2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Poirot]

Pierre Poilievre has sold 311,958 memberships and numbers by province are:

NL 2,582
PEI 1,322
NS 6,411
NB 6,210
QC 25,453
ON 118,996
MB 12,363
SK15,333
AB 71,759
BC 50,709
Terr 818

[brucejoel99]

Pierre Poilievre has sold 311,958 memberships and numbers by province are:

NL 2,582
PEI 1,322
NS 6,411
NB 6,210
QC 25,453
ON 118,996
MB 12,363
SK15,333
AB 71,759
BC 50,709
Terr 818

~983 per riding in ON & ~1,207 in BC. Damn. Also notable, ~2,111 per riding in AB, & just ~326 in QC. If PP is taking ON & BC, then he may very well be coronated on the 1st ballot after all: >35% of all points up for grabs in this leadership race are in ON, & PP claims to have signed-up as many members there alone as 80% of what Brown claims to have signed-up across the entire country. (And, if the reports are true & over 600K CPC members are expected to be eligible, then I don't think either PP or Brown are lying about their membership sale numbers, but PP just sold a lot more thanks to people buying them directly through his website, & these numbers wouldn't even be counting those who probably support him but just didn't sign up through his website, so he actually may have the support of even more members than he claims to have; also notable, for being rather sus, is that neither Charest nor Brown have yet to release their numbers by province).

Of course, this is all predicated on the assumption that these numbers are even remotely accurate. What I'm interested to see now are the final numbers published by the CPC once they finish vetting the hundreds-of-thousands of membership forms still awaiting processing (way more than in either 2020 or 2017), as they'll give us the best sense of just where this race might be headed at the end of the day. Nevertheless, there's still more than 3 months to go before the polls close on Sept. 7th, not to mention at least a month-&-a-1/2 'til anybody even gets their ballot in the first place, so it may be time for the non-PP candidates who hope that he doesn't - as would be implied by his reported numbers - win on the 1st or 2nd ballot to start vying to be a universal 2nd choice, if at all possible, because stranger things can always happen. Just ask Scheer.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Per CBC, over 600k people are eligible to vote in the CPC election - as in, they bought/renewed their memberships before the deadline, and a ballot will be mailed out to them. In that context, Brown claiming 150k sign-ups and Pierre claiming 300k isn't that outlandish, though I wouldn't be surprised if one or both campaigns are making use of some "accounting tricks" to fudge the numbers.

600k is a ridiculously high number, btw. In the 2020 leadership, it was just around 270k. If you divide 600k by the number of Canadians eligible to vote (those 14 and above, they might have a requirement to be a Canadian citizen but when I got mine there seemed to be no way to check that), you get 2% of eligible Canadians being active CPC members. For the benefit of the yanks among us, this isn't like registering as a Democrat or a Republican, you have to actively pay $15/year and go out of your way to become a party member in Canada. Most Canadians have never been a member of any political party. So the fact that 2% of Canadians are now CPC members is absolutely stunning.

Of course, you'd be happy as a CPC executive seeing membership numbers like that. But because membership drives are mostly the responsibility of individual candidates, you have people signed up by very different candidates for very different reasons. Forget renewing the membership in 2023, there's a good chance that some of these 600k members won't even vote Conservative in the next election.

[Independents for Nihilism]

These are some stunning numbers, to say the least. Either I underestimated PP's appeal, or is is possible that candidates are claiming unaffiliated sign-ups as their own?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Twitter buzz is that Charest is really struggling to sign up members, some are even theorizing that he might drop out before the ballot and give his blessing to Patrick Brown. This might actually be the smarter play if he really is struggling, but again, this is just twitter buzz so who knows how accurate this narrative really is. But boy it would be an embarrassing end to Charest's four-decade career in politics as second fiddle to Patrick Brown

[RogueBeaver]

IDK about that. 2 of Brown's 4 caucus supporters switched to Poilievre this morning. https://twitter.com/DanMuysMP/status/1534188180215410692

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

IDK about that. 2 of Brown's 4 caucus supporters switched to Poilievre this morning. https://twitter.com/DanMuysMP/status/1534188180215410692

It's clear that there are strong divisions within the CPC (as tends to happen when a relatively big-tent party is out of power), but Poilievre is probably the most likely candidate to keep this party united. There will be some bad blood, we can probably count on Ed Fast to retire, and a cold relationship between Pierre and the Quebec caucus (which is overwhelmingly on Équipe Charest), but out of the three main frontrunners, four if you count Lewis, he's the obvious choice for party unity.

If Poilievre's membership sign-up numbers are accurate, then about half of all CPC members eligible to vote in this election were signed up by Poilievre. Lot of unknown variables here of course. Is Poilievre's campaign being honest? Will all those signed up by Pierre vote for him? Etc. But even if the numbers are being inflated, it's not surprising that the politician who has frankly been more prominent in the Trudeau-era conservative movement than the two permanent leaders during this era would be the most popular.

Endorsement Count per Wikipedia:

Aitchison: 1 (1 MP)
Baber: 1 (0 MPs)
Brown: 12 (2 MPs)
Charest: 71 (16 MPs)
Lewis: 14 (10 MPs)
Poilievre: 121 (56 MPs)

[Njall]

IDK about that. 2 of Brown's 4 caucus supporters switched to Poilievre this morning. https://twitter.com/DanMuysMP/status/1534188180215410692

According to this article in the Star, Poilievre's team sold about 1,800 and 1,600 memberships, respectively, in the ridings represented by these two MPs. In both cases, those figures are higher than the total amount of votes cast in the last leadership, so I can understand why they would feel pressure to switch. At the same time, it does make me question how Poilievre's campaign will end up performing relative to Brown/Charest's in more urban and/or non-naturally-CPC ridings, since he sold an average of around 1,000 memberships per riding in Ontario and has clearly far exceeded that average number in more rural and conservative seats, as expected.

[MaxQue]

IDK about that. 2 of Brown's 4 caucus supporters switched to Poilievre this morning. https://twitter.com/DanMuysMP/status/1534188180215410692

Liars and hypocrites. They could at least be honest and say they do it to have a shadow Cabinet position.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm very confident in saying Poilievre will either win on the first ballot, or after Baber's votes get redistributed.

[brucejoel99]

I'm very confident in saying Poilievre will either win on the first ballot, or after Baber's votes get redistributed.

Yeah, by now, he's the only one who can defeat himself for the leadership, & maybe even not then. A good question now is whether he can become PM: can he unite enough socons, moderates, ethnically diverse urban voters, & disaffected Grits-who've-voted-for-the-PCs/CPCs-when-Liberal-fatigue-sets-in behind him in '25, or is support for PP limited to his fan club?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm very confident in saying Poilievre will either win on the first ballot, or after Baber's votes get redistributed.

Yeah, by now, he's the only one who can defeat himself for the leadership, & maybe even not then. A good question now is whether he can become PM: can he unite enough socons, moderates, ethnically diverse urban voters, & disaffected Grits-who've-voted-for-the-PCs/CPCs-when-Liberal-fatigue-sets-in behind him in '25, or is support for PP limited to his fan club?

That's a big question mark. I think chipping into the PPC vote is an electoral advantage Poilievre brings, but even in the 2021 election, CPC+PPC still wouldn't win. The popular vote would be 38% to the Liberals' 32%, but Liberals would be ahead in seats. Except for a few working-class places like Windsor and Northern Ontario, for the most part, PPC votes are heavily concentrated in seats that already vote PPC CPC.

I have a hard time imagining that self-identified Liberals and New Democrats would vote for Poilievre. But that's not necessary, because most people don't really identify with a party or have an especially strong ideology. When the leadership race started the dominant narrative was "Poilievre will dominate the existing base and Charest will try to sign up Quebecers and red tories", but this hasn't really been the case. I mean, if the claims are accurate, then Poilievre has signed up 300k non-CPC members. His style and message clearly resonates with self-identified Conservatives, but there's also a populist/quasi-libertarian appeal to a lot of people who are just frustrated with the status quo and see Poilievre as a change agent. I do think there's a fairly broad demand for what he's selling, and it's not geographically concentrated.

[Benjamin Frank]

From Wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_2022_Conservative_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election

Polievre 57 M.P endorsements
Charest 16
Lewis 10
Brown 2
Aitchison 1
Total: 86

This does not include the 3 M.Ps running for leader.  So, that means 89 of the 119 Conservative M.P have either made an endorsement or are running. The remaining 30 M.Ps are:

1.Tako Van Popta, Langley-Aldergrove Endorsed Pierre Polievre
2.Laila Goodridge, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake
3.Rachel Thomas (nee Harder), Lethbridge
4.Blaine Calkins, Red Deer-Lacombe, Whip/ can not endorse
5.Earl Dreeshen, Red Deer-Mountain View Endorsed Pierre Polievre
6.Ziad Alboultaif, Edmonton-Manning Endorsed Pierre Polievre
7.Kelly McCauley, Edmonton West Endorsed Pierre Polievre
8.Mike Lake, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin
9.Greg McLean, Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan
10.Bob Benzen, Calgary-Heritage
11.Tom Kmiec, Calgary-Shephard
12.Gary Vidal, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
13.Randy Hoback, Prince Albert
14.Warren Steinley, Regina-Lewvan
15.Kevin Waugh, Saskatoon-Grasswood
16.Candice Bergen, Portage-Lisgar, Interim Leader/ can not endorse
17.Raquel Dancho, Kildonan-St. Paul
18.Shelby Kramp Neuman, Hastings-Lennox and Addington
19.Scott Reid, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingstong, Caucus Chair/ can not endorse
20.John Brassard, Barrie-Innisfil, House Leader/ can not endorse
21.Alex Ruff, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
22.Terry Dowdall, Simcoe-Grey
23.Tony Baldinelli, Niagara Falls
24.Ben Lobb, Huron-Bruce
25.Michael Chong, Wellington-Halton Hills
26.Lianne Rood, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
27.Erin O'Toole, Durham
28.Jacques Gourde, Levis-Lotbiniere
29.Luc Berthold, Megantic-L'Erable, Deputy Leader/ can not endorse
30.Chris D'Entremont, West Nova, Deputy Speaker/ can not endorse

Update: Tako Van Popta has endorsed Pierre Polievre
Update: Ziad Alboultaif has endorsed Pierre Polievre
Update: Kelly McCauley has endorsed Pierre Polievre
Update: Earl Dreeshen has endorsed Pierre Polievre

[RogueBeaver]

Brownie all but says he's slinking back to Brampton before the municipal filing deadline in August, as was very predictable. No idea why he thinks Lewis would do better in Toronto than Poilievre tho.

[brucejoel99]

Brownie all but says he's slinking back to Brampton before the municipal filing deadline in August, as was very predictable. No idea why he thinks Lewis would do better in Toronto than Poilievre tho.

He probably doesn't. He probably just sees Lewis as more likely to lose than Poilievre, & so would be willing to run as an MP under the former's leadership presumably because he could then easily pivot to the leadership contest held after her loss, while he wouldn't wanna risk having to end up being an MP assoc. with a relatively more likely PP government (or, perhaps more likely, he wouldn't wanna be stuck in an Opposition that the base/party wants led by PP even after he loses).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Brownie all but says he's slinking back to Brampton before the municipal filing deadline in August, as was very predictable. No idea why he thinks Lewis would do better in Toronto than Poilievre tho.

He probably doesn't. He probably just sees Lewis as more likely to lose than Poilievre, & so would be willing to run as an MP under the former's leadership presumably because he could then easily pivot to the leadership contest held after her loss, while he wouldn't wanna risk having to end up being an MP assoc. with a relatively more likely PP government (or, perhaps more likely, he wouldn't wanna be stuck in an Opposition that the base/party wants led by PP even after he loses).

Yeah the idea that Lewis would do better in Toronto than Poilievre is bonkers, but Brown has to say that. Brown's best bet is to portray Poilievre as terminally unelectable

[Independents for Nihilism]

I can't tell if Poilievre is continuously alienating people (since he's certainly alienating me) or consolidating a stronger and stronger base (for leadership, at least - the general is a whole other kettle of fish). Per https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/06/09/pierre-poilievre-and-marco-mendicino-spar-over-who-asked-for-emergencies-act-to-be-invoked.html - a Liberal cabinet minister calling his rhetoric "disqualifying" is probably a badge of honour for a lot of people, but how many?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I can't tell if Poilievre is continuously alienating people (since he's certainly alienating me) or consolidating a stronger and stronger base (for leadership, at least - the general is a whole other kettle of fish). Per https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/06/09/pierre-poilievre-and-marco-mendicino-spar-over-who-asked-for-emergencies-act-to-be-invoked.html - a Liberal cabinet minister calling his rhetoric "disqualifying" is probably a badge of honour for a lot of people, but how many?

Going after Marco Mendicino isn't going to hurt Poilievre, not with the general public and certainly not with CPC supporters. "Did Mendicino lie by suggesting that the OPS asked for the emergencies act" likely won't be a major question three years from now anyway, but in the current context, I can't imagine any CPC member thinking gee, I was gonna vote for this Pierre fella, but now that he's picking fights with Marco Mendicino, I don't even know anymore

[Independents for Nihilism]

I can't tell if Poilievre is continuously alienating people (since he's certainly alienating me) or consolidating a stronger and stronger base (for leadership, at least - the general is a whole other kettle of fish). Per https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/06/09/pierre-poilievre-and-marco-mendicino-spar-over-who-asked-for-emergencies-act-to-be-invoked.html - a Liberal cabinet minister calling his rhetoric "disqualifying" is probably a badge of honour for a lot of people, but how many?

Going after Marco Mendicino isn't going to hurt Poilievre, not with the general public and certainly not with CPC supporters. "Did Mendicino lie by suggesting that the OPS asked for the emergencies act" likely won't be a major question three years from now anyway, but in the current context, I can't imagine any CPC member thinking gee, I was gonna vote for this Pierre fella, but now that he's picking fights with Marco Mendicino, I don't even know anymore

I see your point, but I just think there's little to be gained by engaging with this stupid controversy of whether the OPS literally asked for the Emergencies Act or just implied it. Granted, anybody with an opinion one way or the other almost certainly has their mind made up on PP as well, but that's exactly it: he may not be turning off his base, but he doesn't seem to be expanding it either. I guess what you mean is that come federal election time, nobody is going to remember what he said on this topic so the point is moot.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I can't tell if Poilievre is continuously alienating people (since he's certainly alienating me) or consolidating a stronger and stronger base (for leadership, at least - the general is a whole other kettle of fish). Per https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/06/09/pierre-poilievre-and-marco-mendicino-spar-over-who-asked-for-emergencies-act-to-be-invoked.html - a Liberal cabinet minister calling his rhetoric "disqualifying" is probably a badge of honour for a lot of people, but how many?

Going after Marco Mendicino isn't going to hurt Poilievre, not with the general public and certainly not with CPC supporters. "Did Mendicino lie by suggesting that the OPS asked for the emergencies act" likely won't be a major question three years from now anyway, but in the current context, I can't imagine any CPC member thinking gee, I was gonna vote for this Pierre fella, but now that he's picking fights with Marco Mendicino, I don't even know anymore

I see your point, but I just think there's little to be gained by engaging with this stupid controversy of whether the OPS literally asked for the Emergencies Act or just implied it. Granted, anybody with an opinion one way or the other almost certainly has their mind made up on PP as well, but that's exactly it: he may not be turning off his base, but he doesn't seem to be expanding it either. I guess what you mean is that come federal election time, nobody is going to remember what he said on this topic so the point is moot.

I think this is red meat for the base, not something meant to broaden the base. You need a balance of both, and I do worry that Poilievre might default to his comfort zone of red meat too much, which alone isn't enough. You need a Harper-esque balance of red meat for the base and salad for the swing voters, or you run the risk of getting Hudak'd.

As for the substance of this Mendicino saga, yes it seems like a really trivial thing, and perhaps it is - but on substance, Marco Mendicino lied to parliament. He said on multiple occasions that the police requested the Emergencies Act, which they didn't. The standard rebuttal from Liberals tends to be "well the Ottawa Police weren't doing their jobs, we had to step in". This is an entirely fair argument (though on its own doesn't satisfy the conditions of the EA), but that misses the point. You can't tell a parliamentary committee that something happened if it really didn't, there's a word for that which starts with an L and rhymes with crying.

[Central Lake]

Also I will go against conventional political discourse and say that I do not think it is possible for an individual to expand the base. Usually a party leader cannot change the party coalition in a meaningful way expect in specific circumstances.

One such circumstance is the party leader being a mayor, premier, or brother of  a mayor. For example Doug Ford or the mayor of Barrie in the 2022 Ontario provincial election.

"Expanding the base" or touching 40% in the popular vote needs to be a collective effort of CPC supporters.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

That said, I take your point on Poilievre more broadly. All politicians have a comfort zone that they default to when pushed into a corner. In his element, Poilievre is a strong communicator. Take this short video for example - again, whether or not you agree with his arguments, I think it's an example of good political communication. It's well-shot, he's clear with his points, and you don't get the impression that this guy was known as an "attack dog", because he actually puts forward his ideas and does it with a sense of optimism and clarity that I think can be very appealing. As a bonus, it contrasts nicely with Trudeau's more stiff style (or Freeland, for that matter).

But when push comes to shove, you get the sense that he has a short fuse, and he defaults to attack dog mode. His base loves it, but that's the kind of thing that you really can't imagine appealing to a broad audience. Again, forgetting the substance of his attacks for a second, the style doesn't come off very "leader-like". Take this short clip from the Canada Strong & Free debate for example, a more high-stakes, high-pressure situation. The question was un-answerable, he effectively backed Charest into a corner that he couldn't get out of...but then Pierre just couldn't help himself, and he kept the "how much" going on for too long. It just got annoying and felt petty after a while.

I won't pretend to be fully objective because I actually do support Pierre, and I understand others might not have the same take on those examples. But this is the worry I have with him. For much of his political career he was Harper's designated attack dog, and you still see this aggressive character trait in him, which could be a serious liability in a general election

[Poirot]

Brian Mulroney made a comment he doesn't recognize himself in the current Conservative party.

In the Léger poll of voting intentions, people who would vote Conservative 44% say Poilievre would make the best leader, 14% Charest, 4% Brown, 3% Lewis. Poilievre also is much prefered by PPC voters. Charest leads Poilievre with Liberals, NDP and Bloc voters.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Michelle Rempel Garner has stepped down from the Brown campaign to run for the UCP leadership.


Lol. Something something sinking ship. What are the odds that MRG renounces her endorsement for Brown and goes over to Poilievre?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Brian Mulroney made a comment he doesn't recognize himself in the current Conservative party.

Makes sense honestly. Reform Party was founded because many western Conservatives didn't see themselves in Brian Mulroney's PC Party, and the modern CPC inherits Reform traditions more than PC. Poilievre I would say is like neo-Reform, he inherits that ideology but positions it in a more contemporary context. So in a way, he's one more degree separated from Mulroney than even Harper was. Idk about Mulroney, but Kim Campbell will definitely endorse, maybe even campaign for the Liberals when Poilievre becomes leader.