2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So Michelle Rempel Garner left the Brown campaign to run for UCP leadership. Yesterday, Brown's campaign manager also left to work on MRG's leadership campaign. Today, MRG announces she's not running.

Yeah, looks like they just wanted an amicable way to get out, and that does not speak well to the Brown campaign. At this point, I'm fairly certain that we're headed for a 1st-round Poilievre victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre loses LeBreton and gains Elmer MacKay.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Poilievre loses LeBreton and gains Elmer MacKay.

TIL Peter MacKay's dad is still alive. Incidentally, Peter MacKay's leadership website is also still up.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Elmer endorsed Pierre, but Peter hasn't, has he? I would think Peter MacKay is more of a Charest guy, but he's also pretty deferential and a team player, so if Peter MacKay endorses at all, I'm guessing he'll also go for the favourite.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Pierre. You idiot. Why are you providing royalty-free imagery for the LPC's attack ads in 2025? He basically has the leadership wrapped up, he easily could have the next election wrapped up if he keeps at his social media game and avoids being associated with extremists. So why on earth do you need to be seen marching with James Topp and taking selfies with PPC candidates? The anti-mandate/pro-convoy vote is already all-in for him, it makes no sense to double down on this (especially now that most mandates have been lifted, I'm not even sure what the people in Ottawa are protesting right now). Keep your focus on inflation, you donkey.

[MaxQue]

Pierre. You idiot. Why are you providing royalty-free imagery for the LPC's attack ads in 2025? He basically has the leadership wrapped up, he easily could have the next election wrapped up if he keeps at his social media game and avoids being associated with extremists. So why on earth do you need to be seen marching with James Topp and taking selfies with PPC candidates? The anti-mandate/pro-convoy vote is already all-in for him, it makes no sense to double down on this (especially now that most mandates have been lifted, I'm not even sure what the people in Ottawa are protesting right now). Keep your focus on inflation, you donkey.

They now want a ban on vaccine mandates, re-hiring of anyone fired due to non-vaccination and full financial compensation of the losses they suffered for being fired.

[MaxQue]

And now it seems one of the protestors tried to choke a cop to death.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Pierre. You idiot. Why are you providing royalty-free imagery for the LPC's attack ads in 2025? He basically has the leadership wrapped up, he easily could have the next election wrapped up if he keeps at his social media game and avoids being associated with extremists. So why on earth do you need to be seen marching with James Topp and taking selfies with PPC candidates? The anti-mandate/pro-convoy vote is already all-in for him, it makes no sense to double down on this (especially now that most mandates have been lifted, I'm not even sure what the people in Ottawa are protesting right now). Keep your focus on inflation, you donkey.

They now want a ban on vaccine mandates, re-hiring of anyone fired due to non-vaccination and full financial compensation of the losses they suffered for being fired.

And the thing is, I don't necessarily disagree with those views. Not sure about a total ban on all vaccine mandates forever (I'm not a fan of vaccine mandates whatsoever, but it does make sense in high-risk settings like hospitals etc), but overall I'd be happy to see us move on from the heavy-handed governance of the COVID era. That said, there's no reason for him to be seen associating with James Topp, and it doesn't say good things about Pierre's likelihood to keep the armed forces politically impartial and deferential to the Crown. And strategically, my brother in Christ, what do you hope to get out of this? Does he think the anti-mandate crew is gonna vote for Trudeau in 2025 if he's not seen marching with them? Yeah, not remotely. Will antics like this give the Liberals ammo to call him a far-right extremist? Yeah, absolutely.

[MaxQue]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Politician with long history of sketchy business gets kicked out due to suspicion of sketchy business     !! Say it ain't so!!!

For those of us who have been following Brown for a long time, especially those of us engaged in OnPoli, this is the least surprising news ever. This development probably net benefits Charest more than anyone else, but it's likely that many of Brown's sign-ups won't vote at all. In other words, this race is turning into a prolonged coronation of Skippy.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Well I guess that explains why the Brown campaign hasn't sent me any spam mail yet.

If only Doug Ford could drop in to replace him, then time would truly be a flat circle.

[2952-0-0]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Correction: the LEOC is referring the matter to Elections Canada for potential violations of the Elections Act. EC can't demand that a candidate drop out, especially in a private club's internal matter.

[MaxQue]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Correction: the LEOC is referring the matter to Elections Canada for potential violations of the Elections Act. EC can't demand that a candidate drop out, especially in a private club's internal matter.

EC cannot demand it, but they recommended it to the LEOC (and the LEOC had really no choice but the comply, they don't want to be held responsible in any way for legal violations).

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/chisholmp/status/1544534370333097985?t=2X_1pk8LCDzjxKJcv-7jG...

[2952-0-0]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Correction: the LEOC is referring the matter to Elections Canada for potential violations of the Elections Act. EC can't demand that a candidate drop out, especially in a private club's internal matter.

EC cannot demand it, but they recommended it to the LEOC (and the LEOC had really no choice but the comply, they don't want to be held responsible in any way for legal violations).

Source? Haven't seen anything suggesting EC weighing in.

Also, PP's campaign has weighed in with the most predictable response imaginable, at 4:10:

[MaxQue]

Patrick Brown has been kicked out of the race, at the demand of Elections Canada, due to suspected severe breaches of electoral finance regulations.

Correction: the LEOC is referring the matter to Elections Canada for potential violations of the Elections Act. EC can't demand that a candidate drop out, especially in a private club's internal matter.

EC cannot demand it, but they recommended it to the LEOC (and the LEOC had really no choice but the comply, they don't want to be held responsible in any way for legal violations).

Source? Haven't seen anything suggesting EC weighing in.

Also, PP's campaign has weighed in with the most predictable response imaginable, at 4:10:

Oh, that's Radio-Canada who confused the Chief Electral Officer of Canada and the Chief Electoral Officer of the party in its previous article. Sorry for that.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So...Brampton's deputy mayors (they have two apparently) and three councillors put out a release basically concurring with the CPC leadership organizing committee. Brown of course is alleging that LEOC is corrupt and in the tank for Poilievre. Maybe not the most implausible claim on its own, but I highly doubt a bunch of local politicians in Brampton are in the tank for Poilievre too.

I'm amazed at how many people on CanPoli twitter are still sticking by Brown on this. You don't like Poilievre, I get it, but let's be realistic here. Brown may soon be the first Canadian politician I know of who has been given the boot on all three levels of government on grounds of unethical behaviour. Is it more likely that literally everyone from CPC bigshots to lowly Brampton councillors are in on a conspiracy against him? Or is it more likely that a politician with a long list of sketchy behaviour may not be a very ethical guy?

[MaxQue]

It was established in April of this year (maybe because the mayor was focused elsewhere?), there is a deputy for West Brampton and another one for East Brampton.

[2952-0-0]

Prepare the popcorn. Patrick Brown is determined to burn down the party.

https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1544853825827348480

[OSR stands with Israel]

Prepare the popcorn. Patrick Brown is determined to burn down the party.

https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1544853825827348480

Hopefully he becomes the Canadian equalivent of Lincoln project types

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

 Not much of a race right now, pretty much a Pollivere Coronation.

[Hatman 🍁]

It was established in April of this year (maybe because the mayor was focused elsewhere?), there is a deputy for West Brampton and another one for East Brampton.

That's nothing; Ottawa has three deputy mayors*

*Actually, it did have until Jenna Sudds was elected to parliament last year. They have decided to not replace her.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Hopefully he becomes the Canadian equalivent of Lincoln project types

Probably wishful thinking on my part, but I always figured the outcome of this race would be the re-emergence of the Progressive Conservatives as a Lib Dems-esque spoiler that would slot barely above the Greens in the seat count at best. I could see maybe a few Liberals crossing the floor to something like this too, but not enough to make a meaningful impact.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Prepare the popcorn. Patrick Brown is determined to burn down the party.

https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1544853825827348480

In all likelihood, his attempt to burn down the CPC will go about as well as his attempt to burn down the PCPO. You need friends on the inside to burn down a party, which he doesn't have

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Hopefully he becomes the Canadian equalivent of Lincoln project types

Probably wishful thinking on my part, but I always figured the outcome of this race would be the re-emergence of the Progressive Conservatives as a Lib Dems-esque spoiler that would slot barely above the Greens in the seat count at best. I could see maybe a few Liberals crossing the floor to something like this too, but not enough to make a meaningful impact.

I wouldn't be surprised if such an attempt is made, but this party would have limited growth potential. Let's bear in mind the following sets of numbers:

According to a June 24 Mainstreet poll, 16% of Conservatives would never consider supporting Pierre Poilievre. The same number is 54% for Charest, for context.

According to a June 13 Angus Reid poll, 16% of 2021 LPC voters disapprove of the Trudeau government, only 4% saying "strongly disapprove".

This would be the demographic of a Charest-style party, but even then, fractionally. There's no guarantee that the 16% of Tories who said they would "never back Poilievre" would actually vote for a splitter party. For example, there were plenty of GOPers in 2016 and Dems in 2020 who hated Trump and Biden respectively during the primaries, most of whom went on to stick to the party line in the general. Many anti-Poilievre Tories will also stick with the party, though of course, not all. But even then, those Tories who decide not to vote CPC under PP won't universally go to the new centrist party, some would strategically vote Liberal instead.

As for the 16% of Liberals who disapprove of Trudeau, again, the same thing - but even more complicated. Not all dissatisfied Liberals would vote for another party. Among those 2021 Liberal voters who disapprove of Trudeau and are not going to vote Liberal, not all would go for a PC reincarnation party, they could be critical of Trudeau from the left and looking at the NDP/BQ/GPC instead. Hell, there are even weird cases like me, who actually voted LPC in 2021 (begrudgingly, out of residual brand loyalty more than anything else) but now back the CPC and Poilievre.

So in other words, the pool of voters for such a party is already pretty small, and even within that pool, realistically they would only get fractional support.