2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[I’m not Stu]

Would Schrader likely win had he been more supportive of Biden's policies?

Maybe, but remember that his votes against key elements of Biden's policy agenda were the direct result of special interest donations he raked in during his tenure in Congress (e.g. he voted against prescription drug price reform after collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars from pharmaceutical industry donors).

Had he voted for them instead of against them, who would likely win the primary?

[I’m not Stu]

Would Schrader likely win had he been more supportive of Biden's policies?

Maybe, but remember that his votes against key elements of Biden's policy agenda were the direct result of special interest donations he raked in during his tenure in Congress (e.g. he voted against prescription drug price reform after collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars from pharmaceutical industry donors).

Had Schrader voted for them instead of against them, who would likely win the primary?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1527752746987835392?t=gpZwVXcLFa6jkjM7Xqqo2A&...

Calling it for Oz.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1527752746987835392?t=gpZwVXcLFa6jkjM7Xqqo2A&...

Calling it for Oz.

Too early to call it still imo, but every vote drop makes it more and more likely he wins. It’ll go to a full recount either way though.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1527752746987835392?t=gpZwVXcLFa6jkjM7Xqqo2A&...
Calling it for Oz.

Too early to call it still imo, but every vote drop makes it more and more likely he wins. It’ll go to a full recount either way though.

Recount is guaranteed.. but he's not hitting the margins anywhere to suggest that it will be close enough for the recount to flip the result.

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD-05-DEM PRIM UPDATE:

A few minor updates...

Marion County added a small number of new ballots today.

Their next scheduled update isn't until Wednesday 5/25/22, but maybe they'll provide some update prior since they ran into some vote counting / ballot delays (Although to a much lesser extent than Clackamas County).

5/18/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,494    (44.1%)         
Schrader:            1,892    (55.9%)        +11.8%       +398 Votes

5/20/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,896    (45.8%)         
Schrader:            2,246    (54.2%)        +8.4%        +350 Votes

TOTAL CHANGE 5/18 > 5/20:

McLeod-Skinner:  +402    (53.2%)        +6.4%        +48 Votes       
Schrader:            +354    (46.8%)       
TOTAL New Votes: 756

Clackamas County added a small numbers as another poster noted.

5/18/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,129    (42.4%)         
Schrader:            1,517    (57.0%)        +14.6%       +388 Votes

5/19/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,785    (43.9%)         
Schrader:            2,257    (55.5%)        +11.6%       +472 Votes

TOTAL CHANGE 5/18 > 5/19:

McLeod-Skinner:  +656    (46.7%)           
Schrader:            +740    (52.6%)      +5.9%        +84 Votes       
TOTAL New Votes:  +1,406


NOTE: Deschutes, Marion and Linn Counties don't have new vote updates scheduled until Wednesday, 5/25/22.

Not sure about Multnomah....

Jefferson county has only one precinct, which honestly I don't believe to have very many voters at all let alone a ton of Democratic Primary voters:

Suttle Lake (Precinct 15), but honestly if it comes down to this one precinct we are definitely in automatic recount territory....

Still keeping it on my radar...

Couple brief notes:

1.) Generally what we have observed thus far within all counties within the district is that the more election results come in the better McLeod-Skinners numbers improve.

This has been observed in Multnomah, Marion, and Linn Counties (Although I will exempt Clackamas County for the time being for obvious reasons).

2.) We don't really have a total solid handle on exactly how many outstanding votes are remaining to be counted, since this is looking more like a "Cali Style" election now that ballots are counted so long as they are post-marked / received by election day if they are Mail-In-Ballots.

Hopefully we have greater clarity on Total Votes (TV) outstanding by Monday for all of the counties involved...

[free my dawg]

Wasserman has seen enough in PA-12, calls it for Lee:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527677794607587335

Blue MAGA in shambles

[2016]

AP has declared Summer Lee the Winner in the PA-12 Democratic Primary

Lee currently has a 737-Vote lead over Steve Irwin.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I will not be calling OR-5 D until Clackamas has reported a substantially higher amount of its vote.
I will not be calling PA-SEN R until a concession is issued or a recount has been conducted.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1528065678091206661

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1528065678091206661

Extreme liberal socialist John Fetterman – the next Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock?

[NOVA Green]

OR CD-06: A Trickle of new votes added when I checked this morning with Mcleod-Skinner winning all three batches.

Breakdown below:

Clackamas County-  (71) new votes added

Mcleod-Skinner-     +39    (54.9%)           +11.2%       +8 Votes
Schrader-              +31    (43.7%)

Marion County-           (517) new votes added

Mcleod-Skinner-     +273    (52.8%)           +6.7%       +40 Votes
Schrader-              +233    (45.1%)

Multnomah County-       (110) new votes added

Mcleod-Skinner-     +68   (61.8%)           +23.6%       +26 Votes
Schrader-              +42    (38.2%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1528065678091206661

This reads like a concession to himself.

[NOVA Green]

Schrader campaign apparently was allowed to enter the Clackamas County elections office early to observe ballot counting, in the latest problems emerging for the Clackamas County elections office.

On Thursday, McLeod-Skinner filed a formal complaint with the Oregon Secretary of State’s office — as reported by Willamette Week — alleging that someone from Schrader’s campaign was allowed to observe the ballot counting process before the office opened.

Hall told reporters that a Schrader campaign representative was let into the building around 7 a.m., but they shouldn’t have entered the building until it opened at 8:30 a.m. Someone from McLeod-Skinner’s campaign wasn’t allowed into the observer’s area until after 8:30 a.m.

Reporters at the Friday press conference drilled Hall about whether this raised security concerns with the ballot count. Hall said all rooms in the building can only be accessed with security badges, and not every badge can access all rooms. Hall also said the room where votes are tallied can only be accessed by her, the elections manager, and a third person, whose job title she couldn’t remember.

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/05/20/clackamas-county-clerk-doesnt-know-how-schrader-campaign-accessed-elections-office-before-opening/

The complaint, obtained by WW from the Secretary of State’s Office, says an observer for the Schrader campaign was allowed into the building at 7:30 am Thursday—an hour before the McLeod-Skinner campaign observer was allowed into the observation room. (The McLeod-Skinner campaign says a Clackamas County logbook shows when the Schrader campaign’s observer entered the room.)

“Early access for one campaign and delayed access for an opposing campaign is not just unequal treatment,” says the May 19 complaint filed by Jamie for Oregon campaign manager Nichole van Eikeren. “It expressly violates ORS 254.482 as well as Clackamas County’s own SOS Security Plan.”

The campaign asked the secretary of state to investigate.

https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2022/05/19/in-state-elections-complaint-mcleod-skinner-campaign-alleges-unequal-access-to-clackamas-county-vote-count/

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Honestly, between this, the general incompetence of the county clerk out there, and their pattern so far of moving faster with the GOP primary votes, I’m quite concerned that a) Clackamas won’t be done counting by the deadline and b) the uncounted ballots will overwhelmingly be from liberal precincts where McLeod-Skinner should over perform the county as a whole

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1528065678091206661

DDNN shall take this opportunity to reiterate its six years-long endorsement of John Fetterman.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1528065678091206661

Extreme liberal socialist John Fetterman – the next Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock?

It’s funny how often Loeffler said that. But this could be an important tactic for Oz. Nobody is going to be very inspired by him so he needs to make it a referendum on Biden

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD06- DEM PRIM Update:

So not too much in the way of major developments...

The official OR SoS website still shows 48,684 Total Votes thus far, but the New York Times now shows 48,813 Total Votes.

Numbers don't match and SoS numbers between counties remain unchanged since my last update.

So I was curious and decided to compare NYT numbers against OR SoS numbers to see if maybe they caught a variation between a county level update not uploaded yet to the OR-SoS website.

Interestingly enough:

Deschutes County data sets for TV's match between NYT and SoS.

Multnomah County the (24) vote delta appears to be NYT not counting Write-Ins.

Linn County the (101) vote delta appears to also be the NYT not counting Write-Ins.

Marion County the (53) vote delta appears to also be the NYT not counting Write-Ins.

Still, the data-sets for Clackamas County does not match:

OR SoS currently shows 4,140 TVs and NYT shows 4,551 TVs.

So clearly Clackamas County is the source of the newest updates, regardless of the different ballot counting methods (NYT doesn't include Write-In ballots for at least many of the counties within the district).

Checked the ClackCo website and sure enough newest batch of ballots identified appear to be new votes:

OLD (OR SoS Website)

McLeod-Skinner:  1,824    (44.1%)        
Schrader:            2,288    (55.3%)        +11.2%       +464 Votes


NEW: (Clackamas County Elections website Link Below)

McLeod-Skinner:  2,012    (43.9%)        
Schrader:            2,539    (55.1%)        +11.2%       +527 Votes

Batch Difference: + 442 New Total DEM CD-05 PRIM Votes

McLeod-Skinner:  +188   (42.5%)        
Schrader:            +251   (56.8%)        +14.3%       +63 Votes

Better batch for Schrader than the last small batch, but still without knowing exactly where numbers are coming from with the whole ballot printing SNAFU 57-43 Schrader margins isn't going to cut it going forward to erase the Deschutes County and Multnomah County raw vote totals, regardless of how many votes might currently be "in reserve" in both counties.

Wednesday obviously might provide a greater degree of clarity, since hopefully Marion and Linn will dump most of their remaining ballots...

Clackamas County is facing dramatically increasing level of local and statewide frustration, not to mention the National Profile currently on this election.

Also turns out the head of the elections department is apparently is either a partisan Republican and/ or incompetent in her job since way back in 2014 by referring officially on a ballot instead of the "Democratic Party" apparently the "Democrat Party".

Either way she should be able to get a good OR PERS retirement package since not only Democrats but also Republicans in Oregon are extremely frustrated by what should have been a completely preventable fiasco in the state of Oregon which practically invented the 100% all VbM state.

Very embarrassing performance, and clearly we need a competent public official to oversea the department who actually delves into the details and performs their fiduciary job responsibilities, rather than apparently someone who is "just coasting" and maxing their retirement $$$ at the hands of OR taxpayers.

EDIT: Forgot to link to Clackamas County Elections website.

https://dochub.clackamas.us/documents/drupal/34a8e57a-ef9c-4c89-9672-e356f69557d3

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

WFIW, NYT now showing 45% of Clackamas reported. 55-45 Schrader, not close to where he need to be.

EDIT: And that has to be a typo, because no way in hell are there only 14,000 Clackamas ballots

[NOVA Green]

Clackamas County election clerk continues to buy time and defy the Secretary of State when it comes to providing a timeline for ballot counting...

Clackamas County’s top election official on Monday provided Oregon’s secretary of state with a verbal update on the county’s progress processing ballots, but said the county wouldn’t be able to submit a timeline detailing when it will finish tallying votes until Tuesday.

Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan had demanded that Clackamas County Clerk Sherry Hall submit a written plan by Monday amid ongoing delays that have upended multiple primary races and sullied the state’s celebrated vote-by-mail system.

However, Ben Morris, a spokesperson for Fagan, said late Monday that the county had requested another day to provide its full plan to the state because it didn’t start hand-duplicating ballots marred with a printing error until Monday morning at 7 a.m.

On Monday, Hall did not respond to text messages or emails sent by The Oregonian/OregonLive. Reached by phone in her office twice, she each time said she was in the middle of a meeting and promptly hung up.

In an emailed response sent by a county spokesperson but attributed to Hall, she failed to answer basic questions, including how many volunteer election workers counted votes over the weekend and how many workers from other counties were assisting with the effort. In a press release Monday evening, county officials said that 88 people processed ballots Sunday and 156 processed ballots Monday.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/05/clackamas-county-clerk-mum-on-ballot-count-timeline-demanded-by-oregon-secretary-of-state.html

[Buzz]

Just voted for Gary Black for GA senate!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just voted for Gary Black for GA senate!

I'm just disappointed we don't get last week's excitement-fest during every primary this cycle. 

[2016]

@Nova Green,
NY Times says 77 % of the 5th District Vote is in
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-oregon-us-house-district-5.html

For my part I have seen enough, McLeod-Skinner defeats Schrader.

[2016]

Just voted for Gary Black for GA senate!

I'm just disappointed we don't get last week's excitement-fest during every primary this cycle. 

There will be plenty of excitement tonight. Yes, GA & AR will probably very dull but the TX-Runoffs and the Alabama Primary is very exciting.

[wbrocks67]

The thing about GA is whether its closer to 50% or 60% for Kemp. I don't think it's out of the realm for him to get like 49% but I also think it's very possible for him to clear 60%