2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[brucejoel99]

How well is Browns ethenic machine stratagey working ?

Hard to say until Q2 numbers come out. Q1 numbers suggested that it was not working at all, but now there's more of a push to get memberships out, so we'll have to see.

I think that Poilievre is still the frontrunner, but people might really be underestimating Brown's ability to sign-up members & get them to vote. He's literally in multiple cities everyday. This is the same guy who entered the 2015 PC leadership race that was supposed to be a Christine Elliott-coronation, only for him to win with 61.8% of the vote because he signed-up an insane amount of new members. He brought the PCs back from the dead after more than a decade & re-built the provincial machine that's Doug's today. He really shouldn't be under-estimated. Hell, Conservative MPs were informed last week that membership sales are headed toward 400K, a marked jump from the 2020 leadership campaign that saw ~269K signed-up. That's a record number of CPC membership sign-ups so far, & I won't be at all surprised if a sh*tton came from Brown.

[RogueBeaver]

It depends on whether they were sold outside BC and ON.

[brucejoel99]

It depends on whether they were sold outside BC and ON.

Yep. More specifically, what such a grassroots win of the CPC leadership really ultimately requires, at its core, is just an organization that can create votes in ridings, the execution of which - even if done masterfully - basically amounts to an impossible-to-accurately-poll, ultimate retail campaign that can't be properly understood from afar 'til it's already occurred since you can't understand a thing about what's really going on unless you're literally on the ground. What he needs to really focus on is signing-up new members in ridings that have hitherto had small membership numbers, because it's those riding-by-riding wins that are ultimately critical in these point-based races (see: O'Toole's QC performance in 2020; Brown better pray that his opposition to Bill 21 didn't kill his chances of sign-ups &, thus, resultant votes there).

[Independents for Nihilism]

I see the membership surge cutting one of two ways: either Brown has successfully mobilized suburbanites and the fabled ethnic vote (though it remains to be seen if his vote distribution would be efficient enough), or the people going to Poilievre's rallies are in fact some hitherto-unntapped blue collar mass that may have been non-voters or PPC voters or Tory voters who just weren't registered, spurred on by affordability messaging and wanting their to move their money into crypto so the big bad government can't freeze their bank accounts, or whatever the conventional wisdom is these days. Considering membership is going to, what, double? It's in all likelihood some combination of the two.  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

How well is Browns ethenic machine stratagey working ?

Hard to say until Q2 numbers come out. Q1 numbers suggested that it was not working at all, but now there's more of a push to get memberships out, so we'll have to see.

I think that Poilievre is still the frontrunner, but people might really be underestimating Brown's ability to sign-up members & get them to vote. He's literally in multiple cities everyday. This is the same guy who entered the 2015 PC leadership race that was supposed to be a Christine Elliott-coronation, only for him to win with 61.8% of the vote because he signed-up an insane amount of new members. He brought the PCs back from the dead after more than a decade & re-built the provincial machine that's Doug's today. He really shouldn't be under-estimated. Hell, Conservative MPs were informed last week that membership sales are headed toward 400K, a marked jump from the 2020 leadership campaign that saw ~269K signed-up. That's a record number of CPC membership sign-ups so far, & I won't be at all surprised if a sh*tton came from Brown.

There's a problem with comparing 2015 PCPO Brown with 2022 CPC Brown. The way he upset Christine Elliott wasn't just by courting ethnic voters, it was by building an ethnic-socon coalition. He abandoned the socons as PC leader, and he's making no effort to win them back, so one leg of his two-legged stool is missing. And as far as signing up people goes, I imagine Charest and Poilievre are doing pretty well on that front too. The only numbers we have are about a month old, but check this out:

Conservative leadership fundraising info is out. Bryan Bregeut has released rough projections based on it.



It's a 75/25 weighted average of # of donors/total raised. If you think total donors is all that matters, bump Lewis up and Charest down. If you value total fundraised do the opposite.

Either way if fundraising data is at all predictive, Poillievre should have an easy win.

Also as a noted Patrick Brown hater: LOL!

As of May 04 anyway, Brown was struggling. The numbers released by the party suggests that he had raised a decent amount of money, but from a small number of donors who seemed to give amounts close to the limit. Also, he raised the $300k after Poilievre, Lewis, Charest, and even Baber. So nothing about those figures suggest some kind of strong grassroots campaign. Maybe Brown started picking up more members over May - he better hope so!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Caucus endorsements are also worth keeping in mind. While some endorsements are personal or ideological, generally MPs like to endorse whoever they see as the most likely to win the leadership, in hopes of getting a nice position from the new leader. Poilievre is way ahead in caucus endorsements, and some of them seem strategic. For example, Jasraj Singh Hallan (Calgary-Forest Lawn) endorsed MacKay in 2020 and Pierre in 2022. You would think a Mackay supporter would prefer Charest, or for that matter, a Poilievre supporter would have supported O'Toole ("true blue" era O'Toole, at least). For Mr Hallan, a relatively new and young MP, I'm guessing his endorsement calculation is mainly about currying favours.

Per Wikipedia (not sure how up-to-date this data is), Poilievre has 54 caucus endorsers, Charest has 16, Lewis has 8. Brown? 4. Hell I'll name them because the list is so short: Muys, Rempel Garner, Seeback, Shipley.

Caucus members tend to have a better pulse on where the party is than outside observers, and if the endorsements are anything to go by, the CPC caucus is not feeling the incentive to go over to Brown.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1532369916812206080

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1532369916812206080

He really is doing a great job of writing attack ads for Liberals.  Will bill just refers to covid vaccine mandates, it appears like he opposes all and I think even many who oppose covid vaccine mandates support them for more deadly diseases like Polio, Measles Mumps etc.

[MaxQue]

Will be really bad for him if the simian pox gets worse.

[Benjamin Frank]

Caucus endorsements are also worth keeping in mind. While some endorsements are personal or ideological, generally MPs like to endorse whoever they see as the most likely to win the leadership, in hopes of getting a nice position from the new leader. Poilievre is way ahead in caucus endorsements, and some of them seem strategic. For example, Jasraj Singh Hallan (Calgary-Forest Lawn) endorsed MacKay in 2020 and Pierre in 2022. You would think a Mackay supporter would prefer Charest, or for that matter, a Poilievre supporter would have supported O'Toole ("true blue" era O'Toole, at least). For Mr Hallan, a relatively new and young MP, I'm guessing his endorsement calculation is mainly about currying favours.

Per Wikipedia (not sure how up-to-date this data is), Poilievre has 54 caucus endorsers, Charest has 16, Lewis has 8. Brown? 4. Hell I'll name them because the list is so short: Muys, Rempel Garner, Seeback, Shipley.

Caucus members tend to have a better pulse on where the party is than outside observers, and if the endorsements are anything to go by, the CPC caucus is not feeling the incentive to go over to Brown.

Obviously not being a Conservative insider I don't know if that wiki page is complete, but I do know it's both regularly and recently updated. I think it would be ridiculous to say that 'Jean Charest is closing the gap' between himself and Polievre, but Charest has received 4 of the last seven endorsements with Polievre getting 2 more and Leslyn Lewis one.

It should also be noted that 83 M.Ps endorsing is even more than 83 out of 119 because the endorsements don't include the 3 current M.Ps running, and the interim leader and deputy leader aren't allowed to endorse anybody and I believe there are a few others not allowed to endorse especially the caucus chair and the chief whip.  Also, it's highly unlikely that Erin O'Toole will endorse anybody and it's unlikely any of the candidates would want his endorsement. There is one more as well who is not able to or is unlikely to endorse who I forget right now, maybe the House Leader.

I asked here before if the chairs of the provincial Federal Parliamentary caucuses were allowed to endorse and nobody replied, but, leaving them out, that adds up to 9 M.Ps who can't or won't endorse. So, thus far, 83 of the remaining 110 Conservative M.Ps have made an endorsement (which is roughly 75%)

[Central Lake]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

His strategy with visible minorities this time around isn't so much appealing to their often socially conservative views, just more generally networking and addressing niche concerns that you rarely see white politicians do. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, among his promises are things like increasing funding for cricket in Canada and establishing a permanent embassy in Nepal. Like, very specific concerns that bear little relevance to the CPC leadership. I don't know enough about visible minority/immigrant communities (really, South Asians as that seems to be the bulk of his strategy) to know how effective it would be, but this isn't 2015 Patrick Brown

[Central Lake]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

His strategy with visible minorities this time around isn't so much appealing to their often socially conservative views, just more generally networking and addressing niche concerns that you rarely see white politicians do. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, among his promises are things like increasing funding for cricket in Canada and establishing a permanent embassy in Nepal. Like, very specific concerns that bear little relevance to the CPC leadership. I don't know enough about visible minority/immigrant communities (really, South Asians as that seems to be the bulk of his strategy) to know how effective it would be, but this isn't 2015 Patrick Brown

That is something I can very much get on board with.

[2952-0-0]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

His strategy with visible minorities this time around isn't so much appealing to their often socially conservative views, just more generally networking and addressing niche concerns that you rarely see white politicians do. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, among his promises are things like increasing funding for cricket in Canada and establishing a permanent embassy in Nepal. Like, very specific concerns that bear little relevance to the CPC leadership. I don't know enough about visible minority/immigrant communities (really, South Asians as that seems to be the bulk of his strategy) to know how effective it would be, but this isn't 2015 Patrick Brown

But, a strategy of pandering to niche demographics will risk accusations of intellectual bankruptcy. It's what sunk Andrew Scheer, after all.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown claims to have signed up 150k members, no idea if that's true or what overall numbers are.

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1532765687940145152

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If it's Tue, he's basically won.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If it's Tue, he's basically won.

It wouldn't be the first time that the presumptive frontrunner was upset in a Trudeau-era leadership race...or second. It would be third!

[DC Al Fine]

Will note that it was revealed after Brown resigned from the Ontario PC's, that he had pretty blatantly overstated how many members he had signed up.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I have to wonder what the benefit of overstating your membership numbers is. Trying to scare other candidates? All I can see happening is it driving down your turnout since people might think their support isn't needed, much like runaway polls.

[brucejoel99]

Damn, I've seen this one before. There'll be no better proof of a simulation than if Jun. 2025 rolls around & sees a scandal-induced Patrick Brown resignation, which leads to Premier Doug Ford winning a quickie leadership race, & PM Ford in Oct.

[Benjamin Frank]

This is a surprise to me. Rob Moore endorses Dr Leslyn Lewis.
https://tj.news/telegraph-journal/101889033

Dr Lewis picks up two M.P endorsements in the last two days, with failed leadership contender B.C M.P Marc Dalton endorsing her yesterday.

[brucejoel99]

Will note that it was revealed after Brown resigned from the Ontario PC's, that he had pretty blatantly overstated how many members he had signed up.

Wait, weren't both the criminal & party probes into that (namely, in only 1 Hamilton(?) riding, IIRC?) dropped after the alleger withdrew his charges?

[DC Al Fine]

Will note that it was revealed after Brown resigned from the Ontario PC's, that he had pretty blatantly overstated how many members he had signed up.

Wait, weren't both the criminal & party probes into that (namely, in only 1 Hamilton(?) riding, IIRC?) dropped after the alleger withdrew his charges?

Seperate issue. You're talking about a criminal probe that he rigged a nomination. I'm talking about him lying about how many members he signed up for the party provincewide.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As a Sri Lankan born person I will say that while visible minorities are by no means monolithically socially conservative, especially in CPC/OPC circles there is a strong overlap between minorities and socons.

Brown burnt all his bridges with social conservatives with sex-ed and other things he did. Therefore, it would be very difficult almost impossible for Patrick Brown replicate his 2015 leadership surprise win.

His strategy with visible minorities this time around isn't so much appealing to their often socially conservative views, just more generally networking and addressing niche concerns that you rarely see white politicians do. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, among his promises are things like increasing funding for cricket in Canada and establishing a permanent embassy in Nepal. Like, very specific concerns that bear little relevance to the CPC leadership. I don't know enough about visible minority/immigrant communities (really, South Asians as that seems to be the bulk of his strategy) to know how effective it would be, but this isn't 2015 Patrick Brown

That is something I can very get on board with.

Lol fair enough, but it's thing like this that worry me. I'm sure many in the South Asian community would love to see better cricket infrastructure in Canada, but try telling the average Conservative voter that the government wants to spend their tax money on a sport they've never watched.

Of course this is a very minor and trivial issue, but it's representative of an inherent problem with the whole Patrick Brown strategy of signing up new members through promises that don't align with, and sometimes brazenly contradict (his views on Israel, for example), the ideology of the party he wants to lead.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Damn, I've seen this one before. There'll be no better proof of a simulation than if Jun. 2025 rolls around & sees a scandal-induced Patrick Brown resignation, which leads to Premier Doug Ford winning a quickie leadership race, & PM Ford in Oct.

Way to put the "nation" in "Ford nation"