in extraordinary circumstances--the McGoverns or Kerreys or Conrads or Daschles of yesteryear are...yesteryear.

[DL]

The NDP did win one rural seat - Banff-Kananaskis. I'd like to see an analysis of that win. Often when the NDP does win rural seats in the west its ones in the far north that are heavily Indigenous - but that does not seem to be the case with Banff. I wonder if its more dependent on tourism and therefore votes more like an NDP seat on Vancouver island or in the Kootenays?