2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly Candice Bergen's district (Portage-Lisgar, Manitoba) had the best showing for the PPC in the last election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portage%E2%80%94Lisgar

[King of Kensington]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs. 

[King of Kensington]

Perhaps he is hoping much like Thatcher in 1979, Mike Harris in 1995, there is a big enough backlash against big government people ready for radical change, but not sure that is the case.  Trudeau may be more left wing than past PMs, but I don't think he has gone so far left you are seeing a massive backlash, at least not amongst centrist voters.  Sure the right hates him far more than they hated Chretien or Martin, but the Conservatives have that group locked up anyways.

The LPC shift leftward under Trudeau has not at all hurt them with the professional class, as they've shifted leftward too both culturally and on economic issues. 

[King of Kensington]

B.C Liberal Premier Christy Clark patterned her government as an attempt to throwback to Social Credit.  She was primarily (or solely) concerned with natural gas development and more than infrequently invoked the Social Credit Premier from 1952-1972, WAC Bennett.  However, as has been discussed here before, the demographics of B.C are now heavily in favor of the urban areas, and her not only lack of interest in urban British Columbia, but her outright attempts to annoy urban British Columbians in order to, I guess, 'own the urbans' to curry favor with rural British Columbians, was not appreciated in the urban areas.

Most hilarious about that was that she (initially) represented the very urbane, culturally liberal "Brahmin" seat of Vancouver-Point Grey.  But she only took the seat by a hair in a 2011 by-election and then she lost it in the general election the Liberals won and she had to go to the interior to get a seat.  The 2013 election foreshadowed the breakdown of the old "free enterprise vs. socialists" polarization in BC.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting background on the Canadian Conservative movement:

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/under-the-big-tent-conservative-division-in-canada-1.6342930

[King of Kensington]

The conflation of Red Toryism with the urbane and business wing was later.  In the 1950s Diefenbaker the rural populist was to the left of the Bay Street establishment types (George Drew etc.)

It was under Diefenbaker as well that the Prairies became a Conservative stronghold.

[King of Kensington]

But the suburbs are kind of a weird mix, white suburbanites aren't as homogenous as they used to be (in the Harper years, there wasn't really a difference in how York and Halton voted), and non-white suburbs tend to be even harder to get a pulse on, like the suburban Chinese-Canadian vote which swung hard to the Liberals in 2021, after having voted Conservative in 2015 and 2019.

Heavily Chinese Markham and Richmond Hill swung away from the CPC, while heavily Italian Vaughan trended more blue.  Italians are fairly evenly split now it seems.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, whites in the eastern suburbs are mostly "non-ethnic" Anglo Canadians.  European ethnics have moved north and west.   The pattern was set decades ago.  In the pre-gentrified city of Toronto of 50 years ago the west end was working class ethnic, the east end was working class anglo. 

[King of Kensington]

Ajax in fact had the highest Liberal vote share in the 905 in the last two federal elections.

When Toronto became a "global city" starting in the 1970s Scarborough went from anglo working class to one of the most diverse places in the GTA.  And Ajax has become an eastern extension of eastern Scarborough with its large South Asian and Black populations.  

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals won Oakville by 7 points in 2019 and 6 points in the last election, not a dramatic difference.

The way the CPC is headed, I don't expect O'Toole's successor to be particularly establishmentarian or "Oakville-friendly."

[King of Kensington]

There was a newspaper article suggesting a new party could be formed of conservatives more centrist and Liberals. I don't know how big blue Liberals represent. It could be people who would feel comfotrable with the old Progressive Conservative party who are now Liberals because they don't like the new Conservative party for its style or positions.

Such a party would be lucky to have the success of the Progressive Conservatives under Jean Charest and Joe Clark.

[King of Kensington]

Sounds like Patrick Brown might be going for it.

https://twitter.com/ontarioisproud/status/1499121211279921159

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/now-is-the-wrong-time-patrick-brown-asks-freeland-to-hold-off-on-burden-of-carbon-tax-increase?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1646267280

[King of Kensington]

Or maybe what Charest means is that a national conservative party cannot keep writing off urban Canada. The vast majority of Canadians live in cities and right now the Tories have ZERO seats in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, almost nothing in Winnipeg, Ottawa, Hamilton, Halifax, are losing ground in Edmonton and have only a couple of very exurban seats on the fringes of the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver Areas. I can remember when the federal Tories were able to win seats in the middle of Toronto. maybe they need to figure out how to do that again.   

I grew up in St. Paul's where they elected a PC MP in the 1980s.  Since 1993 it's been a Liberal fortress and it's inconceivable to imagine them winning there now.  St. Paul's and University-Rosedale are pretty much the "Brahmin-liberal" capitals of Canada.

[King of Kensington]

Early polling suggests Skippy will get the crazies back into the Tory fold, but has no room to grow amongst blue Liberals. Charest's numbers among blue Liberals are slightly better, but not particularly encouraging.

Sounds about right.  He can pull back the PPC vote, but has no appeal to blue Liberals.  And map does not favor the "win back the PPC" strategy as it piles up the votes where not needed.

[King of Kensington]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

Yeah, he's one of the most insufferable people on Twitter.

[King of Kensington]

Calgary Conservatives are more similar to GTA Conservatives than rural Alberta Conservatives.

[King of Kensington]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

And he's of course predicting Pierre Poilievre - a similar personality type - leads the Conservatives to a majority in 2025.  Given that I detest PP's politics, the fact that Breguet is wrong about pretty much everything makes me feel reassured. 

[King of Kensington]

And chasing the PPC vote only enhances the problem of not winning where needed.

[King of Kensington]

So is Poilievre more of a Mike Harris (a good salesman at a time where right-wing messaging resonates) or Tim Hudak (someone who is out of sync and insists on doubling down on a very unpopular economic program)?

[King of Kensington]

Lol, can't believe Charest himself escaped my mind. I often forget that the PCs were still around post-1993...so did many voters at the time too, I suppose.

1997 election was interesting.  Charest had a right-wing economic program that tried to appeal to Reform voters (unsuccessfully).  But the Liberals lost ground due to unemployment benefit cuts in the Maritimes and both the PCs and NDP gained.  A lot of Red Tories got elected who didn't really subscribe to the economic orthodoxy of the leadership.

[King of Kensington]

Seems like the "bitcoin" strategy exacerbates the problem of attracting votes that don't deliver seats.  In the Prairies where Cons already dominate perhaps it taps into the social credit history.  And maybe some dudebros in Spadina-Fort York will like it, but not enough votes to make the seat competitive.

In some ways it's like Jagmeet's "Tiktok stardom" strategy.

[King of Kensington]

How many non-college voters are there going to be in even the conservative leadership election ?

During leadership races a lot of people sign up as "instant members" to support a specific candidate, but don't usually stick around and aren't that interested in the internal affairs of the party.  The Bitcoin strategy may sign up some dudebros without degrees.  I suspect the long-term membership is more educated than those who sign up to support candidate.

[King of Kensington]

People are saying don't underestimate Poilievre and making predictions for something 3 years ago is a fool's game, but I'm trying to imagine how he can make major gains in the 905, the Lower Mainland, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  I don't think there's a huge appetite for minimal government libertarianism in Canada.  Doing well in the Prairies and rural Ontario adds nothing to the CPC tally. 

[King of Kensington]

Manitoba has the most socially conservative ridings in Canada, so not surprising Leslyn Lewis doing best among Manitoba Conservatives.

[King of Kensington]

The PPC showing in Manitoba's Mennonite Bible belt shows how Libertarians and so-cons are aligned in their disdain for moderation or "Red Toryism."