Describe the demorgaphics of this hypothetical county by voting history
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Author Topic: Describe the demorgaphics of this hypothetical county by voting history  (Read 6393 times)
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2022, 09:49:11 AM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%   
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%   
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34% 
1936: 68%  29%   
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%   
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7% 
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38% 
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71
Logged
Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2022, 07:47:52 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2022, 07:51:21 PM by JD Vance for Senate »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
The Pieman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: March 03, 2022, 08:47:38 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Southwestern Idaho?
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2022, 11:57:17 AM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74
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Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2022, 01:35:42 AM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2022, 12:55:41 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area


D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43

Logged
Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,493
United States
Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -2.26

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« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2022, 11:42:43 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area

Suburban county in North Carolina
D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43



Suburban county in North Carolina.

         D:    R:
1892: 53  42
1896: 30  64
1900: 44  53
1904: 46  51
1908: 42  51
1912: 44  29 22 (Progressive), 5 (Socialist)
1916: 48  46
1920: 38  56
1924: 38  49  13 (Progressive)
1928: 42  56
1932: 43  52
1936: 48  47
1940: 56  43
1944: 51  49
1948: 49  51
1952: 37  62
1956: 33   65
1960: 49   50
1964: 72    27
1968: 46    53
1972: 37    61
1976: 48    50
1980: 29    56  14 (Anderson)
1984: 29    68
1988: 34    64
1992: 37    35  27 (Perot)
1996: 48    37  17 (Perot)
2000: 46    48
2004:  51    47
2008:  53    46
2012:  49    48
2016:  40    53
2020:  42    56
Logged
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2022, 07:16:24 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area

Suburban county in North Carolina
D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43



Suburban county in North Carolina.

         D:    R:
1892: 53  42
1896: 30  64
1900: 44  53
1904: 46  51
1908: 42  51
1912: 44  29 22 (Progressive), 5 (Socialist)
1916: 48  46
1920: 38  56
1924: 38  49  13 (Progressive)
1928: 42  56
1932: 43  52
1936: 48  47
1940: 56  43
1944: 51  49
1948: 49  51
1952: 37  62
1956: 33   65
1960: 49   50
1964: 72    27
1968: 46    53
1972: 37    61
1976: 48    50
1980: 29    56  14 (Anderson)
1984: 29    68
1988: 34    64
1992: 37    35  27 (Perot)
1996: 48    37  17 (Perot)
2000: 46    48
2004:  51    47
2008:  53    46
2012:  49    48
2016:  40    53
2020:  42    56
Micropolitan Midwestern county that is whiter and more blue collar than the national average, and roughly average church attendance rates

R/D/3rd Party

1856: 33/46/20
1860: 45/43/11
1864: 58/42
1868: 56/44
1872: 45/55
1876: 49/50
1880: 54/46
1884: 53/46
1888: 52/47
1892: 51/47
1896: 60/40
1900: 57/41
1904: 66/25/8
1908: 56/40
1912: 38/39/23
1916: 53/43
1920: 57/39
1924: 61/18/21
1928: 57/43
1932: 48/49
1936: 39/55
1940: 51/49
1944: 52/48
1948: 52/47
1952: 60/40
1956: 66/34
1960: 55/45
1964: 45/55
1968: 50/37/13
1972: 66/33
1976: 60/38
1980: 58/36
1984: 63/36
1988: 61/38
1992: 48/37/16
1996: 50/43
2000: 54/43
2004: 53/47
2008: 46/53
2012: 46/53
2016: 42/53
2020: 41/57
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Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2022, 03:43:48 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area

Suburban county in North Carolina
D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43



Suburban county in North Carolina.

         D:    R:
1892: 53  42
1896: 30  64
1900: 44  53
1904: 46  51
1908: 42  51
1912: 44  29 22 (Progressive), 5 (Socialist)
1916: 48  46
1920: 38  56
1924: 38  49  13 (Progressive)
1928: 42  56
1932: 43  52
1936: 48  47
1940: 56  43
1944: 51  49
1948: 49  51
1952: 37  62
1956: 33   65
1960: 49   50
1964: 72    27
1968: 46    53
1972: 37    61
1976: 48    50
1980: 29    56  14 (Anderson)
1984: 29    68
1988: 34    64
1992: 37    35  27 (Perot)
1996: 48    37  17 (Perot)
2000: 46    48
2004:  51    47
2008:  53    46
2012:  49    48
2016:  40    53
2020:  42    56
Micropolitan Midwestern county that is whiter and more blue collar than the national average, and roughly average church attendance rates

R/D/3rd Party

1856: 33/46/20
1860: 45/43/11
1864: 58/42
1868: 56/44
1872: 45/55
1876: 49/50
1880: 54/46
1884: 53/46
1888: 52/47
1892: 51/47
1896: 60/40
1900: 57/41
1904: 66/25/8
1908: 56/40
1912: 38/39/23
1916: 53/43
1920: 57/39
1924: 61/18/21
1928: 57/43
1932: 48/49
1936: 39/55
1940: 51/49
1944: 52/48
1948: 52/47
1952: 60/40
1956: 66/34
1960: 55/45
1964: 45/55
1968: 50/37/13
1972: 66/33
1976: 60/38
1980: 58/36
1984: 63/36
1988: 61/38
1992: 48/37/16
1996: 50/43
2000: 54/43
2004: 53/47
2008: 46/53
2012: 46/53
2016: 42/53
2020: 41/57

Rural, Midwestern county with an above average religiosity rate and somewhat suburban.

                  Dem:      Rep:
1876: 69/30
1880: 62/36
1884: 64/34
1888: 55/43
1892: 49/40/6 (Populist)
1896: 57/40
1900: 64/34
1904: 50/47
1908: 51/46
1912: 42/30/21 (Progressive)
1916: 57/40
1920:45/51
1924: 47/35/12 (Progressive)
1928: 45/52
1932: 76/22
1936: 78/20
1940: 70/29
1944: 69/30
1948: 55/28/16 (States' Rights)
1952: 63/37
1956:50/34/16 (States' Rights)
1960: 60/39
1964: 52/47
1968: 30/36/34 (Wallace)
1972: 42/57
1976: 56/42
1980: 49/44
1984: 45/52
1988: 52/45
1992: 50/32/13 (Perot)
1996: 57/28
2000: 57/40
2004: 53/45
2008: 54/44
2012: 54/44
2016: 42/52
2020: 45/52
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,928
United States


Political Matrix
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« Reply #34 on: April 08, 2022, 11:24:46 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area

Suburban county in North Carolina
D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43



Suburban county in North Carolina.

         D:    R:
1892: 53  42
1896: 30  64
1900: 44  53
1904: 46  51
1908: 42  51
1912: 44  29 22 (Progressive), 5 (Socialist)
1916: 48  46
1920: 38  56
1924: 38  49  13 (Progressive)
1928: 42  56
1932: 43  52
1936: 48  47
1940: 56  43
1944: 51  49
1948: 49  51
1952: 37  62
1956: 33   65
1960: 49   50
1964: 72    27
1968: 46    53
1972: 37    61
1976: 48    50
1980: 29    56  14 (Anderson)
1984: 29    68
1988: 34    64
1992: 37    35  27 (Perot)
1996: 48    37  17 (Perot)
2000: 46    48
2004:  51    47
2008:  53    46
2012:  49    48
2016:  40    53
2020:  42    56
Micropolitan Midwestern county that is whiter and more blue collar than the national average, and roughly average church attendance rates

R/D/3rd Party

1856: 33/46/20
1860: 45/43/11
1864: 58/42
1868: 56/44
1872: 45/55
1876: 49/50
1880: 54/46
1884: 53/46
1888: 52/47
1892: 51/47
1896: 60/40
1900: 57/41
1904: 66/25/8
1908: 56/40
1912: 38/39/23
1916: 53/43
1920: 57/39
1924: 61/18/21
1928: 57/43
1932: 48/49
1936: 39/55
1940: 51/49
1944: 52/48
1948: 52/47
1952: 60/40
1956: 66/34
1960: 55/45
1964: 45/55
1968: 50/37/13
1972: 66/33
1976: 60/38
1980: 58/36
1984: 63/36
1988: 61/38
1992: 48/37/16
1996: 50/43
2000: 54/43
2004: 53/47
2008: 46/53
2012: 46/53
2016: 42/53
2020: 41/57

Rural, Midwestern county with an above average religiosity rate and somewhat suburban.

                  Dem:      Rep:
1876: 69/30
1880: 62/36
1884: 64/34
1888: 55/43
1892: 49/40/6 (Populist)
1896: 57/40
1900: 64/34
1904: 50/47
1908: 51/46
1912: 42/30/21 (Progressive)
1916: 57/40
1920:45/51
1924: 47/35/12 (Progressive)
1928: 45/52
1932: 76/22
1936: 78/20
1940: 70/29
1944: 69/30
1948: 55/28/16 (States' Rights)
1952: 63/37
1956:50/34/16 (States' Rights)
1960: 60/39
1964: 52/47
1968: 30/36/34 (Wallace)
1972: 42/57
1976: 56/42
1980: 49/44
1984: 45/52
1988: 52/45
1992: 50/32/13 (Perot)
1996: 57/28
2000: 57/40
2004: 53/45
2008: 54/44
2012: 54/44
2016: 42/52
2020: 45/52
Rural County in Arkansas that has a roughly equal amount of Whites and African Americans, and is blue collar

R/D/3rd

1892: 40/34/26
1896: 51/45
1900: 51/42
1904: 60/23/17
1908: 54/32/15
1912: 1/39/60
1916: 57/35
1920: 72/20
1924: 67/9/24
1928: 79/20
1932: 46/48
1936: 43/55
1940: 55/43
1944: 57/42
1948: 61/36
1952: 70/29
1956: 67/32
1960: 61/39
1964: 56/44
1968: 63/30
1972: 69/27
1976: 62/35
1980: 68/23
1984: 75/24
1988: 68/31
1992: 44/32/25
1996: 52/38/10
2000: 56/40
2004: 60/39
2008: 50/48
2012: 52/46
2016: 42/51
2020: 44/53
Logged
Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,493
United States
Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -2.26

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« Reply #35 on: April 09, 2022, 01:17:15 AM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area

Suburban county in North Carolina
D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43



Suburban county in North Carolina.

         D:    R:
1892: 53  42
1896: 30  64
1900: 44  53
1904: 46  51
1908: 42  51
1912: 44  29 22 (Progressive), 5 (Socialist)
1916: 48  46
1920: 38  56
1924: 38  49  13 (Progressive)
1928: 42  56
1932: 43  52
1936: 48  47
1940: 56  43
1944: 51  49
1948: 49  51
1952: 37  62
1956: 33   65
1960: 49   50
1964: 72    27
1968: 46    53
1972: 37    61
1976: 48    50
1980: 29    56  14 (Anderson)
1984: 29    68
1988: 34    64
1992: 37    35  27 (Perot)
1996: 48    37  17 (Perot)
2000: 46    48
2004:  51    47
2008:  53    46
2012:  49    48
2016:  40    53
2020:  42    56
Micropolitan Midwestern county that is whiter and more blue collar than the national average, and roughly average church attendance rates

R/D/3rd Party

1856: 33/46/20
1860: 45/43/11
1864: 58/42
1868: 56/44
1872: 45/55
1876: 49/50
1880: 54/46
1884: 53/46
1888: 52/47
1892: 51/47
1896: 60/40
1900: 57/41
1904: 66/25/8
1908: 56/40
1912: 38/39/23
1916: 53/43
1920: 57/39
1924: 61/18/21
1928: 57/43
1932: 48/49
1936: 39/55
1940: 51/49
1944: 52/48
1948: 52/47
1952: 60/40
1956: 66/34
1960: 55/45
1964: 45/55
1968: 50/37/13
1972: 66/33
1976: 60/38
1980: 58/36
1984: 63/36
1988: 61/38
1992: 48/37/16
1996: 50/43
2000: 54/43
2004: 53/47
2008: 46/53
2012: 46/53
2016: 42/53
2020: 41/57

Rural, Midwestern county with an above average religiosity rate and somewhat suburban.

                  Dem:      Rep:
1876: 69/30
1880: 62/36
1884: 64/34
1888: 55/43
1892: 49/40/6 (Populist)
1896: 57/40
1900: 64/34
1904: 50/47
1908: 51/46
1912: 42/30/21 (Progressive)
1916: 57/40
1920:45/51
1924: 47/35/12 (Progressive)
1928: 45/52
1932: 76/22
1936: 78/20
1940: 70/29
1944: 69/30
1948: 55/28/16 (States' Rights)
1952: 63/37
1956:50/34/16 (States' Rights)
1960: 60/39
1964: 52/47
1968: 30/36/34 (Wallace)
1972: 42/57
1976: 56/42
1980: 49/44
1984: 45/52
1988: 52/45
1992: 50/32/13 (Perot)
1996: 57/28
2000: 57/40
2004: 53/45
2008: 54/44
2012: 54/44
2016: 42/52
2020: 45/52
Rural County in Arkansas that has a roughly equal amount of Whites and African Americans, and is blue collar

R/D/3rd

1892: 40/34/26
1896: 51/45
1900: 51/42
1904: 60/23/17
1908: 54/32/15
1912: 1/39/60
1916: 57/35
1920: 72/20
1924: 67/9/24
1928: 79/20
1932: 46/48
1936: 43/55
1940: 55/43
1944: 57/42
1948: 61/36
1952: 70/29
1956: 67/32
1960: 61/39
1964: 56/44
1968: 63/30
1972: 69/27
1976: 62/35
1980: 68/23
1984: 75/24
1988: 68/31
1992: 44/32/25
1996: 52/38/10
2000: 56/40
2004: 60/39
2008: 50/48
2012: 52/46
2016: 42/51
2020: 44/53

Suburban county in Kansas
          R:           D:
1876: 41/58
1880: 43/52
1884: 42/54
1888: 42/55
1892: 43/52
1896:  33/63
1900:  46/51
1904: 50/43
1908: 34/54/9 (Socialist)
1912: 21/42/26 (Progressive)/10 (Socialist)
1916: 36/59
1920: 39/55
1924: 40/44/14 (Progressive)
1928: 61/37
1932: 3/93
1936: 25/74
1940: 30/68
1944: 40/59
1948: 49/50
1952: 51/47
1956: 50/49
1960: 55/43
1964: 25/74
1968: 59/21/16 (American Independent)
1972: 77/21
1976: 52/43
1980: 56/36/5 (Anderson)
1984: 65/34
1988: 57/40
1992: 41/51/7 (Perot)
1996: 49/48
2000: 58/36
2004: 59/39
2008: 50/47
2012: 52/46
2016: 62/36
2020: 62/36 
Logged
GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,928
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: -1.04

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« Reply #36 on: April 09, 2022, 04:36:45 PM »

A midwestern county that was at one point very rural (see populist vote) but has morphed into the suburbs of a major city and has therefore drifted D.
Like with Christian Man, this county is different from my previous three which were all in NY State (with the first and third being Upstate Rust Belt counties, and the second being a suburban Long Island county)

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/40
1884: 53/47
1888: 54/46
1892: 60/39
1896: 57/42
1900: 59/41
1904: 77/22
1908: 71/27
1912: 81/10/10 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1916: 86/14
1920: 75/25
1924: 77/20
1928: 65/35
1932: 78/20
1936: 74/26
1940: 67/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 48/40/12 (Dixiecrat)
1952: 39/60
1956: 32/57/11 (Dixiecrat)
1960: 40/59
1964: 48/51
1968: 27/53/20 (American Independent)
1972: 33/65
1976: 44/55
1980: 37/53/10 (Independent)
1984: 35/64
1988: 40/59
1992: 43.6/43.7/13 (Reform)
1996: 45/49
2000: 44/50
2004: 51/48
2008: 58/40
2012: 55/43
2016: 59/34
2020: 66/32

Dixiecratic county that increased in population over time. It seems like Mississippi would be the most likely place. More Christian than average and slightly wealthier.

           D:    R:
1880: 64    35
1884: 58    40
1888: 56    39
1892: 67    24 (Populist: 6)
1896: 58    39
1900: 65    31
1904: 70    24
1908: 71    27
1912: 67   26    (Progressive: 5)
1916: 73   26
1920: 61   38
1924: 74   14  (Progressive: 12)
1928: 65   34
1932: 85   13
1936: 84   14
1940: 76   22
1944: 72   27
1948: 58   27 (States' Rights: 14)
1952: 57   42
1956: 56   42
1960: 69   29
1964: 75   24
1968: 36   32  (American Independent: 31)
1972: 30   65
1976: 48    50
1980: 40    54  (Anderson: 7)
1984: 32    66
1988: 33    66
1992: 34    47 (Perot: 16)
1996: 39   55 (Perot: 6)
2000: 41   57
2004: 40   59
2008: 49.7 49.1
2012: 50   48
2016: 56   37
2020: 64   34


D/R/3rd Party

1880: 60/38
1884: 55/43
1888: 57/42
1892: 59/38
1896: 35/62
1900: 45/54
1904: 50/47
1908: 48/50
1912: 46/7/47 (largely Progressive, Dems won)
1916: 50/49
1920: 45/54
1924: 43/53
1928: 40/60
1932: 51/48
1936: 60/37
1940: 59/41
1944: 57/43
1948: 48/47
1952: 45/55
1956: 41/59
1960: 49/50
1964: 64/36
1968: 41/43/16 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 37/60
1976: 47/50
1980: 47/48
1984: 42/58
1988: 48/52
1992: 49/38/13 (Reform)
1996: 52/41/8 (Reform, adds up to 101 because of rounding)
2000: 50/48
2004: 50/49
2008: 55/43
2012: 55/44
2016: 54/41
2020: 59/39

Getting some Upper South vibes with this answer with Maryland being the most likely state. Average religiosity and above-average but not wealthy when it comes to the average GDP. This one's starting a few decades later.

           D:    R:
1912:  34    24 (Prog:31; Socialist: 9%)
1916:   34    63
1920:   31    56  (Nonpartisan League:7%)
1924:   4      46  (Progressive: 48%)
1928:   39     60
1932:  66      31
1936:  60      36
1940:  49.6      49.7
1944:  52      48
1948:  65      33
1952:  26     73
1956:  51     48
1960:  50     49
1964:  57     41
1968: 40      54
1972: 46      52
1976:  51     48
1980:  33     58  (Anderson: 6%)
1984:  39     60
1988:  52     46
1992: 41      37  (Perot: 20%)
1996:  47     38  (Perot: 13%)
2000:  40     56
2004:  34     63
2008:  48     49
2012:  41     54
2016:  25    66  (Libertarian: 6%)
2020:  20    76
90%+ white, roughly 20% college-educated county in a rural part of the Upper Midwest

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 53/38
1896: 65/33
1900: 71/26
1904: 82/15
1908: 69/27
1912: 27/28/45 (Progressive)
1916: 49/45
1920: 72/18
1924: 57/8/35 (Progressive)
1928: 59/40
1932: 38/59
1936: 33/57
1940: 44/56
1944: 42/57
1948: 32/65
1952: 44/55
1956: 44/55
1960: 41/59
1964: 29/70
1968: 33/61
1972: 50/47
1976: 36/62
1980: 38/52
1984: 48/52
1988: 44/55
1992: 30/42/28 (Reform)
1996: 34/51/15 (Reform)
2000: 48/47
2004: 53/46
2008: 50/48
2012: 50/48
2016: 50/41
2020: 50/48


Seems Midwestern, lower-middle class, average religiosity. Might go further back in time in another one, but for now I'll do another 1912-present.

          D:      R:

1912: 60/22/20 (Progressive)
1916: 60/38
1920: 57/39
1924: 67/30
1928:55/44
1932: 71/29
1936: 75/22
1940: 71/28
1944: 68/32
1948: 76/22
1952: 75/23
1956: 67/33
1960: 72/27
1964: 88/11
1968: 66/16/17 (American Independent)
1972: 54/45
1976: 74/25
1980: 72/28
1984: 57/42
1988: 58/41
1992: 47/34/16 (Perot)
1996: 50/39/9 (Perot)
2000: 44/53
2004: 32/66
2008: 36/62
2012: 36/60
2016: 21/71
2020: 19/78
Very white, non-college educated, and working class. It is likely located in Appalachia or the Upper South.

R/D/3rd Party

1892: 54/44
1896: 60/39
1900: 62/37
1904: 58/41
1908: 57/41
1912: 60/35
1916: 48.1/47.7
1920: 61/39
1924: 57/38
1928: 57/42
1932: 42/57
1936: 50/49
1940: 50/49
1944: 60/41 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1948: 59/41
1952: 56/43
1956: 56/44
1960: 45/55
1964: 35/66 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1968: 38/35/26 (mostly American Independent)
1972: 67/31
1976: 45/55
1980: 54/40
1984: 61/39
1988: 64/36
1992: 45/38/17 (mostly Reform)
1996: 49/44
2000: 48.8/49.1
2004: 49/50
2008: 37/62
2012: 34/65
2016: 33/63
2020: 29/70


Former rural turned suburban county in the DC metro area. Above average religiosity and wealth.

          D:    R:
1888:  75% 25%
1892:  80% 20%
1896:  71%  27%
1900:  61%  39%
1904:  46%  49%
1908:  50%  46%
1912: 44%   27%  23% (Progressive)
1916: 54%   42%
1920: 41%   57%
1924:  33%  54% 11% (Progressive)
1928:  35%  63%
1932:  50%  47%
1936:  63%  32%
1940:  60%  38%
1944:  60%  38%
1948:  71%  26%
1952:  63%  37%
1956: 55%   45%
1960:  58%  41%
1964:  63%  36%
1968:  33%  29%  37% (American Independent)
1972:  31%  67%
1976:  61%  35%
1980:  49%  45%  7% (Anderson)
1984:  48%  52%
1988:  47%  51%
1992: 54%   36%  18% (Perot)
1996:  59%  32%  8% (Perot)
2000: 52%   44%
2004:  52%   46%
2008:  48%   50%
2012:  45%   53%
2016:  38%   60%
2020:  30%   68%

Historically mining county in Southern Missouri that was pro-confederate during the Civil War. FDR's narrow victory in 1932 is explained by a brief upsurge in Republican support following Hoover's victory in 28.

County founded in 1898
          D       R
1900: 46%  51%
1904: 37%  61%  
1908: 42%  55%
1912: 44%  11% (Roosevelt) 36% (Debs) 7%
1916: 56%  42%
1920: 49%  47%  (Debs) 2%  
1924: 47%  33%  (LaFollette) 18%
1928: 55%  44%
1932: 64%  34%  
1936: 68%  29%    
1940: 56%  43%
1944: 59%  40%
1948: 66%  31% (Wallace) 2%
1952: 63%  36%
1956: 55%  34%
1960: 57%  42%
1964: 73%  26%
1968: 56%  33% (Wallace) 9%  
1972: 53%  45%
1976: 65%  33%
1980: 54%  41%  (Anderson) 3%
1984:  52% 47%
1988:  60%  38%
1992:   57%  34% (Perot)   7%  
1996:  67%  28% (Perot)   4%
2000:  55%  41%  (Nader) 3%
2004:  56%  43%
2008:  48%  51%
2012:  45%  53%
2016:  35%  59% (Johnson) 3%
2020:  60%  38%  
Rural County in Northern Appalachia where a large college was built and opened between 2016 and 2020

D/R/3rd Party

1888: 62/36
1892: 63/33
1896: 62/36
1900: 59/39
1904: 54/41
1908: 58/37
1912: 59/19/22
1916: 64/34
1920: 56/42
1924: 54/42
1928: 43/56
1932: 65/33
1936: 65/34
1940: 60/40
1944: 59/41
1948: 62/37
1952: 59/41
1956: 57/44 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1960: 56/44
1964: 75/25
1968: 57/35
1972: 41/58
1976: 62/37
1980: 58/38
1984: 59/40
1988: 65/35
1992: 56/23/21
1996: 56/29/15
2000: 53/43
2004: 49/50
2008: 48.6/49.0
2012: 40/58
2016: 28/68
2020: 28/71


Southern rural county with a sizeable black population.

           D:             R:
1880:   23              76
1884:   52              47
1888:   35              63
1892:   <1              18  (80% Populist)
1896:    89              10
1900:    76             23
1904:    32           18    (37% Socialist, 11% Populist)
1908:     51          33    (12% Socialist)
1912:     39          11     (25% Socialist, 25% Progressive)
1916:     45          26     (27% Socialist)
1920:     36          42     (20% Socialist)
1924:     25           20     (53% Progressive)
1928:     61          36
1932:     79          20
1936:    84          15
1940:    76          23
1944:    64          35
1948:    50          41  (7% Progressive)
1952:    50          49
1956:    42          55
1960:    63          36
1964:    58          41
1968:    27          30    (41% American Independent)
1972:    26          73
1976:    57          38
1980:    20          71     (5% Anderson)
1984:    13          81
1988:    17         78
1992:    3           51      (46% Perot)
1996:    10         58       (23% Perot)
2000:    6          76        (17% Reform)
2004:    22        74              
2008:    21        73                
2012:    20       78        
2016:    11       69         (9% Johnson, 7% Bernie write-in)
2020:    13       84        
Probably somewhere in the rural Interior West that is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar, though not particularly religious

R/D/3rd Party

1884: 49/44
1888: 54/42
1892: 54/39
1896: 58/38
1900: 56/40
1904: 56/39
1908: 55/41
1912: 28/40/27/5 (Progressive/Prohibition)
1916: 55/40
1920: 70/26
1924: 73/23
1928: 73/26
1932: 64/33
1936: 64/34
1940: 66/33
1944: 64/36
1948: 67/28
1952: 75/25
1956: 78/22
1960: 66/34
1964: 36/64
1968: 53/41
1972: 59/41
1976: 54/45
1980: 42/40/14 (John Anderson)
1984: 48/51
1988: 41/59
1992: 28/56/16 (Reform)
1996: 31/56/7 (Reform)
2000: 33/54/11 (Green)
2004: 33/64
2008: 28/70
2012: 28/69
2016: 24/68
2020: 24/74


Highly educated, white-collar and secular county.

               D:    R:
1880:      52     44
1884:       50    46
1888:       53    44
1892:       56    18     26 (Populist)
1896:       69     24
1900:        72     15   7 (Prohibition)
1904:        66     18    10 (Socialist)
1908:        62     19     10 (Socialist)
1912:        68      7     15 (Progressive),  10 (Socialist)
1916:        57      28    8 (Socialist), 7 (Prohibition)
1920:        57      35    5 (Socialist)
1924:        54       18    22 (Progressive), 5 (Prohibition)
1928:        25       71
1932:        64       32
1936:        65       35
1940:       59        39
1944:      56         43
1948:      37         46  13 (States' Rights)
1952:      30          68
1956:      30          68
1960:      37          61
1964:       36         63
1968:       15         56  28 (American Independent)
1972:        12        84
1976:        39        59
1980:        25        70
1984:        17        82
1988:        22       76
1992:        24       51  23 (Perot)
1996:        34       55  10 (Perot)
2000:        35       62
2004:        31        67
2008:        36       62
2012:        35       63
2016:        36       60
2020:       37        61
Upper South county that is developing into an outer suburban area

Suburban county in North Carolina
D/R/3rd Party

1896: 67/29
1900: 72/11
1904: 77/18
1908: 57/24
1912: 58/12/30 (Roosevelt)
1916: 44/39
1920: 39/55
1924: 50/34
1928: 39/60
1932: 65/35
1936: 60/40
1940: 59/41
1944: 56/44
1948: 44.7/44.6
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/65
1960: 32/68
1964: 44/56
1968: 20/44/36 (Wallace)
1972: 17/83
1976: 49/50
1980: 36/60
1984: 27/74 (adds up to 101 because of rounding)
1988: 31/68
1992: 33/42/25 (Perot)
1996: 47/39/14 (Perot)
2000: 51/47
2004: 47/53
2008: 59/40
2012: 62/37
2016: 60/36
2020: 56/43



Suburban county in North Carolina.

         D:    R:
1892: 53  42
1896: 30  64
1900: 44  53
1904: 46  51
1908: 42  51
1912: 44  29 22 (Progressive), 5 (Socialist)
1916: 48  46
1920: 38  56
1924: 38  49  13 (Progressive)
1928: 42  56
1932: 43  52
1936: 48  47
1940: 56  43
1944: 51  49
1948: 49  51
1952: 37  62
1956: 33   65
1960: 49   50
1964: 72    27
1968: 46    53
1972: 37    61
1976: 48    50
1980: 29    56  14 (Anderson)
1984: 29    68
1988: 34    64
1992: 37    35  27 (Perot)
1996: 48    37  17 (Perot)
2000: 46    48
2004:  51    47
2008:  53    46
2012:  49    48
2016:  40    53
2020:  42    56
Micropolitan Midwestern county that is whiter and more blue collar than the national average, and roughly average church attendance rates

R/D/3rd Party

1856: 33/46/20
1860: 45/43/11
1864: 58/42
1868: 56/44
1872: 45/55
1876: 49/50
1880: 54/46
1884: 53/46
1888: 52/47
1892: 51/47
1896: 60/40
1900: 57/41
1904: 66/25/8
1908: 56/40
1912: 38/39/23
1916: 53/43
1920: 57/39
1924: 61/18/21
1928: 57/43
1932: 48/49
1936: 39/55
1940: 51/49
1944: 52/48
1948: 52/47
1952: 60/40
1956: 66/34
1960: 55/45
1964: 45/55
1968: 50/37/13
1972: 66/33
1976: 60/38
1980: 58/36
1984: 63/36
1988: 61/38
1992: 48/37/16
1996: 50/43
2000: 54/43
2004: 53/47
2008: 46/53
2012: 46/53
2016: 42/53
2020: 41/57

Rural, Midwestern county with an above average religiosity rate and somewhat suburban.

                  Dem:      Rep:
1876: 69/30
1880: 62/36
1884: 64/34
1888: 55/43
1892: 49/40/6 (Populist)
1896: 57/40
1900: 64/34
1904: 50/47
1908: 51/46
1912: 42/30/21 (Progressive)
1916: 57/40
1920:45/51
1924: 47/35/12 (Progressive)
1928: 45/52
1932: 76/22
1936: 78/20
1940: 70/29
1944: 69/30
1948: 55/28/16 (States' Rights)
1952: 63/37
1956:50/34/16 (States' Rights)
1960: 60/39
1964: 52/47
1968: 30/36/34 (Wallace)
1972: 42/57
1976: 56/42
1980: 49/44
1984: 45/52
1988: 52/45
1992: 50/32/13 (Perot)
1996: 57/28
2000: 57/40
2004: 53/45
2008: 54/44
2012: 54/44
2016: 42/52
2020: 45/52
Rural County in Arkansas that has a roughly equal amount of Whites and African Americans, and is blue collar

R/D/3rd

1892: 40/34/26
1896: 51/45
1900: 51/42
1904: 60/23/17
1908: 54/32/15
1912: 1/39/60
1916: 57/35
1920: 72/20
1924: 67/9/24
1928: 79/20
1932: 46/48
1936: 43/55
1940: 55/43
1944: 57/42
1948: 61/36
1952: 70/29
1956: 67/32
1960: 61/39
1964: 56/44
1968: 63/30
1972: 69/27
1976: 62/35
1980: 68/23
1984: 75/24
1988: 68/31
1992: 44/32/25
1996: 52/38/10
2000: 56/40
2004: 60/39
2008: 50/48
2012: 52/46
2016: 42/51
2020: 44/53

Suburban county in Kansas
          R:           D:
1876: 41/58
1880: 43/52
1884: 42/54
1888: 42/55
1892: 43/52
1896:  33/63
1900:  46/51
1904: 50/43
1908: 34/54/9 (Socialist)
1912: 21/42/26 (Progressive)/10 (Socialist)
1916: 36/59
1920: 39/55
1924: 40/44/14 (Progressive)
1928: 61/37
1932: 3/93
1936: 25/74
1940: 30/68
1944: 40/59
1948: 49/50
1952: 51/47
1956: 50/49
1960: 55/43
1964: 25/74
1968: 59/21/16 (American Independent)
1972: 77/21
1976: 52/43
1980: 56/36/5 (Anderson)
1984: 65/34
1988: 57/40
1992: 41/51/7 (Perot)
1996: 49/48
2000: 58/36
2004: 59/39
2008: 50/47
2012: 52/46
2016: 62/36
2020: 62/36 
Mostly WWC area in Appalachia

D/R/3rd Party

1880: 77/22
1884: 76/24
1888: 74/25
1892: 74/25
1896: 63/32
1900: 68/28
1904: 62/35
1908: 65/32
1912: 68/12/21
1916: 69/30
1920: 50/48
1924: 50/44
1928: 30/69
1932: 57/42
1936: 58/41
1940: 53/47
1944: 47/53
1948: 47/53
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/64
1960: 36/64
1964: 62/37
1968: 39/53
1972: 30/68
1976: 47/51
1980: 34/55/11
1984: 34/66
1988: 36/63
1992: 36/39/25
1996: 42/44/13
2000: 47/50
2004: 49.6/49.7
2008: 57/41
2012: 56/43
2016: 49/48
2020: 52/46
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Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
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« Reply #37 on: April 20, 2022, 12:02:26 AM »



D/R/3rd Party

1880: 77/22
1884: 76/24
1888: 74/25
1892: 74/25
1896: 63/32
1900: 68/28
1904: 62/35
1908: 65/32
1912: 68/12/21
1916: 69/30
1920: 50/48
1924: 50/44
1928: 30/69
1932: 57/42
1936: 58/41
1940: 53/47
1944: 47/53
1948: 47/53
1952: 38/62
1956: 35/64
1960: 36/64
1964: 62/37
1968: 39/53
1972: 30/68
1976: 47/51
1980: 34/55/11
1984: 34/66
1988: 36/63
1992: 36/39/25
1996: 42/44/13
2000: 47/50
2004: 49.6/49.7
2008: 57/41
2012: 56/43
2016: 49/48
2020: 52/46

[/quote]

Southern suburban county with a decent black population:

           D:     R:     
1876:   45    54
1880:   45    54
1884:   46    53
1888:   47    52
1892:   43    50  (Populist: 6%)
1896:   28    71     
1900:   41    58
1904:   40    59
1908:    41   58
1912:    39   38   (Progressive: 22%)
1916:    50   48
1920:    41   58
1924:    39   57
1928:    49  49.7
1932:     53   45
1936:     60   37
1940:     60   39
1944:     58   40
1948:     64    33
1952:     51    48
1956:     42    58
1960:     57    42
1964:     67    32
1968:     49   44  (Wallace: 5%)
1972:     36    62
1976:      49   48
1980:      34    59 (Anderson: 5%)
1984:      29    70
1988:      37    61
1992:      34    37  (Perot: 27%) 
1996:      47    39  (Perot: 12%)
2000:      45    50
2004:      45    53
2008:      45   53
2012:      42   55
2016:      39   57
2020:      43   54
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Liminal Trans Girl
Lawer
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« Reply #38 on: April 21, 2022, 10:20:26 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2022, 10:44:05 AM by Lawer »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #39 on: April 21, 2022, 11:16:02 AM »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #40 on: April 21, 2022, 07:58:59 PM »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #41 on: April 21, 2022, 08:22:49 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2022, 08:29:02 PM by CentristRepublican »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61

Majority-Hispanic county whose Hispanic population just keeps growing.

Also, I'm impressed - you got it exactly right! The county was Greenlee County, AZ.

This next one's fictional.
2020: Biden+6.3
2016: Clinton+11.3
2012: Obama+2.4
2008: Obama+0.15
2004: Bush+6.7
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Dole+6.6 (Perot garnered 4.3%)
1992: Bush+9.0 (Perot garnered 8.1%)
1988: Bush+33.3
1984: Reagan+45.8
1980: Reagan+44.9
1976: Ford+30.0
1972: Nixon+55.0
1968: Nixon+26.6 (Wallace garnered 14.6%)
1964: Goldwater+0.02
1960: Nixon+17.7
1956: Eisenhower+45.0
1952: Eisenhower+44.3

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« Reply #42 on: April 21, 2022, 10:53:45 PM »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61

Majority-Hispanic county whose Hispanic population just keeps growing.

Also, I'm impressed - you got it exactly right! The county was Greenlee County, AZ.

This next one's fictional.
2020: Biden+6.3
2016: Clinton+11.3
2012: Obama+2.4
2008: Obama+0.15
2004: Bush+6.7
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Dole+6.6 (Perot garnered 4.3%)
1992: Bush+9.0 (Perot garnered 8.1%)
1988: Bush+33.3
1984: Reagan+45.8
1980: Reagan+44.9
1976: Ford+30.0
1972: Nixon+55.0
1968: Nixon+26.6 (Wallace garnered 14.6%)
1964: Goldwater+0.02
1960: Nixon+17.7
1956: Eisenhower+45.0
1952: Eisenhower+44.3



Former rural Western county which became suburbanized during the '90s.
          D:    R:
1876   64    35
1880:  52    47
1884:  56    43
1888:  53    46
1892:  37    29  (34% Populist)
1896:  79    20
1900:  69    30
1904:  59    40
1908:  67    32
1912:  76    5  (19% Progressive)
1916:  73    26
1920:  71    28
1924:  73    25
1928:  45    54
1932:  87    12
1936:  93    6
1940:  77  22
1944:  74  25
1948:  71  12  (17% Thurmond)
1952:  63  36
1956:  60  39
1960:  65  34
1964:  62  37
1968:  30  23  (43% Wallace)
1972:  22  76
1976:  61  38
1980:  52  47
1984:  41  58
1988:  43  56
1992:  42  45  (11% Perot)
1996:  46.0 46.6 (6% Perot)
2000:  42   57
2004:  39  60
2008:  49.3 49.4
2012:  47   52
2016:  44    53
2020:  45    53
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #43 on: April 21, 2022, 10:56:10 PM »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61

Majority-Hispanic county whose Hispanic population just keeps growing.

Also, I'm impressed - you got it exactly right! The county was Greenlee County, AZ.

This next one's fictional.
2020: Biden+6.3
2016: Clinton+11.3
2012: Obama+2.4
2008: Obama+0.15
2004: Bush+6.7
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Dole+6.6 (Perot garnered 4.3%)
1992: Bush+9.0 (Perot garnered 8.1%)
1988: Bush+33.3
1984: Reagan+45.8
1980: Reagan+44.9
1976: Ford+30.0
1972: Nixon+55.0
1968: Nixon+26.6 (Wallace garnered 14.6%)
1964: Goldwater+0.02
1960: Nixon+17.7
1956: Eisenhower+45.0
1952: Eisenhower+44.3



Former rural Western county which became suburbanized during the '90s.

How do you explain the large rightward trend in 2020 though?
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Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,493
United States
Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -2.26

P P P

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« Reply #44 on: April 21, 2022, 10:57:59 PM »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61

Majority-Hispanic county whose Hispanic population just keeps growing.

Also, I'm impressed - you got it exactly right! The county was Greenlee County, AZ.

This next one's fictional.
2020: Biden+6.3
2016: Clinton+11.3
2012: Obama+2.4
2008: Obama+0.15
2004: Bush+6.7
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Dole+6.6 (Perot garnered 4.3%)
1992: Bush+9.0 (Perot garnered 8.1%)
1988: Bush+33.3
1984: Reagan+45.8
1980: Reagan+44.9
1976: Ford+30.0
1972: Nixon+55.0
1968: Nixon+26.6 (Wallace garnered 14.6%)
1964: Goldwater+0.02
1960: Nixon+17.7
1956: Eisenhower+45.0
1952: Eisenhower+44.3



Former rural Western county which became suburbanized during the '90s.

How do you explain the large rightward trend in 2020 though?

Nevada trended right as a whole mostly due to Clark County but Trump managed to flip at least one county in Colorado.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #45 on: April 21, 2022, 11:09:48 PM »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61

Majority-Hispanic county whose Hispanic population just keeps growing.

Also, I'm impressed - you got it exactly right! The county was Greenlee County, AZ.

This next one's fictional.
2020: Biden+6.3
2016: Clinton+11.3
2012: Obama+2.4
2008: Obama+0.15
2004: Bush+6.7
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Dole+6.6 (Perot garnered 4.3%)
1992: Bush+9.0 (Perot garnered 8.1%)
1988: Bush+33.3
1984: Reagan+45.8
1980: Reagan+44.9
1976: Ford+30.0
1972: Nixon+55.0
1968: Nixon+26.6 (Wallace garnered 14.6%)
1964: Goldwater+0.02
1960: Nixon+17.7
1956: Eisenhower+45.0
1952: Eisenhower+44.3



Former rural Western county which became suburbanized during the '90s.

How do you explain the large rightward trend in 2020 though?

Nevada trended right as a whole mostly due to Clark County but Trump managed to flip at least one county in Colorado.



Then maybe what you're saying is my county has an urban center but also some suburbs?

Also, the CO example is misleading - the Clinton-Trump county there was a rural Hispanic county (and nothing notable about rural, Hispanic counties flipping red in 2020 - there were also a lot in TX).
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Make America Grumpy Again
Christian Man
Junior Chimp
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United States
Political Matrix
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« Reply #46 on: May 15, 2022, 04:18:58 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2022, 09:41:13 PM by Blake Masters for Senate »

1992: 40 39 21
1996: 42 44 11 1
2000: 47 46 7
2004: 49 48 3
2008: 53 45 2
2012: 51 48 1
2016: 48 41 5  3 1
2020: 55 42 3

Southern majority-white county with a high black population.

Mine is actually a real county. Try to identify what region of the country it is in (or even which state).

2020: 66-32% R
2016: 57-33% R
2012: 53-44% R
2008: 59-40% R
2004: 62-37% R
2000: 55-41% R
1996: 52-34% D
1992: 42.5-36% D
1988: 52.5-46% D
1984: 52-48% D
1980: 54-41% D
1976: 61-36% D
1972: 52-46% D
1968: 65-27% D
1964: 74-26.5% D
1960: 70-30% D
1956: 60-40% D
1952: 69-31% D

CR's county is in rural Arizona, and ChristianMan's county is a mostly WWC county in Northern Appalachia

R/D/3rd Party

1908: 48/35/17 (mostly Socialist and Prohibition)
1912: 0/39/61 (Progressive)
1916: 41/49
1920: 65/28
1924: 68/32
1928: 68/31
1932: 29/67
1936: 38/61
1940: 47/53
1944: 54/46
1948: 53/45
1952: 62/37
1956: 56/44
1960: 54/46
1964: 48/52
1968: 53/37
1972: 62/35
1976: 50/48
1980: 56/37
1984: 62/37
1988: 55/44
1992: 39/44/18 (Mostly Reform)
1996: 37/55
2000: 43/54
2004: 46/52
2008: 36/62
2012: 33/65
2016: 26/68
2020: 37/61

Majority-Hispanic county whose Hispanic population just keeps growing.

Also, I'm impressed - you got it exactly right! The county was Greenlee County, AZ.

This next one's fictional.
2020: Biden+6.3
2016: Clinton+11.3
2012: Obama+2.4
2008: Obama+0.15
2004: Bush+6.7
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Dole+6.6 (Perot garnered 4.3%)
1992: Bush+9.0 (Perot garnered 8.1%)
1988: Bush+33.3
1984: Reagan+45.8
1980: Reagan+44.9
1976: Ford+30.0
1972: Nixon+55.0
1968: Nixon+26.6 (Wallace garnered 14.6%)
1964: Goldwater+0.02
1960: Nixon+17.7
1956: Eisenhower+45.0
1952: Eisenhower+44.3



Former rural Western county which became suburbanized during the '90s.

How do you explain the large rightward trend in 2020 though?

Nevada trended right as a whole mostly due to Clark County but Trump managed to flip at least one county in Colorado.



Then maybe what you're saying is my county has an urban center but also some suburbs?

Also, the CO example is misleading - the Clinton-Trump county there was a rural Hispanic county (and nothing notable about rural, Hispanic counties flipping red in 2020 - there were also a lot in TX).

New County:         D:           R:

1876:                   46           53
1880:                   43           54
1884:                   46          53
1888:                   39          56
1892:                   41          53  
1896:                   35          63
1900:                   34          64
1904:                   31         69   
1908:                   30         68
1912:                   33         23    40(Roosevelt)
1916:                   36         62
1920:                   25         74
1924:                   24         70
1928:                   23         76
1932:                   43         56
1936:                   47         49
1940:                   47         52
1944:                   39         60
1948:                   39         58
1952:                   35         62
1956:                   29         67
1960:                   29         67
1964:                   45         54
1968:                   35         46    18 (American Independent)
1972:                   34         63
1976:                   60          36
1980:                   55         42
1984:                   55         43
1988:                   55         42
1992:                   62         30    8 (Perot)
1996:                   63         29    6 (Perot)
2000:                   62         36
2004:                   57         42
2008:                   53        43
2012:                   52        46
2016:                   39        56
2020:                   38        58
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #47 on: June 22, 2022, 01:15:08 PM »

Definitely giving NE Ohio.

D-R-I

1960: 45-53
1964: 63-32
1968: 49-42-8
1972: 42-57
1976: 56-43
1980: 50-47-2
1984: 46-52
1988: 54-44
1992: 53-42-4
1996: 56-42
2000: 59-39
2004: 57-36
2008: 63-34
2012: 59-35
2016: 51-41-8
2020: 53-44
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #48 on: June 28, 2022, 11:54:06 PM »

Definitely giving NE Ohio.

D-R-I

1960: 45-53
1964: 63-32
1968: 49-42-8
1972: 42-57
1976: 56-43
1980: 50-47-2
1984: 46-52
1988: 54-44
1992: 53-42-4
1996: 56-42
2000: 59-39
2004: 57-36
2008: 63-34
2012: 59-35
2016: 51-41-8
2020: 53-44
Upper Midwest County home to a midsized city

R/D/I

1952: 49/51
1956: 52/48
1960: 49/51
1964: 33/66
1968: 55/41
1972: 66/32
1976: 64/35
1980: 58/25/17
1984: 70/29
1988: 65/32
1992: 41/37/23
1996: 50/40/10
2000: 55/41
2004: 52/46
2008: 46/53
2012: 45/49/6
2016: 31/51/18
2020: 35/61
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #49 on: December 25, 2022, 11:49:48 PM »

Definitely giving NE Ohio.

D-R-I

1960: 45-53
1964: 63-32
1968: 49-42-8
1972: 42-57
1976: 56-43
1980: 50-47-2
1984: 46-52
1988: 54-44
1992: 53-42-4
1996: 56-42
2000: 59-39
2004: 57-36
2008: 63-34
2012: 59-35
2016: 51-41-8
2020: 53-44
Upper Midwest County home to a midsized city

R/D/I

1952: 49/51
1956: 52/48
1960: 49/51
1964: 33/66
1968: 55/41
1972: 66/32
1976: 64/35
1980: 58/25/17
1984: 70/29
1988: 65/32
1992: 41/37/23
1996: 50/40/10
2000: 55/41
2004: 52/46
2008: 46/53
2012: 45/49/6
2016: 31/51/18
2020: 35/61

A county in Utah that was relatively rural in the late 20th century, but developed into a 'resort' county after the Cold War, and is now dominated by its 'resort' communities. (Along the lines of a more Mormon version of Teton County, WY)

R/D/I

1948 - 44/55
1952 - 54/46
1956 - 55/45
1960 - 46/54
1964 - 35/65
1968 - 41/47/12
1972 - 57/41
1976 - 45/52
1980 - 55/35/10
1984 - 57/42
1988 - 51/47
1992 - 32/42/26
1996 - 36/50/14
2000 - 44/52
2004 - 45/54
2008 - 40/58
2012 - 42/56
2016 - 45/50
2020 - 47/51
Largely blue collar county in the Northwest

R/D/3rd

1912: 10/14/46
1916: 39/57
1920: 54/46
1924: 41/38/22
1928: 53/47
1932: 24/75
1936: 25/72
1940: 31/69
1944: 39/61
1948: 38/61
1952: 52/48
1956: 53/47
1960: 47/53
1964: 41/59
1968: 42/46/12
1972: 60/36
1976: 45/51
1980: 52/40
1984: 57/42
1988: 51/47
1992: 32/42/26
1996: 35/53/12
2000: 49/48
2004: 57/42
2008: 56/42
2012: 57/41
2016: 56/37
2020: 58/40
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