2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[adma]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs. 

Kind of fulfilling Andrew Coyne's point from not so long back...

"Moreover, while the Liberals, as the party of power and therefore of cabinet posts, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing so much as hatred of the Grits. Which may explain why the party’s leading lights so often look and sound like campus Conservatives."


 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

[Benjamin Frank]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs. 

Kind of fulfilling Andrew Coyne's point from not so long back...

"Moreover, while the Liberals, as the party of power and therefore of cabinet posts, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing so much as hatred of the Grits. Which may explain why the party’s leading lights so often look and sound like campus Conservatives."


 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Over 30 Conservative M.Ps were previously political staffers, but a good number of them also had jobs outside of politics.

[mileslunn]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs. 

Kind of fulfilling Andrew Coyne's point from not so long back...

"Moreover, while the Liberals, as the party of power and therefore of cabinet posts, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing so much as hatred of the Grits. Which may explain why the party’s leading lights so often look and sound like campus Conservatives."


 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Generally true although in Alberta prior to 2015, PCs were party that got a lot of top individuals, many who weren't even very conservative but ran there as they were party expected to win.

Ontario PCs in 2018 actually had a pretty strong slate, but being in the lead in the polls for over 2 years probably helped a lot.  Federal Liberal slate in 2015 was pretty weak compared to past for this reason.  I think main thing is party has to look like it can win before strong ones sign up as many accomplished individuals want to serve country not be stuck in opposition forever.

[Oryxslayer]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs. 

Kind of fulfilling Andrew Coyne's point from not so long back...

"Moreover, while the Liberals, as the party of power and therefore of cabinet posts, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing so much as hatred of the Grits. Which may explain why the party’s leading lights so often look and sound like campus Conservatives."


 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Generally true although in Alberta prior to 2015, PCs were party that got a lot of top individuals, many who weren't even very conservative but ran there as they were party expected to win.

Ontario PCs in 2018 actually had a pretty strong slate, but being in the lead in the polls for over 2 years probably helped a lot.  Federal Liberal slate in 2015 was pretty weak compared to past for this reason.  I think main thing is party has to look like it can win before strong ones sign up as many accomplished individuals want to serve country not be stuck in opposition forever.

Chiming in on this point that there was a bunch of ink split last year over how the Federal Liberals were poaching anyone who could be considered a 'star' and the Tories got the candidates who were happy to run while the party lost. So there is just a better crop 'out there' for non-Liberals.

[Benjamin Frank]

Pierre has the persona of a campus Conservative fixated on "owning" libs.  

Kind of fulfilling Andrew Coyne's point from not so long back...

"Moreover, while the Liberals, as the party of power and therefore of cabinet posts, have always been able to recruit individuals with a record of accomplishment in other fields, the Conservatives tend to get stuck with the lifers, people who have never done anything but partisan politics and are motivated by nothing so much as hatred of the Grits. Which may explain why the party’s leading lights so often look and sound like campus Conservatives."


 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Generally true although in Alberta prior to 2015, PCs were party that got a lot of top individuals, many who weren't even very conservative but ran there as they were party expected to win.

Ontario PCs in 2018 actually had a pretty strong slate, but being in the lead in the polls for over 2 years probably helped a lot.  Federal Liberal slate in 2015 was pretty weak compared to past for this reason.  I think main thing is party has to look like it can win before strong ones sign up as many accomplished individuals want to serve country not be stuck in opposition forever.

The Liberals ran a strong to very strong slate in 2015.  They didn't all work out (like Jody Wilson Raybould - not that she was the problem - and, say, Andrew Leslie) but as was said at the time, while Tom Mulcair and the NDP were out-hustling the Liberals in the House of Commons, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were out organizing the NDP in the ridings.

[Benjamin Frank]

These are the Conservative M.Ps who were previously political staffers.

1.Mark Strahl, career political staffer, son of M.P Chuck Strahl
2.Brad Vis, also was a consultant for a consulting firm.
3.Damien Kurek, also was a farmer and oil and gas sector worker
4.Laila Goodridge, also was a construction company health and safety administrator
5.Shannon Stubbs, career political staffer
6.Tim Uppal, also a bank residential mortgage manager
7.Matt Jeneroux, also was a federal civil servant
8.Garnett Genuis, career political staffer
9.Dane Lloyd, career civilian political staffer, also an army reserve lieutenant
10.Greg McLean, also was a chartered investment manager
11.Stephanie Kusie, also was a diplomat
12.Tom Kmiec, also was a registrar
13.Ron Liepert, also a journalist and communications consultant
14.Romemarie Falk, also a social worker
15.Cathay Wagnatall, also an athletic director and print company co-owner
16.Warren Steinley, career senior political staffer (Sask Party director of research) but played senior amateur hockey
17.Andrew Scheer, briefly an insurance company office clerk
18.Candice Bergen, career political staffer
19.Raquel Dancho, career political staffer
20.Pierre Polievre, briefly a Magna corp Public Relations staffer
21.Shelby Kramp Neuman, but held seemingly every other job in existence (financial advisor, instructor, diplomat and municipal councilor)
22.Jamie Schmale, also a CHUM radio news director
23.Adam Chambers, also a lawyer and businessperson
24.Dan Muys, also a communications and public relations firm owner
25.Tony Baldinelli, also a Niagara Parks manager of communications and stakeholder relations
26.John Nater, also a federal civil servant
27.Karen Vecchio, also a restaurant owner and manager
28.Lianne Rood, also a potato farmer
29.Joel Godin, also a communications firm president
30.Luc Berthold, also a newspaper editor
31.Rick Perkins, also a retail wine and spirits chain store owner
32.John Williamson, also a National Post editorialist and so-called Canadian Taxpayer's Federation president (basically a career politician)

So, only around 9 were career political staffers, but they - Andrew Scheer, Candice Bergen and Pierre Polievre - clearly have an outsized influence on the party.

[beesley]

These are the Conservative M.Ps who were previously political staffers.

1.Mark Strahl, career political staffer, son of M.P Chuck Strahl
2.Brad Vis, also was a consultant for a consulting firm.
3.Damien Kurek, also was a farmer and oil and gas sector worker
4.Laila Goodridge, also was a construction company health and safety administrator
5.Shannon Stubbs, career political staffer
6.Tim Uppal, also a bank residential mortgage manager
7.Matt Jeneroux, also was a federal civil servant
8.Garnett Genuis, career political staffer
9.Dane Lloyd, career civilian political staffer, also an army reserve lieutenant
10.Greg McLean, also was a chartered investment manager
11.Stephanie Kusie, also was a diplomat
12.Tom Kmiec, also was a registrar
13.Ron Liepert, also a journalist and communications consultant
14.Romemarie Falk, also a social worker
15.Cathay Wagnatall, also an athletic director and print company co-owner
16.Warren Steinley, career senior political staffer (Sask Party director of research) but played senior amateur hockey
17.Andrew Scheer, briefly an insurance company office clerk
18.Candice Bergen, career political staffer
19.Raquel Dancho, career political staffer
20.Pierre Polievre, briefly a Magna corp Public Relations staffer
21.Shelby Kramp Neuman, but held seemingly every other job in existence (financial advisor, instructor, diplomat and municipal councilor)
22.Jamie Schmale, also a CHUM radio news director
23.Adam Chambers, also a lawyer and businessperson
24.Dan Muys, also a communications and public relations firm owner
25.Tony Baldinelli, also a Niagara Parks manager of communications and stakeholder relations
26.John Nater, also a federal civil servant
27.Karen Vecchio, also a restaurant owner and manager
28.Lianne Rood, also a potato farmer
29.Joel Godin, also a communications firm president
30.Luc Berthold, also a newspaper editor
31.Rick Perkins, also a retail wine and spirits chain store owner
32.John Williamson, also a National Post editorialist and so-called Canadian Taxpayer's Federation president (basically a career politician)

So, only around 9 were career political staffers, but they - Andrew Scheer, Candice Bergen and Pierre Polievre - clearly have an outsized influence on the party.

I've always thought CPC MPs with lots of real world experience not conducive to being strong political performers - like Rob Morrison - seem to get sidelined, when they might have the makings of decent ministers.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1490115382157398030

[mileslunn]

It is Poilievre's to lose for Tory leadership race, but I don't think his rhetoric will go over well.  Most are for freedom, who isn't.  But we take a very different view than Poilievre does.  We take view we are part of a larger society and government is there for things individuals cannot do on their own and also to ensure others aren't harmed.  His sounds very libertarian and that might go over well in US, but I think would be a tough sell in Canada.

Perhaps he is hoping much like Thatcher in 1979, Mike Harris in 1995, there is a big enough backlash against big government people ready for radical change, but not sure that is the case.  Trudeau may be more left wing than past PMs, but I don't think he has gone so far left you are seeing a massive backlash, at least not amongst centrist voters.  Sure the right hates him far more than they hated Chretien or Martin, but the Conservatives have that group locked up anyways.

Still Liberals would be wise not to get complacent as surprises happen.  He is very beatable but could beat Liberals if they got too arrogant.  Liberals need to avoid doing what Theresa May did in 2017 where she assumed Corbyn was so extreme so could waltz to victory yet in end barely won.  Still there is loads of material in attack ads and if chosen Liberals should much like Harper did roll them out right away, not wait until writ dropped.  I also think if Trudeau decides not to run again, Liberals might want to chose someone more centrist like Champagne vs. someone on left like Freeland.  And maybe even convince a few Red Tories to cross the floor, although not sure any would, but should try. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

No surprise that Poilievre is running, he's basically functioned as the de facto leader of the CPC since the 2019 election defeat. The leadership is his to lose - keep in mind, 2020 was MacKay's to lose, and while Bernier wasn't an obvious frontrunner in 2017, he did consistently pull ahead of Scheer in the polls and donations. There's enough time for his star to burn out, but it's very hard to see anyone else in caucus who could genuinely challenge Poilievre.

Deltell could have been a formidable opponent if he were more well-known outside Quebec, but Quebec alone won't win him the leadership. Bernier managed to break out of the Quebec trap in 2017, but he was...unique. Deltell is just a boring old guy with typical Conservative ideas, I don't see him getting much traction.

Unless Ambrose jumps in, it's hard to think of anyone who could seriously challenge Poilievre. Maybe Michelle Rempel Garner, who is more moderate on social issues, but her appeal is similar to Poilievre's, so she's fishing out the same pond. There are some dark horses like Melissa Lantsman, James Moore, Eric Duncan and Lisa Raitt, but Poilievre is an institution among Tory voters, dark horses don't usually beat institutions. Leslyn Lewis could once again shore up the religious right vote, but that will probably benefit Poilievre downballot.

So yeah, as of right now, PP is the guy to beat, and a tough one to beat at that.

[King of Kensington]

Perhaps he is hoping much like Thatcher in 1979, Mike Harris in 1995, there is a big enough backlash against big government people ready for radical change, but not sure that is the case.  Trudeau may be more left wing than past PMs, but I don't think he has gone so far left you are seeing a massive backlash, at least not amongst centrist voters.  Sure the right hates him far more than they hated Chretien or Martin, but the Conservatives have that group locked up anyways.

The LPC shift leftward under Trudeau has not at all hurt them with the professional class, as they've shifted leftward too both culturally and on economic issues. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'd caution against the notion that Poilievre is simply too right-wing to win a general election though. The closest parallel to Pierre Poilievre in recent Canadian history might be Mike Harris (except Harris had private-sector experience, so more credibility on that front), and whatever you think about Mike Harris, he was a winner. Ginning up the existing pool of right-wing voters, while letting the Liberals bleed votes out of fatigue, might not be the worst strategy.

I think O'Toole's moderate hero act was a bit much, and the next CPC leader should be a little bit more confident in taking more conservative stances. However, Poilievre's style might be a little too much. I think the CPC needs a Stephen Harper type figure, someone who can fire up movement conservatives but in a more calm, less polarizing style so that moderates can feel more comfortable backing them, or at least not running to the Libs. But the idea that Poilievre is a give-away to the Liberals is probably a little naive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could Raquel Dancho be a future CPC party leader?

[mileslunn]

I'd caution against the notion that Poilievre is simply too right-wing to win a general election though. The closest parallel to Pierre Poilievre in recent Canadian history might be Mike Harris (except Harris had private-sector experience, so more credibility on that front), and whatever you think about Mike Harris, he was a winner. Ginning up the existing pool of right-wing voters, while letting the Liberals bleed votes out of fatigue, might not be the worst strategy.

I think O'Toole's moderate hero act was a bit much, and the next CPC leader should be a little bit more confident in taking more conservative stances. However, Poilievre's style might be a little too much. I think the CPC needs a Stephen Harper type figure, someone who can fire up movement conservatives but in a more calm, less polarizing style so that moderates can feel more comfortable backing them, or at least not running to the Libs. But the idea that Poilievre is a give-away to the Liberals is probably a little naive.

Agreed.  I think Poilievre is a turn off to many, but Liberals would be silly to write him off.

[mileslunn]

Could Raquel Dancho be a future CPC party leader?

Absolutely only in early 30s, so in a decade or so for sure.  She is 10 years younger than Jacinda Ardern and 5 younger than Sanna Marin and former very popular, latter more mixed.  I believe Sebastian Kurz though was her age when he became Austrian chancellor.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Just listened to Poilievre's announcement speech. I lost count of how many times he said "free" or mentioned "freedom", but I guess that's the theme for his leadership run.

Yeah, I think he's setting the right tone, at least for the CPC leadership. It's the kind of thing I could see energizing and mobilizing the base. His language of "smaller government = bigger people" struck me as very Reagan-esque, so he's definitely going for that movement conservative kind of lane.

Apart from not touching religious/social conservative themes (I think even a right-wing bulldog like him can realize that ain't gonna fly in today's Canada), a lot of his language seemed very similar to what you could imagine Mitt Romney saying. Very fiscally conservative, and heavy on the American-like theme of freedom. I'm not sure it's gonna work with the general public, but as far as the CPC base goes, it seems to be the right tone.

God, I'm really hoping for an upset. Pierre Poilievre is good at politics, because that's literally all he's done in his life. But this kind of professional politician with little experience beyond partisan activism also tends to be terrible at actually running a government.

[Benjamin Frank]

I've always thought CPC MPs with lots of real world experience not conducive to being strong political performers - like Rob Morrison - seem to get sidelined, when they might have the makings of decent ministers.

Oh sure.  There are quite a number of fairly impressive Conservative M.Ps. Just to name a few in the West: Todd Doherty, John Barlow, Ron Liepert, Tim Uppal, Randy Hoback, Kelly Block, Marty Morantz and Raquel Dancho (even though she was a career political staffer.) 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I've always thought CPC MPs with lots of real world experience not conducive to being strong political performers - like Rob Morrison - seem to get sidelined, when they might have the makings of decent ministers.

Oh sure.  There are quite a number of fairly impressive Conservative M.Ps. Just to name a few in the West: Todd Doherty, John Barlow, Ron Liepert, Tim Uppal, Randy Hoback, Kelly Block, Marty Morantz and Raquel Dancho (even though she was a career political staffer.)  

Yeah, there really is some talent within the CPC (far, far less than the LPC, but it's there). Harper himself had a pretty impressive history, having played a pretty big role in the early foundations of Reform (he left after disagreeing with Manning on the party's vision).

In 2017, Scheer really stuck out to me as an MP with very little to show for himself other than having been elected speaker, which of course is hardly an impressive role in the Canadian system. It was surprising to me at the time that he was the CPC's choice. O'Toole has a somewhat interesting background, but the new presumptive frontrunner is another career politician.

To be fair, Trudeau didn't exactly have an impressive resume either, apart from having the right father. Certainly nothing compared to what people like Freeland or even Champagne and Anand bring to the table. Nor does Singh have a particularly impressive resume, he was really a small-scale lawyer before becoming an NDP MPP. But it seems to be that in today's environment, "qualifications" beyond politics don't really matter all that much.

[Benjamin Frank]

Not mentioned on this board, but obviously directly and indirectly related, Kevin Falcon won the British Columbia provincial Liberal Party leadership.  The Provincial Liberals, for those who don't know, aren't connected to the Federal Liberals, but are a coalition of Liberal and Conservative 'free enterprisers' that goes back under three names to 1945 and has governed British Columbia for most of the time since then (not to say that these coalitions were all the same ideologically.)  

Coalition from 1945-1952
Social Credit from 1952-1991
Liberal 1996 (or so) to present

Not to get off topic, but the main battle within these coalitions was over urban/rural.  The more urban based parties, the Coalition and the Liberals, are more of a pro big business/attract foreign investment and socially liberal party, while the more rural based Social Credit was primarily concerned with the interests of small business. Not surprisingly, they were far more populist and also more socially conservative.

Anyway, Kevin Falcon was a B.C Liberal MLA from 2001-2013 and strikes me as being quite similar to Pierre Polievre.  He was a hyper partisan flamethrower, having somewhat made a name for himself prior to first getting elected as one of those concerned about then NDP Premier Glen Clark's 1996 'fudge-it budget.'  Yet, totally dismissing Gordon Campbell's similar 2005 'fudge-it budget.'  And even more so dismissing concerns over the 2009 'fudge-it budget' which then led to Premier Gordon Campbell after the election supporting the HST after saying in the campaign that he had no interest in bringing it in provincially (I personally thought it was much better policy than the provincial sales tax and was one of the 9% of British Columbians who supported Gordon Campbell before he resigned.)

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2010/07/12/FudgeBudget/

Both of them were/are hard right wing, and for both of them, their primary non political background was in communications.

Kevin Falcon, similar to Pierre Polievre, is also a nerdy glasses wearing 'four eyes' whose tough guy alpha male persona seems to be a serious need to compensate.

Anyway, Falcon, who left provincial politics in 2013 rather than run under Premier Christy Clark, and also clearly to make a lot of money in the private sector, has come back, and to me anyway, unlike the supposed Pierre Polievre 2.0, seems to be something of a genuine Kevin Falcon 2.0.  While he's obviously still a partisan, he seems far more relaxed and seems to have moderated his policy positions.  Maybe this is something Pierre Polievre should learn from.


To add briefly: B.C Liberal Premier Christy Clark patterned her government as an attempt to throwback to Social Credit.  She was primarily (or solely) concerned with natural gas development and more than infrequently invoked the Social Credit Premier from 1952-1972, WAC Bennett.  However, as has been discussed here before, the demographics of B.C are now heavily in favor of the urban areas, and her not only lack of interest in urban British Columbia, but her outright attempts to annoy urban British Columbians in order to, I guess, 'own the urbans' to curry favor with rural British Columbians, was not appreciated in the urban areas.

Her successor as Liberal leader, Andrew Wilkinson, was the stereotype of the out of touch pro (foreign) investment big business elitist.

The NDP clearly are going to attempt to paint Kevin Falcon as Andrew Wilkinson 2.0, and very likely as the twin of Pierre Polievre as well, and they have a lot of historical material to do both, but I'm not sure it's going to be as successful as they seem to be thinking it will be.

[Benjamin Frank]

On the B.C Liberal leadership race itself.  It seems that for whatever reason, the B.C Liberals did not release the results of the ballot right after they were counted, but put everything out all at once.  Kind of ruined the fun of the day for me anyway.

Kevin Falcon, who as I said above, I think has kind of morphed from a Conservative to a 'blue Liberal' led on the first ballot with around 47% of the vote. (or points actually since all ridings were assigned 100 points.)

Indigenous but hard right wing northern rural MLA Ellis Ross came second with 27% of the vote.  He clearly was the leading candidate of the Conservative wing of the party.

3rd place was Vancouver MLA Michael Lee with around 12% of the vote. Michael Lee was clearly the candidate of the 'red Liberals.'  Lee came in second on the first ballot in the 2018 leadership race with around 22% of the points.

I think his drop in support is mostly reflective of many 'red Liberals' in B.C now supporting the provincial NDP.

The remaining votes/points were split between Vancouver Municipal political activist Gavin Dew at 5% who I think tried to straddle the line between red and blue Liberals by speaking in vague generalities, and who was accused of using the leadership race to raise his profile for the upcoming Vancouver municipal election, Val Litwin the former Executive Director of the B.C Chamber of Commerce at 5% who I thought was a hardline 'red liberal' (he's said he'll leave the party if Kevin Falcon won the leadership), Kelowna area MLA Renee Merrifield at 3%, who I thought was a seemingly nice but fairly flakey right leaning 'new age' type, i.e one of those that believes in 'vaccine choice.'  (To be fair to her, she's also been a successful corporate executive) and Stan Sipos at 1%, a Trump type populist and property developer who had been a champion race car driver.

The race ended with three candidates remaining on the 5th ballot, with Kevin Falcon up to 52%, Ellis Ross at 34% and Michael Lee at 14%.  A bit surprising in that, since it was a preferential ballot, I would have thought that more of the Val Litwin voters would have given their second choice to Michael Lee.

I would say of the three Liberal leadership races since Gordon Campbell, they've all been won by 'blue Liberals' (even if Kevin Falcon still is a federal Conservative, which he might no longer be) over both the Conservative (though in 2018 Dianne Watts was clearly a 'Red Tory') and over the 'Red Liberal.'

The top three candidates in those races were
2011
1.Christy Clark, Blue Liberal 42%
2.Kevin Falcon, Conservative 30%
3.George Abbott, Red Liberal 28%

2018
1.Andrew Wilkinson, Blue Liberal 33%
2.Dianne Watts, Conservative 35%
3.Michael Lee, Red Liberal 32%

2022
1.Kevin Falcon, Blue Liberal 52%
2.Ellis Ross, Conservative 34%
3.Michael Lee, Red Liberal 14%

[adma]

I'd caution against the notion that Poilievre is simply too right-wing to win a general election though. The closest parallel to Pierre Poilievre in recent Canadian history might be Mike Harris (except Harris had private-sector experience, so more credibility on that front), and whatever you think about Mike Harris, he was a winner. Ginning up the existing pool of right-wing voters, while letting the Liberals bleed votes out of fatigue, might not be the worst strategy.

Actually, *the* closest too-right-wing-to-win parallel in recent Canadian history is Rob Ford as Toronto Mayor in '10.  (Doug Ford as Premier in '18 was more a matter of coasting on fumes and infrastructure already in place upon Patrick Brown's abrupt departure.)

Even Harris wasn't necessarily "too right wing"--his party still had Big Blue Machine good will floating about it going into '95.  Any cast of "unelectability" had more to do w/their preceding '87-95 3rd party slumber and the reflected inglory of the federal PC implosion and rise of Reform in '93.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'd caution against the notion that Poilievre is simply too right-wing to win a general election though. The closest parallel to Pierre Poilievre in recent Canadian history might be Mike Harris (except Harris had private-sector experience, so more credibility on that front), and whatever you think about Mike Harris, he was a winner. Ginning up the existing pool of right-wing voters, while letting the Liberals bleed votes out of fatigue, might not be the worst strategy.

Actually, *the* closest too-right-wing-to-win parallel in recent Canadian history is Rob Ford as Toronto Mayor in '10.  (Doug Ford as Premier in '18 was more a matter of coasting on fumes and infrastructure already in place upon Patrick Brown's abrupt departure.)

Even Harris wasn't necessarily "too right wing"--his party still had Big Blue Machine good will floating about it going into '95.  Any cast of "unelectability" had more to do w/their preceding '87-95 3rd party slumber and the reflected inglory of the federal PC implosion and rise of Reform in '93.

Harris was still backed by the Big Blue Machine, but said machine lost its power after Bill Davis Left. Let's not forget, in 1987 and 1990, the Tories finished in a rather embarassing third place. Harris rode an anti-NDP wave on his "common sense revolution" rhetoric, which was pretty different from what the likes of Bill Davis won on.

[King of Kensington]

B.C Liberal Premier Christy Clark patterned her government as an attempt to throwback to Social Credit.  She was primarily (or solely) concerned with natural gas development and more than infrequently invoked the Social Credit Premier from 1952-1972, WAC Bennett.  However, as has been discussed here before, the demographics of B.C are now heavily in favor of the urban areas, and her not only lack of interest in urban British Columbia, but her outright attempts to annoy urban British Columbians in order to, I guess, 'own the urbans' to curry favor with rural British Columbians, was not appreciated in the urban areas.

Most hilarious about that was that she (initially) represented the very urbane, culturally liberal "Brahmin" seat of Vancouver-Point Grey.  But she only took the seat by a hair in a 2011 by-election and then she lost it in the general election the Liberals won and she had to go to the interior to get a seat.  The 2013 election foreshadowed the breakdown of the old "free enterprise vs. socialists" polarization in BC.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As of 7:00 PM on Feb 5, based on a CBC article, Poilievre already has the following endorsements:

Dan Albas.
Michael Barrett.
John Barlow.
James Bezan.
Michael Cooper.
Todd Doherty.
Marilyn Gladu.
Michael Kram.
Melissa Lantsman.
Philip Lawrence.
Jamie Schmale.
Jake Stewart.
Corey Tochor.
Ryan Williams.
Bob Zimmer.

No real geographic pattern with these people, ranging from suburban Toronto to rural Alberta. One major exception of note though - no Quebecers. As I suspected, the QC caucus isn't too keen on Poilievre.

[adma]

I'd caution against the notion that Poilievre is simply too right-wing to win a general election though. The closest parallel to Pierre Poilievre in recent Canadian history might be Mike Harris (except Harris had private-sector experience, so more credibility on that front), and whatever you think about Mike Harris, he was a winner. Ginning up the existing pool of right-wing voters, while letting the Liberals bleed votes out of fatigue, might not be the worst strategy.

Actually, *the* closest too-right-wing-to-win parallel in recent Canadian history is Rob Ford as Toronto Mayor in '10.  (Doug Ford as Premier in '18 was more a matter of coasting on fumes and infrastructure already in place upon Patrick Brown's abrupt departure.)

Even Harris wasn't necessarily "too right wing"--his party still had Big Blue Machine good will floating about it going into '95.  Any cast of "unelectability" had more to do w/their preceding '87-95 3rd party slumber and the reflected inglory of the federal PC implosion and rise of Reform in '93.

Harris was still backed by the Big Blue Machine, but said machine lost its power after Bill Davis Left. Let's not forget, in 1987 and 1990, the Tories finished in a rather embarassing third place. Harris rode an anti-NDP wave on his "common sense revolution" rhetoric, which was pretty different from what the likes of Bill Davis won on.

1987 *was* a catastrophe, but one might argue that 1990 under Harris wasn't a bad salvage-job outcome and a reasonable foundation for what was to come in '95.  And whatever the rhetoric, the time-honoured Ontario PC brand momentarily assuaged the fears of those wary of "redneck Reformers"--though as it became clear over the course of the Harris regime that they meant what they said, the moderates sat on their hands or migrated away.

Also don't forget Harper in '04 and going into '06 when it comes to the "too right-wing to win a general election" pigeonhole.