2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[King of Kensington]

Lol, can't believe Charest himself escaped my mind. I often forget that the PCs were still around post-1993...so did many voters at the time too, I suppose.

1997 election was interesting.  Charest had a right-wing economic program that tried to appeal to Reform voters (unsuccessfully).  But the Liberals lost ground due to unemployment benefit cuts in the Maritimes and both the PCs and NDP gained.  A lot of Red Tories got elected who didn't really subscribe to the economic orthodoxy of the leadership.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Libertarian is a clunky word to describe what Poillievre is doing. It conjures up images of that guy who turned himself blue from eating sliver and Gary Johnson being booed for supporting drivers licenses. Besides "get the government out of _______" or "scrap the _______ tax" have been bog standard conservative talking points for decades. It's hardly a uniquely libertarian thing.

I'd work backwards from Laddicus' point: Poillievre is trying to appeal to young people, particularly younger men because he (or his staff) feel they have been underserved by other parties/factions and could be won over. Therefore he talks about making it easier to build homes, or use crypto because younger men like those things and they work with his existing political identity/base.

I agree that Poilievre isn't really a "libertarian" in the proper sense of the word, but the emphasis of his message is on that side of conservative thought, more so than O'Toole, Scheer, and Harper. He's making "freedom" the central aspect of his message, which isn't very common in Canada. I think you're right that Poilievre and his team are working backwards, with the hope that this kind of messaging can kill two birds with one stone - grow the base by appealing to disenchanted young people, and bring PPC voters back into the fold.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Libertarian is a clunky word to describe what Poillievre is doing. It conjures up images of that guy who turned himself blue from eating sliver and Gary Johnson being booed for supporting drivers licenses. Besides "get the government out of _______" or "scrap the _______ tax" have been bog standard conservative talking points for decades. It's hardly a uniquely libertarian thing.

I'd work backwards from Laddicus' point: Poillievre is trying to appeal to young people, particularly younger men because he (or his staff) feel they have been underserved by other parties/factions and could be won over. Therefore he talks about making it easier to build homes, or use crypto because younger men like those things and they work with his existing political identity/base.

The issue is that things like crypto are pretty fringe and popular among a demographic unlikely to have membership to vote in the leadership election while allowing your opponents to paint you as some sort of kook

[adma]

And as I indicated, trends like this also reflect the pattern.

https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-mass-disappearance-of-men-from-college/

Almost like, stuff like crypto investment standing as proof for its champions that "college isn't necessary".

[King of Kensington]

Seems like the "bitcoin" strategy exacerbates the problem of attracting votes that don't deliver seats.  In the Prairies where Cons already dominate perhaps it taps into the social credit history.  And maybe some dudebros in Spadina-Fort York will like it, but not enough votes to make the seat competitive.

In some ways it's like Jagmeet's "Tiktok stardom" strategy.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

And as I indicated, trends like this also reflect the pattern.

https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-mass-disappearance-of-men-from-college/

Almost like, stuff like crypto investment standing as proof for its champions that "college isn't necessary".

How many non-college voters are there going to be in even the conservative leadership election ?

[adma]

And as I indicated, trends like this also reflect the pattern.

https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-mass-disappearance-of-men-from-college/

Almost like, stuff like crypto investment standing as proof for its champions that "college isn't necessary".

How many non-college voters are there going to be in even the conservative leadership election ?

It isn't about those who are going to vote in the leadership election, it's about those who are promised to be part of the general-election big tent.  Sort of like Jagmeet and hip ethno-millennials (or even PET and boomer flower children).

Four decades ago, it was about a new tribe of ReaganCon; now it's about a new tribe of RoganCon, so to speak.  (And even the appeal of Ontario's "hash dealer dropout" premier is premised on this.)

And they're *very* prominent on social media, because, well...social media is their ivory-tower proxy.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And as I indicated, trends like this also reflect the pattern.

https://hechingerreport.org/the-pandemic-is-speeding-up-the-mass-disappearance-of-men-from-college/

Almost like, stuff like crypto investment standing as proof for its champions that "college isn't necessary".

How many non-college voters are there going to be in even the conservative leadership election ?

I'm assuming we're using the American definition of "college" (in Canada, that usually refers to trade schools, "university" is the term normally used).

I believe about half of Canadians don't have either a college or uni degree. This is a less politically active group, but trends indicate this cohort becoming more attracted to conservative politics, so it probably balances out. Additionally, older voters are more likely to participate in leadership elections, and also more likely to not have a degree - but also more likely to have fond memories of Jean Charest, and less drawn to someone like Poilievre, let alone understand Bitcoin.

I think Poilievre's play is to expand the base by persuading younger voters - typically men, largely without a university degree, and if they do, more business/STEM oriented than arts/social sciences - to buy CPC memberships. The existing CPC base might not care much about crypto or whatever, but it's not like he's running a single-issue campaign. Most of what Poilievre believes tracks with the median Conservative member.

[Benjamin Frank]

Per wiki, a senior non profit international aid director and former lawyer named Grant Abraham has thrown his hat into the ring.  Abraham is a Canadian citizen but ran for the U.K Conservative Party in Northern Ireland in 2019.

His campaign website: https://www.canadaspromise.com/

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Per wiki, a senior non profit international aid director and former lawyer named Grant Abraham has thrown his hat into the ring.  Abraham is a Canadian citizen but ran for the U.K Conservative Party in Northern Ireland in 2019.

His campaign website: https://www.canadaspromise.com/

Mentions opposing "globalism" in his announcement video, while his campaign bio boasts about the fact that he has spent most of his adult life working abroad, even running for office in another country. Interesting message there bud.

[Benjamin Frank]

Per wiki, a senior non profit international aid director and former lawyer named Grant Abraham has thrown his hat into the ring.  Abraham is a Canadian citizen but ran for the U.K Conservative Party in Northern Ireland in 2019.

His campaign website: https://www.canadaspromise.com/

Mentions opposing "globalism" in his announcement video, while his campaign bio boasts about the fact that he has spent most of his adult life working abroad, even running for office in another country. Interesting message there bud.

I forgot to mention: I don't know if Grant Abraham will end up making the ballot or not, but I guess it isn't over until the fat lady Abrahams. (sorry)

Or whatver my original line was. I don't pay attention to myself half the time either.

[Continential]

Per wiki, a senior non profit international aid director and former lawyer named Grant Abraham has thrown his hat into the ring.  Abraham is a Canadian citizen but ran for the U.K Conservative Party in Northern Ireland in 2019.

His campaign website: https://www.canadaspromise.com/

Hopefully Trudeau/the Tories calls a general election in 2024 so this guy can stand in two constituencies in two different countries in the same year.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1511410270530322446?s=20&t=Bwfrgt8AX...

Anyway, the clowncar that is forming has seemed to be the most expectedly doomed thing, as expected when O'Toole got kicked out. Weirdly, I think it has formed because everyone expects PP to win, so the competition is for some type of secondary rewards.

Which is also why PP has 'kicked his feet back' so to speak, and is attacking others or talking about issues that arn't red meat. His brand is known, and image already present. He doesn't need to make statements for the masses that might come back to bite him.

[King of Kensington]

How many non-college voters are there going to be in even the conservative leadership election ?

During leadership races a lot of people sign up as "instant members" to support a specific candidate, but don't usually stick around and aren't that interested in the internal affairs of the party.  The Bitcoin strategy may sign up some dudebros without degrees.  I suspect the long-term membership is more educated than those who sign up to support candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some Atlas Forum exclusive data from that poll:

Skippy leads in all regions, even Quebec. Strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Weakest in Manitoba. Charest is strongest in MB & QC, Brown in Ontario, Lewis in MB.  
His support goes down by age (76% among under 35 to 58% for over 65)
More popular among women than men
More popular among college education, less among university educated

Also interesting, we asked how people to rate themselves on a 7 point scale from 1=very left to 7=very right (4 = in the middle)

The mean Conservative supporter is a 4.86
The mean Brown supporter is a 4.87
The mean Charest supporter is a 4.78
The mean Lewis supporter is a 5.53; and
The mean Poilievre supporter is a 4.97

The mean Canadian is a 3.57

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Some Atlas Forum exclusive data from that poll:

Skippy leads in all regions, even Quebec. Strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Weakest in Manitoba. Charest is strongest in MB & QC, Brown in Ontario, Lewis in MB.  
His support goes down by age (76% among under 35 to 58% for over 65)
More popular among women than men
More popular among college education, less among university educated

Also interesting, we asked how people to rate themselves on a 7 point scale from 1=very left to 7=very right (4 = in the middle)

The mean Conservative supporter is a 4.86
The mean Brown supporter is a 4.87
The mean Charest supporter is a 4.78
The mean Lewis supporter is a 5.53; and
The mean Poilievre supporter is a 4.97

The mean Canadian is a 3.57

All the patterns add up, but seeing Lewis at a paltry 6% is surprising (I would have expected higher). She's the only candidate so far to reach the donation cutoff to get authorized for the ballot. That's not to say she's the frontrunner of course, she's known to have a very strong donor network with evangelical groups/churches which is probably how she was able to raise funds so quickly, despite her actual support not being that high.

[King of Kensington]

People are saying don't underestimate Poilievre and making predictions for something 3 years ago is a fool's game, but I'm trying to imagine how he can make major gains in the 905, the Lower Mainland, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  I don't think there's a huge appetite for minimal government libertarianism in Canada.  Doing well in the Prairies and rural Ontario adds nothing to the CPC tally. 

[King of Kensington]

Manitoba has the most socially conservative ridings in Canada, so not surprising Leslyn Lewis doing best among Manitoba Conservatives.

[adma]

Manitoba has the most socially conservative ridings in Canada, so not surprising Leslyn Lewis doing best among Manitoba Conservatives.

Or Skippy doing weakest, if we presume that's plumped in the Leslyn Lewis direction out Steinbach/Winkler way, shadowing the best PPC figures last year.

[King of Kensington]

The PPC showing in Manitoba's Mennonite Bible belt shows how Libertarians and so-cons are aligned in their disdain for moderation or "Red Toryism."

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

People are saying don't underestimate Poilievre and making predictions for something 3 years ago is a fool's game, but I'm trying to imagine how he can make major gains in the 905, the Lower Mainland, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  I don't think there's a huge appetite for minimal government libertarianism in Canada.  Doing well in the Prairies and rural Ontario adds nothing to the CPC tally.  

I agree, it's certainly hard to imagine Poilievre as a change agent who can win over people who voted for Trudeau three times. His personal shortcomings aside, Patrick Brown is probably the most "natural" option to turn the GTA blue, especially this pivotal "Trudeau/Ford voter" bloc.

I think a reasonable case for Poilievre could be made, as follows:

1. The scheduled 2025 election will be exactly ten years after the Liberals entered power. By then, you'll most likely be dealing with a fatigued electorate looking for change - so the fundamental knowledge of Canadian politics that "governments don't get voted in, they get voted out" favours the Tories regardless. To boot, Poilievre would provide a stark contrast to Trudeau and Freeland, in much the same way Trudeau did to Harper, and Ford did to Wynne.

2. Poilievre isn't really an orthodox libertarian running as an unblemished Ayn Rand disciple, nor is he running as a kooky libertarian who thinks driver's licenses are fascism. In fact, he's not really a libertarian at all. His leaning into "small government/reduce bureaucracy" rhetoric is pretty consistent for Tories, even if he emphasizes it more. More than that, he's presenting his ideas as a solution to pocketbook issues, not a matter of ideological dogma. Poilievre argues that his policies are a solution to everyday challenges like inflation and housing, which might actually get people listening.

3. No matter how much or how little you appeal to swing voters, the base must be kept happy. They're your donors, your volunteers, your candidates, your caucus, and in the Tories' case, about one-thirds of the Canadian population. There are some in the Conservative base who dislike Poilievre, but as a recent Abacus poll shows, there are many more who dislike Charest. Compared to his strongest challenger, Poilievre is the least likely to deal with base atrophy - and not only does a divided party exude weakness and dry up the coffers, it forces the leader to run around putting out fires instead of building a campaign machine and taking on the current government.

[mileslunn]

I see Poilievre is a very high gamble strategy.  If approval of Liberal party falls low enough, then good chance he wins as when people are really angry, they tend to favour radical change and someone who is opposite.  But if people just somewhat upset, I see him being a big flop.  Both Mike Harris and Tim Hudak ran on small government platforms similar to Poilievre while Harris won twice but Hudak lost both times.  To be fair Poilievre is a much better campaigner and not as awkward as Hudak but still point of risk. 

Usually small government platforms tend to sell best when public feels government has overshot.  Think Margaret Thatcher, Mike Harris, Gordon Campbell in BC, Bill Bennett also in BC.  Trudeau is definitely more left wing than Chretien/Martin so Poilievre's strategy wouldn't have worked with Harper, but whether Trudeau is left wing enough to get a backlash to elect someone like Poilievre it is tough to say.

Inflation may not be as big an issue by 2025 and while deficits probably still bad since if growth better than anticipated, Trudeau will just spend more.  A lot depends on if we get any credit downgrades and how many.  No or only one credit downgrade, I doubt people will care too much about deficit.  Multiple ones then they might. 

Other is with childcare, dental care, and pharmacare, its very difficult to undo them once implemented.  First probably is a done deal while latter two if still in early stages may be possible or like what Ford do with prescription drugs under 25, may be scale back only to those who need it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some Atlas Forum exclusive data from that poll:

Skippy leads in all regions, even Quebec. Strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Weakest in Manitoba. Charest is strongest in MB & QC, Brown in Ontario, Lewis in MB.  
His support goes down by age (76% among under 35 to 58% for over 65)
More popular among women than men
More popular among college education, less among university educated

Also interesting, we asked how people to rate themselves on a 7 point scale from 1=very left to 7=very right (4 = in the middle)

The mean Conservative supporter is a 4.86
The mean Brown supporter is a 4.87
The mean Charest supporter is a 4.78
The mean Lewis supporter is a 5.53; and
The mean Poilievre supporter is a 4.97

The mean Canadian is a 3.57

All the patterns add up, but seeing Lewis at a paltry 6% is surprising (I would have expected higher). She's the only candidate so far to reach the donation cutoff to get authorized for the ballot. That's not to say she's the frontrunner of course, she's known to have a very strong donor network with evangelical groups/churches which is probably how she was able to raise funds so quickly, despite her actual support not being that high.

Social conservative candidates always poll worse than in reality. They maybe over represented in the party membership and/or are over represented in low response rate communities (e.g. certain ethnic and religious minorities)

[King of Kensington]

2. Poilievre isn't really an orthodox libertarian running as an unblemished Ayn Rand disciple, nor is he running as a kooky libertarian who thinks driver's licenses are fascism. In fact, he's not really a libertarian at all. His leaning into "small government/reduce bureaucracy" rhetoric is pretty consistent for Tories, even if he emphasizes it more. More than that, he's presenting his ideas as a solution to pocketbook issues, not a matter of ideological dogma. Poilievre argues that his policies are a solution to everyday challenges like inflation and housing, which might actually get people listening.

This is a good point.  At least he's tying his small government solutions to everyday concerns.  When Hudak ran he seemed to offered orthodox austerity just because "it's time to be bold" or something and didn't really make a case at all for why it was needed or would help everyday Ontarians' economic concerns.  Harris in contrast caught mood in '95 and was a very effective messenger.

[DC Al Fine]

People are saying don't underestimate Poilievre and making predictions for something 3 years ago is a fool's game, but I'm trying to imagine how he can make major gains in the 905, the Lower Mainland, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  I don't think there's a huge appetite for minimal government libertarianism in Canada.  Doing well in the Prairies and rural Ontario adds nothing to the CPC tally.  

I agree, it's certainly hard to imagine Poilievre as a change agent who can win over people who voted for Trudeau three times. His personal shortcomings aside, Patrick Brown is probably the most "natural" option to turn the GTA blue, especially this pivotal "Trudeau/Ford voter" bloc.

I think a reasonable case for Poilievre could be made, as follows:

1. The scheduled 2025 election will be exactly ten years after the Liberals entered power. By then, you'll most likely be dealing with a fatigued electorate looking for change - so the fundamental knowledge of Canadian politics that "governments don't get voted in, they get voted out" favours the Tories regardless. To boot, Poilievre would provide a stark contrast to Trudeau and Freeland, in much the same way Trudeau did to Harper, and Ford did to Wynne.

2. Poilievre isn't really an orthodox libertarian running as an unblemished Ayn Rand disciple, nor is he running as a kooky libertarian who thinks driver's licenses are fascism. In fact, he's not really a libertarian at all. His leaning into "small government/reduce bureaucracy" rhetoric is pretty consistent for Tories, even if he emphasizes it more. More than that, he's presenting his ideas as a solution to pocketbook issues, not a matter of ideological dogma. Poilievre argues that his policies are a solution to everyday challenges like inflation and housing, which might actually get people listening.

3. No matter how much or how little you appeal to swing voters, the base must be kept happy. They're your donors, your volunteers, your candidates, your caucus, and in the Tories' case, about one-thirds of the Canadian population. There are some in the Conservative base who dislike Poilievre, but as a recent Abacus poll shows, there are many more who dislike Charest. Compared to his strongest challenger, Poilievre is the least likely to deal with base atrophy - and not only does a divided party exude weakness and dry up the coffers, it forces the leader to run around putting out fires instead of building a campaign machine and taking on the current government.

This

I am once again begging Atlas to stop calling garden variety conservative talking points "libertarianism".