2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[mileslunn]

Agreed, gives Conservatives time to put together a platform and actually look like governing in waiting, not just an anger machine as now.  For Liberals, it really depends how things go.  Go well they benefit, go badly do not.  NDP I think is probably biggest loser as if goes well, Liberals get credit while go poorly they get blamed for enabling.

Its a bit of a myth that parties that are junior partners to governing parties in minority parliaments always do badly in the subsequent election. In fact its a very mixed bag. Everyone points to what happened to the Lib Dems in the UK under Nick Clegg in 2015 after 5 years of being in coalition with the Tories. But the fact is the Lib Dems and the Tories were never a good fit. The Lib Dems see themselves as a party of the left and as an "anti-Tory" party, so what Clegg did in 2010 was always seen as a bit of a deal with the devil. Plus Cameron brought in brutal austerity measures that were EXTREMELY unpopular with the people who had voted Lib Dem. It was the equivalent of what would likely happen if the NDP ever made a deal to put the Tories led by Poilievre into power. That would be political suicide.

This is a very different situation and polling has shown that the VAST majority of NDP voters are supportive of a deal with the Liberals - especially one where the NDP gets so many of its policy objectives addressed. Keep in mind that in Ontario in 1985 the NDP signed an accord that put the Ontario Liberals in power. It did not work out so badly for the NDP. In the subsequent 1987 election the Liberals won a majority but the NDP also gained ground and became the official opposition and then in 1990 when Ontarians wanted to throw out the Ontario Liberals - they gave the NDP under Bob Rae a majority!

For the NDP the enemy is invisibility and irrelevance and this deal makes Singh the centre of attention and he can point to how even with just 25 seats he was able to deliver a lot to his voters.

 

I think more issue is Liberals will have been in power for 10 years so some fatigue, but actually getting things like dental care and pharmacare probably popular.  Real elephant in room is does inflation remain high which is bad news or does it come down in which non-issue.

Likewise deficit is manageable now thanks to strong growth, but if deficit starts to spiral out of control then puts parties in tough spot.  Off course raising taxes on rich and corporations easy one, but those are not big revenue raisers so may need to bite bullet and raise GST and not sure if given choice between GST hike with more programs vs. keep GST at 5% and no new programs how public responds.

Liberal Democrats despite crashing didn't all go Labour though.  Southwestern UK mostly went Tory although Labour was very weak there while Tories strong second but if you look at constituencies like Yeovil, it appears most LibDem support swung to Tories not Labour.  Now in urban constituencies yes mostly Labour.

For junior partners, it is a mix in Europe, but more often than not they fall.  Certainly left wing ones as junior partner to right wing have usually ended badly.  One notable exception is SPD in Germany in 2017 who unlike in 2009 when took a hit, they managed to win in 2021 but fact Scholz was seen as continuation of Merkel as already finance minister probably helped a fair bit.

I think bigger problem for NDP is many might figure Liberals are now a progressive party so why not just vote Liberal anyways.  That would also be bad for Tories as they need somewhat of a split on left to win.

[adma]

Keep in mind that in Ontario in 1985 the NDP signed an accord that put the Ontario Liberals in power. It did not work out so badly for the NDP. In the subsequent 1987 election the Liberals won a majority but the NDP also gained ground and became the official opposition and then in 1990 when Ontarians wanted to throw out the Ontario Liberals - they gave the NDP under Bob Rae a majority!

Actually, while the NDP in 1987 gained ground in share, they lost ground in seats--however, w/the Tories losing even more ground, the NDP assumed official opposition, which was symbolically important w/regard to 1990...

[Benjamin Frank]

Business consultant Bobby Singh is running for the leadership. 

https://bobbysingh.ca/

He was one of those who tried to run for the leadership in 2020 but dropped out with the suspension of the campaign due to Covid.

Whether he actually makes the ballot is, of course, another matter.  I guess when it comes to finding out who met all the criteria to make the ballot, we won't know until Bobby Singhs.  (Because I'm sure nobody with the last name Singh has ever heard that one before.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Business consultant Bobby Singh is running for the leadership. 

https://bobbysingh.ca/

He was one of those who tried to run for the leadership in 2020 but dropped out with the suspension of the campaign due to Covid.

Whether he actually makes the ballot is, of course, another matter.  I guess when it comes to finding out who met all the criteria to make the ballot, we won't know until Bobby Singhs.  (Because I'm sure nobody with the last name Singh has ever heard that one before.)

Interestingly, he's one of two former candidates in Scarborough-Rouge Park running for the CPC leadership. What a random and strange statistic.

[Benjamin Frank]

Leona Alleslev makes 10

Leona Alleslev launches Conservative leadership bid website as race heats up
https://globalnews.ca/news/8706243/leona-alleslev-launches-conservative-leadership-bid-website/

[King of Kensington]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

And he's of course predicting Pierre Poilievre - a similar personality type - leads the Conservatives to a majority in 2025.  Given that I detest PP's politics, the fact that Breguet is wrong about pretty much everything makes me feel reassured. 

[Poirot]

Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris is supporting Jean Charest.

[Benjamin Frank]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

And he's of course predicting Pierre Poilievre - a similar personality type - leads the Conservatives to a majority in 2025.  Given that I detest PP's politics, the fact that Breguet is wrong about pretty much everything makes me feel reassured.  

I'm surprised more people haven't pointed out the, what I think are, obvious similarities betweeen Pierre Polievre and Jason Kenney.  Both of them are 'scorched earth' type politicians who seem to have a pathological need to demonize their opponents.  

If anything Kenney strikes me as being slightly more appealing than Polievre: he seems to be slightly smoother than Polievre (although Kenney's positive comments are usually mawkish), and was, at least in the federal cabinet, regarded as a capable minister with an interest in policy. Polievre in the federal cabinet seemed to be all about using his ministries for partisan political purposes.

I appreciate that Republicans in the U.S seem to be primarily interested in communications and not at all interested in governing, and, with Polievre, this sadly seems to be the same direction that many Canadian Conservatives also seem interested in going.

[Benjamin Frank]

Lawyer and 2021 York Centre candidate Joel Etienne is running for the leadership.

https://joeletienne.ca/

Whether he actually makes the ballot is, of course, another matter.  I guess when it comes to finding out who met all the criteria to make the ballot, we won't know until Joel Etienne.  (Alright, so it doesn't make sense, but I'll use it for any fringe candidate.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is shaping up to be a really weird leadership election, lol.

I have a slight feeling that this laundry list of no-hope Ontario candidates might actually hurt Poilievre. They'll all likely sign up new members in their neck of the woods - Singh in Scarborough, Etienne/Baber in North York, Alleslev in York Region, Aitchison in Muskoka and the north. These new members will not be committed CPC partisans.

Baber supporters will probably go Poilievre, no doubt. But the people Alleslev, Aitchison, Singh, Etienne sign up, by and large, won't be Poilievre supporters. I think Brown would be the biggest beneficiary.

[beesley]

When was the last time there were two federal leadership candidates from the same electoral district, I wonder?

[adma]

When was the last time there were two federal leadership candidates from the same electoral district, I wonder?

Not just that, but two *twice over*, both in the GTA (Baber & Etienne; Lewis & Singh, if one counts Lewis's '15 run)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I just realized something - the CPC and its predecessor parties have never had a Francophone leader. The two frontrunners of this race are both Francophones - Poilievre grew up in the west and is therefore more immersed in English, but he was raised by Franco parents and speaks pretty decent French.

[adma]

I just realized something - the CPC and its predecessor parties have never had a Francophone leader. The two frontrunners of this race are both Francophones - Poilievre grew up in the west and is therefore more immersed in English, but he was raised by Franco parents and speaks pretty decent French.

Well, if you're speaking of "predecessor parties", you cannot forget the matter of one Jean Charest, leader of the federal Progressive Conservatives in the 1997 election.

Plus, Brian Mulroney being Quebecker by birth, even if Irish-Canadian by origin--so his case is sort of the reverse of Poilievre being a Westerner w/Franco parents...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I just realized something - the CPC and its predecessor parties have never had a Francophone leader. The two frontrunners of this race are both Francophones - Poilievre grew up in the west and is therefore more immersed in English, but he was raised by Franco parents and speaks pretty decent French.

Well, if you're speaking of "predecessor parties", you cannot forget the matter of one Jean Charest, leader of the federal Progressive Conservatives in the 1997 election.

Plus, Brian Mulroney being Quebecker by birth, even if Irish-Canadian by origin--so his case is sort of the reverse of Poilievre being a Westerner w/Franco parents...

Lol, can't believe Charest himself escaped my mind. I often forget that the PCs were still around post-1993...so did many voters at the time too, I suppose.

I wouldn't call Mulroney a Francophone though. Fully fluent and immersed in French, yes, but both of his parents were Irish-Canadians and raised him speaking English.

[mileslunn]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

And he's of course predicting Pierre Poilievre - a similar personality type - leads the Conservatives to a majority in 2025.  Given that I detest PP's politics, the fact that Breguet is wrong about pretty much everything makes me feel reassured.  

I'm surprised more people haven't pointed out the, what I think are, obvious similarities betweeen Pierre Polievre and Jason Kenney.  Both of them are 'scorched earth' type politicians who seem to have a pathological need to demonize their opponents.  

If anything Kenney strikes me as being slightly more appealing than Polievre: he seems to be slightly smoother than Polievre (although Kenney's positive comments are usually mawkish), and was, at least in the federal cabinet, regarded as a capable minister with an interest in policy. Polievre in the federal cabinet seemed to be all about using his ministries for partisan political purposes.

I appreciate that Republicans in the U.S seem to be primarily interested in communications and not at all interested in governing, and, with Polievre, this sadly seems to be the same direction that many Canadian Conservatives also seem interested in going.

Seems both largely copying from GOP and I am just not sure if that type of politics has same market as in US.  Yes a market for this exists and no doubt often Canada despite our differences does tend to follow American trends to some degree.  Kenney is in a normally reliably conservative province yet trailing in polls and likely to lose to Notley next year so if this type of politics won't sell in Alberta, I fail to see how it will elsewhere.

On other hand, King of PEI and Houston of Nova Scotia are traditional Red Tories and both super popular in provinces federal Tories tend to struggle in.  Now yes being as red as those probably a bridge too far for base, but more something along lines of Doug Ford better as he is no Red Tory, but he does at least have some appeal in suburbs.  Now perhaps Poilievre will tone it down and just doing this as knows Tory base wants this.

Also possible by next election, anger with Liberals so strong it won't matter, but its a very risky proposition in my view.  I tend to think convincing those who voted for other parties to switch is a better strategy than trying to bring out non-voters as one few know exactly make up of this group and two most who stay home are habitual non-voters who are just apathetic and not really of any ideology, just find politics irrelevant and boring.

[King of Kensington]

And chasing the PPC vote only enhances the problem of not winning where needed.

[mileslunn]

And chasing the PPC vote only enhances the problem of not winning where needed.

He seems to be running on a libertarian like platform and I am not sure libertarianism has near enough support to win nationally.  Its probably true millennials more likely to hold libertarian viewpoints than boomers, but despite some backlash due to pandemic on rules, not sure there is the kind of ground swell on wanting to dramatically reduce government to take him to power.  I think arguing government has gotten a bit too big and will trim its excesses but not blow it up like Charest favours has potential.

[King of Kensington]

So is Poilievre more of a Mike Harris (a good salesman at a time where right-wing messaging resonates) or Tim Hudak (someone who is out of sync and insists on doubling down on a very unpopular economic program)?

[adma]

And chasing the PPC vote only enhances the problem of not winning where needed.

He seems to be running on a libertarian like platform and I am not sure libertarianism has near enough support to win nationally.  Its probably true millennials more likely to hold libertarian viewpoints than boomers, but despite some backlash due to pandemic on rules, not sure there is the kind of ground swell on wanting to dramatically reduce government to take him to power.  I think arguing government has gotten a bit too big and will trim its excesses but not blow it up like Charest favours has potential.

Re the "millennials more likely to hold libertarian viewpoints" argument:  I've heard it argued that millennials are more likely to conscientiously hold *big government* viewpoints; thus their support for Justin/Jagmeet or Bernie/AOC.  (Then again, there could be a cultural or even gender divide among said millennials: males swinging libertarian, females swinging big-government, etc.  And probably paralleling other gender-divide trends, including those involving higher education where there's been a significant "male drain" in recent times.  And of course, it's among the proverbial "aggrieved young males" that PPC has its deepest basin of support.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And chasing the PPC vote only enhances the problem of not winning where needed.

He seems to be running on a libertarian like platform and I am not sure libertarianism has near enough support to win nationally.  Its probably true millennials more likely to hold libertarian viewpoints than boomers, but despite some backlash due to pandemic on rules, not sure there is the kind of ground swell on wanting to dramatically reduce government to take him to power.  I think arguing government has gotten a bit too big and will trim its excesses but not blow it up like Charest favours has potential.

Re the "millennials more likely to hold libertarian viewpoints" argument:  I've heard it argued that millennials are more likely to conscientiously hold *big government* viewpoints; thus their support for Justin/Jagmeet or Bernie/AOC.  (Then again, there could be a cultural or even gender divide among said millennials: males swinging libertarian, females swinging big-government, etc.  And probably paralleling other gender-divide trends, including those involving higher education where there's been a significant "male drain" in recent times.  And of course, it's among the proverbial "aggrieved young males" that PPC has its deepest basin of support.)

In my experience, gender is a massive dividing line among Canadian millennials and zoomers, and one that Skippy would exacerbate. I think the small number of women under 35 who vote Tory would only get smaller with him as leader, but I can see a lot of men under 35 who don't normally vote Tory supporting him.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Speaking of Skippy, he's pushing very hard on crypto. Certainly a...novel strategy.

It tracks with his libertarian/populist tendencies, and would attract people who don't necessarily already vote CPC, let alone hold a membership. But it's a pretty big promise he's making. Cryptocurrencies are still very volatile and speculative, using it as currency simply doesn't make sense.

I mean, if two people want to do a voluntary transaction using bitcoin or whatever else, I don't really have a problem with that in theory. But the use of crypto for commercial purposes is impractical at this point, and I'm not sure how serious Pierre is about this.

[adma]

In my experience, gender is a massive dividing line among Canadian millennials and zoomers, and one that Skippy would exacerbate. I think the small number of women under 35 who vote Tory would only get smaller with him as leader, but I can see a lot of men under 35 who don't normally vote Tory supporting him.

And I'm also wondering whether impressions of greater libertarian tendencies among younger people might at times reflect the gender of those offering such impressions (sometimes, political forums and Twitter can seem like a bit of a boy's club).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

In my experience, gender is a massive dividing line among Canadian millennials and zoomers, and one that Skippy would exacerbate. I think the small number of women under 35 who vote Tory would only get smaller with him as leader, but I can see a lot of men under 35 who don't normally vote Tory supporting him.

And I'm also wondering whether impressions of greater libertarian tendencies among younger people might at times reflect the gender of those offering such impressions (sometimes, political forums and Twitter can seem like a bit of a boy's club).

I think that's a part of it, "young libertarian men" are probably one of the most vocal political subgroups - of course, ideological libertarians are known to be vocal, but not numerous. But I wasn't really referring to Canpoli twitter (which is what I imagine the eighth circle of hell is like). Even in more apolitical spaces, I think this difference can be seen. Anecdotally, the women I know tend to be a lot more supportive of COVID measures, while men tend to be a bit more dismissive/annoyed.

Hopefully COVID won't be an issue in 2025, but if Poilievre's the leader, there will be a clear divide on the old liberty vs security divide. I think the Canadian psyche tends to favour security, so I'm not sure Poilievre can have broad, general appeal. But if he does become the next Prime Minister of Canada, I think one of the groups that would put someone like him over the top will be a certain cohort of young men who aren't traditionally conservative, but have a more libertarian outlook.

[DC Al Fine]

Libertarian is a clunky word to describe what Poillievre is doing. It conjures up images of that guy who turned himself blue from eating sliver and Gary Johnson being booed for supporting drivers licenses. Besides "get the government out of _______" or "scrap the _______ tax" have been bog standard conservative talking points for decades. It's hardly a uniquely libertarian thing.

I'd work backwards from Laddicus' point: Poillievre is trying to appeal to young people, particularly younger men because he (or his staff) feel they have been underserved by other parties/factions and could be won over. Therefore he talks about making it easier to build homes, or use crypto because younger men like those things and they work with his existing political identity/base.