2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Benjamin Frank]

Early polling suggests Skippy will get the crazies back into the Tory fold, but has no room to grow amongst blue Liberals. Charest's numbers among blue Liberals are slightly better, but not particularly encouraging.

I think Tories realistically need Liberal unpopularity to be high enough if they want to unite various sides and I don't see that at this point.  By nature more Canadians lean towards Liberals than Tories so all things equal, Liberals have natural advantage.  Its why over past century, Liberals have spent 2/3 of time in government and Tories 1/3 and usually Liberal time in office is quite a bit longer than Tory ones.  History would suggest we are a long ways from change.  If last as long as Chretien/Martin, then change would happen in 2028.  If as long as Pearson/Trudeau then not until 2036 or if as long as King/St. Laurent not until 2037.  Note I doubt it takes until 2036 or 2037 for Tories to win but just saying if you look at history, if Liberals were to lose next election it would be shortest time in office.

Yes if we look at how long most Tory ones are different story as for Mulroney and Harper it would be in 2024 so right around when next election happens and for Diefenbaker it would have been 2021 and 2020 for RB Bennett. 

By same token, Laurier is last PM to win four elections in a row (Trudeau sr, did win four but only three in a row, lost to Joe Clark then won in 1980) so that is one thing Tories have in their favour but my guess is Freeland not Trudeau will be Liberal leader next election.

The Liberals did win 5 majorities in a row from 1935-1957 under King/St.Laurent.

From 1935-1984 the Liberals were the government for all but approximately 7 years, and from 1922-1984 the Liberals were the government for all but approximately 12 years.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PeterMacKay/status/1502805646428758016

[Benjamin Frank]

 According to wiki, a business person from Saskatchewan named Joseph Borgault, the President and Co-General Manager of Tilage Tools and the President of "Canadians for Truth" entered the Conservative leadership race on March 9.

https://www.josephbourgault.com/about

[MaxQue]

According to wiki, a business person from Saskatchewan named Joseph Borgault, the President and Co-General Manager of Tilage Tools and the President of "Canadians for Truth" entered the Conservative leadership race on March 9.

https://www.josephbourgault.com/about

The 'truth' seems to be that if you believe in God enough and pray a lot, God will give you immunity against COVID. I really cannot see him being approved as a candidate by the party.

[Central Lake]

For picking up additional support and seats, urban - rural trends/ metropolitan - non-metropolitans trends I wanted to discuss Franco Canadians outside of Quebec. I moved to Canada at age 11 from Sri Lanka in 2011 so my knowledge of historical political patterns is quite limited. However, from my limited knowledge, I understand Tories and French Canadians historically have a very poor relationship.

Today French Canadians outside of Quebec are strongly attached to the Liberal party. How realistic is it for Conservatives to gain among rural French speaking Canadians outside of Quebec? We have seen instances of demographics strongly attached to a left-leaning party suddenly swing to a right-leaning party catching many by surprise. Such as the Red Wall in the UK going from Labour to the Tories. Such as the rural Rio Grande Valley going from Democrat to Republican.

So where would you place (more rural) LPC voting French Canadians outside of Quebec
1. Franco-Canadians are culturally progressive like rural Vermont, rural Massachusetts and it is implausible for them ever voting Conservative.
2. Franco-Canadians are strongly attached to the LPC and it is implausible for them to ever vote Conservative.
3. Franco-Canadians are strongly attached to the LPC and they swinging right is only possible after twenty years from now.
4. With a lot of effort Franco-Canadians may swing right within the next five years.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For picking up additional support and seats, urban - rural trends/ metropolitan - non-metropolitans trends I wanted to discuss Franco Canadians outside of Quebec. I moved to Canada at age 11 in 2011 so my knowledge of historical political patterns is quite limited. However, from my limited knowledge, I understand Tories and French Canadians historically have a very poor relationship.

Today French Canadians outside of Quebec are strongly attached to the Liberal party. How realistic is it for Conservatives to gain among rural French speaking Canadians outside of Quebec? We have seen instances of demographics strongly attached to a left-leaning party suddenly swing to a right-leaning party catching many by surprise. Such as the Red Wall in the UK going from Labour to the Tories.

So where would you place LPC voting French Canadians outside of Quebec
1. Franco-Canadians are culturally progressive like rural Vermont, rural Massachusetts and it is implausible for them ever voting Conservative.
2. Franco-Canadians are strongly attached to the LPC and it is implausible for them to ever vote Conservative.
3. Franco-Canadians are strongly attached to the LPC and they swinging right is only possible after twenty years from now.
4. With a lot of effort Franco-Canadians may swing right within the next five years.

My experience with Francos outside of Quebec has mostly been Franco-Ontarians in the Ottawa area who are basically the worst possible demographic for the Tories. They're attached to the LPC, tend to be socially progressive, and are mostly either from a lower socio-economic background or work for the government. Rural Franco-Ontarians might be more culturally conservative and amenable to the Tories, but even then they're significantly less so than the rest of rural Ontario. Just look at Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, an LPC-voting Franco-majority rural riding, compared to its uber-Tory anglo counterparts in Eastern Ontario.

In any case, this is not a bloc of voters the Tories should really focus much on winning over. They're a majority in a few Ontario and NB ridings and can swing elections in a handful of other ridings in those provinces, as well as one or two in Manitoba and Nova Scotia. But in general, we're talking about a very small slice of the electorate. Non-Quebec Francophones make up about 3% of the Canadian population.

[adma]

My experience with Francos outside of Quebec has mostly been Franco-Ontarians in the Ottawa area who are basically the worst possible demographic for the Tories. They're attached to the LPC, tend to be socially progressive, and are mostly either from a lower socio-economic background or work for the government. Rural Franco-Ontarians might be more culturally conservative and amenable to the Tories, but even then they're significantly less so than the rest of rural Ontario. Just look at Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, an LPC-voting Franco-majority rural riding, compared to its uber-Tory anglo counterparts in Eastern Ontario.

In any case, this is not a bloc of voters the Tories should really focus much on winning over. They're a majority in a few Ontario and NB ridings and can swing elections in a handful of other ridings in those provinces, as well as one or two in Manitoba and Nova Scotia. But in general, we're talking about a very small slice of the electorate. Non-Quebec Francophones make up about 3% of the Canadian population.

I think that Franco-Ottawans (at least those of the "Vanier" variety) are an exceptional case--it'd be like viewing Franco-Quebec through the prism of a Quebec Solidaire stronghold.

As far as "winning over" goes; well, if you're thinking in terms of something monolithic a la the Jewish electorate in the '00s or the Chinese electorate in the '10s (though the latter reneged in '21), that's out of the question.  However, an incremental "sufficient numbers" strategy is not out of the question, and indeed has been in place for some time now--the SDSG Conservative monolith being reinforced by Franco-Cornwall "in sufficient numbers", to take one case.  Or how a lot of Prairie towns with substantial Franco/Metis populations are now Conservative--maybe 60% Conservative vs 80% in the rest of the riding; but, still, Conservative...

[Hatman 🍁]

Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My experience with Francos outside of Quebec has mostly been Franco-Ontarians in the Ottawa area who are basically the worst possible demographic for the Tories. They're attached to the LPC, tend to be socially progressive, and are mostly either from a lower socio-economic background or work for the government. Rural Franco-Ontarians might be more culturally conservative and amenable to the Tories, but even then they're significantly less so than the rest of rural Ontario. Just look at Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, an LPC-voting Franco-majority rural riding, compared to its uber-Tory anglo counterparts in Eastern Ontario.

In any case, this is not a bloc of voters the Tories should really focus much on winning over. They're a majority in a few Ontario and NB ridings and can swing elections in a handful of other ridings in those provinces, as well as one or two in Manitoba and Nova Scotia. But in general, we're talking about a very small slice of the electorate. Non-Quebec Francophones make up about 3% of the Canadian population.

I think that Franco-Ottawans (at least those of the "Vanier" variety) are an exceptional case--it'd be like viewing Franco-Quebec through the prism of a Quebec Solidaire stronghold.

As far as "winning over" goes; well, if you're thinking in terms of something monolithic a la the Jewish electorate in the '00s or the Chinese electorate in the '10s (though the latter reneged in '21), that's out of the question.  However, an incremental "sufficient numbers" strategy is not out of the question, and indeed has been in place for some time now--the SDSG Conservative monolith being reinforced by Franco-Cornwall "in sufficient numbers", to take one case.  Or how a lot of Prairie towns with substantial Franco/Metis populations are now Conservative--maybe 60% Conservative vs 80% in the rest of the riding; but, still, Conservative...

This is true, though it's worth keeping in mind that in some cases, like in the prairies, their increasing conservatism is likely a function of assimilation, or at least the replacement of the French identity (closely associated with the LPC) by the prairie identity (closely associated with the CPC) among younger generations.

Evidently, non-Quebec Francophones are very diverse. Just in the Ottawa area, Vanier, Orleans, and Prescott-Russell represent three very different kinds of Francophone communities. Then you have mining communities in Northern Ontario, farming communities in the prairies, and the distinct Acadian culture out east. There's no single message to get all these blocs to get behind the Tories in particular (Liberals at least own the space of being the undisputed champions of bilingualism), and any individual bloc of non-Quebec Francos is far too small to make any real impact.

[Central Lake]

Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

Thanks Hatman. I was thinking along the lines of what adma described as incremental sufficient numbers. Grand Lake Miramichi is one riding where increasing the Conservative vote percentage among Franco-Canadians would be useful for holding the riding in the next election.

How would you characterize the possibility of increasing Conservative vote share among Franco-Canadians in Glengarry Prescott Russell and Northern Ontario. I am assuming it would be easier among rural Franco-Canadians.

[Central Lake]

https://twitter.com/SyntheticPol/status/1493872944501559300?cxt=HHwWiMCoyebhprsp...

Not so much the topline but the type of ridings that some CPC supporters want to/ think they can flip.

[Central Lake]

Northern Ontario generally swung towards the Conservatives. Kenora which was a CON hold went from 34% Conservative in 2019 to 42% Conservative in 2021. To flip some of the NDP held ridings in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, will probably entail a combination of strategies.

1. conventional WWC appeals
2. retaining O'Toole's blue collar strategy/adapting some things of Monte McNaughton
3. making overtures to the mining, forestry sectors?
4. do outreach and try to move needle in Indigenous communities
5. try to increase the CON vote share among Franco Canadians.

At least this is what I think.

[adma]

Northern Ontario generally swung towards the Conservatives. Kenora which was a CON hold went from 34% Conservative in 2019 to 42% Conservative in 2021. To flip some of the NDP held ridings in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, will probably entail a combination of strategies.

1. conventional WWC appeals
2. retaining O'Toole's blue collar strategy/adapting some things of Monte McNaughton
3. making overtures to the mining, forestry sectors?
4. do outreach and try to move needle in Indigenous communities
5. try to increase the CON vote share among Franco Canadians.

At least this is what I think.

Hate to be explicit about it, but some of the "strategy" (or at least outcomes) over time are more to do with a *suppressed* Indigenous vote--compare ridings like Kenora and Desnethe in 2015 to either 2011 or 2019 (not just party share, but overall turnout), and you'll know what I mean...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Few notes from Patrick Brown's announcement:

1. He's taking a more right-wing tone than we've come to associate him with, but perhaps it's not that surprising. He's inhabited different parts of the conservative spectrum during his career, but red tories (whether you use the old or new definition) are a relatively small part of the CPC base.

2. Connecting his 2018 scandals to "media-led cancel culture" is probably the best he can do in the given context, but if somehow Brown winds up as CPC leader, this kind of response will not win him favour with anyone who isn't already voting CPC.

3. Lot of focus on winning in the GTA, in diverse communities, etc. This is probably the strongest argument in favour of Patrick Brown, so no doubt he'll lean into it.

4. His French is atrocious.

Overall, his message doesn't seem too bad in the context of this leadership race, but he's not a very charismatic or popular messenger.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/SyntheticPol/status/1493872944501559300?cxt=HHwWiMCoyebhprsp...

Not so much the topline but the type of ridings that some CPC supporters want to/ think they can flip.

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

Thanks Hatman. I was thinking along the lines of what adma described as incremental sufficient numbers. Grand Lake Miramichi is one riding where increasing the Conservative vote percentage among Franco-Canadians would be useful for holding the riding in the next election.

How would you characterize the possibility of increasing Conservative vote share among Franco-Canadians in Glengarry Prescott Russell and Northern Ontario. I am assuming it would be easier among rural Franco-Canadians.

Pretty much the only chance the Tories have to win over Francos in this province right now is in GPR. Conservatives have not done well in Franco parts of Northern Ontario, except in the North Bay/Nipissing area which is more "rural" than your typical remote Francophone communities in the north. Of course, there is still some potential there, as Franco Northern Ontarians aren't exactly progressive liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1503453777856061441 Brass knuckles already.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/poilievre-promises-to-speed-up-wait-times-for-approving-foreign-credentials

Yep, feisty exchanges between PP and PB already, starting on the theme of immigration/diversity.

PB is a better messenger to those communities, but I did find it interesting that PP is announcing a policy to fast-track approval for foreign credentials, which is probably a better strategy to win over immigrant voters than the usual Tory strategy of making empty platitudes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

Thanks Hatman. I was thinking along the lines of what adma described as incremental sufficient numbers. Grand Lake Miramichi is one riding where increasing the Conservative vote percentage among Franco-Canadians would be useful for holding the riding in the next election.

How would you characterize the possibility of increasing Conservative vote share among Franco-Canadians in Glengarry Prescott Russell and Northern Ontario. I am assuming it would be easier among rural Franco-Canadians.

Pretty much the only chance the Tories have to win over Francos in this province right now is in GPR. Conservatives have not done well in Franco parts of Northern Ontario, except in the North Bay/Nipissing area which is more "rural" than your typical remote Francophone communities in the north. Of course, there is still some potential there, as Franco Northern Ontarians aren't exactly progressive liberals.

Even in GPR, you're talking about a population that's basically 50/50 Franco/Anglo, with a slight Franco majority. Considering how solidly blue Anglos in rural Eastern Ontario tend to be, one can reasonably assume that the Liberals have a healthy majority of the Francophone vote there.

[mileslunn]

There aren't enough Francophone ridings outside of Quebec to really make a big difference.  But on balance they lean Liberal but they are not monolithic. 

In New Brunswick, Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst are solidly Liberal but Madawaska-Restigouche can go Conservative under right leader but more often than not goes Liberal.  Latter two have a lot of seasonal workers and high unemployment so probably why Tories did poorly there, but considering how strong a second place Scheer and O'Toole had in Cape Breton Island and Rural Newfoundland which are similar economically, maybe there is some potential, but probably not worth wasting a lot of resources on those two.

In Ontario, its a mix.  Ottawa-Vanier is pretty solidly Liberal but NDP has some pockets of support.  Orleans did go Liberal under Harper, but I believe since then has swung hard towards Liberals as more civil servants living there so probably out of reach.  Northern Ontario is Liberal/NDP mix, but Tories did do better than normal so may have some potential with a blue collar strategy.

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell tends to go Tory win they win as its largely rural but Liberals do much better there than in other rural ridings in Ontario so yes is winnable but much tougher than most rural ridings which they usually have a lock on.  Since 2000, both federally and provincially, its always backed the winner and last time it went for losing candidate at either level was 1999 provincial and back then urban/rural divide wasn't as strong as it is today as PCs won many GTA seats now out of reach and likewise Liberals were still strong in rural Southwestern Ontario, which is now their worst region. 

[King of Kensington]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

Yeah, he's one of the most insufferable people on Twitter.

[mileslunn]

As usual, Bryan Breguet is an idiot (I don't want to seem mean, but the man is an arrogant bully online, and is often, very, very wrong on things, and isn't willing to admit it). The Tories already have most of the rural ridings outside Quebec. And the ones they don't have are less "rural" and more "remote", which comes with it an entirely different political history. Granted, remote areas are trending more populist, which helps the Conservatives, especially with a weaker PPC. But they still need to do well in the 905, and that should still be their main target in every election. Can't win without it.

Yeah, he's one of the most insufferable people on Twitter.

I think if Tories dominated Atlantic Canada (still some rural ones there) swept rural Quebec and breakthrough in Northern Ontario, 905 belt wouldn't be as key but would still need to be competitive there.  Difference is with others splitting it evenly like Harper did in 2008 could work whereas without these need to sweep it like 2011.  That being said Harper in 2006 largely got shut out of the 905 belt and formed government, but a very weak minority.  So Tories may be able to get a weak minority without it, but certainly not a majority.

And with Poilievre being quite toxic unlike O'Toole, I think its majority or bust whereas I think had O'Toole won most seats, he could have gotten BQ support.  Charest probably could do same.  Brown is a tougher one as BQ obviously won't support him over his stance on Bill 21, but perhaps Liberals might be willing to prop him up until they get new leader.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

Thanks Hatman. I was thinking along the lines of what adma described as incremental sufficient numbers. Grand Lake Miramichi is one riding where increasing the Conservative vote percentage among Franco-Canadians would be useful for holding the riding in the next election.

How would you characterize the possibility of increasing Conservative vote share among Franco-Canadians in Glengarry Prescott Russell and Northern Ontario. I am assuming it would be easier among rural Franco-Canadians.

Pretty much the only chance the Tories have to win over Francos in this province right now is in GPR. Conservatives have not done well in Franco parts of Northern Ontario, except in the North Bay/Nipissing area which is more "rural" than your typical remote Francophone communities in the north. Of course, there is still some potential there, as Franco Northern Ontarians aren't exactly progressive liberals.

That map is taking a Trump 2016 approach to power which is bypassing the traditional must win states for the GOP such as VA/CO by winning the rust belt and making huge gains with WWC voters.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/alexboutilier/status/1499467745733365769

He's now officially in.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's interesting that Poilievre seems intent on a scorched earth strategy, despite seemingly being such a clear frontrunner.