I've published a very long preview post on Medium, which I still feel is incomplete and inadequate. But you have my eternal gratitude if you bother reading all of it: https://medium.com/colombian-politics-and-elections/2022-colombian-election-digest-iv-election-preview-6312e13e5fc. I will, however, post a shorter summary of my disjointed thoughts here a bit later today.
Here are some of the ballot papers:
[snip]
For the first time, the 'ethnic' constituencies are not on the same ballot (same for the House), so this should hopefully reduce the number of invalid votes by quite a bit (will also be interesting to see how many people vote in the ethnic constituencies now that you need to ask for it).
I've read it all. I'd like to thank you for keeping us abreast of Colombian political developments and would like to express gratitude for your sharing insights with us.
One thing I'd like to ask is, what is the overall chance of Petro being elected at this precise moment in time? Percentage terms, best guess?
