MI - Blueprint Polling - Whitmer and Craig tied

[SnowLabrador]

Source: https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BPP-Michigan-Survey.pdf

Lean R at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's tied it's a Tossup not Tilt R do you have optimism

[Schiff for Senate]

It's tied it's a Tossup not Tilt R do you have optimism

I agree, MI GOV is really a tossup, or perhaps even tilt D.

[SnowLabrador]

It's tied it's a Tossup not Tilt R do you have optimism

I agree, MI GOV is really a tossup, or perhaps even tilt D.

Polling in Michigan underestimates Republicans. I use the Iowa rule, which is to assume that most undecideds are Republican.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's tied it's a Tossup not Tilt R do you have optimism

I agree, MI GOV is really a tossup, or perhaps even tilt D.

Polling in Michigan underestimates Republicans. I use the Iowa rule, which is to assume that most undecideds are Republican.

Other polls have Whitmer up by a good amount: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=480179.0 , https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=478165.0. The consensus in polling appears to be that Whitmer has an advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's tied it's a Tossup not Tilt R do you have optimism

Yeah it underpolled Gary Peters and he actually won

I agree, MI GOV is really a tossup, or perhaps even tilt D.

Polling in Michigan underestimates Republicans. I use the Iowa rule, which is to assume that most undecideds are Republican.

[DS0816]

Pennsylvania and Michigan are the most ripe Top 10 populous states to flip from the Democratic to the Republican column, for U.S. Governors, with the midterm elections of 2022.

Heading into the elections, Democrats have 6 while Republicans have 4 of the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states’s governorships. Likely the 2022 Republicans will flip on that level for majority of the Top 10.

It will not surprise me if former Detroit police chief James Craig ends up the 2022 Republican nominee who, in the general election, unseats  Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer—in a Republican pickup—to become the 50th Governor of Michigan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna hold MI, WI and PA

[DS0816]

D's are gonna hold MI, WI and PA

Ds will lose—and Rs will flip—all three.

[beesley]

To be fair, it does seem a substantial amount of the undecideds aren't Republicans. Most of the Lean R rather than Tilt R or Tossup takes seem to be eisegesis, even if I expect an R win to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't losing MI, PA and WI in 4 percent unemployment

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Whitmer will lose for reasons that have relatively little to do with the national mood.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer will lose for reasons that have relatively little to do with the national mood.

LoL it's 4 percent unemployment do you honestly niece the polls and it's 4 PERCEN unemployment, these same polls grossly underestimated Trump in 202o when unemployment was falling from 9 percent, don't believe everything a poll releases D's are out polling Biden I'm every race in his supposedly 39 percent Approvals

It's Feb not November too


The Dooming on this site is ridiculous, go to Dailykos and doom on that website they don't tolerate it

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Whitmer will lose for reasons that have relatively little to do with the national mood.

LoL it's 4 percent unemployment do you honestly niece the polls and it's 4 PERCEN unemployment, these same polls grossly underestimated Trump in 202o when unemployment was falling from 9 percent, don't believe everything a poll releases D's are out polling Biden I'm every race in his supposedly 39 percent Approvals

It's Feb not November too


The Dooming on this site is ridiculous, go to Dailykos and doom on that website they don't tolerate it

I got a response from the legend!

But no, Whitmer will lose because she became the face of endless Covid lockdowns, right up to threatening to extend them because of protests against them. It cost Murphy and it'll cost her, but she doesn't have the votes to spare.

[Chips]

Prediction: This will be one of if not the most expensive races for governor this year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prediction: This will be one of if not the most expensive races for governor this year.

It'll be among the most expensive for sure.
Florida and Texas will probably outstrip it though.

[Hollywood]

Whitmer will lose for reasons that have relatively little to do with the national mood.

LoL it's 4 percent unemployment do you honestly niece the polls and it's 4 PERCEN unemployment, these same polls grossly underestimated Trump in 202o when unemployment was falling from 9 percent, don't believe everything a poll releases D's are out polling Biden I'm every race in his supposedly 39 percent Approvals

It's Feb not November too


The Dooming on this site is ridiculous, go to Dailykos and doom on that website they don't tolerate it

I got a response from the legend!

But no, Whitmer will lose because she became the face of endless Covid lockdowns, right up to threatening to extend them because of protests against them. It cost Murphy and it'll cost her, but she doesn't have the votes to spare.

The other issue that really surprised Democrats in NJ was the number of Independents that based their vote the Covid-19 Nursing Home Scandal and Cover-up that took out Cuomo.  Michigan is another one of those states where the Republicans will take advantage of her role in that debacle.  The only thing that saved Murphy was the number of people that approved the more extreme and non-sensical Covid-19 restrictions at the national and state level.  This is no longer the case per the numbers showing Biden upside down by like 10-15 points. 

The poll in MI is highly favorable to Democrats cause they heavily weight the age group in which the D's do best while eliminating numbers from the group Republicans do best.  They're predicting worse conditions for Republicans than 2016, and had 2% of voters who were non-binary.  This is essentially a D+6 presented as a D+4.5.  This like VA and NJ polls all over again.  The extrapolated I vote is 55-45 based on turnout, but these are mostly regretful Biden Voters. 

This Race is basically Craig up by 49-45, which extrapolates to 52 to 48.  There's even leftover Trump voters that will probably make it out on election day. 

[Thunder98]

This thread aged really well....

Not only Whitmer won re-election, she actually outperformed her 2018 margins and got a double digit victory! Not to mention the whole GOP Primary sig fiasco with Craig any others being disqualified from the ballot and instead Dixon was the nominee instead.

[wbrocks67]

D's are gonna hold MI, WI and PA

Ds will lose—and Rs will flip—all three.

bloop!