Danish referendum on EU defence opt-out, 1 June 2022

[Diouf]

As a part of a new emergency defence settlement, Danish PM Mette Frederiksen has just announced that a referendum on the defence opt-out from EU will be held on 1 June 2022.

[Diouf]

Poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken from the 4th March.

49% for abolishing the opt-out, 27% against, 23% not sure/don't know

[Diouf]

New poll on the referendum after it had been officially called.

Again Megafon for TV2 and Politiken. Now 55% in favour of abolishing the opt-out, 23% against, 22% don't know.

By 2019 party breakdown (caution around the smaller parties ofc). A bit of a weird choice to use that instead of current party.

Social Democrats 58/17/25
Liberals 70/14/17
Conservatives 73/14/13
Red-Green Alliance 31/38/31
Social Liberals 82/6/12
SPP 64/11/25
New Right 19/72/9
DPP 25/49/25
Liberal Alliance 57/27/16
Christian Democrats 51/17/33
Alternative 41/30/28
Hard Line 0/75/25
Klaus Riskjær Pedersen 47/28/25
Others 28/34/38

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2022-03-08-et-flertal-vil-afskaffe-forsvarsforbeholdet-viser-ny-maaling

[JimJamUK]

New poll on the referendum after it had been officially called.

Now 55% in favour of abolishing the opt-out, 23% against, 22% don't know.

By 2019 party breakdown

Social Democrats 58/17/25
Liberals 70/14/17
Conservatives 73/14/13
Red-Green Alliance 31/38/31
Social Liberals 82/6/12
SPP 64/11/25
New Right 19/72/9
DPP 25/49/25
Liberal Alliance 57/27/16
Christian Democrats 51/17/33
Alternative 41/30/28
Hard Line 0/75/25
Klaus Riskjær Pedersen 47/28/25

Adding together the blocs, the Red Bloc is 58/18/24 while the Blue Bloc is 55/26/19. Have Red Bloc voters ever been more pro-EU in a referendum than blue Blue Bloc voters (I seem to remember the former were a bit more eurosceptic in 2015 and likely a lot more so previously)?

[JimJamUK]

Also, the EL vote split is pretty historic. I expect many will fall in line by referendum day, but for their vote to be almost equally split 3 ways on an issue that combines euroscepticism with anti-war/West sentiment suggests a change in their voters attitudes (and that the other parties attacks of EL may move some votes).

[Diouf]

Adding together the blocs, the Red Bloc is 58/18/24 while the Blue Bloc is 55/26/19. Have Red Bloc voters ever been more pro-EU in a referendum than blue Blue Bloc voters (I seem to remember the former were a bit more eurosceptic in 2015 and likely a lot more so previously)?

I would think it was the case in 2015.
I can't find any research from after the result itself. I could only find these polls from a few days before. Here in Epinion the Blue voters were 33-39% against converting the opt-out to an opt-in, while Red Bloc voters favoured the change 40-35%. In the Gallup poll, Blue voters were 37-48%, while Red voters were 43-38%.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/htm/baggrund/generel/Retsforbeholdet%20-%20M%C3%A5ling%203%20-%20Afstemning.pdf

https://webtest.kantargallup.dk/storage/reports/September2019/pvi1qWmhZpFl5ZoHHf6U.pdf

[Diouf]

The most recent Voxmeter poll shows 40.3% yes, 35.4% no and 24.3% don't know.

Today Inger Støjberg announced that she will campaign for no. The decision was announced on her weekly video show which had Kristian Thulesen Dahl as guest. The two will campaign together, which has added to the rumours of a potential new party.

[Estrella]

I recall seeing exit polls from a previous EU referendum (I think it was the Europol one) that showed young people are significantly less pro-EU than older people. Is that really the case and if so, why? The only countries I can think of where something similar may be happening are places in a deep crisis like Greece or maybe Italy that obviously aren't comparable to Denmark.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I recall seeing exit polls from a previous EU referendum (I think it was the Europol one) that showed young people are significantly less pro-EU than older people. Is that really the case and if so, why? The only countries I can think of where something similar may be happening are places in a deep crisis like Greece or maybe Italy that obviously aren't comparable to Denmark.

A bit of an aside but I would be shocked if young Italians were less pro-EU than older Italians (and the only such poll divided by age I could find browsing shows indeed the opposite), although I am pretty confident that middle aged ones are less so than very old ones. I can't say about Greece and I am as puzzled as you about Denmark, of course.

[BlueSwan]

Starting to get a bad feeling that this will go similarly to previous elections about the opt-outs.

I'm not sure how so many can't seem to understand that we cannot forever rely on the protection of the United States. Trump could be back as soon as 2025.

[crals]

Starting to get a bad feeling that this will go similarly to previous elections about the opt-outs.

I'm not sure how so many can't seem to understand that we cannot forever rely on the protection of the United States. Trump could be back as soon as 2025.

Too many people will reflexively vote against any sort of European integration regardless of what it is about.

What is the official stance of smaller parties like LA and KD?

[BlueSwan]

Starting to get a bad feeling that this will go similarly to previous elections about the opt-outs.

I'm not sure how so many can't seem to understand that we cannot forever rely on the protection of the United States. Trump could be back as soon as 2025.

Too many people will reflexively vote against any sort of European integration regardless of what it is about.

What is the official stance of smaller parties like LA and KD?

They are both in favour of getting rid of the opt-out.

[JimJamUK]

I'm not sure how so many can't seem to understand that we cannot forever rely on the protection of the United States. Trump could be back as soon as 2025.

To be fair, the opt-out is fairly minor in the grand scheme of things (as a British citizen I never heard the CSDP mentioned during either the referendum or the Brexit negotiations, which given the ability of the campaigns to focus on small and misleading arguments is really something), while NATO is becoming an ever more Europe based organisation. Therefore, it’s quite understandable that the vote for removing the reservation is fairly soft and the campaign is entirely reliant on the fear factor of Putin’s Russia.

[Diouf]

I recall seeing exit polls from a previous EU referendum (I think it was the Europol one) that showed young people are significantly less pro-EU than older people. Is that really the case and if so, why? The only countries I can think of where something similar may be happening are places in a deep crisis like Greece or maybe Italy that obviously aren't comparable to Denmark.

A pretty significant explainer must be party choice. Liberals and Social Democrats have been quite dominant among the older generations. And the votes lost by the Liberals there, probably mainly went to another yes party, the Conservatives. So if everybody just followed their party's recommendation, one should imagine a bigger yes vote among older people than among the younger generations.

[Diouf]

Epinon for DR: 36% yes, 27% no, 33% don't know.

The article has the splits on gender and youth.
Men: 42%, 30%, 24%
Women: 31%, 23%, 41%

18-34 years: 27%, 22%, 42%
35-55 years: 35%, 30%, 31%
56-years+: 44%, 26%, 27%

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folkeafstemning-om-forsvarsforbehold-hver-tredje-er-i-tvivl

[Diouf]

Interesting article in Avisen Denmark about who the main characters of the referendum campaign is expected to be. The campaign will officially start on 7 May.

It says that Jakob Ellemann-Jensen has convinced MEP Søren Gade to join him as the front figures of the party's yes campaign. A significant victory for the yes side if Gade throws his weight fully behind it. He belongs to the more Eurosceptic part of the party, often disagrees with fellow Liberal MEP Morten Løkkegaard and has been rumoured as potentially joining up with Støjberg. He was a well-liked Minister of Defence and, despite not being a lead candidate, ended up with 201 696 personal votes in the 2019 European election, second of all candidates. He is particularly well-liked in the Liberal heartlands in Western and Northern Jutland.

The article states that of the five party leaders agreeing the National Compromise, Sofie Carsten Nielsen (Social Liberals) and Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) will, like Ellemann, go into the campaign fully, while Conservative leader Søren Pape and PM Mette Frederiksen will be less involved. Pape is hamstrung by internal disagreements. The nationalist wing is now dominant in the party's youth section, which therefore recommends a no, and is doing its best to whip party activists to campaign for no. Pape also doesn't want to enter the campaign as it could risk losing some of his new, more Eurosceptic voters, to DPP or New Right. For the government, it will be Minister of Defence, Morten Bødskov, playing the main role in the campaign. He is not the biggest ticket seller, but might have some gravitas as a fairly pragmatic, safe pair of hands, not an elitist, ideological pro-EU campaigner.

The part on the no-campaign is shorter, but makes the obvious conclusion that DPP's Morten Messerschmidt has been the main face of the no campaign so far, with Mai Villadsen (Red-Green Alliance) and Pernille Vermund (New Right) more quiet. Messerschmidt of course has the biggest EU-expertise and engagement so has a head start there, but maybe also the party leader who sees the biggest gain from dominating the no campaign. The Red-Greens seem a bit shell-shocked from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the pervasiveness of pro-Russian sentiments among parts of the party. Also a fair bit of their voters are fairly pro-EU, so they are not in a hurry to push them away.

https://avisendanmark.dk/artikel/dalls-analyse-eu-valgkamp-bliver-morten-b%C3%B8dskov-og-s%C3%B8ren-gade-mod-morten-messerschmidt?rss

[BlueSwan]

Interesting article in Avisen Denmark about who the main characters of the referendum campaign is expected to be. The campaign will officially start on 7 May.

It says that Jakob Ellemann-Jensen has convinced MEP Søren Gade to join him as the front figures of the party's yes campaign. A significant victory for the yes side if Gade throws his weight fully behind it. He belongs to the more Eurosceptic part of the party, often disagrees with fellow Liberal MEP Morten Løkkegaard and has been rumoured as potentially joining up with Støjberg. He was a well-liked Minister of Defence and, despite not being a lead candidate, ended up with 201 696 personal votes in the 2019 European election, second of all candidates. He is particularly well-liked in the Liberal heartlands in Western and Northern Jutland.

The article states that of the five party leaders agreeing the National Compromise, Sofie Carsten Nielsen (Social Liberals) and Pia Olsen Dyhr (SPP) will, like Ellemann, go into the campaign fully, while Conservative leader Søren Pape and PM Mette Frederiksen will be less involved. Pape is hamstrung by internal disagreements. The nationalist wing is now dominant in the party's youth section, which therefore recommends a no, and is doing its best to whip party activists to campaign for no. Pape also doesn't want to enter the campaign as it could risk losing some of his new, more Eurosceptic voters, to DPP or New Right. For the government, it will be Minister of Defence, Morten Bødskov, playing the main role in the campaign. He is not the biggest ticket seller, but might have some gravitas as a fairly pragmatic, safe pair of hands, not an elitist, ideological pro-EU campaigner.

The part on the no-campaign is shorter, but makes the obvious conclusion that DPP's Morten Messerschmidt has been the main face of the no campaign so far, with Mai Villadsen (Red-Green Alliance) and Pernille Vermund (New Right) more quiet. Messerschmidt of course has the biggest EU-expertise and engagement so has a head start there, but maybe also the party leader who sees the biggest gain from dominating the no campaign. The Red-Greens seem a bit shell-shocked from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the pervasiveness of pro-Russian sentiments among parts of the party. Also a fair bit of their voters are fairly pro-EU, so they are not in a hurry to push them away.

https://avisendanmark.dk/artikel/dalls-analyse-eu-valgkamp-bliver-morten-b%C3%B8dskov-og-s%C3%B8ren-gade-mod-morten-messerschmidt?rss

Really pathetic that Søren Pape and Mette Frederiksen are conveniently laying low.

[Diouf]

The tabloid Ekstra Bladet recommending a no. And it seems like they will even make a campaign for it, see the picture of the bus with the text "Are we only voting because of the war?". I can't remember seeing a newspaper doing this before. They will usually recommend things in the paper's editorials, but not campaign as such.

https://twitter.com/Knud_brix/status/1521197861312118784

[Diouf]

The campaign officially started yesterday.
Some pictures below of some of the posters.

https://twitter.com/alternativet_/status/1522942785430634496

https://twitter.com/PorebskiFilip/status/1523010714536841216

https://twitter.com/lytken/status/1522895894651228161

https://twitter.com/OliverAbildskov/status/1523241306398412800

[Diouf]

An overview of the polling, courtesy of Politiologi.dk

There seems to be a fairly stable lead for the yes side, but there are still about 25-30% undecideds in most of the polls. So once those people (perhaps) start tuning in at the last minute, there could be some significant movement still.

[BlueSwan]

At this point I think common sense only loses if there is extremely low lopsided turnout, which unfortunately is a real possibility. People just don't care about this election.

[JimJamUK]

Voxmeter have it at 46% Yes, 30% No, which is a much bigger lead than their previous few polls. There is still a large number of undecideds, but it’s hard to see No winning from that position in only a few days time.

[Diouf]

If anything it seems like the polls are moving towards a bigger win for the yes side now.
The polling graph above updates automatically, and both of the two most recent polls, from Megafon + Gallup, the yes-% is above 65%

[Diouf]

So the vote is tomorrow. Polls are open from 08.00 - 20.00. I presume we will get exit polls immediately after 20.00. And this should be a quite simple count, so real results should start coming in quickly.

As usual it should be possible to watch unrestricted streams from dr.dk and tv2.dk .

And the main broadsheet newspapers jp.dk and b.dk and politiken.dk will also have live coverage.

The official results are at https://kmdvalg.dk/Main

[BlueSwan]

Turnout so far seems to be around on par with local elections. I expect it to be somewhere in the vicinity of 70%, which is pretty good considering that nobody seems to care very much about the election, including most leading politicians.

For comparison, turnout for parliamentary elections is usually in the 85% range.

EDIT: I guess turnout may actually end up considerably lower than 70%, but let's see.