1968: RFK the Democratic nominee

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Would he be able to defeat Nixon?

[WPADEM]

The biggest political what if except for maybe JFK.

Here are my thoughts.

RFK could only win the nomination in two scenarios

(1) He enters the primaries early on and becomes the anti Johnson candidate before McCarty, creating a united front against Johnson and Humphrey, he of course he did not initially run.

(2) after surviving the attempt on his life, RFK gains a massive bump and keeps campaigning effectively knocking out McCarty, especially after McCarthy's comments about RFK's safety comes to light.  He campaigns across the country, showing party bosses that he can win and it's enough to get Daley to throw his support to RFK. Organized Labor and Southern Democrats were not going to give RFK their support, so winning the support of the big cities would be key. But it's going to be close.

After winning the nomination, RFK will need to do the following to win the election.

(1) Unite the Democratic party

(2) Walk the line on ending the Vietnam War and Urban Strife while denouncing radical elements in the Counterculture.  If there was anyone who could do this, it was RFK. Dare I say, he would run on a message of Peace with Honor and a Law and Order message, but from a Liberal perspective. RFK was known to have confrontations with the student radicals when they confronted him. He cannot be perceived as a peacenik and hippy and he knew that.

(3) Neutralize Johnson. LBJ's greatest fear was be succeeded by RFK and going down in history as the Mistake between the two Kennedy's.  He had the information that could damage, if not destroy RFK's candidacy? RFK would be well aware of this and would be well aware of Johnson's baggage.

(4) Convince Working Class voters to vote for him.  RFK found a connection with Working Class Whites during the Indiana primary who really admired his stances and toughness.  His prospects are really reliant on getting as many of these voters that he can.  He doesn't need to win them, but they are the glue of his coalition. After his death, some of these voters voted for George Wallace, others never voted for a Democrat on the Presidential level ever again.

(5) See Number two. Cannot emphasize that point enough.

If and only if he succeeds at these five points after winning the nomination, can RFK win the Presidency.

[dw93]

The biggest political what if except for maybe JFK.

Here are my thoughts.

RFK could only win the nomination in two scenarios

(1) He enters the primaries early on and becomes the anti Johnson candidate before McCarty, creating a united front against Johnson and Humphrey, he of course he did not initially run.

(2) after surviving the attempt on his life, RFK gains a massive bump and keeps campaigning effectively knocking out McCarty, especially after McCarthy's comments about RFK's safety comes to light.  He campaigns across the country, showing party bosses that he can win and it's enough to get Daley to throw his support to RFK. Organized Labor and Southern Democrats were not going to give RFK their support, so winning the support of the big cities would be key. But it's going to be close.

After winning the nomination, RFK will need to do the following to win the election.

(1) Unite the Democratic party

(2) Walk the line on ending the Vietnam War and Urban Strife while denouncing radical elements in the Counterculture.  If there was anyone who could do this, it was RFK. Dare I say, he would run on a message of Peace with Honor and a Law and Order message, but from a Liberal perspective. RFK was known to have confrontations with the student radicals when they confronted him. He cannot be perceived as a peacenik and hippy and he knew that.

(3) Neutralize Johnson. LBJ's greatest fear was be succeeded by RFK and going down in history as the Mistake between the two Kennedy's.  He had the information that could damage, if not destroy RFK's candidacy? RFK would be well aware of this and would be well aware of Johnson's baggage.

(4) Convince Working Class voters to vote for him.  RFK found a connection with Working Class Whites during the Indiana primary who really admired his stances and toughness.  His prospects are really reliant on getting as many of these voters that he can.  He doesn't need to win them, but they are the glue of his coalition. After his death, some of these voters voted for George Wallace, others never voted for a Democrat on the Presidential level ever again.

(5) See Number two. Cannot emphasize that point enough.

If and only if he succeeds at these five points after winning the nomination, can RFK win the Presidency.

This, but another factor that remains is Wallace. One could argue that while he hurt Nixon in the south, he hurt Humphrey more in the great lakes/midwest due to the crime issue, that'll likely be true if Kennedy doesn't do point two. Also, whether Johnson is kept at bay or not, Kennedy isn't winning Texas, HHH's win there was solely due to Johnson, even RFK winning Illinois and Ohio would be enough to make up Texas, and I still see RFK coming short in California.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think RFK would have lost the Presidency by a significantly larger margin than Humphrey had he won the won the nomination.

LBJ would have provided no support whatsover (and may have even discretely supported Nixon in a General Election against RFK and Wallace), and Wallace would done even better in the South, and flipped Midwestern States Humphrey carried to Nixon.
'

[WPADEM]

The biggest political what if except for maybe JFK.

Here are my thoughts.

RFK could only win the nomination in two scenarios

(1) He enters the primaries early on and becomes the anti Johnson candidate before McCarty, creating a united front against Johnson and Humphrey, he of course he did not initially run.

(2) after surviving the attempt on his life, RFK gains a massive bump and keeps campaigning effectively knocking out McCarty, especially after McCarthy's comments about RFK's safety comes to light.  He campaigns across the country, showing party bosses that he can win and it's enough to get Daley to throw his support to RFK. Organized Labor and Southern Democrats were not going to give RFK their support, so winning the support of the big cities would be key. But it's going to be close.

After winning the nomination, RFK will need to do the following to win the election.

(1) Unite the Democratic party

(2) Walk the line on ending the Vietnam War and Urban Strife while denouncing radical elements in the Counterculture.  If there was anyone who could do this, it was RFK. Dare I say, he would run on a message of Peace with Honor and a Law and Order message, but from a Liberal perspective. RFK was known to have confrontations with the student radicals when they confronted him. He cannot be perceived as a peacenik and hippy and he knew that.

(3) Neutralize Johnson. LBJ's greatest fear was be succeeded by RFK and going down in history as the Mistake between the two Kennedy's.  He had the information that could damage, if not destroy RFK's candidacy? RFK would be well aware of this and would be well aware of Johnson's baggage.

(4) Convince Working Class voters to vote for him.  RFK found a connection with Working Class Whites during the Indiana primary who really admired his stances and toughness.  His prospects are really reliant on getting as many of these voters that he can.  He doesn't need to win them, but they are the glue of his coalition. After his death, some of these voters voted for George Wallace, others never voted for a Democrat on the Presidential level ever again.

(5) See Number two. Cannot emphasize that point enough.

If and only if he succeeds at these five points after winning the nomination, can RFK win the Presidency.

This, but another factor that remains is Wallace. One could argue that while he hurt Nixon in the south, he hurt Humphrey more in the great lakes/midwest due to the crime issue, that'll likely be true if Kennedy doesn't do point two. Also, whether Johnson is kept at bay or not, Kennedy isn't winning Texas, HHH's win there was solely due to Johnson, even RFK winning Illinois and Ohio would be enough to make up Texas, and I still see RFK coming short in California.

An RFK wins scenario would basically be him sweeping the North East and Industrial Midwest. Winning Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin.  He certainly loses Texas, he only carries West Virginia and Maryland in the South. California comes down to turnout. It would be a photo finish.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

The election would have gone to the House.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

Would he be able to defeat Nixon?

With breaks he could have.