2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Oryxslayer]

It's going to be Poillievre right? The guy who has personas that appeal to both the Reform and the Business types, while also being in strong position to benefit from anti-crazy consolidation against whoever tries from the extremes.

[Oryxslayer]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs. 

Kind of fulfilling Andrew Coyne's point from not so long back...

"Moreover, while the Liberals, as the party of power and therefore of cabinet posts, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing so much as hatred of the Grits. Which may explain why the party’s leading lights so often look and sound like campus Conservatives."


 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Generally true although in Alberta prior to 2015, PCs were party that got a lot of top individuals, many who weren't even very conservative but ran there as they were party expected to win.

Ontario PCs in 2018 actually had a pretty strong slate, but being in the lead in the polls for over 2 years probably helped a lot.  Federal Liberal slate in 2015 was pretty weak compared to past for this reason.  I think main thing is party has to look like it can win before strong ones sign up as many accomplished individuals want to serve country not be stuck in opposition forever.

Chiming in on this point that there was a bunch of ink split last year over how the Federal Liberals were poaching anyone who could be considered a 'star' and the Tories got the candidates who were happy to run while the party lost. So there is just a better crop 'out there' for non-Liberals.

[Oryxslayer]

If there is a loser from this deal, its the Bloc who no longer have an opening to do their wheeling and dealing. Which may be another long-term point in the Conservative's favor since it would push the Bloc into opposition and therefore short-term allies of convenience with the Conservatives. Given the present Quebec polls I have no doubt that Legault wants/believes he can to push his federal liaison into a more friendlier arrangement to the federal CCP now that separatism is DOA - which may be possible, we don't know what the future will hold.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1511410270530322446?s=20&t=Bwfrgt8AX...

Anyway, the clowncar that is forming has seemed to be the most expectedly doomed thing, as expected when O'Toole got kicked out. Weirdly, I think it has formed because everyone expects PP to win, so the competition is for some type of secondary rewards.

Which is also why PP has 'kicked his feet back' so to speak, and is attacking others or talking about issues that arn't red meat. His brand is known, and image already present. He doesn't need to make statements for the masses that might come back to bite him.

[Oryxslayer]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

If anything, I think Poillievre's campaign demonstrates that he knows his reputation/personality/history alone will bring back enough of the PPC to negate their meaningfulness, and is therefore trying to test things that might have wider appeal without contradicting that history. Essentially a case of imaging and "vibes" doing all the lifting red meat planks that others would need. This of course won't really show up in the internal election:  it's a contest of devout and loyal deciding which candidate is closest to them on narrow spectrums, and Poillievre appears to have a majority (on the right) of this spectrum sown up based on polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government.  

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

Again, I dispute these bizarre characterizations of Poillievre's campaign strategy.

The big message he's been pushing the past several days is basically "progressive gatekeepers are stopping homes from being built. I will remove the gatekeepers blocking new supply"

Heck a few days ago he tweeted:

"Highly skilled new Canadians want to earn bigger paycheques & do the jobs they're trained for. Remove gatekeepers that block them. Give Canada more doctors, engineers & skilled professionals."

Put it wherever you want on the political spectrum, but it's definitely not targeted at Bernier's voters in Portage-Lisgar or Timmins-James Bay.

Poilievre just might be the Conservative Trudeau, insofar as how he inspires white-hot rage from his opponents that blinds the ability to look at him objectively. The campaign Poilievre is trying to run, at least when it comes to first impressions, resonates with a large group of people, and not just far-right PPC supporters or hicks from rural Alberta or whatever. His basic message, overly simplistic as it may be, goes beyond the standard fare of Conservative politicians in this country.

People have long argued that the Tories need to shut up about niche issues that nobody outside the CPC base cares about, and start talking about pocketbook issues that expand the base. That's exactly what Poilievre is doing, but he's taking a different route than the consensus of our commentariat that Canadians will only vote for Blue Grits and Red Tories

Like I said above, maybe it's because I'm not Canadian and can look at him without seeing evil, but I agree this is correct. And I believe the only reason he can do this is cause his vibes/personality are harmonious with the base that usually forces CPC candidate to make all sorts of stupid promises.

On another note, Further polling that says PP might win round 1:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1514264268044132357?s=20&t=hpFPnC...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1514265043919163398?s=20&t=hpFPnC...

[Oryxslayer]

I mean barring some surprises, PP is going to win the round 1 ballot - or at least one of the early rounds where a nobody is kicked off. I'm therefore surprised he didn't endorse earlier, but perhaps he did in private and just wanted to time things right.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

[Oryxslayer]

Riding By Riding Results



https://cpc-leadership-2022.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/10200514/Results-by-Riding.pdf

PP wins everything except: Brossard–Saint-Lambert, Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Louis-Hébert, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, Sherbrooke, Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs, Ottawa Centre, and University–Rosedale. Charest won those.

[Oryxslayer]

What's also interesting is the drop in support for social conservative candidates. Social conservative voters were key in both 2017 and 2022, and their preferences helped elect both Scheer and O'Toole.

2017: 16% (Lemieux+Trost)
2020: 25% (Lewis)
2022: 10% (Lewis)

I suppose some of that is due to the party signing up new memberships of more disenfranchised types who are less likely to be socially conservative. Social conservatives may have also been turned off from participating in the party because they didn't get anything in return from supporting O'Toole and Scheer.

Or they just supported PP because as the 'consensus candidate' it was his race to lose. Same with the PC types from further up. Like there comes a point where a candidate is just that popular within his lane that all types of voters in all types of factions support them, with the exception of the most radical parts of those factions.