2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Pierre Poilievre and Leslyn Lewis have decided to skip the August 3rd debate. This is an official party debate not something organized by an outside group. I don't know if it's part of the libertarian trend, having a problem with authority.

I don't think it's part of the "libertarian trend", it's more strategic. First of all, the CPC LEOC are massive boneheads in the way they organized this whole thing:

1. The first LEOC-organized debate was possibly the worst debate format I have ever seen, and most people seemed to agree that it was steaming hot garbage. The paddles, the sad trombone, the silly questions, you name it.
2. This debate is happening after the ballots have already been mailed out. Many members have already filled out their ballots and mailed them back in. Debates are supposed to happen before the vote.

It doesn't really make sense to do a debate now, and Poilievre in particular has little to gain from it. Why take the risk of Charest landing a knockout punch and changing the tides, when by all accounts, you're on track to win anyway?

The more tinfoil-hat 4D Chess theory is that skipping the debate is a ploy to reduce viewership. Again, when you're the frontrunner, the last thing you want is to give exposure to your opponents. With Poilievre and Lewis sitting it out, this debate will probably have a smaller viewership, ergo, less chances of minds being changed. I'd note that Trudeau has also tended to skip non-commission debates during his time as PM, and he's no anti-authority populist. I think his calculation for those decisions were the same - if the PM isn't in the debate, fewer people will watch, and the opponents get less exposure.

As for Leslyn Lewis, she too has little to gain, but for a different reason. Lewis is not a good debater. She looks very uncomfortable behind the podium and stumbles on her words a lot. Also, she has her base locked down, many of whom are better reached via direct mailers and church groups than TV debates. The candidate whose base she would be most likely to crack into is Poilievre, and he's not attending either.

[Poirot]

MP Joël Godin is contemplating four options if Poilievere is leader. Leave the MP office, join another party in parliament, sit as an independent or participate in the launch of a new party.
 
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2022-08-03/course-a-la-direction-conservatrice/reflexions-et-defections-a-prevoir-si-poilievre-l-emporte.php

He is disappointed in the last few months with the agressive leadership race and the vicious personal attacks.

Senator Jean-Guy Dagenais still has a membership but is considering ripping his card.

[Хahar 🤔]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

Charest wasn't a particularly popular former premier though, especially by the end of his term. Anti-Charest sentiment mostly came from the left, but not exclusively - much of the CPC Quebec caucus are former ADQ/CAQistes, including Gerard Deltell who was actually leader of the ADQ and very opposed to Charest. And while Poilievre is a western conservative with his roots in the Canadian Alliance, and his policies are probably too right-wing for mainstream Quebecers, that makes Poilievre no different than Harper and Scheer - if anything, he's a continuation of Harper-era conservatism but speaks better French. My explanation is either Deltell, Rayes, Godin etc really don't like the guy, or they think Poilievre's "freedom" message will feel alien to the cultural sensibilities of Quebecers. Probably a combination of the two.

[MaxQue]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

Charest wasn't a particularly popular former premier though, especially by the end of his term. Anti-Charest sentiment mostly came from the left, but not exclusively - much of the CPC Quebec caucus are former ADQ/CAQistes, including Gerard Deltell who was actually leader of the ADQ and very opposed to Charest. And while Poilievre is a western conservative with his roots in the Canadian Alliance, and his policies are probably too right-wing for mainstream Quebecers, that makes Poilievre no different than Harper and Scheer - if anything, he's a continuation of Harper-era conservatism but speaks better French. My explanation is either Deltell, Rayes, Godin etc really don't like the guy, or they think Poilievre's "freedom" message will feel alien to the cultural sensibilities of Quebecers. Probably a combination of the two.

Quebec French has a great word for Poilievre "freedom" message. "Libârté", which is a very "white trash" pronounciation of "liberté" and often used to mock supporters of the convoy and so on.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

Charest wasn't a particularly popular former premier though, especially by the end of his term. Anti-Charest sentiment mostly came from the left, but not exclusively - much of the CPC Quebec caucus are former ADQ/CAQistes, including Gerard Deltell who was actually leader of the ADQ and very opposed to Charest. And while Poilievre is a western conservative with his roots in the Canadian Alliance, and his policies are probably too right-wing for mainstream Quebecers, that makes Poilievre no different than Harper and Scheer - if anything, he's a continuation of Harper-era conservatism but speaks better French. My explanation is either Deltell, Rayes, Godin etc really don't like the guy, or they think Poilievre's "freedom" message will feel alien to the cultural sensibilities of Quebecers. Probably a combination of the two.

The Entire Poilievre strategy is to change the narrative and formula rather than fight on the same battleground that the Tories have fought on since 2015.

His strategy is based on the idea that voters really don't care about left center right as much as whether the issues facing them is being addressed and he has aggressively addressed issues such as housing that previous conservatives did not.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

Charest wasn't a particularly popular former premier though, especially by the end of his term. Anti-Charest sentiment mostly came from the left, but not exclusively - much of the CPC Quebec caucus are former ADQ/CAQistes, including Gerard Deltell who was actually leader of the ADQ and very opposed to Charest. And while Poilievre is a western conservative with his roots in the Canadian Alliance, and his policies are probably too right-wing for mainstream Quebecers, that makes Poilievre no different than Harper and Scheer - if anything, he's a continuation of Harper-era conservatism but speaks better French. My explanation is either Deltell, Rayes, Godin etc really don't like the guy, or they think Poilievre's "freedom" message will feel alien to the cultural sensibilities of Quebecers. Probably a combination of the two.

Quebec French has a great word for Poilievre "freedom" message. "Libârté", which is a very "white trash" pronounciation of "liberté" and often used to mock supporters of the convoy and so on.

That's funny, and yeah I would guess that's the problem some Quebec Tories have with him, his style of conservatism with libertarian undertones is very Anglo-American and not what Quebecers are used to. Perhaps the rise of the PCQ shows that the ground has shifted, but of course the PCQ is very unpopular outside the 10-odd% that support them. That said, I still find it a little weird because on substance, Poilievre is really not that much of a departure from Harper or Scheer. Different than O'Toole, sure, but he was an exception (and not particularly popular in Quebec either, fwiw). Indeed, both Harper and Scheer have endorsed him, Scheer even headlines Poilievre rallies in Saskatchewan, and the anti-PP crew in the Quebec caucus were all big supporters of Harper and Scheer. I would have thought that even though Quebecers as a whole wouldn't love a neo-Harperite with populist tendencies, I figured at least the QC CPC establishment based around Quebec City would go for him

[Continential]

Didn't someone blackmail the Quebec Tories into voting to remove O'Toole? I think the person who blackmailed them is Pierre Poilievre or someone close to him.

[adma]

Let's also remember re libertarian populism that part of what sealed Max Bernier's doom in his bid for the Con leadership was his paradoxical lack of support in QC relative to what was expected of him...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Didn't someone blackmail the Quebec Tories into voting to remove O'Toole? I think the person who blackmailed them is Pierre Poilievre or someone close to him.

That could very well be part of the reasoning. Poilievre never openly opposed O'Toole, but after the election he basically started acting as co-leader, so it's believable if not likely that he and his allies were pushing pro-O'Toole MPs behind the scenes to create a vacancy.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Let's also remember re libertarian populism that part of what sealed Max Bernier's doom in his bid for the Con leadership was his paradoxical lack of support in QC relative to what was expected of him...

Bernier outperformed Scheer in Quebec though. Perhaps not as much as you'd expect a favourite son to do against a whitebread westerner, but it's not like Quebec members flat-out rejected him. That said, I do take your point. Arguably what made Bernier do particularly poorly in Quebec was his stance on supply management, considering how Scheer dominated the Eastern Townships and the Beauce. But outside the dairy producing areas, Bernier beat Scheer, including all five Quebec City seats. Poilievre doesn't have that supply management albatross, but in other aspects, he's a worse fit for Quebec.

In any case, there's every indication that Poilievre will still win Quebec in the leadership race, based on the number of unique donors and membership sales. In a general, no doubt he would be weaker than Charest there, but I don't think we'll see a situation where the Quebec Tory membership rejects Pierre while the rest embrace him (like happened in the initial CPC leadership race between Harper and Stronach)

[mileslunn]

Poilievre likely dominates Western provinces.  Even BC and urban Prairies which are not exactly bastions for right wing populism probably go heavily for him as most members are very much populist and libertarian message seems to unlike social conservative one appeal to most.  Ontario despite being seen on paper as a place Charest does well, I suspect Poilievre dominates too.  Charest maybe wins a few upper middle class ridings with lots who have college degrees but that is it.

Quebec should be closer, but agree Poilievre finishes ahead.  Still with caucus mostly backing Charest it should be interesting how relations are between Poilievre and Quebec caucus.  If any as Joel Godin has hinted bolt party, it won't be a good start.  Also with Quebec election this fall, PCQ support will be interesting as their message very similar to Poilievre's so might be first hint how he will do.  Yes some CAQ voters will go Conservative, but a lot probably BQ.

Atlantic Canada is tougher to predict.  It is generally a Red Tory area and Charest did well there in 1997 so logic would suggest Charest should win here.  But looking at rallies Poilievre draws there and fact past races had more right wing candidates doing better than anticipated, I could see Poilievre winning even there.  Membership of federal Tories in this region is much different than Provincial PCs.  While some overlap, most Clark/Stanfield types still members of provincial party but have given up on federal.  While maybe a minority, still 10-20% of Atlantic Canadians want unabashed conservatism and those types much more likely to be party members than your traditional Red Tory types. 

Should Poilievre win, big tests will be upcoming Quebec and Alberta elections.  Quebec as PCQ is eerily similar so if they get in high teens or low 20s shows market for that as lets remember Legault is far more acceptable to centre-right types than Trudeau is so whatever PCQ gets is sort of baseline for federal Tories.

Alberta though is other test.  If Smith is leader and she loses to Notley or barely scrapes by, this could be a huge red flag as Alberta is normally a reliably conservative province so if cannot win or limp across finish line, that suggests bad news.  At same time Notley while similar to Trudeau in ideology, she doesn't have near the negative baggage he does.  And also I get impression a fair number of Albertans vote left provincially right federally as lean left overall, but feel federal Liberals and NDP hostile to province so vote Conservative more over regional concerns as opposed to ideology so even if Notley wins; I am still pretty sure Poilievre will dominate Alberta in next election.  Days of UCP having lock on province may be over, but I don't think days of federal Tories having lock on province are coming to an end anytime soon.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I expect the results to be more geographically homogenous than one would generally expect, with Quebec being a bit more of an outlier. There's a lot of talk about the different factions of the conservative movement and their geographic breakdown. And while there's some truth to the traditional geographical breakdown of tories that will likely lead to Poilievre overperforming west of Ontario and underperforming east of Ontario, it won't be that stark of a divide. The geographical breakdown of his membership sales suggest that apart from the obvious fact of Alberta being overrepresented in conservative politics and Quebec being underrepresented, Poilievre has a pretty broad base across Canada.

A big part of it is that the conservative movement has been largely homogenized across Canada (and across the western world to some extent). This is especially true among younger conservatives. To the extent that there are strong regional considerations (Albertans being more focused on petro-politics, for example), Poilievre has threaded that needle pretty well. Lewis will most likely outperform in rural parts of Ontario and the prairies and the religious right pockets of BC (Abbotsford, Chilliwack etc), but unlike O'Toole and MacKay, Poilievre has enough credibility with base conservatives that I think even the so-con areas will ultimately vote Poilievre.

The one I'm curious about is Baber. I think it's fair to say that he's a name nobody expected on this ballot, but he's done pretty well in appealing to a certain "South Park Republican" constituency that's not particularly deeply conservative, but is frustrated with COVID-era policies and so-called "woke" politics generally. His membership sale numbers suggest that he's particularly strong in Toronto and York Region. He probably won't win any riding outright other than York Centre, but don't be surprised to see him outperform Lewis and Aitchison, even run close to Charest in parts of suburban Toronto and the 905. His Jewish identity in particular might help him greatly in York Region and ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence - in addition to his native York Centre, of course.

Outside of Quebec and maybe some pockets out east, I think Charest's strength will be limited to downtown and "Brahmin" areas. Places like Uni-Rosedale, Don Valley West, Parkdale-High Park etc will likely favour him, but even in the suburbs, I don't see him doing all that well.

[mileslunn]

I expect the results to be more geographically homogenous than one would generally expect, with Quebec being a bit more of an outlier. There's a lot of talk about the different factions of the conservative movement and their geographic breakdown. And while there's some truth to the traditional geographical breakdown of tories that will likely lead to Poilievre overperforming west of Ontario and underperforming east of Ontario, it won't be that stark of a divide. The geographical breakdown of his membership sales suggest that apart from the obvious fact of Alberta being overrepresented in conservative politics and Quebec being underrepresented, Poilievre has a pretty broad base across Canada.

A big part of it is that the conservative movement has been largely homogenized across Canada (and across the western world to some extent). This is especially true among younger conservatives. To the extent that there are strong regional considerations (Albertans being more focused on petro-politics, for example), Poilievre has threaded that needle pretty well. Lewis will most likely outperform in rural parts of Ontario and the prairies and the religious right pockets of BC (Abbotsford, Chilliwack etc), but unlike O'Toole and MacKay, Poilievre has enough credibility with base conservatives that I think even the so-con areas will ultimately vote Poilievre.

The one I'm curious about is Baber. I think it's fair to say that he's a name nobody expected on this ballot, but he's done pretty well in appealing to a certain "South Park Republican" constituency that's not particularly deeply conservative, but is frustrated with COVID-era policies and so-called "woke" politics generally. His membership sale numbers suggest that he's particularly strong in Toronto and York Region. He probably won't win any riding outright other than York Centre, but don't be surprised to see him outperform Lewis and Aitchison, even run close to Charest in parts of suburban Toronto and the 905. His Jewish identity in particular might help him greatly in York Region and ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence - in addition to his native York Centre, of course.

Outside of Quebec and maybe some pockets out east, I think Charest's strength will be limited to downtown and "Brahmin" areas. Places like Uni-Rosedale, Don Valley West, Parkdale-High Park etc will likely favour him, but even in the suburbs, I don't see him doing all that well.

I think that is largely true.  Many are looking a bigger electorate and who will have most appeal in regions and forget party membership is quite different from general electorate.  At same time I do expect Poilievre to have blowouts in most Western ridings save a few urban ones.  Ontario a large win but not quite as lopsided as West.  Quebec and Atlantic Canada I think takes too, but in those two Charest probably puts up a strong second and wins some ridings.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I expect the results to be more geographically homogenous than one would generally expect, with Quebec being a bit more of an outlier. There's a lot of talk about the different factions of the conservative movement and their geographic breakdown. And while there's some truth to the traditional geographical breakdown of tories that will likely lead to Poilievre overperforming west of Ontario and underperforming east of Ontario, it won't be that stark of a divide. The geographical breakdown of his membership sales suggest that apart from the obvious fact of Alberta being overrepresented in conservative politics and Quebec being underrepresented, Poilievre has a pretty broad base across Canada.

A big part of it is that the conservative movement has been largely homogenized across Canada (and across the western world to some extent). This is especially true among younger conservatives. To the extent that there are strong regional considerations (Albertans being more focused on petro-politics, for example), Poilievre has threaded that needle pretty well. Lewis will most likely outperform in rural parts of Ontario and the prairies and the religious right pockets of BC (Abbotsford, Chilliwack etc), but unlike O'Toole and MacKay, Poilievre has enough credibility with base conservatives that I think even the so-con areas will ultimately vote Poilievre.

The one I'm curious about is Baber. I think it's fair to say that he's a name nobody expected on this ballot, but he's done pretty well in appealing to a certain "South Park Republican" constituency that's not particularly deeply conservative, but is frustrated with COVID-era policies and so-called "woke" politics generally. His membership sale numbers suggest that he's particularly strong in Toronto and York Region. He probably won't win any riding outright other than York Centre, but don't be surprised to see him outperform Lewis and Aitchison, even run close to Charest in parts of suburban Toronto and the 905. His Jewish identity in particular might help him greatly in York Region and ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence - in addition to his native York Centre, of course.

Outside of Quebec and maybe some pockets out east, I think Charest's strength will be limited to downtown and "Brahmin" areas. Places like Uni-Rosedale, Don Valley West, Parkdale-High Park etc will likely favour him, but even in the suburbs, I don't see him doing all that well.

I think that is largely true.  Many are looking a bigger electorate and who will have most appeal in regions and forget party membership is quite different from general electorate.  At same time I do expect Poilievre to have blowouts in most Western ridings save a few urban ones.  Ontario a large win but not quite as lopsided as West.  Quebec and Atlantic Canada I think takes too, but in those two Charest probably puts up a strong second and wins some ridings.

Another likely consequence of this leadership election will be a diminished role of social conservatives, even if such an effect is temporary. Even though Poilievre has some appeal to the so-con crowd, most of his new sign-ups are more libertarian-oriented, much like himself. And apart from the vaccine issue and occasional anti-"woke" platitudes, Poilievre has really been more focused on the fiscal aspects of conservatism. The token so-con of this race, Leslyn Lewis, didn't even focus on that stuff quite as much this time around, she mainly tried clumsily to out-Poilievre Poilievre.

[mileslunn]

I expect the results to be more geographically homogenous than one would generally expect, with Quebec being a bit more of an outlier. There's a lot of talk about the different factions of the conservative movement and their geographic breakdown. And while there's some truth to the traditional geographical breakdown of tories that will likely lead to Poilievre overperforming west of Ontario and underperforming east of Ontario, it won't be that stark of a divide. The geographical breakdown of his membership sales suggest that apart from the obvious fact of Alberta being overrepresented in conservative politics and Quebec being underrepresented, Poilievre has a pretty broad base across Canada.

A big part of it is that the conservative movement has been largely homogenized across Canada (and across the western world to some extent). This is especially true among younger conservatives. To the extent that there are strong regional considerations (Albertans being more focused on petro-politics, for example), Poilievre has threaded that needle pretty well. Lewis will most likely outperform in rural parts of Ontario and the prairies and the religious right pockets of BC (Abbotsford, Chilliwack etc), but unlike O'Toole and MacKay, Poilievre has enough credibility with base conservatives that I think even the so-con areas will ultimately vote Poilievre.

The one I'm curious about is Baber. I think it's fair to say that he's a name nobody expected on this ballot, but he's done pretty well in appealing to a certain "South Park Republican" constituency that's not particularly deeply conservative, but is frustrated with COVID-era policies and so-called "woke" politics generally. His membership sale numbers suggest that he's particularly strong in Toronto and York Region. He probably won't win any riding outright other than York Centre, but don't be surprised to see him outperform Lewis and Aitchison, even run close to Charest in parts of suburban Toronto and the 905. His Jewish identity in particular might help him greatly in York Region and ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence - in addition to his native York Centre, of course.

Outside of Quebec and maybe some pockets out east, I think Charest's strength will be limited to downtown and "Brahmin" areas. Places like Uni-Rosedale, Don Valley West, Parkdale-High Park etc will likely favour him, but even in the suburbs, I don't see him doing all that well.

I think that is largely true.  Many are looking a bigger electorate and who will have most appeal in regions and forget party membership is quite different from general electorate.  At same time I do expect Poilievre to have blowouts in most Western ridings save a few urban ones.  Ontario a large win but not quite as lopsided as West.  Quebec and Atlantic Canada I think takes too, but in those two Charest probably puts up a strong second and wins some ridings.

Another likely consequence of this leadership election will be a diminished role of social conservatives, even if such an effect is temporary. Even though Poilievre has some appeal to the so-con crowd, most of his new sign-ups are more libertarian-oriented, much like himself. And apart from the vaccine issue and occasional anti-"woke" platitudes, Poilievre has really been more focused on the fiscal aspects of conservatism. The token so-con of this race, Leslyn Lewis, didn't even focus on that stuff quite as much this time around, she mainly tried clumsily to out-Poilievre Poilievre.

Lewis spent a lot more time on conspiracy theories too and Poilievre tried to appeal to such people, but avoided directly pushing them like Lewis did.  Also I think there is a certain element that just want an unapologetic conservative which he is and someone willing to stand up to establishment and its less policy and more someone who will push back against establishment who they dislike.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I expect the results to be more geographically homogenous than one would generally expect, with Quebec being a bit more of an outlier. There's a lot of talk about the different factions of the conservative movement and their geographic breakdown. And while there's some truth to the traditional geographical breakdown of tories that will likely lead to Poilievre overperforming west of Ontario and underperforming east of Ontario, it won't be that stark of a divide. The geographical breakdown of his membership sales suggest that apart from the obvious fact of Alberta being overrepresented in conservative politics and Quebec being underrepresented, Poilievre has a pretty broad base across Canada.

A big part of it is that the conservative movement has been largely homogenized across Canada (and across the western world to some extent). This is especially true among younger conservatives. To the extent that there are strong regional considerations (Albertans being more focused on petro-politics, for example), Poilievre has threaded that needle pretty well. Lewis will most likely outperform in rural parts of Ontario and the prairies and the religious right pockets of BC (Abbotsford, Chilliwack etc), but unlike O'Toole and MacKay, Poilievre has enough credibility with base conservatives that I think even the so-con areas will ultimately vote Poilievre.

The one I'm curious about is Baber. I think it's fair to say that he's a name nobody expected on this ballot, but he's done pretty well in appealing to a certain "South Park Republican" constituency that's not particularly deeply conservative, but is frustrated with COVID-era policies and so-called "woke" politics generally. His membership sale numbers suggest that he's particularly strong in Toronto and York Region. He probably won't win any riding outright other than York Centre, but don't be surprised to see him outperform Lewis and Aitchison, even run close to Charest in parts of suburban Toronto and the 905. His Jewish identity in particular might help him greatly in York Region and ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence - in addition to his native York Centre, of course.

Outside of Quebec and maybe some pockets out east, I think Charest's strength will be limited to downtown and "Brahmin" areas. Places like Uni-Rosedale, Don Valley West, Parkdale-High Park etc will likely favour him, but even in the suburbs, I don't see him doing all that well.

I think that is largely true.  Many are looking a bigger electorate and who will have most appeal in regions and forget party membership is quite different from general electorate.  At same time I do expect Poilievre to have blowouts in most Western ridings save a few urban ones.  Ontario a large win but not quite as lopsided as West.  Quebec and Atlantic Canada I think takes too, but in those two Charest probably puts up a strong second and wins some ridings.

Another likely consequence of this leadership election will be a diminished role of social conservatives, even if such an effect is temporary. Even though Poilievre has some appeal to the so-con crowd, most of his new sign-ups are more libertarian-oriented, much like himself. And apart from the vaccine issue and occasional anti-"woke" platitudes, Poilievre has really been more focused on the fiscal aspects of conservatism. The token so-con of this race, Leslyn Lewis, didn't even focus on that stuff quite as much this time around, she mainly tried clumsily to out-Poilievre Poilievre.

Lewis spent a lot more time on conspiracy theories too and Poilievre tried to appeal to such people, but avoided directly pushing them like Lewis did.  Also I think there is a certain element that just want an unapologetic conservative which he is and someone willing to stand up to establishment and its less policy and more someone who will push back against establishment who they dislike.

One of Pierre's political strengths (although the part about him that gives me some pause) has been his ability to court some rather fringe people without acting like a fringe candidate. Most of the mainstream conservative movement is behind him, including very serious people like Harper who wouldn't have backed just any two-bit populist, because he has credibility with insiders. He's also made the smart play of distancing himself from mainstream social conservatism, particularly the issues of abortion and LGBT issues. Like even on the trans skepticism stuff, which is very much a big thing inside the conservative movement as a whole as we can see in the US and especially the UK, he's avoiding the regular social conservative talk. Of course, he's taken some very controversial and pretty right-wing positions on a lot of the COVID-related stuff, which may ultimately come back to bite him. But I see that as a good electoral trade-off - both social conservatism and liber-toryism are minor factions within the Canadian population as a whole and most are already reliable CPC voters, but unlike social conservatism, I think there's some potential to the more libertarian side of conservatism in attracting voters who didn't previously vote conservative (myself included) - but more significantly, most of the base is with him on this stuff. Whereas with Charest, he didn't really give anything to either the so-cons or the lib-cons, and I think that was particularly to his demise. To the extent that there is a walk-out of red tories and Quebec conservatives like Alain Rayes and Pierre Paul-hus, I'd be very disappointed, but I can't see an actual partisan split on the centre-right with Poilievre as leader, which is a bigger worry than some MPs simply leaving the caucus.

Lewis played this race clumsily. She tried to come out on the right of Poilievre and put a lot of energy into picking up conspiracy-types, but that just makes her second-fiddle to Poilievre in the minds of many voters. Her older, more explicitly so-con oriented presentation seemed more authentic, and she would have had that field to herself. Instead, she's tried to play the same game as Poilievre and Baber, but her delivery has not been super well-received by many conservatives. For example, she's angered some people quite a bit recently, seemingly comparing COVID policies to Hitler, and making Hitler comparisons is not how you make yourself look like a serious or deserving contender. So while the party brass can tolerate Pierre's courting of more conspiracy-oriented voters, Lewis goes too far, and she doesn't have much support other than from the nuttier MPs like Arnold Viersen.

[mileslunn]

I don't think a split is likely.  Most splits on right that have any traction have usually been parties that have been in power for a while like federally in 1993 or Alberta in 2012 to 2017.  Tends to happen when governing party becomes very unpopular and significant chunk on right want government defeated but aren't comfortable voting for parties on left.

Also you cannot simply add two parties together.  UKIP in 2015 surge didn't cost Tories and in fact combined right wing vote was 50% which Tories have never gotten in UK.  Likewise in BC 2013, 16 of 18 ridings BC Tories got over 10% in voted BC Liberals.  In most recent election, PPC got over 10% in 23 ridings and 20 of those voted Conservative.  One (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour) had no Tory candidate as dropped at last minute over sexual assault accusations.  Other two were Timmins-James Bay and Windsor-Tecumseh which Doug Ford won so maybe trending that way anyways.  Ontario Party + New Blue Party got almost same percentage as PPC and similar distribution yet Ford won most of the CPC + PPC seats. 

I also think if Charest chosen, most further right would stick with party for simple desire to oust Trudeau and most who did go PPC would mostly be in safe ridings they won by big margins.  So I think talk of split overblown.  Now yes split may happen if party forms government and wins a few terms for reason explained above.

[Poirot]

To the extent that there is a walk-out of red tories and Quebec conservatives like Alain Rayes and Pierre Paul-hus, I'd be very disappointed, but I can't see an actual partisan split on the centre-right with Poilievre as leader, which is a bigger worry than some MPs simply leaving the caucus.

Pierre Paul-Hus supports Poilievre. I imagine that will get him an important role, Quebec lieutenant / spokesperson or major critic portfolio. He co-signed an open letter in support of Poilievre with Yves Lévesque (former candidate and mayor of Trois-Rivières) and two Senators.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2022/08/25/pierre-poilievre-le-leadership-dont-nous-avons-besoin

[Poirot]

News story says Poilievre will make Pierre Paul-Hus his Quebec political lieutenant.

[RogueBeaver]

Sensible choice IMO, wonder if he offers a Charest supporter (Dominique Vien?) the deputy position.

[Poirot]

She was a provincial Liberal minister, so maybe like Charest she is considered a LIBERAL.

I don't know if the MPs who worked and had connections with the provincial Liberals took the "Liberal" attacks personally. Maybe they won't feel very welcomed.

[mileslunn]

She was a provincial Liberal minister, so maybe like Charest she is considered a LIBERAL.

I don't know if the MPs who worked and had connections with the provincial Liberals took the "Liberal" attacks personally. Maybe they won't feel very welcomed.

I think it more shows ignorance of those making them.  BC and Quebec Liberals (or at least Quebec Liberals prior to 2018 loss, now more centre-left unlike earlier) have always been coalitions with both federal Liberals and federal Tories and it was more common enemy that united party rather than common ideology.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

She was a provincial Liberal minister, so maybe like Charest she is considered a LIBERAL.

I don't know if the MPs who worked and had connections with the provincial Liberals took the "Liberal" attacks personally. Maybe they won't feel very welcomed.

I think it more shows ignorance of those making them.  BC and Quebec Liberals (or at least Quebec Liberals prior to 2018 loss, now more centre-left unlike earlier) have always been coalitions with both federal Liberals and federal Tories and it was more common enemy that united party rather than common ideology.

This is true, but if we're being honest, the BC Liberals are an alliance of political expediency more than a genuine ideological movement. Clark had her roots in the federal Liberal Party, and Andrew Wilkinson was actually a member of the LPC. However, the BC Libs can't afford to alienate the 30-35% of British Columbians who vote CPC, so they run more to the right. It's true, many federal Tories from BC have their roots in the BCLP, but so do many federal Liberals. So even though the BC Liberals are a centre-right party in a major province, they have less sway within the Conservative movement than their counterparts in other provinces.

Christy Clark had never declared herself a big-C Conservative prior to this election, and since her retirement as premier, her public statements have indicated her as being more on the right-wing of the federal Liberal coalition rather than the left-wing of the federal Tory coalition. She might have had more sway had she been a popular premier with a strong legacy, but neither of those are the case - I guess the most you could say is that she pulled a Harry Truman style upset in 2013 and was only 1 seat from a majority in 2017, so she knows a thing or two about winning seats in BC. Regardless, I can't see her having convinced too many Conservatives, especially outside BC, to vote Charest.