Socially conservative Union members across the USA especially the Midwest...Reagan Democrats.
As has been noted here several times before, Nixon had far more appeal to this demographic than Reagan. Why do you think that West Virginia held on for Carter in '80 while McGovern had only won one county there eight years earlier? McGovern->Reagan areas are typified often by the academic presence that was the core of McGovern's base.
While Carter improved on McGovern’s disastrous performance with organized households, that speaks more to the sheer animosity between the Old Left and New Left McGovern foolishly attempted to navigate than Nixon’s own appeal vis a vis Reagan. Carter garnered relatively solid results in traditional labor strongholds such as Appalachia, the Iron Range, and northeastern metros (albeit the final with the potential caveat of an outsized Anderson vote siphoning off some Yankee Republican votes from Reagan). He received the AFL-CIO’s endorsement only after invoking Taft-Hartley to arbitrate between UMWA and management during the Bitminuous strike. Labor won their concessions, UMWA and the steelworkers bankrolled most of the AFL-CIO’s GOTV operations at the time, thus Carter didn’t suffer quite
the same catastrophe McGovern did w/r/t organized labor's laundry list of grievances.Nonetheless, Carter still contended with tepid enthusiasm. Labor saw many struggles in the 70s, whether the national postal workers strikes, the Lordstown rail strikes of 72, the aforementioned UMWA strikes, or the 79 Rhode Island airline clerks. Clashes McGovernites inspired unions to get behind Kennedy’s primary challenge in 1980, and even after their July endorsement consternation prevailed throughout the ranks.
Some academics cite Democratic primary reform as a catalyst in rank-and-file disgruntlement, however I defer to others on the intracacies of the delegate selection/voting process post-1972 clusterf____. Furthermore, labor became complacent. Workers succeeded in keeping wages in line with inflation.
At times, they won COLA-wage adjustments higher than inflation, such as when steelworkers struck in '71. When it wasn’t complacency, it was grievances over inflation and unemployment threatening pension/benefit funds’ amortization schedules. Collective bargaining necessitates increases in aggregate buying power to effectively negotiate. Inflation obviously eats at this buying power, and unemployment bled away at inflows from dues. For whatever reason one wants to surmise, the organized column wasn’t quite sure Carter had their back, and that alone makes it hard for any Democrat to win.
This lukewarm reconciliation culminated in defection. Reagan’s message on tackling inflation superseded the intrinsic ideological antipathy his record inspired and netted a few, though significant endorsements from some trades which harbored resentment toward Carter; Teamsters, PATCO (famously later the victims of Reagan's opening volleys in the modern war on the middle class), and the Airline Pilots.
Reagan personally thank the Teamsters for his support during his victory lap. Their predominantly ethnic white membership proved a bellwether in their endorsements from 1972-1980. The recession put half a million members off payroll onto unemployment, and illustrates the discontent which precipitated Carter's defeat. Ultimately contemporary sources place Reagan’s vote share at anywhere from
45% to
57% of organized households; I’m inclined to believe the lower estimate given the 12-point rightward shift nationally. Edison puts Carter at 62% of the union vote in '76, 48% in ‘80, and Mondale at 54% in ‘84, so I’d contend there is enough surrounding data to pin down ‘80 as a marked aberration in spite of traditional exit polling limitations.
Tl;dr: Conventional wisdom overstates the Reagan Democrat phenomenon in the north compared to its counterpart in the evangelical south. However there is a kernel of truth; The Old Left tolerated Carter in ‘76 before economic strife and internal squabbles in the rank-and-file gave Reagan an opening. Carter didn’t improve on McGovern’s showing because his labor relations were great - it’s because McGovern’s were
that inexecrable.
