2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Central Lake]

Are the Tasha/Charest people more likely to mark their ballots

4. Pierre Poilievre
5. Leslyn Lewis

Or
4. Leslyn Lewis
5. Pierre Poilievre

[Poirot]

Maybe if they are socially progressive and prefer a bilingual leader the first option. If they vote strategically against the front runner, the second option.

La Presse writes Stephen Harper wants a real conservative leader and will use his influence to stop Charest of becoming leader. Charest is too much to centre, like his position when he was Premier on a price on carbon and opposition to scrapping the gun registry. Harper still remembers during the campaign in 2008 Charest spoke against cuts for culture and dismantling the gun registry.
 
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2022-02-23/possible-candidature-de-jean-charest/stephen-harper-veut-un-vrai-conservateur-a-la-tete-du-parti.php

I don't know if it will end up like last time and Charest doesn't run.

Former mayor of Trois-Rivières and two time CPC candidate Yves Lévesque support Poilievre. Lévesque wants to run again next time. He thinks Charest's past could hurt, the anticorruption investigation has not been closed yet after 10 years.

[Benjamin Frank]

Jean Charest, Tasha Kheiriddin and Patrick Brown?

I don't know what all the dislike here for Patrick Brown is about, it seems like he's a pretty solid and well liked mayor of Brampton as far as I can tell, and the things about him prior to that are not verified and are highly debatable.  However, it's still a bit surprising and disappointing to see not a single current more progressive Conservative M.P is considering running.

Not that they are all necessarily more progressive, but they are generally regarded as more reflective anyway, I would have thought at least one of these would run:

1.Blake Richards
2.Randy Hoback
3.Michael Chong
4.Luc Berthold/Pierre Paul Hus
5.Rob Moore

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Jean Charest,  Tasha Kheiriddin and Patrick Brown?

I don't know what all the dislike here for Patrick Brown is about, it seems like he's a pretty solid and well liked mayor of Brampton as far as I can tell, and the things about him prior to that are not verified and are highly debatable.  However, it's still a bit surprising and disappointing to see not a single current more progressive Conservative M.P is considering running.

Not that they are all necessarily more progressive, but they are generally regarded as more reflective anyway, I would have thought at least one of these would run:

1.Blake Richards
2.Randy Hoback
3.Michael Chong
4.Luc Berthold/Pierre Paul Hus
5.Rob Moore

On the Patrick Brown thing, it's not so much that I dislike him as much as I just think he would be one of the worst options to unite the party.

Ontario is his home turf, he has a genuine connection to the province and more name recognition here than elsewhere. But he has bad blood with much of the Conservative movement in the province, and Ford's machine would try to stop him. The prairies and the BC interior won't back a carbon tax supporter, though Metro Vancouver Tories might be more open to it. Quebec would theoretically support a moderate tory like him...oh wait, he's a very vocal opponent of Bill 21. Even Quebecers who oppose Bill 21 tend not to like non-Quebecers sticking their noses in it. Atlantic Canada is typically where moderate Tories thrive, but that makes up only 9% of federal ridings, and therefore points in the leadership election.

The allegations aside, Brown also has the characteristics of a grifter. I'm not sure he is, people can change their views over time, but he went from being a solidly so-con MP under Harper to someone who hardly tolerated any so-con voices as PCPO leader. It's one thing to shift your views over time, it's another to change your fundamental views overnight

[King of Kensington]

There was a newspaper article suggesting a new party could be formed of conservatives more centrist and Liberals. I don't know how big blue Liberals represent. It could be people who would feel comfotrable with the old Progressive Conservative party who are now Liberals because they don't like the new Conservative party for its style or positions.

Such a party would be lucky to have the success of the Progressive Conservatives under Jean Charest and Joe Clark.

[Benjamin Frank]

Jean Charest,  Tasha Kheiriddin and Patrick Brown?

I don't know what all the dislike here for Patrick Brown is about, it seems like he's a pretty solid and well liked mayor of Brampton as far as I can tell, and the things about him prior to that are not verified and are highly debatable.  However, it's still a bit surprising and disappointing to see not a single current more progressive Conservative M.P is considering running.

Not that they are all necessarily more progressive, but they are generally regarded as more reflective anyway, I would have thought at least one of these would run:

1.Blake Richards
2.Randy Hoback
3.Michael Chong
4.Luc Berthold/Pierre Paul Hus
5.Rob Moore

On the Patrick Brown thing, it's not so much that I dislike him as much as I just think he would be one of the worst options to unite the party.

Ontario is his home turf, he has a genuine connection to the province and more name recognition here than elsewhere. But he has bad blood with much of the Conservative movement in the province, and Ford's machine would try to stop him. The prairies and the BC interior won't back a carbon tax supporter, though Metro Vancouver Tories might be more open to it. Quebec would theoretically support a moderate tory like him...oh wait, he's a very vocal opponent of Bill 21. Even Quebecers who oppose Bill 21 tend not to like non-Quebecers sticking their noses in it. Atlantic Canada is typically where moderate Tories thrive, but that makes up only 9% of federal ridings, and therefore points in the leadership election.

The allegations aside, Brown also has the characteristics of a grifter. I'm not sure he is, people can change their views over time, but he went from being a solidly so-con MP under Harper to someone who hardly tolerated any so-con voices as PCPO leader. It's one thing to shift your views over time, it's another to change your fundamental views overnight

Thanks for the explanation.  People here use the word 'grifter' far too freely, and some of this is just politics.

For instance, in 1964 George H W Bush ran for the U.S Senate in Texas against liberal Democratic incumbent Ralph Yarborough as a 'Goldwater Conservative.'

In 1966 he ran for the House of Representative as an establishment 'country club' southern Republican. He won and was reelected in 1968 unopposed.

In 1970, he ran for the U.S Senate in Texas again, but ran against conservative Democrat Lloyd Bentsen who defeated Yarborough in the Democratic Primary. This time, George H W Bush appealed to Democrats as being to the left of Bentsen.  

Edit to add: In this, I don't think the right term for these sorts of politicians is 'grifters.' On the T.V show 'Yes, Minister' there was an episode where it was Hacker who was trying to stop Sir Humphrey from accomplishing something: having the British publicly owned chemical manufacturing company produce propanol using 'metadioxin' (don't bother looking 'metadioxin' up, it doesn't exist.)  

Despite the jobs, voters in the riding where the plant that would produced it was located were concerned because there had been deaths in Italy when there was a breakdown of a proponol plant. However, 'metadioxin' was, in the episode, an inert compound.  Of course, Hacker found a way to block the plant from producing it.

The main point of the character's goals being inverted was, I think, to show how much easier it is for governments to stop things than to do things, however, in the episode, Sir Humphrey tells Hacker that Hacker knows there is no safety risk in producing the chemical only a political risk, and that only politicians who worry about 'climbing the greasy pole, worry about political risk.'

Humphrey asks Hacker: "Why must you climb the greasy pole?" And Hacker responds "Because it's there."

I think that is a much better term here than 'grifter.'

Patrick Brown, George H. W Bush, these sorts of 'career politicians' are 'greasy pole climbers.'

Yes Minister S02E4 The Greasy Pole
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5v4ri2

This is the only error I've found in the book version of Yes, Minister.  In the book, Hacker's educational background is described as 'M.S - Economics.'  Yet, when he is asked in the episode "what does inert mean?" - Metadioxin, unlike dioxin is completely inert - he doesn't know.  I initially studied economics with a B.S in mind rather than a B.A, and I still remember that 'inert' means 'non-reactive.' It's hard to believe Hacker, if he had studied any chemistry (or physics) at all, wouldn't have remembered that.

The pedantic Bernard Woolly replies "wouldn't 'ert a fly."

This is also the episode with the classic scene on 'how to discredit a report without reading it.'  

I'm sure the good politicians, lobbyists and activists have all memorized this scene.

[DC Al Fine]

Jean Charest,  Tasha Kheiriddin and Patrick Brown?

I don't know what all the dislike here for Patrick Brown is about, it seems like he's a pretty solid and well liked mayor of Brampton as far as I can tell, and the things about him prior to that are not verified and are highly debatable.  However, it's still a bit surprising and disappointing to see not a single current more progressive Conservative M.P is considering running.

Not that they are all necessarily more progressive, but they are generally regarded as more reflective anyway, I would have thought at least one of these would run:

1.Blake Richards
2.Randy Hoback
3.Michael Chong
4.Luc Berthold/Pierre Paul Hus
5.Rob Moore

On the Patrick Brown thing, it's not so much that I dislike him as much as I just think he would be one of the worst options to unite the party.

I have it on good authority that the women he got MeToo'd over were only a fraction of the women that could have MeToo'd him. That would come out over any campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

There was a newspaper article suggesting a new party could be formed of conservatives more centrist and Liberals. I don't know how big blue Liberals represent. It could be people who would feel comfotrable with the old Progressive Conservative party who are now Liberals because they don't like the new Conservative party for its style or positions.

Such a party would be lucky to have the success of the Progressive Conservatives under Jean Charest and Joe Clark.

I have a theory that the closest equivalent to the PC's and any potential successors isn't some European conservative party. It's Congress of the People and United Democratic Movement in South Africa.

Why?

COPE and UDM attracted the support of very online, often white, upper middle class types who didn't like the ANC's corruption and who found the DA too right wing, but all their actual supporters were impoverished Eastern Cape Xhosas

Likewise, the PC's or a potential successor will attract the support of online types who like the fiscal con-social prog approach, but its actual support base will be a bunch of Nova Scotia lobstermen who are neither fiscally conservative, nor socially progressive and support the party for entirely different reasons.

[DL]

It must be very difficult for all these Tories in Canada to figure out what stance to take on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the one hand many Tories have a visceral anti-Russian attitude dating back to the Cold War and on top of that the Prairie provinces have a huge number of Ukrainian-Canadians. BUT, these days its Trump and Fox News that determines what positions rightwing conservatives are supposed to take and the word from Foix News is to celebrate the Russian invasion of Ukraine and to be pro-Putin - so what will all those MAGA types in the CPC do now?

[Central Lake]

I might be projecting my views on others but I think in both Canada and the United States there is a gulf between grassroots conservatives and establishment conservatives when it comes to

right wing economics
natural security, foreign intervention, strong military
law and order, tough on crime

And as for law and order, and tough on crime, it is not just in context of the Freedom Convoy but in general and before 2022.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It must be very difficult for all these Tories in Canada to figure out what stance to take on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the one hand many Tories have a visceral anti-Russian attitude dating back to the Cold War and on top of that the Prairie provinces have a huge number of Ukrainian-Canadians. BUT, these days its Trump and Fox News that determines what positions rightwing conservatives are supposed to take and the word from Foix News is to celebrate the Russian invasion of Ukraine and to be pro-Putin - so what will all those MAGA types in the CPC do now?

I think (and hope) that the CPC, despite the worrying increase in MAGA elements, won't fall for the pro-Putin nonsense that the American right is eating up. One of the lasting legacies of the Harper government was his strong stance on Moscow, something the current government has continued. With Chrystia Freeland basically serving as co-prime minister - a Ukrainian-Canadian who was on the ground in the Ukrainian SSR in the 1980s as an independence activist - the current government will not change its opposition to Putin, so there's a threat that the CPC goes for blind contrarianism. But I don't see this happening for two reasons:

1. Stephen Harper is still a very important figure for most Conservatives, and his foreign policy views on Russia, China, Israel, Iran etc were broadly appealing to Conservatives of all types. Even Poilievre, known for being a bit of a loose cannon, is a Harperite at heart. We might see some cranks within the party like Cheryl Gallant drink up the MAGA kool-aid on Russia, but the broad majority of the caucus will not.

2. Ukrainian-Canadians are a large community who have a much stronger ethnic identity than many other early-20th century immigrants. They mostly live in the prairies and are therefore probably a bigger part of the CPC base than average. I can say anecdotally from having lived in Alberta for a few years that the connection to Ukraine is a big part of how westerners imagine their identity and culture. The CPC turning their backs on Ukrainian-Canadians would be like the LPC turning their backs on Acadians and Franco-Ontarians.

Frankly, I've seen more Russia apologism from the NDP (not the leadership of course, but the more far-left members like Niki Ashton and Svend Robinson). But now that Russia is effectively invading Ukraine, I think this kind of thing will be limited to hardcore tankies and some corners of the far-right, but without a voice in any mainstream Canadian party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Jean Charest,  Tasha Kheiriddin and Patrick Brown?

I don't know what all the dislike here for Patrick Brown is about, it seems like he's a pretty solid and well liked mayor of Brampton as far as I can tell, and the things about him prior to that are not verified and are highly debatable.  However, it's still a bit surprising and disappointing to see not a single current more progressive Conservative M.P is considering running.

Not that they are all necessarily more progressive, but they are generally regarded as more reflective anyway, I would have thought at least one of these would run:

1.Blake Richards
2.Randy Hoback
3.Michael Chong
4.Luc Berthold/Pierre Paul Hus
5.Rob Moore

On the Patrick Brown thing, it's not so much that I dislike him as much as I just think he would be one of the worst options to unite the party.

Ontario is his home turf, he has a genuine connection to the province and more name recognition here than elsewhere. But he has bad blood with much of the Conservative movement in the province, and Ford's machine would try to stop him. The prairies and the BC interior won't back a carbon tax supporter, though Metro Vancouver Tories might be more open to it. Quebec would theoretically support a moderate tory like him...oh wait, he's a very vocal opponent of Bill 21. Even Quebecers who oppose Bill 21 tend not to like non-Quebecers sticking their noses in it. Atlantic Canada is typically where moderate Tories thrive, but that makes up only 9% of federal ridings, and therefore points in the leadership election.

The allegations aside, Brown also has the characteristics of a grifter. I'm not sure he is, people can change their views over time, but he went from being a solidly so-con MP under Harper to someone who hardly tolerated any so-con voices as PCPO leader. It's one thing to shift your views over time, it's another to change your fundamental views overnight

Thanks for the explanation.  People here use the word 'grifter' far too freely, and some of this is just politics.

Didn't want to quote the whole thing, but I take your point on the 'grifter' thing.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Jean Charest,  Tasha Kheiriddin and Patrick Brown?

I don't know what all the dislike here for Patrick Brown is about, it seems like he's a pretty solid and well liked mayor of Brampton as far as I can tell, and the things about him prior to that are not verified and are highly debatable.  However, it's still a bit surprising and disappointing to see not a single current more progressive Conservative M.P is considering running.

Not that they are all necessarily more progressive, but they are generally regarded as more reflective anyway, I would have thought at least one of these would run:

1.Blake Richards
2.Randy Hoback
3.Michael Chong
4.Luc Berthold/Pierre Paul Hus
5.Rob Moore

On the Patrick Brown thing, it's not so much that I dislike him as much as I just think he would be one of the worst options to unite the party.

I have it on good authority that the women he got MeToo'd over were only a fraction of the women that could have MeToo'd him. That would come out over any campaign.

I guess we'll just have to take your word for it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. For all the reckoning brought about by the MeToo era, there's still a lot of secrecy in the world of politics, and usually when these kinds of rumours and allegations come out, there are more. Same with John Baird, none of it is public information but there have been rumours for years. It's probably the only reason he hasn't taken a stab at the leadership.

[DC Al Fine]

The last poll I saw; Putin had an 18% favourable rating among Republicans. Let's not let dislike of the GOP/Tories cloud our analysis.

[adma]

Frankly, I've seen more Russia apologism from the NDP (not the leadership of course, but the more far-left members like Niki Ashton and Svend Robinson). But now that Russia is effectively invading Ukraine, I think this kind of thing will be limited to hardcore tankies and some corners of the far-right, but without a voice in any mainstream Canadian party.

I'm not sure if it's "Russian apologism" per se from the NDP, so much as harping on the far-right element to Ukrainian nationalism, or Chrystia Freeland's familial connections to all of that.  A sort of pointing-to-Stepan-Bandera whataboutism...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

An eight-year long investigation into corruption allegations against Jean Charest have been closed.

[King of Kensington]

Sounds like Patrick Brown might be going for it.

https://twitter.com/ontarioisproud/status/1499121211279921159

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/now-is-the-wrong-time-patrick-brown-asks-freeland-to-hold-off-on-burden-of-carbon-tax-increase?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1646267280

[Benjamin Frank]

Conservatives release rules on leadership race.  Despite the headline, I think the last date the convention can be held is September 10, not that it will be held on September 10.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8655890/conservatives-leadership-september-otoole/

This is a victory for the opponents of Pierre Polievre as Polievre wanted the convention to be held by July the latest.

I gather this date is for just after Labour Day and for just before the sitting of the next Parliamentary session, however, for what it's worth, I would have suggested one month later as this is still during summer and most Canadians probably won't be paying attention. Leaving Covid aside, it's a bit odd for the Conservatives to complain about last years' late summer election only to hold their leadership race in late summer.

Michael Chong still expressing interest in running, as are Patrick Brown, Jean Charest and Peter MacKay.  Is this something of a 'Progressive Conservative' tag team?

[DL]

FYI, there is no “convention” members will vote by mail or online or whatever across the country. People will not convene anywhere like the olden days of delegated conventions

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Michael Chong still expressing interest in running, as are Patrick Brown, Jean Charest and Peter MacKay.  Is this something of a 'Progressive Conservative' tag team?

Honestly, might not be the worst strategy to have a decent number of 'PC' type Tories running, as it's a ranked ballot, and each candidate will bring in new people. But this can only work if 50%+ of the eventual CPC leadership voter pool is interested in having such a leader, which I would be pleasantly surprised by, but surprised nonetheless.

By the same token, Poilievre would be helped by someone like Lewis running. Many so-cons might not even bother voting if it's a Poilievre-Charest-Chong-Brown race, but Lewis would motivate them, and realistically they'd mostly rank Poilievre second.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/bloc-leader-slams-potential-jean-charest-conservative-bid-1.5801228

The fact that Quebec Tories are rallying behind Charest, and Blanchet is criticizing him before he even announces, suggests to me that Charest would be a pretty strong force in Quebec.

[Central Lake]

Just some advice or rule of thumb. Candidates in a conservative leadership race who utter the word moderate or say modern or modernize besides in the context of technology, or clothing fashion will be in big big trouble.

Jean Charest has many things going against him (guns carbon pricing etc.) But one thing going  in his favour is that from recent reports I have read he hasn't publicly implied or insinuated that ..... (some will disagree with my phrasing here) that current Conservative party supporters and voters are a problem, liability and are responsible for the general election defeats of 2019 and 2020.

Charest said "to have a national conservative party that is able to represent every part of Canada .. that is our responsibility to be that national political party' So it is kind of a vague statement and leaning onto geography.

My mind works in such a way that I was like every part of Canada could mean every province, so P.EI. is the only province with no conservative riding so a big priority is to win a riding in P.EI. /s

[DL]

Charest said "to have a national conservative party that is able to represent every part of Canada .. that is our responsibility to be that national political party' So it is kind of a vague statement and leaning onto geography.

My mind works in such a way that I was like every part of Canada could mean every province, so P.EI. is the only province with no conservative riding so a big priority is to win a riding in P.EI. /s

Or maybe what Charest means is that a national conservative party cannot keep writing off urban Canada. The vast majority of Canadians live in cities and right now the Tories have ZERO seats in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, almost nothing in Winnipeg, Ottawa, Hamilton, Halifax, are losing ground in Edmonton and have only a couple of very exurban seats on the fringes of the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver Areas. I can remember when the federal Tories were able to win seats in the middle of Toronto. maybe they need to figure out how to do that again.   

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/alexboutilier/status/1499467745733365769

[DC Al Fine]

We have our first random bid