Worse. Public opinion on Iraq was beginning to stagnate, but post-9/11 jingoism was strong.
Also, social conservatives enjoying their post-9/11 mandate would tear him apart for being so tabloidy. Inb4 some Democrat hack comes in with "muh protectionism = Ohio", the economy hadn't declined to a point where that would net enough voters to bridge the gap given that he would already be losing OTL Kerry voters for the above reasons.
President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✓
Businessman Donald Trump (D-NY) / Senator Bob Graham (D-FL)