1980: George H. W. Bush vs Ted Kennedy

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

How would the two primary runner-ups fare against each other?

[RC]

Well, Kennedy was way more popular than Carter and Bush was way less charismatic than Reagan. That being said, there would probably be some resentment toward Kennedy considering how bitter it even was IRL.

That being said, Kennedy does significantly better than Carter, but still falls short.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I don't think you can shake off a bad economy by simply selecting a different candidate (like how McCain was unable to distance himself from problems that were blamed on Bush).