How can we best undermine dictatorships?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

If the alternative is their replacement with failed states, oligarchies, or semi-permanent occupations, then I'm not sure it's a worthwhile goal.

The "color revolution" phenomenon had to be short-lived, as its pacing ensured that autocratic governments had numerous chances to learn from their colleagues' mistakes. "Civil society" promotion appears to be a flimsy and easily-countered policy. Meanwhile, the old theory of economic liberalization as a prerequisite for both economic growth and democratization appears to have been undermined in multiple ways by China. Not only does it appear seemingly disproven, but China's current economic policies seem to geared to maintain, rather than move past, China's current place in the global supply chain. Given China's economic size, the potential consequence of this orientation is that other countries may not have the chance to make further economic or political jumps.

The likeliest effective long-term plays would be to reinforce global economic supremacy by democracies (which would be difficult, potentially bloody, and has bad optics vis-a-vis the narrative of imperialism), and to make fossil fuels held in the Middle East and Eurasia obsolete through the development of alternative energy. The latter would both undermine non-democratic governments at home while deflating their foreign policy potential.

Given recent events, it appears that the importance of primary producers (of, say, sources of energy like petroleum and LNG) has been reinforced, rather than weakened. This is bad news for the would-be democrats of post-communist Eurasia and the Greater Middle East, and for the democracies of Western and Central Europe. On the upside, the United States has a new advantage in this area, and this schema subjects China to potential constraints.

Two other important factors to discuss are (1) the apparent de-democratization of parts of the allegedly free world; and (2) the apparent performance failures of leading nations on topics linked to COVID-19. Put bluntly, as the West declines in influence and importance, an "Indian model" would be a hard sell to the developing world even without China as a potential point of comparison.