Democrats Have Edge in State Legislative Races

[bgwah]

To either Alcon, Jesus, bejkuy, CultureKing, Bob/Rob, Reagan Raider, and/or Bill Richardson (formerly Mark Warner), and anyone else with knowledge on this topic:

What's the latest on the state legislative races, particularly those in Oregon and Washington state?  Does it look, at this point, that Democrats will gain control of both houses of the Oregon legislature, as well as further cement their majorities in Washington state? 

The Democrats should be cementing their majorities in Washington.

[Frodo]

Thank you Jesus.

To either Alcon, Jesus, bejkuy, CultureKing, Bob/Rob, Reagan Raider, and/or Bill Richardson (formerly Mark Warner), and anyone else with knowledge on this topic:

What's the latest on the state legislative races, particularly those in Oregon and Washington state?  Does it look, at this point, that Democrats will gain control of both houses of the Oregon legislature, as well as further cement their majorities in Washington state? 

Anyone else want to have a crack at this? 

[jerusalemcar5]

I can take a crack at New York.

Democrats net gain +2 in the Senate (Republican majority still)

Democrats net gain +5 in the Assembly (continued Democratic dominance)

I don't see the Senate switching hands this year, it is too gerrymandered.  I even think the Republicans will pick back up the 49th district which is eastern Syracuse, eastern Syracuse suburbs, and some random rural towns. 

Our leg races will be very interesting this year because if the Republicans lose the Senate after 40 years in power the NYGOP might as well kiss themselves goodbye.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats net gain +2 in the Senate (Republican majority still)
Democrats net gain +5 in the Assembly (continued Democratic dominance)

If you're right, the State Senate would be 33-29 Republican, while the state Assembly would be 110-40 Democrat. That would be nuts, having 73% of one chamber and only 47% of the other.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Oregon is in many ways bucking the trend set by the national scene.  We've got a slightly closing race against a Democratic incumbent in Oregon's 5th Congressional District (though I expect the incumbent to win), we have possibly two or three State Senate gains, but we could lose a couple (maybe three) seats in the State House of Representatives.  Combine the gains in the State Senate with a potential Republican Gubernatorial win and that is a good year for Republicans in Oregon (especially if they only lose one or two House seats).

[Alcon]

Oregon is in many ways bucking the trend set by the national scene.  We've got a slightly closing race against a Democratic incumbent in Oregon's 5th Congressional District (though I expect the incumbent to win), we have possibly two or three State Senate gains, but we could lose a couple (maybe three) seats in the State House of Representatives.  Combine the gains in the State Senate with a potential Republican Gubernatorial win and that is a good year for Republicans in Oregon (especially if they only lose one or two House seats).

I guess some of that could be bouncing back.  2004 was a pretty bad election night for the Oregon GOP.

[Sam Spade]

Nothing's much changed in Texas.  When your Senate seats are bigger than Congressional seats, change happens slowly.  The Republicans pick up Armbrister's (D) seat in the Victoria area, as there is no Democratic challenger.  Frank Madla's old seat is the only other potentially interesting race, but Uresti probably wins it with 55%-60% of the vote.  Rest of the seats are ultra-safe, so the majority becomes 20-11 R.

The House races are more complex, and I haven't been following them closely, but there are probably about 10-15, 20 max seats that could be halfway interesting (out of 150).  The Democrats may gain a couple or lose a couple, whichever.  It won't change things at all.

[WMS]

Sadly, I ran out of time to do a massive study of my local legislative races. But, countering the national trend in 2006 like NM did in 2002, the Reps are poised to pick up one seat in the SE, Eddy County-based District 54 (open: retiring Dixiecrat). There are definitely other competitive seats on both sides (although not many - the gerrymander is at work) so...I'll have to see.