2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
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Author Topic: 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election  (Read 38108 times)
The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #325 on: April 25, 2022, 06:49:20 PM »

We're getting pretty close to April 29, the deadline to submit the $300k in donations and get verified as candidates. So far, only three have been verified. I'd be pretty surprised if Brown fails to make it, but as things stand right now, only Poilievre, Charest and Lewis are verified candidates.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #326 on: April 28, 2022, 10:10:27 AM »

Poillievre has garnered his first Quebec caucus endorsement; Pierre-Paul Hus
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #327 on: April 28, 2022, 10:12:43 AM »

Tomorrow is the deadline to pay the registration fee and the candidates on the ballot are Baber, Brown, Charest, Lewis, and Poillievre.

Is anyone else close to getting on the ballot?
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #328 on: April 28, 2022, 12:52:21 PM »

Tomorrow is the deadline to pay the registration fee and the candidates on the ballot are Baber, Brown, Charest, Lewis, and Poillievre.

Is anyone else close to getting on the ballot?

If anyone else makes it, it's probably Aitchison. As of April 15, he was $100k from meeting the cut-off. This means he raised $200k in a month (he announced on March 16), so really if he's been able to keep up that pace of raising $50k/week, he should be able to make it. Although it could be the case that he raised big bucks early on from loyal supporters/locals/Northern Ontarians, but struggled to keep up beyond that. We'll find out tomorrow.

Other than Aitchison, my guess is no. Dalton is at least an MP but nobody knows who he is, Alleslev is more well-known but lost her seat, is a floor-crosser, and announced late. As for Grant Abraham, Joseph Bourgault, Joel Etienne and Bobby Singh...I mean, did anyone ever think they had a shot at raising $300k?
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Njall
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« Reply #329 on: April 28, 2022, 03:09:33 PM »

Tomorrow is the deadline to pay the registration fee and the candidates on the ballot are Baber, Brown, Charest, Lewis, and Poillievre.

Is anyone else close to getting on the ballot?

If anyone else makes it, it's probably Aitchison. As of April 15, he was $100k from meeting the cut-off. This means he raised $200k in a month (he announced on March 16), so really if he's been able to keep up that pace of raising $50k/week, he should be able to make it. Although it could be the case that he raised big bucks early on from loyal supporters/locals/Northern Ontarians, but struggled to keep up beyond that. We'll find out tomorrow.

Other than Aitchison, my guess is no. Dalton is at least an MP but nobody knows who he is, Alleslev is more well-known but lost her seat, is a floor-crosser, and announced late. As for Grant Abraham, Joseph Bourgault, Joel Etienne and Bobby Singh...I mean, did anyone ever think they had a shot at raising $300k?

I recall seeing on Twitter yesterday that Aitchison's campaign was telling supporters that they were only $25,000 away from being able to pay the fee. On Tuesday, they were saying that they were $50,000 away, so it seems as though they were able to cut that in half over a 24-hour period. Based on that, I'd imagine that he'll narrowly make the cut.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #330 on: April 28, 2022, 03:21:50 PM »

Tomorrow is the deadline to pay the registration fee and the candidates on the ballot are Baber, Brown, Charest, Lewis, and Poillievre.

Is anyone else close to getting on the ballot?

If anyone else makes it, it's probably Aitchison. As of April 15, he was $100k from meeting the cut-off. This means he raised $200k in a month (he announced on March 16), so really if he's been able to keep up that pace of raising $50k/week, he should be able to make it. Although it could be the case that he raised big bucks early on from loyal supporters/locals/Northern Ontarians, but struggled to keep up beyond that. We'll find out tomorrow.

Other than Aitchison, my guess is no. Dalton is at least an MP but nobody knows who he is, Alleslev is more well-known but lost her seat, is a floor-crosser, and announced late. As for Grant Abraham, Joseph Bourgault, Joel Etienne and Bobby Singh...I mean, did anyone ever think they had a shot at raising $300k?

I recall seeing on Twitter yesterday that Aitchison's campaign was telling supporters that they were only $25,000 away from being able to pay the fee. On Tuesday, they were saying that they were $50,000 away, so it seems as though they were able to cut that in half over a 24-hour period. Based on that, I'd imagine that he'll narrowly make the cut.

Oof yeah, those are very narrow margins though. Imagine he misses the cut by like $100 lol.

I really hope Aitchison gets in...maybe I should donate to him then, but I'm not sure I want to get a CPC membership or donate to candidates. Aitchison is a no-hope candidate, but I like that he's a moderate who understands that you can't win the leadership of a party by telling the supporters that they're wrong and dumb and should shut up. Plus he has good ideas on increasing housing supply, ending supply management (unelectable but good IMO), etc
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Njall
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« Reply #331 on: April 28, 2022, 05:15:12 PM »

I just saw on Twitter that Aitchison is verified now.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #332 on: April 29, 2022, 05:44:14 PM »

Dalton is also out.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #333 on: April 29, 2022, 07:36:16 PM »

It seems like Brown and Lewis are going for the "directly target niche groups" strategy rather than going for the broader public. Lewis was the first to reach that $300k threshold, but she's made basically no media appearances (which I guess makes sense for her, the so-con base is probably better reached through mailing lists and church groups than mainstream media).

Brown has been completely invisible. Like, not a single media appearance. The articles I've read are mostly something to do with him networking with some South Asian group or another (the most recent was him promising to open a consulate in Nepal...I don't imagine Nepalese-Canadians are that big of a voting bloc). I'm not dismissing that strategy at all, getting in with tight-knit communities can be a major boost in an environment like this, but surely at some point you have to get out of this bubble and appeal to a bigger tent.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #334 on: April 29, 2022, 07:43:09 PM »

I went to Leslyn Lewis's speech in Halifax tonight. She got a better turnout than I expected (and much better than Charest did when he came here). Was quite impressed.

Not at all related to her politics, but she's also much taller than I expected Tongue

It's pretty impressive that she's a rookie MP and was a complete nobody until about two years ago, and has now basically asserted herself as the de facto leader of the CPC's so-con wing.

As a counterargument, she was the standard-bearer of that wing of the CPC when she ran in the last leadership election, at which point she was not an MP. Her being a first-term MP seems irrelevant here; her prominence has nothing to do with her parliamentary standing.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #335 on: April 29, 2022, 08:18:13 PM »

I went to Leslyn Lewis's speech in Halifax tonight. She got a better turnout than I expected (and much better than Charest did when he came here). Was quite impressed.

Not at all related to her politics, but she's also much taller than I expected Tongue

It's pretty impressive that she's a rookie MP and was a complete nobody until about two years ago, and has now basically asserted herself as the de facto leader of the CPC's so-con wing.

As a counterargument, she was the standard-bearer of that wing of the CPC when she ran in the last leadership election, at which point she was not an MP. Her being a first-term MP seems irrelevant here; her prominence has nothing to do with her parliamentary standing.

True, but it was never clear that she would be the standard-bearer until about the end of the 2020 CPC leadership. She emerged as a stronger candidate than Sloan, but that wasn't a high bar to cross. But this time around, she's emerged very early on as a serious candidate - maybe not to actually win the leadership, but to play a leading role within caucus.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #336 on: May 04, 2022, 05:44:55 AM »

Conservative leadership fundraising info is out. Bryan Bregeut has released rough projections based on it.



It's a 75/25 weighted average of # of donors/total raised. If you think total donors is all that matters, bump Lewis up and Charest down. If you value total fundraised do the opposite.

Either way if fundraising data is at all predictive, Poillievre should have an easy win.

Also as a noted Patrick Brown hater: LOL!
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #337 on: May 04, 2022, 11:40:18 AM »

Conservative leadership fundraising info is out. Bryan Bregeut has released rough projections based on it.



It's a 75/25 weighted average of # of donors/total raised. If you think total donors is all that matters, bump Lewis up and Charest down. If you value total fundraised do the opposite.

Either way if fundraising data is at all predictive, Poillievre should have an easy win.

Also as a noted Patrick Brown hater: LOL!

Good god, Patrick Brown at 2%?? He's a guy I'd expect to underperform in polls but overperform when extrapolating from donors/memberships, not the opposite
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #338 on: May 04, 2022, 05:39:40 PM »

The Roe v Wade fallout in the US is bad news for the CPC. Any time abortion enters the headlines, the Conservative brand suffers. Most leadership candidates had the foresight to address it immediately to make their position clear:

Brown and Aitchison put out the most firmly pro-choice messages, saying they would guarantee access to abortion. Poilievre says he wouldn't introduce or pass laws restricting abortion, but unclear on private member's bills. Charest interestingly seems to have landed to the right of Poilievre here - also wouldn't restrict abortion, but specifically says he would allow PMB's. Baber took essentially the same stance as Charest, but more forceful about the right of MPs to introduce bills. Lewis refused to comment on Roe but stuck to her line about "banning coerced abortions, sex-selective abortions", etc.

It seems that the abortion debate in this race will be more about tone than policy, with the exception of Lewis who is of course taking a distinctly pro-life stance (but even then, much more watered down than the so-con views on abortion in the Reform days).
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Estrella
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« Reply #339 on: May 05, 2022, 03:22:34 AM »

Charest interestingly seems to have landed to the right of Poilievre here - also wouldn't restrict abortion, but specifically says he would allow PMB's. Baber took essentially the same stance as Charest, but more forceful about the right of MPs to introduce bills.

We probably won't find out the answer, but I wonder if this is a pragmatic move to reach out to the radical wing of the party, or a reflection of a genuinely held opinion. For all the stereotypes, Quebec can be a pretty socon place: after Henry Morgentaler was awarded the Order of Canada, 7 other recipients returned it in protest, 5 of which were francophone Quebecers.
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Njall
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« Reply #340 on: May 05, 2022, 01:26:59 PM »

The first debate will be hosted by the Canada Strong and Free Network at their annual networking conference tonight at 5:30PM Eastern Time. It's not an official debate, but 5 of the 6 candidates (everyone but Brown) will be in attendance. Apparently it will be livestreamed on the Canada Strong and Free Network's Facebook page.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #341 on: May 05, 2022, 02:10:23 PM »

Charest interestingly seems to have landed to the right of Poilievre here - also wouldn't restrict abortion, but specifically says he would allow PMB's. Baber took essentially the same stance as Charest, but more forceful about the right of MPs to introduce bills.

We probably won't find out the answer, but I wonder if this is a pragmatic move to reach out to the radical wing of the party, or a reflection of a genuinely held opinion. For all the stereotypes, Quebec can be a pretty socon place: after Henry Morgentaler was awarded the Order of Canada, 7 other recipients returned it in protest, 5 of which were francophone Quebecers.

I don't think that's a representative sample size though. Quebec in general is not a socon place at all (in the Anglo-American sense, of course they can be very socially conservative in other ways). Something like abortion though, not at all. The Quebec Conservative caucus is unanimously pro-choice, and "religious right" obsessions like abortion don't play well to a province that sees secularism as its defining characteristic.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #342 on: May 05, 2022, 02:31:14 PM »

What's interesting about Quebec secularism is that it's still a society that overwhelmingly identifies with Catholicism, yet frowns upon religious expression. In terms of self-identification, Alberta has more irreligious people than Quebec, yet Alberta's political culture is far more friendly to explicit religious expression than Quebec's. In other words, Quebec Christians are mostly lapsed Catholics, and Alberta Christians, while smaller in proportion, are more vocally religious.

One example of Quebec's secularism is its relatively low rate of marriage. 34% of Quebecers are married, the lowest of any province, while 22% live as common-law couples, the highest of any province. Nunavut has an even lower rate of marriage and higher rate of common-law than Quebec, interestingly. Many Quebecers see marriage as an old religious obsession that has no real benefits over living common-law. This is basically true anywhere, but outside of Quebec it's still a social norm that long-term relationships eventually lead to marriage.

So it's kind of interesting, Quebec is the most Christian province after NL and PEI in terms of self-identification, and by far the most Catholic - yet their social attitudes are probably the least "Christian" of anywhere in Canada.
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Poirot
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« Reply #343 on: May 05, 2022, 09:53:04 PM »

Quote
I don't think that's a representative sample size though. Quebec in general is not a socon place at all (in the Anglo-American sense, of course they can be very socially conservative in other ways). Something like abortion though, not at all.

Media doesn't like pro-life. The Journal de Montréal on the front page put the pictures of 39 MPs who are against abortions, a third of the Conservative caucus.
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Continential
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« Reply #344 on: May 11, 2022, 08:48:28 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2022, 06:08:10 AM by ‎Ishan »

The debate has been a sh**tshow with the moderator making me feel bad for Poilievre and I think Baber was the winner.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #345 on: May 12, 2022, 01:38:04 AM »

The debate has been a sh**tshow with the moderator making me feel bad with Poilievre and I think Baber was the winner.

Oh, did they bring back Shachi Kurl?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #346 on: May 12, 2022, 05:43:27 AM »

Total mess. Bad format, bad moderator, bad questions, and I'm certain they didn't do a soundcheck before going live.

The debate has been a sh**tshow with the moderator making me feel bad with Poilievre and I think Baber was the winner.

Oh, did they bring back Shachi Kurl?

Nah they got some retired news anchor to do it.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #347 on: May 12, 2022, 09:23:16 AM »

I managed to catch bits of the debate, and yes it was ridiculous. The weird sad trombone sound effect, in a political debate, seriously? And some of the personal questions, I mean, they might have well have asked candidates what their favourite ice cream topping is. God, why are we as a country so bad at political debates?

Anyway, the verdict seems to be that Aitchison and Baber did well. They're both getting a lot more traction than expected, because they seem like real humans. Poilievre is good at his shtick, but he's way too stiff on the debate stage. Brown's thing seems pretty much limited to his mayoralty of Brampton. Lewis stumbled a lot, and Charest is a good speaker but has a way of opening himself up to being Pierre's punching bag.
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DL
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« Reply #348 on: May 12, 2022, 10:49:17 AM »

I wonder how it makes Poilievre look that he has been promoting crypto-currencies like Bitcoin and claiming they are a "hedge against inflation"...at a time when all these crypto currencies are collapsing in value and people are calling this week "crypto crash week"?
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #349 on: May 13, 2022, 09:10:47 AM »

I wonder how it makes Poilievre look that he has been promoting crypto-currencies like Bitcoin and claiming they are a "hedge against inflation"...at a time when all these crypto currencies are collapsing in value and people are calling this week "crypto crash week"?

Well it doesn't make him look great. Crypto is a perfectly fine speculative investment if you know what you're doing, but the "hedge against inflation" thing was always a bit nonsensical, because crypto is far more volatile than fiat. I suspect he'll start taking it easier on the bitcoin bro strategy.
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