Biden vs Trump 1952
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  Biden vs Trump 1952
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Asenath Waite
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« on: February 08, 2022, 01:30:59 PM »

Presume the same circumstances as OTL 1952 but in a world in which Biden and Trump are the same age they were in 2020 with a life as roughly close as possible to their modern day versions. What does the electoral map look like? Who are their running mates?
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2022, 11:08:50 PM »




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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2022, 11:30:07 PM »

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2022, 10:24:01 AM »

A Dem candidate would have had an uphill battle in 1952. There were just too many fundamentals making a win pretty unlikely. Nixon is still a good VP for Trump: congressional experience, assures the GOP establishment and his much younger, assuming Trump is still over 70.



✓ Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA): 323 EVs.; 52.3%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)/Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL): 208 EVs.; 45.9%
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2022, 04:43:52 PM »

Trump would be an interesting candidate in this world. I see him as a dissident anti-eastern establishment New Yorker that would be aligned with the Taftites on foreign policy but domestically more moderate and committed to preserving New Deal programs. He also might have a shot at narrowly winning the black vote. A Biden that was a border state Democrat that had served in the senate since 1910 would probably have a far longer record of being chummy with the Dixiecrats then our Biden.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2022, 10:20:29 PM »

So Trump was elected in 1948? Korea probably still happens. A Biden who's been in government since around 1910 would have to be a segregationist, and for parallelism maybe one of Roosevelt's vice presidents before Truman, so I'm guessing his running mate would have to be a liberal not-Southerner. The 1950s electorate would respond much more negatively to Trump and positively to Status Quo Joe.


President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Charles Halleck (R-IN)
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Warren Magnuson (D-WA) ✓
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« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2022, 01:03:36 AM »

Okay, so we have:
1. Former Vice President Joe Biden, born 1874 in Pennsylvania, presumably to a father who fought in the Union Army (almost certainly from a Unionist family, at the least). Elected as a Senator for the border state of Delaware in 1904, where he serves until 1940, when he’s selected as Vice President (presumably replacing Wallace in OTL). He’s a bit younger than Garner, and so maybe the story here is that Roosevelt was pressure to pick an experienced moderate (Biden is in fact the Dean of the Senate, and has been for 8 years). Biden is still Catholic here, which is more of an issue than it would be in 2008, but Roosevelt was popular enough that it shouldn’t be a huge issue. I suppose the story is that Roosevelt drops him for Truman in 1944, dies, and then Truman loses to Trump in 1948, inspiring Biden to make a comeback run in 1952.

2. President Donald Trump, born in 1878 in New York, to a Scottish mother and a father of German descent who became a wealthy businessman. He’s a Wilkie-esque figure, a political commentator who briefly attempted a third party run in 1932, and who then wins in 1948, presumably beating out Dewey (who has the stench of defeat in 1944) at the convention.

What do they believe? Well, obviously not their current beliefs, given the context of the 1950s, but we can attempt to translate them. Biden spent several decades as the Senator from a state with Jim Crow laws, but he’s a Catholic from a Unionist family. Presumably he’s a moderate on racial issues by 1950s standards, with no real record of pro civil rights or segregationist rhetoric. From Biden’s general affect, he’s a labor Democrat, a staunch New Dealer, almost certainly close with union leaders. In terms of foreign policy, he’s well experienced and perhaps mildly isolationist. Then as now, Biden is a weathervane with an uncanny ability to find the middle of the party and stick to it.

Trump is a wealthy New York City businessman, and probably fairly irreligious. With regard to race relations, you’d expect him to be somewhere around Biden, and certainly the black neighborhoods of Northern states would see some campaigning. He’s not pro-union or anything, but Trump’s rise in the Republican Party was focused on accommodating the welfare state, so here he’s presumably a me-too Republican who is fine with the New Deal. On foreign policy, though, he’s more on the paleocon side, generally suspicious of international institutions and interventions. Trump’s immigration hawkishness, translated into the context of the 1950s, almost certainly means a strong suspicion of Catholic immigration, which is probably a major issue.

You’d see a campaign somewhat resembling 1928, with a northern Republican who was fairly fine with social welfare programs using anti-Papism as a pitch to southern voters who were leery of a Catholic Democrat, but 1952 has a lot of good Democratic years for voters to remember, and in 1952 Trump would have a rather lackluster economic record to run on, so you’d expect something fairly close. In terms of foreign policy, you'd expect that Biden would try to run towards the internationalist vote, and accuse Trump of being soft on communism by dint of not wanting a major American military presence abroad.  

Here, I have Biden narrowly winning by dint of sweeping the South (with reduced margins in many places, but managing to win every state), and New England, where Trump’s isolationism and Biden’s Catholic roots helped him win over the nation. The west and the Midwest, which are generally Protestant and isolationist, remain in Trump’s corner, helping him keep fairly close to Biden.


(Incidentally, Joseph was a popular name in 1880, but Donald was fairly unpopular then, and only really became en vogue in the 1930s, so perhaps it should be something more like Walter Trump)
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Chips
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« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2022, 03:29:19 AM »

306-225!

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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2022, 05:30:20 PM »

Okay, so we have:
1. Former Vice President Joe Biden, born 1874 in Pennsylvania, presumably to a father who fought in the Union Army (almost certainly from a Unionist family, at the least). Elected as a Senator for the border state of Delaware in 1904, where he serves until 1940, when he’s selected as Vice President (presumably replacing Wallace in OTL). He’s a bit younger than Garner, and so maybe the story here is that Roosevelt was pressure to pick an experienced moderate (Biden is in fact the Dean of the Senate, and has been for 8 years). Biden is still Catholic here, which is more of an issue than it would be in 2008, but Roosevelt was popular enough that it shouldn’t be a huge issue. I suppose the story is that Roosevelt drops him for Truman in 1944, dies, and then Truman loses to Trump in 1948, inspiring Biden to make a comeback run in 1952.

2. President Donald Trump, born in 1878 in New York, to a Scottish mother and a father of German descent who became a wealthy businessman. He’s a Wilkie-esque figure, a political commentator who briefly attempted a third party run in 1932, and who then wins in 1948, presumably beating out Dewey (who has the stench of defeat in 1944) at the convention.

What do they believe? Well, obviously not their current beliefs, given the context of the 1950s, but we can attempt to translate them. Biden spent several decades as the Senator from a state with Jim Crow laws, but he’s a Catholic from a Unionist family. Presumably he’s a moderate on racial issues by 1950s standards, with no real record of pro civil rights or segregationist rhetoric. From Biden’s general affect, he’s a labor Democrat, a staunch New Dealer, almost certainly close with union leaders. In terms of foreign policy, he’s well experienced and perhaps mildly isolationist. Then as now, Biden is a weathervane with an uncanny ability to find the middle of the party and stick to it.

Trump is a wealthy New York City businessman, and probably fairly irreligious. With regard to race relations, you’d expect him to be somewhere around Biden, and certainly the black neighborhoods of Northern states would see some campaigning. He’s not pro-union or anything, but Trump’s rise in the Republican Party was focused on accommodating the welfare state, so here he’s presumably a me-too Republican who is fine with the New Deal. On foreign policy, though, he’s more on the paleocon side, generally suspicious of international institutions and interventions. Trump’s immigration hawkishness, translated into the context of the 1950s, almost certainly means a strong suspicion of Catholic immigration, which is probably a major issue.

You’d see a campaign somewhat resembling 1928, with a northern Republican who was fairly fine with social welfare programs using anti-Papism as a pitch to southern voters who were leery of a Catholic Democrat, but 1952 has a lot of good Democratic years for voters to remember, and in 1952 Trump would have a rather lackluster economic record to run on, so you’d expect something fairly close. In terms of foreign policy, you'd expect that Biden would try to run towards the internationalist vote, and accuse Trump of being soft on communism by dint of not wanting a major American military presence abroad.  

Here, I have Biden narrowly winning by dint of sweeping the South (with reduced margins in many places, but managing to win every state), and New England, where Trump’s isolationism and Biden’s Catholic roots helped him win over the nation. The west and the Midwest, which are generally Protestant and isolationist, remain in Trump’s corner, helping him keep fairly close to Biden.


(Incidentally, Joseph was a popular name in 1880, but Donald was fairly unpopular then, and only really became en vogue in the 1930s, so perhaps it should be something more like Walter Trump)


I love this, everything including Walter Trump. I'd love to see this turned into a full-fledged timeline.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2022, 09:32:49 AM »

306-225!



I don't think Biden would carry NY in this scenario, as it's Trump's homestate. Remember that even Truman didn't win it in 1948, and FDR just narrowly did so in 1940 and 1944.

This is a more plausible 306 map, imho:

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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2022, 12:35:51 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2022, 12:41:09 PM by bagelman »

This is a fusion of 1952 and 2020, taking place in 1952 with 2020's candidates



Incumbent president is Harry Truman.

Trump appeals to the midwest and south at the expense of the northeastern Yankee vote, losing his home state but winning the election. He is impeached in 1954. Republicans hold the White House in 1956 after essentially admitting that Trump was a mistake, not really possible today. Democrats nominated a southerner that year and everything appears to return to normal for the time.

Biden's VP nominee is of course not Kamala Harris, but Trump's VP is Mike Pence who serves as President.

A true fusion of 1952 and 2020 would take place in one of 1984, 1986, or 1988. In that timeline Trump is running for reelection and the nation is conservative enough to reelect him.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2022, 06:18:55 AM »

Okay, so we have:
1. Former Vice President Joe Biden, born 1874 in Pennsylvania, presumably to a father who fought in the Union Army (almost certainly from a Unionist family, at the least). Elected as a Senator for the border state of Delaware in 1904, where he serves until 1940, when he’s selected as Vice President (presumably replacing Wallace in OTL). He’s a bit younger than Garner, and so maybe the story here is that Roosevelt was pressure to pick an experienced moderate (Biden is in fact the Dean of the Senate, and has been for 8 years). Biden is still Catholic here, which is more of an issue than it would be in 2008, but Roosevelt was popular enough that it shouldn’t be a huge issue. I suppose the story is that Roosevelt drops him for Truman in 1944, dies, and then Truman loses to Trump in 1948, inspiring Biden to make a comeback run in 1952.

2. President Donald Trump, born in 1878 in New York, to a Scottish mother and a father of German descent who became a wealthy businessman. He’s a Wilkie-esque figure, a political commentator who briefly attempted a third party run in 1932, and who then wins in 1948, presumably beating out Dewey (who has the stench of defeat in 1944) at the convention.

What do they believe? Well, obviously not their current beliefs, given the context of the 1950s, but we can attempt to translate them. Biden spent several decades as the Senator from a state with Jim Crow laws, but he’s a Catholic from a Unionist family. Presumably he’s a moderate on racial issues by 1950s standards, with no real record of pro civil rights or segregationist rhetoric. From Biden’s general affect, he’s a labor Democrat, a staunch New Dealer, almost certainly close with union leaders. In terms of foreign policy, he’s well experienced and perhaps mildly isolationist. Then as now, Biden is a weathervane with an uncanny ability to find the middle of the party and stick to it.

Trump is a wealthy New York City businessman, and probably fairly irreligious. With regard to race relations, you’d expect him to be somewhere around Biden, and certainly the black neighborhoods of Northern states would see some campaigning. He’s not pro-union or anything, but Trump’s rise in the Republican Party was focused on accommodating the welfare state, so here he’s presumably a me-too Republican who is fine with the New Deal. On foreign policy, though, he’s more on the paleocon side, generally suspicious of international institutions and interventions. Trump’s immigration hawkishness, translated into the context of the 1950s, almost certainly means a strong suspicion of Catholic immigration, which is probably a major issue.

You’d see a campaign somewhat resembling 1928, with a northern Republican who was fairly fine with social welfare programs using anti-Papism as a pitch to southern voters who were leery of a Catholic Democrat, but 1952 has a lot of good Democratic years for voters to remember, and in 1952 Trump would have a rather lackluster economic record to run on, so you’d expect something fairly close. In terms of foreign policy, you'd expect that Biden would try to run towards the internationalist vote, and accuse Trump of being soft on communism by dint of not wanting a major American military presence abroad.  

Here, I have Biden narrowly winning by dint of sweeping the South (with reduced margins in many places, but managing to win every state), and New England, where Trump’s isolationism and Biden’s Catholic roots helped him win over the nation. The west and the Midwest, which are generally Protestant and isolationist, remain in Trump’s corner, helping him keep fairly close to Biden.


(Incidentally, Joseph was a popular name in 1880, but Donald was fairly unpopular then, and only really became en vogue in the 1930s, so perhaps it should be something more like Walter Trump)


Just had a thought, maybe this version of Biden lost his wife and young daughter in a carriage accident in say 1910?
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Medal506
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2022, 07:11:35 PM »

So Trump would have been five years old and Biden would have been nine years old lol. I get that you said they’d be the same age though but still that’s a funny thought.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2022, 11:37:23 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2022, 11:42:20 PM by Alben Barkley »

306-225!



I don't think Biden would carry NY in this scenario, as it's Trump's homestate. Remember that even Truman didn't win it in 1948, and FDR just narrowly did so in 1940 and 1944.

This is a more plausible 306 map, imho:



The ONLY reason Truman narrowly lost New York in 1948 was Henry Wallace's campaign got over 8% of the vote there.

He came EXTREMELY close to beating Dewey in his own home state that year.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2022, 11:56:56 PM »

I wonder if Trump’s sex scandals and the Access Hollywood tape would have hurt him more in 1952.
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