2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Independents for Nihilism]

The buzz in my circles is that people want somebody with Poilievre's ideas but not his rhetoric. I also have a friend who's normally a Liberal voter but has been won over by Michelle Rempel. Frankly I have no clue how this plays out and I give it 50-50 odds that my avatar is back to Independent in a couple months. Godspeed, Murphy Brown.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Probably just bloviation, but this idea of Charest accomplishing the mythical feat of uniting Red Tories and Blue Grits has me excited. I've always been more PC than C anyway, and seeing that return could either go surprisingly well, or condemn us to 20 years of Generalissimo Freeland, but I'm willing to roll the dice.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/analyse/2022-02-14/parti-conservateur-du-canada/un-realignement-politique-en-branle.php

[Independents for Nihilism]

The Poilievre "anglo-saxon" scandal is the dumbest thing ever. First of all, saying "I believe in communicating in plain, simple, anglo-saxon words" is really dumb on Poilievre's part, because who uses the term "anglo-saxon" on a daily basis? It sounded like he was trying to sound overly intellectual/pretentious.

It's particularly odd since I've only ever heard words described as Anglo-Saxon in comparison to, like you said, words of Latin/Greek origin. Using that kind of terminology makes him come accross as pseudo-intellectual which evidently he was trying to avoid that and describe himself as down-to-earth, but I mean, he was on Jordan Peterson's podcast and that man is the king of using academic jargon to say nothing in particular so maybe it came with the territory.

Or maybe it is a dog whistle, I don't know, I'm not a dog. I'm no fan of Poilievre to begin with but I'm also a little reluctant to accept Brown's description of it as well, hot on the heels of that weird thing about Nazis emailing him and Michelle Rempel that I'm not quite sure of the details on. I might need a little more context in order to relax my hackles - for example, was "Old Stock Canadians" a phrase that was in use before Harper? Because these days I tend to see it only from white spremacist-adjacent places. Despite having always floated around the margins of Tory circles I never really heard it elsewhere.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Poilievre panders to WEF conspiracists:

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1528743024229949440

See now this is completely unnecessary on Poilievre's part. By all accounts, his basic pocketbook campaign was leading to high support among CPC supporters, with some polling suggesting he had a shot at a first-ballot victory. And this was a message he could stick to until 2025 and take to the voting public, because "I will make your life more affordable and less burdensome" is a message that works anywhere. Going down the deep end of WEF conspiracy theories and the like is handcuffing himself and the party in a general election - unless of course he pivots away from it, but O'Toole and more recently Kenney have shown, once you unleash the beast, don't just assume you can tame it.

I don't understand how any conservative voter could be against this policy. Even giving the WEF the benefit of the doubt they are not the type of organization that advocates policies that are compatible with either fiscal or social conservatism. Why should MP's who claim to be conservative attend their events?

Don't get me wrong, the WEF membership seem like eurotrash and champagne socialists at best, but outright banning ministers from shmoozing with them feels like pandering to the conspiracies from a guy who's all about personal freedom, unless you want to ban them from being wined-and-dined by any interest group as well. It's not a lot to ask to assume your caucus has enough sense to figure these things out on their own. See: https://theline.substack.com/p/michelle-rempel-garner-i-went-to?s=r

[Independents for Nihilism]

I see the membership surge cutting one of two ways: either Brown has successfully mobilized suburbanites and the fabled ethnic vote (though it remains to be seen if his vote distribution would be efficient enough), or the people going to Poilievre's rallies are in fact some hitherto-unntapped blue collar mass that may have been non-voters or PPC voters or Tory voters who just weren't registered, spurred on by affordability messaging and wanting their to move their money into crypto so the big bad government can't freeze their bank accounts, or whatever the conventional wisdom is these days. Considering membership is going to, what, double? It's in all likelihood some combination of the two.  

[Independents for Nihilism]

I have to wonder what the benefit of overstating your membership numbers is. Trying to scare other candidates? All I can see happening is it driving down your turnout since people might think their support isn't needed, much like runaway polls.

[Independents for Nihilism]

These are some stunning numbers, to say the least. Either I underestimated PP's appeal, or is is possible that candidates are claiming unaffiliated sign-ups as their own?

[Independents for Nihilism]

I can't tell if Poilievre is continuously alienating people (since he's certainly alienating me) or consolidating a stronger and stronger base (for leadership, at least - the general is a whole other kettle of fish). Per https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/06/09/pierre-poilievre-and-marco-mendicino-spar-over-who-asked-for-emergencies-act-to-be-invoked.html - a Liberal cabinet minister calling his rhetoric "disqualifying" is probably a badge of honour for a lot of people, but how many?

[Independents for Nihilism]

I can't tell if Poilievre is continuously alienating people (since he's certainly alienating me) or consolidating a stronger and stronger base (for leadership, at least - the general is a whole other kettle of fish). Per https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/06/09/pierre-poilievre-and-marco-mendicino-spar-over-who-asked-for-emergencies-act-to-be-invoked.html - a Liberal cabinet minister calling his rhetoric "disqualifying" is probably a badge of honour for a lot of people, but how many?

Going after Marco Mendicino isn't going to hurt Poilievre, not with the general public and certainly not with CPC supporters. "Did Mendicino lie by suggesting that the OPS asked for the emergencies act" likely won't be a major question three years from now anyway, but in the current context, I can't imagine any CPC member thinking gee, I was gonna vote for this Pierre fella, but now that he's picking fights with Marco Mendicino, I don't even know anymore

I see your point, but I just think there's little to be gained by engaging with this stupid controversy of whether the OPS literally asked for the Emergencies Act or just implied it. Granted, anybody with an opinion one way or the other almost certainly has their mind made up on PP as well, but that's exactly it: he may not be turning off his base, but he doesn't seem to be expanding it either. I guess what you mean is that come federal election time, nobody is going to remember what he said on this topic so the point is moot.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Poilievre loses LeBreton and gains Elmer MacKay.

TIL Peter MacKay's dad is still alive. Incidentally, Peter MacKay's leadership website is also still up.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Well I guess that explains why the Brown campaign hasn't sent me any spam mail yet.

If only Doug Ford could drop in to replace him, then time would truly be a flat circle.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Hopefully he becomes the Canadian equalivent of Lincoln project types

Probably wishful thinking on my part, but I always figured the outcome of this race would be the re-emergence of the Progressive Conservatives as a Lib Dems-esque spoiler that would slot barely above the Greens in the seat count at best. I could see maybe a few Liberals crossing the floor to something like this too, but not enough to make a meaningful impact.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Third debate is happening but I have to wonder how many ballots have already been filled out