Where to look for potential upsets

[Chips]

I will be taking a look at upset opportunities for both parties (mostly Republicans) in 2022.

CO-SEN

Republicans are feeling down about this state, especially since they lost Gardner by a decent margin in 2020. However, since the VA election Republicans have been thinking that with a similar type of candidate they can strike the right balance of appealing to Trump supporters and independents/moderate Republicans in the state. One recent GOP leaning poll showed a dead even race and most forecast this as Likely D. Still, likely is not safe and I do think the right republican could make this a race to watch.

MO-SEN

On the opposite side of the field is Missouri. With a normal GOP candidate, this seat is in safe GOP hands but former governor Eric Greitens is leading GOP primary polls. Greitens had a scandal ridden governorship and resigned. Democrats are hoping that him becoming the nominee puts this seat back in play. Kander came surprisingly close to winning this very seat in 2016 despite Trump winning on the same ballot by 19 points so this seat being in play despite a favorable GOP year nationwide isn't unheard of.

WA-SEN

This just recently emerged as a faint pickup opportunity for the GOP with a few polls showing a single digit race here and Sabato having moved the race to Likely D citing those polls and a likely solid Republican nominee on their side. Murray is still quite favored but if Smiley can successfully block attempts to tie her to Trump and runs a good campaign, this could be an interesting race to watch.

NM-GOV

Grisham is still favored but Republicans do have a potential ace up their sleeve with Mark Ronchetti. Ronchetti ran for the senate race in 2020 and outran Trump on the same ballot by about 4.5 points, cementing himself as a candidate to keep an eye on. The only poll that put these two candidates head to head showed just a one point gap between the two.