2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

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Stephen Harper

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Anyone want to take bets on which washed up politician from 15 years ago that the media will talk up before they inevitably don't run? AKA the Jean Charest option

What's Bernard Lord up to these days?

Some people are asking Charest to run.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/conservatives-eye-charest-as-potential-leader-again-1.6342373

I don't know if Peter Mackay wants to try a second run. A potential candidate is Tasha Kheiriddin who is thinking about it.

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Maybe it's more people asking him to run and takes his time to give an answer because it could be his last chance to have a path to become Prime Minister. Poilievre probably has a big lead at the start. Charest's appeal could be he offers a better chance to get votes from moderates, centrists, disenchanted Liberals, more Quebec votes and he is a very good campaigner. But the conservative membership is probably not looking for that. It would be hard for him to win. He would need new members and it's probably easier to sell membership to people with a cause or ideology.

It seems there are at least 7 Quebec MPs willing to support Charest. So they are looking for someone other than Poilievre (maybe they will endorse him if he is the sure winner). Two Harper appointed Senators and organizers are supporting Poilievre.

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Maybe it's more people asking him to run and takes his time to give an answer because it could be his last chance to have a path to become Prime Minister. Poilievre probably has a big lead at the start. Charest's appeal could be he offers a better chance to get votes from moderates, centrists, disenchanted Liberals, more Quebec votes and he is a very good campaigner. But the conservative membership is probably not looking for that. It would be hard for him to win. He would need new members and it's probably easier to sell membership to people with a cause or ideology.

It seems there are at least 7 Quebec MPs willing to support Charest. So they are looking for someone other than Poilievre (maybe they will endorse him if he is the sure winner). Two Harper appointed Senators and organizers are supporting Poilievre.

That's the question though, who are these "disenchanted Liberals"? And why do we assume Charest would win them over?

I think the assumption is that this would be blue liberals, bay street boys, etc. This is not a huge portion of the Canadian population by any stretch, and the influence of those interests isn't what it used to be. The most effective model for a Conservative victory in the GTA in today's context is shown by Doug Ford - someone whose appeal is nothing like Charest's. The hypothesis that there is a mass of blue Liberals who like Liberal values but want less spending was tested in 2021, and it didn't work out too well for O'Toole.

In my experience, disenchantment among the Liberal base is coming from young people and people frustrated about covid measures - the venn diagram between those two has a lot of overlap. Between Jean Charest and Pierre Poilievre, the latter is an infinitely better choice to appeal to this group. Anyone in English Canada who is under 40 and not obsessed with politics has no idea who Jean Charest is, and Quebecers under 40 don't exactly tend to have the fondest memories of the guy.

Edit: To be clear, I don't think Poilievre is a silver bullet who would energize disenchanted voters into propelling the Tories back to power. Poilievre is an ideologue, and dogmatic conservatism isn't super popular in Canada these days. But the hypothesis that Jean Charest would chip off Liberal voters because he's fiscally conservative and culturally liberal assumes that there are lots of current Liberal voters looking for that, and I don't think that's the case. If I'm right, and frustration among the Liberal base is coming from young people who are losing faith in the political establishment, Charest seems like the exact opposite of what they would want.

There was a newspaper article suggesting a new party could be formed of conservatives more centrist and Liberals. I don't know how big blue Liberals represent. It could be people who would feel comfotrable with the old Progressive Conservative party who are now Liberals because they don't like the new Conservative party for its style or positions.

O'Toole seemed to do well until he was on the defensive on gun policy and vaccines. Someone like Charest could make it easier for voters looking for change but not extreme. But it probably wouldn't work if a big part of the party is not happy and shoot from the inside. Charest is good at campaign, good at debate and good at attacking opponents. Ontario is the most important and I admit I don't know what would work best there.

It's strange that so far only one person is running. I guess many putchists were ready with Poilievre. I don't know when the rules for the leadership will be announced, maybe others will declare interest then.

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A cap and trade system.

He opposed destroying the gun registry.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/quebec-premier-calls-end-of-gun-registry-unacceptable
The Quebec government went to court for the federal government to hand over the data but lost 5-4 at the Supreme Court (three Quebec judges in the minority).

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Maybe it's more people asking him to run and takes his time to give an answer because it could be his last chance to have a path to become Prime Minister. Poilievre probably has a big lead at the start. Charest's appeal could be he offers a better chance to get votes from moderates, centrists, disenchanted Liberals, more Quebec votes and he is a very good campaigner. But the conservative membership is probably not looking for that. It would be hard for him to win. He would need new members and it's probably easier to sell membership to people with a cause or ideology.

It seems there are at least 7 Quebec MPs willing to support Charest. So they are looking for someone other than Poilievre (maybe they will endorse him if he is the sure winner). Two Harper appointed Senators and organizers are supporting Poilievre.

Quebec politics bewilders me.

Most of the Quebec Tory caucus are CAQuists. I get why they wouldn't want Poillievre, but Charest as a PLQ Premier seems like a bad fit as well. Is it as simple as backing a fellow Quebecer or am I missing something else?

I think they see someone who is good at politics and can win (but maybe not the party leadership considering opinions of party members). They prefer a positioning more progressive conservative than prairie populist.

During Charest's time it was the mostly the ADQ, CAQ was created just before Charest's last election. Deltell and Rayes were in the ADQ. I imagine they have said things about Charest as opponents.

It seems there are many links of Quebec caucus with the Quebec Liberal Party and Charest. Dominique Vien was in Cabinet. Richard Lehoux was a PLQ candidate under Charest. I read today that Joël Godin and Luc Berthold were staff for PLQ Cabinet ministers.

Rayes is doing a media round promoting Charest. If a lot of members don't want Charest and some don't want Poilievre, maybe some other candidate could come as a party unifier.

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Maybe if they are socially progressive and prefer a bilingual leader the first option. If they vote strategically against the front runner, the second option.

La Presse writes Stephen Harper wants a real conservative leader and will use his influence to stop Charest of becoming leader. Charest is too much to centre, like his position when he was Premier on a price on carbon and opposition to scrapping the gun registry. Harper still remembers during the campaign in 2008 Charest spoke against cuts for culture and dismantling the gun registry.
 
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2022-02-23/possible-candidature-de-jean-charest/stephen-harper-veut-un-vrai-conservateur-a-la-tete-du-parti.php

I don't know if it will end up like last time and Charest doesn't run.

Former mayor of Trois-Rivières and two time CPC candidate Yves Lévesque support Poilievre. Lévesque wants to run again next time. He thinks Charest's past could hurt, the anticorruption investigation has not been closed yet after 10 years.

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While its tempting to see Brown as some sort of stalking horse for Charest - keep in mind that apparently if Brown runs he will position himself as an implacable opponent of Quebec's Bill 21 that attacks Muslims. Needless to Charest will take the exact opposite position on that issue.

I doubt Charest would be pro bill 21. He set up the Bouchard Taylor commission on reasonable accomodation which proposed banning wearing religious symbols for jobs representing coercitive authority like judges, police. He refused to act on this while there would have been a consensus for it, it was very limited.

Maybe he could take the position of being against it and will see what courts says about it. I don't remember what Charest said about the issue but his son said: individual freedoms are not a negotiable issue.

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A Léger poll  that is not great news for Charest if he wants to play the electabilty, winnability card.

With Charest as leader, voting intentions are:
LPC 33
CPC 28
NDP 20
BQ 8
PPC 7
Green 3

With Poilievre:

LPC 34
CPC 30
NDP 21
BQ 8
PPC 3
Green 3

With Charest PPC is up and CPC lower. It will be interesting to see regional numbers when the details are published.

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I could see a relatively low-profile Tory in a safe seat, like Joël Godin or Bernard Généreux being asked to do this, then Charest runs in a winnable non-Tory Quebec riding in the next election, like one of the Beauport ridings - although redistricting could affect which seat he picks.

Like MaxQue said, running in Sherbrooke as a Tory seems like a fool's errand. Charest would do better than any other Tory there, but it's still a big task to win a seat where they only got 1/8 of the vote in the most recent election. Compton-Stanstead (Sherbrooke suburbs and surrounding farmland) is a bit more winnable, but if I were him I'd stay on the safe side and stick to the Quebec City area.

Godin supports Charest. He sais his goal is to save the Conservative party, be united and stay progreesive conservative. He thinks Charest can unite the social right and progressive conservatives.  He will think of his political future if the party is not progressive conservative. He fears a split if another candidate is elected leader.

They need a compromise candidate because it seems many will be unhappy with Charest and could leave, while others fear the direction with Poilievre and could leave.

There are 6 Quebec MPs supporting Charest. One is neutral because of his role but Berthold has held many jobs with the provincial Liberals during Charest's time  that my guess is he would support him. People are loyal to Charest. There are three undeclared yet. If they want a better role if Poilievre wins, it might makes sense to support him.

The provincial Liberal members of the National Assembly will be allowed to support a candidate in the federal conservative race, and some are planning to help Charest, but other parties like CAQ and provincial Conservative plan to publicly stay out of it.

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Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris is supporting Jean Charest.

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A Charest win would cause revolt of the base. Charest needs new members to do well. Poilievre seems to be the party's choice, maybe a bit more libertarian but the party is the same, vulnerable about environment, gun control.

I'm intrigued of what the people who wanted to find a candidate as an alternative to Poilievre do if he wins. Do they stay or are really uncomfortable with Poilievre and leave.

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A Charest win would cause revolt of the base. Charest needs new members to do well. Poilievre seems to be the party's choice, maybe a bit more libertarian but the party is the same, vulnerable about environment, gun control.

I'm intrigued of what the people who wanted to find a candidate as an alternative to Poilievre do if he wins. Do they stay or are really uncomfortable with Poilievre and leave.

There's a reason that some moderate Conservatives have already begun to leave the CPC: they're already feeling drowned out, sick of the far-right being the loudest voice in the room, leaving them so desperate for a representation of their views that they miss the PCs... so you can see where there this may be headed: the party splitting again just like it did last time, along the extremist-right & center-right moderate lines, if only because it may inevitably have to since, if Poilievre wins, there'll presumably be an inevitable moment that serves as the straw that broke the back of a camel that's a tent that's somehow both too big as it currently stands yet is unable to appeal to a majority of the center.

I don't know if there can be a big split since the moderates seem to be in the minority. Charest said on tv the choice is doing US style politics, attack politics and division or doing politics like we have done in Canada. I don't know if he speaks for many who don't want to be part of that. I only remember MP Joel Godin state he would have to think of his future.

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I don't think that's a representative sample size though. Quebec in general is not a socon place at all (in the Anglo-American sense, of course they can be very socially conservative in other ways). Something like abortion though, not at all.

Media doesn't like pro-life. The Journal de Montréal on the front page put the pictures of 39 MPs who are against abortions, a third of the Conservative caucus.

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Pierre Poilievre has sold 311,958 memberships and numbers by province are:

NL 2,582
PEI 1,322
NS 6,411
NB 6,210
QC 25,453
ON 118,996
MB 12,363
SK15,333
AB 71,759
BC 50,709
Terr 818

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Brian Mulroney made a comment he doesn't recognize himself in the current Conservative party.

In the Léger poll of voting intentions, people who would vote Conservative 44% say Poilievre would make the best leader, 14% Charest, 4% Brown, 3% Lewis. Poilievre also is much prefered by PPC voters. Charest leads Poilievre with Liberals, NDP and Bloc voters.

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Pierre Poilievre and Leslyn Lewis have decided to skip the August 3rd debate. This is an official party debate not something organized by an outside group. I don't know if it's part of the libertarian trend, having a problem with authority.

I don't know what Alain Rayes will do after the leadership vote. He wrote an open letter. He speaks of the anger and hatred spread by Poilievre during the leadership campaign, his style of doing politics like in the US and his Trump like attitude. What is Rayes future? After a couple months say it's not as bad as what I expected because right now it looks like he doesn't want to be part of it.

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MP Joël Godin is contemplating four options if Poilievere is leader. Leave the MP office, join another party in parliament, sit as an independent or participate in the launch of a new party.
 
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2022-08-03/course-a-la-direction-conservatrice/reflexions-et-defections-a-prevoir-si-poilievre-l-emporte.php

He is disappointed in the last few months with the agressive leadership race and the vicious personal attacks.

Senator Jean-Guy Dagenais still has a membership but is considering ripping his card.

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To the extent that there is a walk-out of red tories and Quebec conservatives like Alain Rayes and Pierre Paul-hus, I'd be very disappointed, but I can't see an actual partisan split on the centre-right with Poilievre as leader, which is a bigger worry than some MPs simply leaving the caucus.

Pierre Paul-Hus supports Poilievre. I imagine that will get him an important role, Quebec lieutenant / spokesperson or major critic portfolio. He co-signed an open letter in support of Poilievre with Yves Lévesque (former candidate and mayor of Trois-Rivières) and two Senators.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2022/08/25/pierre-poilievre-le-leadership-dont-nous-avons-besoin

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News story says Poilievre will make Pierre Paul-Hus his Quebec political lieutenant.

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She was a provincial Liberal minister, so maybe like Charest she is considered a LIBERAL.

I don't know if the MPs who worked and had connections with the provincial Liberals took the "Liberal" attacks personally. Maybe they won't feel very welcomed.

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Skippy keeps talking about the "gatekeepers" as the new bogeyman we need to be worried about. Is this the Canadian version of draining the swamp?

Does he tranlsate gatekeepers in French? I'm not sure what it means, establishment, or elite?

I don't think I'm the target audience because gatekeepers and Laurentian elite are a bit foreign concepts.

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And now Poilievre is texting party members so they harass Rayes' staffers.

Someone from the Poilievre surroundings wants them to phone Rayes office and ask him to resign. Politics could become terrible (unless you like people screaming at each other). I'm not looking for more attacks, more name calling, more vengeance, more enemies.